| Date | Petit-déjeuner | Déjeuner | Dîner | Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pain tchapati,Pommes de terre bhaji,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Bombay duck,Cumin noir, Graines du jacquier et cravates sec,Pommes de terre bhaji, Lentilles bhaji | Riz,Œuf dur,Bombay duck | Jacquier,Firny,Dattes,Thé sans sucre |
| 31 | Pain tchapati,Firni(rice pudding),Thé sans sucre | Riz,Purée de pommes de terre,Épinard malabar,Papaye bhaji,Labra(Citrouille et graines du jacquier),Soupe aux lentilles | Riz,Purée de pommes de terre,Épinard malabar,Papaye bhaji,Labra(Citrouille et graines du jacquier) | Dattes,Thé sans sucre |
| 01 | Pain tchapati,Labra(Citrouilles et graines du jacquiet,Omelette,Thé sans sucre | Khichury,Œuf dur | Riz,Omelette, Soupe aux lentilles, Lait | Dattes,Thé sans sucre |
| 02 | Pain tchapati,Omelette,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Hilsa,Papaye bhaji,Soupe aux lentilles | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaye bhaji,Lait | Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre |
| 03 | Pain tchapati,Papaye bhaji,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Hilsa,Purée de pommes de terre,Courge amère | Riz,omelette,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles | Dattes,Thé sans sucre |
| 04 | Pain tchapati,Omelette,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Labra(Papaye,graines du jacquier),Pommes de terre,Courge amère | Riz,Labra(Papaye,graines du jacquier),Pommes de terre | Riz gonflé,Lait,Thé sans sucre |
| 05 | Pain tchapati,Labra(Papaye-graines du jacquier),Thé sans sucre | Riz,Gourde serpente,Soupe aux lentilles | Riz,Gourde serpente,Soupe aux lentilles | Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre |
Sunday, July 31, 2022
La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux
(29 juillet --- 5 août)
Saturday, July 30, 2022
IMF Assistance & Gradualism
Central Bank picks gradualist policy, |
Last week, International Monetary Fund formally disclosed that Bangladesh sought assistance from it. $4.5 billion worth assistance package may come from several fund facilities offered by the IMF. This is for the first time Bangladesh sought assistance from Sustainability and Resilience trust fund ,reserved for mitigating adverse challenges posed by climate-change,apart from Balance of Paymey support fund1.Earlier Finance minister had stressed that Bangladesh would not take loan from IMF if the conditions were not favorable.
Unprecedented inflationary pressure with rising import bills worsened by Ukraine war and record current account deficit prompted the government to seek such assistance. Though government projected the inflation rate below 7.5%,NGOs apprehend the inflation may cross the double digit figure, incapacitating further the cash-strapped government’s ability to spend.
Prior to IMF announcement, govt raised the policy rate by 50 points basis, raising the interest rate to 5.5 %. This will eventually curb the money flow,easing the inflation. The latest MPS also envisages to encourage import substitution industry through incentives.
As the policy rate is increased, lending rate of commercial banks should be raised accordingly. But govt is reluctant to raise the lending rate and willing to maintain the ongoing 3% spread between deposit rate and lending rate. Even a 1% increase in deposit rate will not offset the inflationary pressure. Moreover, ahead of election year when the government is poised to carry through projects that will create jobs,any increase in lending rate will be greeted with bitter reactions.
In key export markets of Bangladesh(USA,Canada,EU), central banks raised policy rates. This insinuates consumption in these countries may shrink in future, resulting in fewer orders. In addition, rising defense spending in these countries cuts spending on other sectors. That poses serious doubts about further obtaining assistance and funds for humanitarian grounds. Not only that domestic companies' borrowing from overseas also gets costlier.So it could be another stumbling block for the local industries that eye for foreign credit.
Falling demand in Occidental countries and rising interest rate is expected to improve current account deficit by reducing the import bill. But to stop Taka's depreciation, govt needs to do more. Bangladesh inked several strategic agreements with Middle Eastern countries. Why does Bangladesh not approach these countries to do some favors in this critical time? Bangladesh could propose them to accept Taka in exchange of oil or to defer the oil payments by half a year or a year at a discounted exchange rate. Similarly, Bangladesh could make request to other friendly countries to trade with Bangladesh in Taka. This growing demand for Taka could at least peg the Taka at some fixed value against major currencies.
