Growing Unease: Revenue Shortfall & High Inflation

Revenue shortfall and rising inflation Should be taken seriously as note of caution.

National Board of Revenue (NBR) has resumed operations of online tax return system since the second week of September. Earlier 526,487 taxpayers , more than double from 2022-23,had submitted their tax statements through the eReturn system for 2023-24. For the last fiscal year, there was a revenue shortfall of Taka 381.57 billion against the revised target of Taka 4.1 trillion. This year too NBR faces an uphill task to meet a colossal target of Taka 5.41 trillion. While govt is tightening the monetary policy, it will be difficult for NBR to double the growth of revenue collection. ADB downgrades Bangladesh's growth forecast to 5.1 % and increases the inflation forecast from 7% to 10%¹. These are worrying developments. In this backdrop, NBR's revenue challenge has also gone up. Sensing the inflationary pressure, governor announced to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points and another one is likely in the coming weeks.

Though income tax is the second highest source of revenue after VAT, only Taka 50/70 billion is generated from online tax return. Last fiscal year, NBR collected Taka 1.31 trillion from income tax. I personally think a user friendly, easy and Bengali online return system would fetch more tax return and revenue for the NBR. If people can submit tax return through button phones/ e-mail, then the number of return submission may go up by manyfolds. NBR' s inability to attract a large number of NRBs to pay taxes plays a role not augmenting the revenue. We inked deal with other countries to avoid double taxation in FDI ,but we did not do so on the income of binationals. If we sign accord with the USA,UK,UAE,Saudi Arabia,Malaysia, Singapore and other countries, a large number of binationals and NRBs will feel encouraged to submit tax. Now NRBs do not show their wealth generated in one country to other country's tax file. Double taxation is reported to be the main reason. This issue needs to be addressed. Special benefits like transfer of funds abroad should be aimed at those who disclose their foreign wealth in the tax files of their country of origin. It will prevent money laundering and bring many NRBs under local tax net. Currently, Bangladesh is running a special campaign similar to Pakistan that allows citizens living home and abroad to deposit their US dollar at the interest bearing accounts of some designated banks. The step is a desperate measure to swell the forex reserve. If Bangladesh Bank takes special measures like financing small and medium business ventures of NRBs abroad on the condition that they provide details of their wealth abroad, then many will feel encouraged to comply the new regulation.

Similarly, many shop owners at home who feel shy to submit their tax return will pay taxes if govt offers some special benefits. For instance, if govt declares people with TIN and BIN get special treatment like reserved places ahead of others in availing govt services,paying utility bills, discounted credit facility etc then many will come forward to pay taxes.

If many of the digital centers set up at the post offices during the time of previous regime are used to train personnel to prepare and submit tax returns for others ,then NBR may get new taxpayers from the upazilas and villages.

I noticed that during tax calculation business income deducts depreciation of equipment, furniture. Right now 10% depreciation cost is allowed to deduct from business income. If it is lowered to 8% or 5% ,taxes from business income as well as revenue earnings from direct taxes will increase. I already share some ideas to increase revenue and number of tax payers in my piece titled "New Tax Act and eReturn System II" ,written in January this year.²

At the same time, if corporate tax is raised by 1%,from 27.5% to 28.5% for non-listed and from 22.5% to 23.5% for listed companies, then govt's revenue will augment by manifold. Unfortunately, the previous govt planned to lower it to 25% and 20% respectively. I think govt should undo the decision given the uncomfortable situation it faces now. ³

To increase tax to GDP ratio every year by 0.5% is really a tough job for the NBR given its current capacity. The ongoing worker's agitation slashed 15% order. Waterlogging still a problem in the flash-flood hit areas. In this backdrop, business as usual will not help the govt to attain its goal. Quick review of revenue policies, drastic cut in public expenditures and radical steps in revenue collection may yield in good outcome.

References:

1. Asian Development Outlook,September 2024. Link: https://www.adb.org/where-we-work/bangladesh/economy
2. "New Tax Act And eReturn System II",Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com, January 27,2024. Link: https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/01/new-tax-act-and-ereturn-sytem-ii.html?m=1
3. "Corporate Tax Cut To 25%", The Daily Star,June 06,2024.Link: https://www.thedailystar.net/business/bangladesh-national-budget-fy2024-25/news/corporate-tax-cut-25-3628386

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(21 septembre --- 27 septembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
21	Pain,Œuf poché,Pomme de terre	Riz,Pomme de terre, Soupe aux lentilles	Riz ,Pomme de terre, Soupe aux lentilles	---
22	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	---
23	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Poulet,Pomme de terre,Papaye	Riz,Poulet,Pomme de terre,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	---
24	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Puntio barbe,Pomme de terre	Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	---
25	Riz,Poulet	Riz,Petit taro chinois,Crevette sec	Riz,Petit taro chinois,Poulet	---
26	Pain,Omelette, Lait	Riz,Papaye,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Lait	---
27	Riz,Poulet	Riz,Papaye,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Ruhi	---

Impact Of Fed's Policy Rate Cut At Home

More foreign credit amid Fed's policy rate cut Rejuvenates the economy burying the but.

The Federal Reserve has lowered the funds rate by 50 basis points, making it 4.83%. Back in July, China lowered the policy rate by 10 basis points, from 3.45% to 3.35%. This time the Chinese central bank decides to keep the policy rate same. It is indeed a good news for Bangladesh and its economic recovery. It means foreign goods will be cheaper; in particular, import of food grains in the wake of devastating flash flood will be less costlier. Consumer spending in the West will rise due to low cost of borrowing,resulting in more procurement of Bangladeshi RMG.

It is conducive to bring down the price levels. Both non-food and food items may result in lower prices. There is no restriction from Bangladesh Bank on LCs to import food and other necessary items. Moreover, duties on several items are also lowered. As Bangladesh Bank is pursuing a contractionary monetary policy, downward pressure on prices of non essential non-food items may be observed soon. In addition, constant rise in remittances and foreign credit is growing the forex reserve and making taka stable. So any pressure on inflation from further depreciation is not visible at the moment.

Moreover, police resuming their role and magistracy power given to the Army for the next 60 days are likely to improve the law & order situation by disrupting the extensive extortion network in the kitchen market. Inflationary situation is bound to improve in the next few months.

Back in June 11, I depicted a scenario for the private sector credit in the piece "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War III".Sharing parts of it:

Fed funds rate: Less than 5.33%
Chinese loan prime rate: Less than 3.45%
This is an ideal situation for economic recovery. Inflationary pressure will be less. Policy rate hike does not need to be prolonged. Economic recovery will be earlier than any other scenarios. Both the Western and Chinese credit will be available. Western consumption will increase,boosting Bangladeshi export. FDIs will rise.

When the piece was written it was assumed that private sector credit would be more than Taka 1517.21 billion. $ 250 million of World Bank's $1 billion credit will go for the SME sector. In addition, the US assistance of $250 million will also go for the private sector. So we are seeing more than Taka 500 billion coming to private sector this year. Moreover, government also lowers borrowing from the banks, making available further bank funds for the private sector. Recently, after more than 7 years ,publicity of consumer credits is appearing on the dailies. Brands are running special ads of their new products. Business sector confidence is back. It is indicating rejuvenation of the economy.

Both domestic and external factors are in favor of fast economic recovery. However, thwarting political uncertainty and maintaining a trouble free supply chain ensures better consumer activity.

References:

1. "Fed Slashes Interest Rates By Half Point, An Aggressive Start To Its First Easing Campaign In Four Years",Jeff Cox,CNBC,September 18,2024. Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-cuts-rates-september-2024-.html
2. "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War III",Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com, June 11,2024. Link: https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/06/macroeconomy-amid-trade-war-iii.html?m=1

Macro Optism,Micro Unease

Forex swells and taka heads to stability, Amid debate referendum clears ambiguity.

There is no short of loan pledges since the interim govt assumed power. World Bank pledged to provide $1 billion as part of carrying out some crucial reforms in the banking sector. Islamic Development Bank pledges to provide $5 billion in the next 3 years. ADB will provide $400 million as budget assistance by December 2024 and another $500 million by March next year. The USAID is going to provide $200 million as development assistance. Meanwhile, inflow of remittances breaking record after record. August witnessed a record inflow of remittances, $2.2 billion. Previous year's August fetched $1.6 billion. In July, $1.9 billion worth remittances ended up in government coffer. Forex reserve is around $20 billion,which is likely to rise in the coming months. Riding on remittances and foreign loan commitment, exchange rate of Taka against the US dollar remains stable: the difference between the unofficial and official rates is less than 1%. If this trend continues for 6 months ,taka may become a stable currency and foreign investors' confidence on Bangladesh will be restored.