Govt's past record in utilizing climate fund is not good. Anti corruption bodies published detail accounts about this. Luckily ,central bank is responsible for using the credit this time. But government is implementing the budget, so mismanagement of budget support fund still looms large.
Bangladesh’s internal revenue generation still hinges on indirect taxes. Tobacco and telecommunications are the key sources of indirect tax revenue2. Without increasing the tax revenue, this IMF support may come less handy at the end of the day. Public credit growth outweighs the private sector credit growth. Private sector is struggling to get credit. In this backdrop,how the government could attain MPS goal of employment generation through import substitution industry is indeed a puzzling one.
Notes And References:
- “IMF says It Is Ready To Support Bangladesh After Loan Request”, Business Standard, July 27,2022. For more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/imf-says-it-ready-support-bangladesh-after-loan-request-466422
- “Dosh Company Dilo Chollish Percent VAT(10 Companies Account For 40% VAT Payments)”,Jahangir Shah,Prothom Alo(P-13),July 27,2022
Saturday, July 23, 2022
La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux
(15 juillet --- 22 juillet)
| Date | Petit-déjeuner | Déjeuner | Dîner | Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Courge amère,Omelette,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Haricot vert,Bombay Duck,Soupe des lentilles | Pain chapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Haricot vert | Mangue,Nouilles,Thé sans sucre |
| 24 | Pain chapati,Haricot vert,Lait chaud,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Rita poisson,Gourde épineuse avec graines du jacquier et tige de l'amarante | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson | Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre |
| 25 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Tige de l'amarante avec pommes de terre et gourde épineuse,Poisson-barbe d'argent olive,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Cumin noir | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Papaye-Gourde épineuse,Cornichon à la Mangue | Riz gonflé, Thé sans sucre |
| 26 | Pain tchapati,Papaye et Gourde épineuse,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Calebasse gourde,Feuilles de l'amarante tige,Poisson perche grimpante | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante tige,Poisson perche grimpante | Mabolo,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre,Dattes |
| 27 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde calebasse, Omelette,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Épinard malabar,Perche grimpante | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Épinard malabar et Ruhi poisson,Lait et datte | Dattes,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre |
| 28 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Omelette,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Courge amère,Poisson-barbe d'olive argent | Pain tchapati,Poisson-barbe d'olive argent,Lait | Mabolo,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre,Dattes |
| 29 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi), Omelette,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Citrouilles, Soupe aux lentilles,alose à Gésier du fleuve Ganges, | Riz,Pommes de terre bhaji,alose à Gésier du fleuve Ganges | Jacquier,Firny,Thé sans sucre |
Friday, July 22, 2022
Weak Passport Belies Success III
Green passport earns a bad name |
Henley strong passport index has downgraded Bangladesh by one notch from its January ranking. In the latest passport index,Bangldesh is ranked 104th,behind Sri Lanka1. Soon after the latest index, South Africa has made changes in visa regulations applicable for Bangladeshis and Pakistanis after some nationals of the two countries without visa had been detained by South African authority for entering Lesotho,Swaziland using South African airports. From August 1,Bangladeshis and Pakistanis require transit Visas to enter these countries, which give Bangladeshis Visa free entry2. In April, Bangladeshi passport occupied 103 rd position among 116 countries for 2021 in Henley Strong Passport Index [This piece is just an extension to the piece I wrote April 09 this year]. In 2020, it held the same position. Despite the improvement from 108 to 103 in recent years, Bangladeshi passport remains one of the weakest passport (9th) in the world3. Meanwhile, corona, internal turbulence and war made many counties' score bad. So the improvement is not an improvement at all. In the meantime, US imposed sanctions on RAB and several security establishment officials for deterioration in law and order situation.[In April] Canada postponed its second home program, nationality through purchase of house, for two years as property prices soar up unprecedentedly because of foreign nationals' house buying spree in that country4.
Back in October last year I penned “Weak Passport Belies Success “ to highlight Henley’s then ranking of Bangladesh5. Sharing it again:
The weakening of our passport has been going on for the last seven years. In 2013,our passport was ranked at 85 in Henley Passport Index(HPI). In 2017,the green passport was slides down by 10 places. In 2019,its rank worsened further to 99.In 2020, it was ranked 101st. Perhaps not all the countries are buying our success stories8.
Recently, European Union published a list of asylum seekers in EU where they entered illegally by crossing the Mediterranean Sea. Bangladesh ranked second in the list.
This week Lafarge Holcim cement announced that it would sell its operations in Bangladesh.6
E-commerce debacle left a serious blot on reputation of the government. One after another e-commerce platform that follows multilevel marketing model failed to meet customers’ need and many simply swindled money. What could have been the success story of govt's digital economy turned out to be an embarrassing point for the government.
It has been reported that government might have avoided this incident had it been stricter to malpractices.
Meanwhile, remittances shows a downward spiral following a remarkable growth last year.
In September 2021-22,Bangladesh received remittances worth $1726.29 million whereas the sum was $2171.03 million in May this year7However, rising oil price could break the downward spiral as construction boom may resume in the Middle Eastern countries, riding on the high oil price.
Back in April this year,I wrote a piece titled “Falling Ranking,Fading Identity” in the wake of unrevised HPI. I would like to share some part of it again:
“Education is the area where we fall behind our neighbors. In Global Knowledge Index, Bangladesh held the lowest rank in South Asia. Its position was 112th among 138 countries.Even Pakistan and Nepal were placed ahead of us (Source: Daily Star, December 12 , 2020).
In Innovation Index, Bangladesh was far behind than its South Asian neighbors. Among the 131 economies, Bangladesh occupied 116th position. It perched on that position for three consecutive years (Source: The Financial Express, September 14, 2020).
In recent years, school drop out rate, number of child marriage have also increased. I cannot figure out how we can continue our achievements in economic and development sectors with such a sorry state in education and innovation.
What complicated the matter is the presence of three different streams of education. A greater section of the population are not at the same wavelength while reading a particular event or situation and are not behaving in the right way at a crucial occasion or circumstances.
Our 14 years of schooling is not as good as others. It is casting a shadow over our overseas development markets. In middle eastern countries where our nationals mostly took up the jobs of housemaid, drivers, agricultural workers etc , Bangladeshis find themselves in awkward situation for failing to communicate in a proper manner. It is affecting their livelihoods there. Many even fall victims to deception and cheating. In Kuwait a Bangladeshi MP in connivance with Kuwaiti officials ran a human trafficking network. Thousands of Bangladeshis were lured into their traps, losing millions of Taka and risking their lives. The issue remains a sore point in the relationship between two countries and engenders overseas employment of Bangladesh in Kuwait.
Reuters last year carried a report divulging dilapidated conditions of stranded Bangladeshis , victims of human trafficking, in Bosnian jungles.
Like those cheated Bangladeshis abroad, state of our health sector does not vouch safe for our economic success story. COVID-19 laid bare the anarchy going on in this sector. Fake screening program ran by some politically-blessed quarter alarmed us about quality of our health professionals. Poorly equipped hospitals and dearth of health professionals brought us foreign grant and support in thick and fast. To our dismay, we watched that oxygen system and 300 ventilators bought with foreign credit were locked in warehouses of Dhaka International Airport for ten months. They are meant to equip the public hospitals. Meanwhile, deteriorating condition at home led to ban flights towards countries from where most of our remittances come.
With great enthusiasm and effort, Bangladesh implements infrastructure and development projects, very few turn out to be beneficial in the end. However, same vigor and enthusiasm are not displayed while creating social institutions that aim to develop human resources at the grassroot level. Tribal nature of our politics , tendency to set a yeoman at every organization are widely seen as encumbrance to developing such institution. For the last three decades, a moribund growth has been being observed on institutions that work on youth, discrimination, literacy,digital divide, communal harmony,folklore,hygiene,rural-urban migration, inclusion of new technology, charity, music and culture. These institutions in the past played key roles in churning out quality nationals. It does not mean they have to depend on foreign fund for their operations. Community, individual and government should step in so that they can function without any trouble. COVID-19 bluntly laid it bare that our health system is not working and one fine morning we will discover, to our surprise, that our country becomes an unlivable prison. And HPI and QNI may coshare positions with other doomed countries.”8
Notes And References:
- “Dokshin Africae Notun Niyam: Transit Visa Lagbe Bangladeshider(Change In Regulations In South Africa: Bangladeshis Require Transit Visa)”, Jamuna News,July 22,2022. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_WHOp6u25E0
- “Bangladeshi Passport Again 9th Weakest In World”, Dhaka Tribune, July 20,2022. https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2022/07/20/bangladesh-passport-again-ninth-weakest-in-world
- “Bangladesh Ranks 103rd In Henley Passport Index2022”, Dhaka Tribune,April 04,2022. For more read at https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2022/01/12/bangladesh-ranks-103rd-in-henley-passport-index-2022
- “Videshider Kacchey Bari Bikri Bondho Korechhey Justin Trudeau'r Saraker(Canada: Trudeau Govt Halts Sale Of House To Foreigners”,BBC Bangla,April 07,2022. For more read at https://www.bbc.com/bengali/news-61028973
- “Weak Passport Belies Success”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,October 09,2021. For more read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2021/10/weak-passport-belies-success.html?m=1
- “Bangladesh Theke Babsha Gutiye Nichhey Lafarge HolCim(Lafarge Winds Down Bangladesh Operations)”,Sylhet Today 24,October 06,2021.For more read at https://www.sylhettoday24.news/news/details/Sylhet/125786?fbclid=IwAR07pXwOgCNECDjcN9NLpKVipVlTk52NR6VUGwNlqmHyz6aVWlFr89rzGhk
- Bangladesh Bank.