However, there are some dark clouds in the distant horizon. Though official data show that inflation eased to 10.49% in August from 11.66% in July, essential kitchen commodities have yet to reflect the official figure. Government eased import restrictions on egg,potato,onions and other items ,yet prices of these items soar. Record torrential rainfalls in the southeast and across the country worsen the waterlogging problem. Rice cultivation and pisciculture sustained severe damages due to this unusual precipitation. Post flood rehabilitation has yet to be started. Export sector shows some signs of unease. This year Bangladesh's RMG exports to the US dropped by 10% compared to previous year. In addition, workers' unrest in the industrial belt on the outskirts of Dhaka continues,resulting in forced closure of many factories. Authority is optimistic to restore the situation. However, rising food prices coupled with worker's agitation and incessant demand from political parties to hold reform under elected govt unveils a path strewn with new challenges before the interim govt. Since the issue may recur again, I think it is better to go for a referendum on duration of the govt along with draft reform policies it will undertake. Once this happens it will throw cold water into such debate and the govt will earn confidence and loyalty of bureaucracy that remains shy in the wake of peculiar state of the constitution. The attitude that politicians are sources of all the problems should be discarded. At the same time,reform should be initiated in all the key institutions of public and private sector. As people have right to know about their public representatives( through RPO and other reports) ,they also have right to know details about those heading key institutions. Similarly, institutions that do not have any accountability cannot steer any kind of special drive until a major reform about their accountability is introduced. A kleptomaniac organization that sustained corrupt regime cannot go after other kleptomaniacs. Else it will add another chapter of human rights violation. Instead of binationals, if we recruit more foreign black/white individuals as advisors or consultants, our economic recovery will be faster. If economy and the country are in good state, then recruitment of these binationals has not become an issue. That is not the case. From bureaucrats to utility company boss, they are subject of debate and a genuine source of corruption.Comment like "America e to shokal / bikal bank khole / bondho hoe( In USA, everyday a bank gets opened/ closed)" came out of their mouth and banking act was amended to make directors from the same family, proved catastrophic in the context of Bangladesh. Dual nationality is a problem to try them in the local court when an issue surfaced. Do you think other countries will accommodate them in key policy making positions? Then why should we be an exception? I think interim govt should refrain from taking major policy decision like setting up quick rental power plants in 2007(see reference 1).That decision was taken during the time of caretaker govt. It did more harm than good,wasting millions of dollars of taxpayer's money. Major policy decisions should be shelved for elected govt who has people's mandate.

Macroeconomic optimism is more pronounced under this govt. But the micro reality is still biting the grassroot people. Witch hunting and banality about reforms may create confusion and political uncertainty ,which is not good for this govt. Specifics of reforms and referendum about their duration clear any ambiguity.

References:

1. "2007 E Tottabodhayok Sorkarer Somoy Quickrental Er Jatra Shuru(Quick rental Starts Its Journey In 2007)",Abu Taher,Daily Bonikbarta, September 02,2024.Link: https://bonikbarta.net/home/news_description/397522/%E0%A7%A8%E0%A7%A6%E0%A7%A6%E0%A7%AD-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B2%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%A7%E0%A6%BE%E0%A7%9F%E0%A6%95-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%AE%E0%A7%9F-%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%9F%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B2-%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A6%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AF%E0%A7%81%E0%A7%8E-%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A6%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%AF%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BE-%E0%A6%B6%E0%A7%81%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%81

[update: this piece has been updated at 7:04 am BST on September 02,2024; update includes insertion of reference to starting of quick rental powerplant.]

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(14 septembre --- 20 septembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
14	Pain,Omelette,Papaye	Riz,Papaye, Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Tchanatchur(depuis marché)	---
15	Pain,Lait poudre	Riz,Omelette, Soupe aux lentilles,Papaye	Pain,Lait poudre	---
16	Riz,Œuf,Ruhi	Riz,Papaye	Riz,Papaye	Halwa de semoule
17	Riz,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Lait poudre
18	Pain,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf	Riz gonflé,Lait
19	Pain,Lait	Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	---
20	Pain,Poulet	Riz,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Petite aniguille indienne	---

Bezmenov's Leak Still Relevant: From Awami Policing To Moral Policing

Test your belief while bringing the dawn, Otherwise you may become just a pawn.