- “Falling Ranking,Fading Identity “,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com.April 19,2021.For more read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2021/04/falling-ranking-fading-identity.html?m=1
Sunday, July 17, 2022
La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux
(15 juillet --- 22 juillet)
| Date | Petit-déjeuner | Déjeuner | Dîner | Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pain tchapati,Papaye-Carotte-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Épinards du buffle, Ruhi poisson avec pommes de terre,Citrouilles-Papaye-Graines du jacquier,Soupe aux haricots mungo | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaya-Graines du jacquier- Citrouilles | Riz gonflé,Goyavier,Thé sans sucre |
| 17 | Pain tchapati,Pomme de terre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Haricot vert et Graines du jacquier avec sec Bummalo poisson,Ruhi poisson,Gourde calebasse curry,Soupe aux haricots mungo | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Vermicelles | Riz gonflé,Vermicelles,Thé sans sucre |
| 18 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde calebasse, Lait,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Citrouille,Épinards d'eau,Ruhi poisson,Soupe des lentilles | Nouilles | Goyavier,Concombre,Vermicelles,Riz gonflé |
| 19 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Ruhi poisson,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Amarante rouge,Haricot vert et pommes de terre,Orphie de l'eau douce | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Haricot vert et pommes de terre | Riz gonflé,Arachides,Thé sans sucre |
| 20 | Pain tchapati,Haricot vert et Pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Orphie de l'eau douce | Tchapati pain(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Ruhi poisson | Lait,Riz gonflé,Dattes |
| 21 | Pain tchapati,Papaye-Citrouille,Lait, Thé sans sucre | Riz,Œuf dur,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Gombo | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Œuf dur,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge | Dattes,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre |
| 22 | Pain tchapati,Gombo,Lait et Datte,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Épinards d'eau,Perche grimpante,Soupe des lentilles | Parota(fait par moi),Épinards d'eau et Perche grimpante | Datte,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre |
Friday, July 15, 2022
CA Deficit: How Worst It Could Be
High oil price and dollar-euro parity |
Events in Sri Lanka and the record current account deficit have pressed the panic button in Bangladesh. Despite repeated claims from the govt, rising fuel and commodity prices in the international market may further worsen the current account deficit. Last week,Bangladesh govt started a negotiation with IMF for a total credit of $4.5 billion for the next 3 years as budget assistance. Argument put forward for taking such a credit is that it bears low interest and it can be availed now before things turn into worse like Sri Lanka.
Despite a record inflow of remittances($900 million approx) in the week of Eid-ul-Azha,things have not improved much. Dollar market is still volatile and Bangladesh Bank regularly intervenes by selling US dollar. Current account deficit now stands at $15 billion. Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) requires a subsidy of $2 billion to meet the import need of gas and oil. Bangladesh’s export destinations are mired in crisis. Increase in US policy rates may curb the inflation in United States, but investment in US may take a hit, further worsening the job prospect in US and casting a shadow over export order.Former IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff anticipates a covid recovery in China may push up again the price of oil in international market1. If it happens,then there may be another blow to the inflation situation,tightening the consumer pockets of US consumer. In Europe, fall of euro against US dollar (appreciation of dollar against euro due to rise in policy rate in US) means our exporters will get less Taka against the same volume of exports to Europe. In addition, recession in Europe is more likely as investors would prefer America over Europe due to higher return on dollar there. And Europe will lose its competitiveness due to dollar euro parity and rising inflation at home. New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman fears the war in Ukraine may prolong to the winter as it is the best alternative for Russia to get some favorable outcome from this war2. Due to gas supply uncertainty, Europeans have to ration their available supply in this winter.Rising cost at home and harsh winter may push NATO to influence Ukraine to cut a compromising deal with Russia. That means a prolonged war in Europe coupled with rising oil prices cast shadow over our export earnings. As fuel prices may be higher,our import spending may also be higher. This means our Taka may depreciate further. And remember next year(end) is the election year. Years during,before and after election generally witness big depreciation (see table)3.
| Year | Exch.Rate(TK/$) |
|---|---|
| 1990-91 | 35.67 |
| 1991-92 | 38.15 |
| 1995-96 | 40.84 |
| 1996-97 | 42.70 |
| 2000-01 | 53.96 |
| 2001-02 | 57.44 |
| 2008-09 | 68.80 |
| 2009-10 | 69.18 |
Source:Bangladesh Economic Review 2019
As Monsoon is not over ,govt fears further flood across the country by August. If it happens, then it will have further pressure on food security programs,prompting government to increase its spending on food import.Moreover,rising oil price also means we have to increase spending on irrigation during winter. So falling remittances, rising import expenditures may further worsen our current account deficit.
Notes And References
- “Global Oil And Gas Prices Have Been Highly Volatile--- What Will Happen Next?”,Kenneth Rogoff,July 5,2022,The Guardian. For more read https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/05/global-oil-gas-prices-supply-demand-us-europe
- “Ukraine War Is About To Enter A Dangerous Phase”,Thomas L. Friedman,July 12,2022,New York Times. For more read at https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/ukraine-russia-putin.html
- Bangladesh Economic Review 2019
Sunday, July 10, 2022
La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux
(09 juillet---15 juillet)
| Date | Petit-déjeuner | Déjeuner | Dîner | Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 | Pain tchapati,Gourde serpent et concombre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Épinards malabar,Tête de Ruhi poisson dans soupe aux haricots mungo et pommes de terre,Anchois gangétique | Riz,Épinards malabar,Tête de Ruhi poisson dans soupe aux haricots mungo et pommes de terre,Anchois gangétique | Mangue,Thé sans sucre |
| 10 | Pain,Papaye et pommes de terre,Mangue, Thé sans sucre | Khichri,Omelette, Papaye et pomme de terre | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Lait sucré | Thé sans sucre, un bun(un type de pain que je n'ai pas réussi à faire ) |
| 11 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Œuf poché, Papaye et pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Purée de pommes de terre,Rita poisson | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson | Thé sans sucre |
| 12 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Rita poisson,Papaye-Gourde épineuse,Purée des pommes de terre,Poulet,Soupe des lentilles | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde épineuse avec Papaye | Riz battu dans lait avec Mangue et Aloe Vera,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre |
| 13 | Pain tchapati,Papaye et Gourde épineuse,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Gourde calebasse,Épinards du buffle,Rita poisson | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Épinards du buffle et Rita poisson | Riz gonflé,Nouilles |
| 14 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde calebasse, Thé sans sucre | Riz,Épinards d'eau,Gourde calebasse, Luffa,Wallagu attu poisson | Pain chapati(fait par moi),Wallagu attu | Riz gonflé et lait chaud,Thé sans sucre |
| 15 | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Wallagu attu curry,Thé sans sucre | Pilaf,Papaye-Pommes de terre-Farine de maïs,Épinards malabar,Concombre,Œuf dur,Purée de pommes de terre | Pilaf,Papaye et haricot vert,Épinards malabar | Riz gonflé,Lait chaud,Thé sans sucre |
Saturday, July 9, 2022
Frequent Power Cut Is Back
Frequent power cut is back |
Govt has recently decided to forbid all lighting decorations of key public and private installations . The decision complements earlier decision of obligatory closure of all shops after 8 p.m. Working hour cut is also on the table. This is an indication how soaring oil and gas prices in the international market make a dent in the govt pockets. Any price hike of fuel and gas in international market will increase the cost on subsidy and energy price, which will have a domino effect on everything.
Already across the country frequent power cut is back,invoking memories of bygone era. But government is not willing to allocate more subsidy to power generation. So loadshedding is the only solution.