Yuri Bezmenov was a soviet journalist and diplomat. He defected to the West in 1970 and disclosed the psychological warfare model,which he had learned during his stint into his country's intelligence agency, used by the Soviets during the cold war to instill a new ideology into a society uprooting the prevailing ones. He publicly spilled the beans to Edward Griffin, an American journalist in the US,in 1984(see references: 1 and 2) . YouTube video is still available. I do not subscribe all his explanations and views about the 1971 and 1975. The timing of his defection and that of his interview depicts a different time. Lots of things were happening at home and abroad back then.The interview in particular is used to tell a particular narrative, to convince a particular audience. By the time the interview was aired, his subversion model had already been known to the world. Moreover, I find it a bit oversimplified and exaggerated. It is not that easy to fool a whole country. But there are some facts in that interview and you just cannot throw away the subversion model he exposed. So what is this subversion model he was talking about?

It comprises of 4 stages(see references: 3 and 4): Demoralization, Destabilization, Crisis and Normalization. Demoralization takes 15-20 years to complete and in this phase society's core values,beliefs ,traditions and identity are questioned in a bid to disorient the population. Methods employed include politicization and monetization of creed,monopolization of media,controlling flow of information,discrediting others, educate generation to accept things without challenging, glorifying the ideology comparing it with others,antagonism among political parties,less spontaneous response from individuals to address social issues etc.

Destabilization takes another 2-5 years to complete and in this phase subvert ideology is projected to be an alternative. Methods employed include diminishing bargaining process in the economy, unreasonable power struggle,populism in politics,mobs reigning laws and society,growing isolation in foreign relations. Solution is "grass is greener on the other side" or other ideology is better.

Crisis phase lasts 6 months. In this phase people lost their trust on existing institutions and discard them. They are ready to embrace radical change,including welcoming ideology they were taught to despise.

Normalization describes the phase when subverted ideology becomes the ideology of the ruling regime. Military takeover is also a feature of normalization.

In general, the whole subversion process takes 20 to 23 years to complete. But there is no specific timeframe. But I find it a bit hilarious because it is almost part of a political thriller's manuscript and it considers a whole nation as cattle stock. There are many competing interest groups within a nation and it is not easy to fool them.

Now coming back to Bezmenov's subversion technique. If we consider it in the context of Bangladesh, then we can see two major ideological shifts took place in Bangladesh: one in 1975 and another in 2009. Ideology dominating post-75 finally gave in in 2009. The demoralization phase lasted till 2006. Destabilization and crisis phase lasted till 2008. And in 2009 the so called normalization came.Then another demoralization phase started. Another ideological shift took place in 2024. I would rather say we are still in the destabilization phase according to the psy warfare process. Another ideology has yet to take over.

But what I find most interesting about Yuri Bezmenov's interview is the mention of "Colorado bug". When Yuri was a school kid ,they were told to kill as many " Colorado bug" as possible to save the wheat. Teachers told them Americans had dropped them to harm the Soviet Union. Back in the 1990/91,when we were school kids a campaign was introduced to eradicate the pink morning glory trees,known here as "Dhol Kolmi". The bushy tree was used as perimeter hedge of a house. It was disseminated that a bug that kills human, known as "dhol kolmi poka", lives on it. In China, we knew how millions of sparrows were culled during the cultural revolution ,resulting in deaths of millions in the famine.

This cultural revolution phase is going on in Bangladesh. Before people were harassed/ beaten to death,being tagged as "Jamaat/Shibir". Now people are being harassed/ beaten to death, being tagged as "Awami League/Hasina's man".From schools to office rooms, the vigilant mob's justice spares none. It should be stopped. Where is the transformations?Change? The more obvious is the change of role between the conqueror and the vanquished.

Even if Yuri's subversion is in work, I do not think normalization would end up in military take over. Why? Any such misadventure will stall the ongoing talks between Bangladesh and the IMF to bail out the economy. Moreover, punitive sanctions will be imposed by other donors and the West. UN mission, foreign study of military bureaucrats' kids will also be hampered. And Bangladesh may hinge on costly options for budget support. The Army will prefer a civilian look of the ongoing status quo.