In 2012-13,govt provided a total subsidy of TK 427.616 billion and oil subsidy accounts TK 135.58 billion. For three consecutive years,no subsidy was provided to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) as oil prices in international market were lower.Last year, govt provided a total of TK 530 billion subsidy on oil and energy1. Of this,TK 280 billion was spent in the power sector, while TK 250 billion was spent on import of LNG. This year govt allotted a total subsidy of TK 840 billion and TK 160 billion was allotted to fertilizer production. Spike in LNG prices and rapid fall of Taka against US dollar augments the subsidy spending many folds. The current situation calls for a BPC subsidy of $2 billion2.To deal with the issue,government has concentrated on fertilizer production as ensuring food security is getting top priority when a famine-like situation looms large. Meanwhile, more gas for fertilizer amid LNG supply shortage means less gas for power generation. Inflation battered people are not ready for paying more. Govt decided to reduce consumption during this summer and Monsoon time when demand for electricity is higher than any other time of the year. And the result is more loadshedding. The decision is also coincided with a moment when the country's current account deficit reached $15 billion,a record for the country,and a sharp drop in remittances which worked as cushion against widening trade deficit. And from July 12, govt is about to start negotiations with IMF for a credit of $4.5 billion as budget assistance. Time is ripe for taking measures of austerity. Govt hopes that by September situation will improve and its drastic measures may reduce electricity consumption by 2000 MW. I personally think people are in no mood for paying more prices for electricity and gas.Loadshedding at measured intervals for the moment is the only viable solution.
But what the govt is doing with this saved resources is no less important matter.Ahead of election year,we see that the govt is in spending mood. Signs are there. For instance, govt is mulling building culverts in part of the embankment cut by villagers to let the flood water go. If it continues to throw the money into gutters without ensuring any checks and balances then there is no meaning of this austerity.
Notes And References:
- Bangladesh Economic Review 2019
- “Govt Mulls Short Work Hours,Work From Home To Contain Energy Crisis”,Eyamin Sajid,Business Standard,July 07,2022. For more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/govt-mulls-short-work-hours-work-home-contain-energy-crisis-455182
Monday, July 4, 2022
La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux
(01 juillet --- 08 juillet)
Selon un reportage, dans le cadre de l'Aïd al Kabir,le gouvernement a interdit la moto dans les rues qui relient les villes.
Selon un reportage,collision entre deux avions à l'aéroport de Dhaka a causé dégâts dans ailes d'un appareil.
Selon un reportage,incendie a ravagé une usine à Narayanganj.Personne n'y est blessée.
Selon un reportage, déficit courant de Bangladesh est parvenu $17,23 milliards, un record pour le pays. Le déficit commercial a franchi $31 milliards. Bangladesh va bientôt commencer pourparlers avec FMI pour crédit de $4,5 milliards comme assistance budgétaire.
Selon un reportage, Comme le prix de carburant grimpe dans le marché international, le gouvernement a interdit éclairage dans les bâtiments à travers du pays.Subventions du gouvernement vers carburant et gaz sont parvenues $2 milliards.
| Date | Petit-déjeuner | Déjeuner | Dîner | Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 | Pain tchapati,Papaye et pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Tarpon indo-pacifique poisson,Gourde épineuse avec graines du jacquier et sec Ruban et sec Bombil, Gourde blanche,Soupe de lentilles,Cornichon à la mangue | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Tarpon indo-pacifique poisson | Goyavier,Ananas,Thé sans sucre |
| 03 | Pain tchapati,Papaye et pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Wallagu attu poisson,Épinard malabar,Soupe de lentilles,un plat végétarien préparé avec Papaye ,Citrouille et Pommes de terre | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),un plat végétarien préparé avec Papaye ,Citrouille et Pommes de terre | Gombo,Riz battu dans l'eau avec dattes,Thé sans sucre |
| 04 | Pain tchapati,un plat végétarien préparé avec Papaye,Citrouille et pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Courge amère,Feuille de amarante tige,Petit ScribbledGoby-Mola-Batasio poisson curry,un plat végétarien préparé avec Papaye,Citrouille et pommes de terre | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuille de amarante tige,Petit ScribbledGoby-Mola-Batasio poisson curry,un plat végétarien préparé avec Papaye,Citrouille et pommes de terre | Goyavier,Dattes,Riz battu dans l'eau chaud avec dattes,Thé sans sucre |