Kind of capital dominating the country dictates the future ideology. Nowadays, Chinese investment is growing. Saudi,UAE money is coming in port and infrastructure development. The upcoming US ambassador to Bangladesh worked in China and his job there focused mainly on economy. It indicates more Chinese investment,particularly in manufacturing, is coming to Bangladesh. So the upcoming ideology is a combination of the lefts and the dominant creed to safeguard the investment. We can clearly see where the "charismatic","photogenic", "Ja Kicchu bhalo...(Everything That Is Good...)","Shot Loker Sashon(Honest Men's Rule)" alternative lies. It is not necessary that they will share the power but they may use the proxies or switch the roles of ruling-opposition parties by becoming the dominant parties.

Now the question is how peaceful this transformations from "Awami Policing" to "Moral Policing" will be. Ongoing experience is bitter and troubling. I went to a customer service center to complain about my revoked bonus data. I was told " Amader ekshomoy AAJIBON Ek Desh Ek Rate ... Taka Chhilo. Oitao bondho koira dichhi.Eita to kichhui na. ( We once offered One Country, One Rate for ... Taka for life!We stopped that! This one is nothing compared to that)". I tried to convince them in vain that they agreed in principle to provide the offer for a certain period ,applicable to all subscribing the SIM. It violated my consumer rights. How various groups adapted to the new narrative and use it in their own interest. This operator tries to collect syndicated loan from local market for upgradation.Satan! Both the outgoing and upcoming ideologies practice cadre-based politics. So individual, group,organizational freedom under such ideologies are not in a comfortable zone. Reforms are still being prepared. But a new proposition emerged saying "redemption" before "reconciliation". I think proper probe under the UN is the first important task: who are responsible behind so many deaths and injuries. Then come out with a draft reform policies. After that go for a referendum to get people's mandate to carry out the reform in a mandated timeframe. Without any mandate, any such "redemption" proposal may be seen as retributive justice. I always cross check information, views propagated in the press or in the internet. I always put a "?" on any narrative, hypothesis mooted.I test my conviction before accepting it. We should respect all our heroes. Demonizing them, demoralizing them only weakens our own identities and position. If they have flaws ,let the historians judge them. Judging heroes through binary prism is prolonging the problem. I think we should not do that mistake. Otherwise we may just become pawns in others' game.

References:

1. Yuri Bezmenov. Link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Bezmenov
2. Interview ; Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2b-I0Yqisc
3. "4 Stages of Ideological Subversion According To Yuri Bezmenov", Nitigya Pant,February 24,2024. Link: https://medium.com/@nitigyaraj/4-stages-of-ideological-subversion-according-to-yuri-bezmenov-psychological-warfare-in-action-4ea01e2268c7
4. " Bezmenov's Steps(Ideological Subversion)", Porlando,July 14,2020. www.unintendedconsequences.es. Link: https://unintendedconsequenc.es/bezmenovs-steps/

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(07 septembre --- 13 septembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
07	Pain,Citrouilles	Riz,Omelette, Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Pianju (depuis marché),Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Tchanatchur(depuis marché)
08	Pain,Halwa de semoule	Riz,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi,Pianju(depuis marché)	---
09	Riz,Œuf,Lait,Banane	Riz,Lait,Banane	Riz,Pianju(depuis marché),Soupe aux lentilles	---
10	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Épinard d'eau, Poulet	Riz,Épinard d'eau	---
11	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	---
12	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Ruhi	Riz gonflé,Épinard d'eau	---
13	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi,Purée de papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Latya,Ruhi	Vermicelles

Normalcy Yet To Return

Consumers yet to give sigh of relief, Recruit foreigner as department chief.

The "revolutionary govt" has made remarkable achievements in terms of increasing the inward remittances flow and bringing foreign investor's confidence into the stock market. Despite the low incidence of extortion, kitchen market has yet to respond in the right way by registering a reduction in prices. August inflation data has not yet been published. But coarse rice price has gone up following the flash flood in the southern part of Bangladesh. However govt made a prodigious move by announcing that rice will be sold at Taka 30/kilo in the flood affected areas for three months.

The internet has been a great source of trouble. Except one all the operators offered internet services at snail's pace. Previously law-enforcement agencies deliberately slowed down internet in response to credible threat of deterioration of law & order. I do not know whether this time they have such information. But prices of data packages have gone up since the regime change. In addition, incidents of data loss, wrong package, breach of agreement have also gone up. For instance, I recharged some money into my phone with the intention of purchasing one package but later found that I was subscribed to another package which I had not intended to purchase. Furthermore, few months ago I had purchased a SIM from an operator with the offer that it would provide me 22 GB in the next 11 months (2GB for one week in each month). But on August 29, in a bizarre SMS, it said it nullified that offer. No explanation provided. Had it conveyed its intention before I would not have purchased the package. This is a serious breach of agreement and violates consumer rights. At one hand ,quality of internet drops ,on the other, cost of data rises. Earlier BTRC held regular hearing on violation of consumer rights and gave verdict. These hearing sessions should be resumed. Similarly, an auction process should be initiated to provide new license to another operator. At the same time, the merger of the two leading mobile operators should be investigated. Though they claim their Bangladesh operations are different, they have the same corporate headquarter in Kualalampur, where many influential former army bureaucrats and their family members reside,and boasted merger of their Asian operations¹. This merger not only hampers govt's revenue collection from the mobile operators but also undermines consumer rights. A strengthened Bangladesh Competition Commission may look into this matter and come up with a detailed report highlighting their market shares before and after the merger, impact on VAT and corporate tax revenue from this merger, impact on consumer rights, impact on businesses environment.

It is unfortunate that our existing institutions, agencies do not have the capacity to scrutinize the nitty gritty of such merger and other agreements. Or maybe they have it ,but remained mum under a corrupt atmosphere. The blunder with the pension fund lays bare it. I think it will be good for us if we recruit foreign economists(white/black) ,who practice macroeconomic management and has stint in IMF or investment bank, as chief economist of the central bank, as pension fund manager/consultant of the universal pension fund,advisor/consultant of NBR and consultant of strategic community. Instead of one set of assessment and forecast of the economy, if the central bank, the govt,the strategic community, the big corporation, civil societies produce their own assessment and forecast of the economy, better economic decisions will emerge out of multiple assessments and outcomes. If such individual economist/investment banker is not available,we may ink deal with investment firm or a department of foreign university to get the job done. Too many assessments and forecasts will have focus on different sectors of the economy and will produce better picture of them. Furthermore, estimation and forecast issues will be addressed more quickly and efficiently. At the same time any kind of narrative setting attempt using the economic data will be thwarted.

Recently, NBR and Comptroller And Auditor General (CAG) office came into loggerhead over the true figure of revenue data. NBR took into account deferred VAT revenue while calculating the revenue earnings. Meanwhile, CAG calculated revenue earnings based on VAT receipts in a given day. The differences between the calculations caused huge debate². It once again highlighted the lack of coordination among different govt bodies. Meanwhile ,IMF asks for preparing a midterm and longterm reform plan for the revenue sector. Affirmative position of IMF about another $3 billion requires genuine reform plan from the interim govt. I think other donors will follow the same strategy. It has been one month since the interim govt took power. They need more time to consolidate their position in the govt and kick start the reform programs. Sooner life returns to normalcy the better.

References:

1. "Telenor ,Axiata Malaysia Merger Finally Completes",Chris Donkin,Mobile World Live, November 30,2024.Link: https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/home-banner/telenor-axiata-malaysia-merger-finally-completes/
2. "Rajosho Totthyer Omil Thik Korte Sobha Dekhechhey NBR(NBR To Call Meeting To Fix Differences In Revenue Estimation)", Daily Bonikbarta, August 30,2024. Link: https://bonikbarta.net/home/news_description/397141/%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%9C%E0%A6%B8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AC-%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%A5%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AF%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%85%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%B2-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AC%E0%A7%9F%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%AD%E0%A6%BE-%E0%A6%A1%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%9B%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%8F%E0%A6%A8%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%86%E0%A6%B0

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(31 août --- 06 septembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
31	Pain,Pomme de terre bhaji	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Ruhi	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Ruhi	---
01	Pain,Lait pudre	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Omelette, Pomme de terre bhaji,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Pomme de terre bhaji,Soupe aux lentilles	---
02	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Poulet,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Poulet,Petit taro chinois	Lait(depuis marché)
03	Khichuri,Poulet	Riz,Concombre	Riz,Concombre, Petir taro chinois	---
04	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Petit taro chinois	Lait (depuis marché)
05	Riz,Pomme de te,,Omelette,Poulet	Riz,Pomme de terre,Ruhi	Riz,Pomme de terre, Pianju, (depuis marché)	---
06	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Pomme de terre,Latya poisson	Riz,Pomme de terre,Latya poisson	---