| 05 | Pain tchapati,Purée de pommes de terre | Riz,Épinards d'eau,Rita poisson,Papaye et graines du jacquier | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson et Papaye-HaricotVert-Pommes de terre | Concombre,Dattes |
| 06 | Parota,Papaye-HaricotVert-Pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Courge amère,Rita poisson,Concombre avec graines du jacquier,Haricot vert,Soupe de lentilles | Nouilles, Mangue | Mangue((demie),Nouilles, Thé sans sucre |
| 07 | Pain tchapati,Haricot vert,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Calebasse gourde,Rita poisson | Riz gonflé,Rita poisson,Calebasse gourde | Graines du jacquier,Mangue,Datte,Khir de riz,Riz gonflé, Nouilles, Thé sans sucre |
| 08 | Pain tchapati,Calebasse gourde,Thé sans sucre | Riz,Gourde serpent et concombre,Sprat du gange poisson,Loche guntea poisson | Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde serpent et concombre | Mangue,Khir de riz,Riz gonflé, Thé sans sucre |
Friday, July 1, 2022
Woe Called External Debt
As farcical election doubles external debt, |
Growing budget deficit has led the govt to seek assistance from IMF and World Bank. A news report says government is about to start a negotiation, scheduled to be held from July 12, with IMF for a soft loan of $4.5 billion amid a current account deficit of $15 billion. Govt is also planning to borrow interest free $1 billion from the World Bank. If the talk ends successfully then Bangladesh will be able to get $5.5 billion to check the budget deficit1.
This is a clear indication that macroeconomic management is having some troubles. Govt put the blame squarely on the ongoing war on Ukraine and COVID-19. But the govt takes three assistance packages (if the current negotiation becomes successful) from IMF during its tenure. Back in 2012,govt took assistance from Extended Credit Facility.In 2020, it took another assistance as part of COVID-19 assistance program. So macroeconomic management is not in good shape long before the COVID.
On one hand, govt borrowed heavily to finance its ambitious budget. On the other hand,external debt has grown rapidly since it assumed power. The external debt has doubled in the last five years. It would be interesting to take a look at the size of external debt at the time a regime takes power and at the time of its departure,starting from 1991.In 1991 when BNP assumed power, external debt was $13 billion. In 1996,when it left the power,the external debt was $15 billion.In 1996,the time when AL came to power,external debt stood at $15 billion. In 2001,the time it stepped down,the debt rose to $17 billion. Then BNP again came to power. In 2006,when BNP left the office,external debt became $20 billion. In 2009,when AL formed the govt debt stock was still $20 billion. In 2014,at the end of third term of AL,it rose to $24.3 billion. At the end of 2018, after the completion of AL's fourth term ,debt stock became $38.5 billion.And in 2022(Feb) it became $55.6 billion2.Bangladesh Bank stats put the figures very high. According to Bangladesh Bank,debt stock in 2022 is $89 billion.The debt has almost doubled in the last 5 years. And the last two terms of Awami League do not fall into the category of representative regime. And what we see here is that external debt stock rises rapidly under regime that is not truly representative of most of the people. One cannot be blamed if one can make statement that non-representative regime spends unwisely and borrows heavily as it has little or no accountability.
| Regime | Starting Year | Debt At The Start($Billion) | Ending/Current* Year | Ending/Current Debt($Billion) |
| BNP | 1991 | 13 | 1996 | 15 |
| AL | 1996 | 15 | 2001 | 17 |
| BNP | 2001 | 17 | 2006 | 20 |
| AL | 2009 | 20 | 2014 | 24.3 |
| AL | 2014 | 24.3 | 2019 | 38.5 |
| AL | 2019 | 38.5 | 2022* | 55.6 |
(Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2019,2022)
| 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt | 41.17 | 45.81 | 56.01 | 62.63 | 68.59 | 81.57 |
Source:Bangladesh Bank
Many here dislike drawing comparison between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Swollen Forex reserve is the source of their confidence. Now this latest round of negotiation amid growing current deficit will make their argument sound hollow.The kind of economic management in Bangladesh we are seeing forewarns us that things as usual may lead us to catastrophe.
Notes And References:
- "Bangladesh Expects $5.5 Billion From WB,IMF In Budget Support”,Saifuddin Saif and Abul Kashem,Business Standard, June 29,2022. For more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/bangladesh-expects-55b-wb-imf-budget-support-449174
- Bangladesh Economic Review 2022