Thursday, May 23, 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(17 mai --- 24 mai)

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a caché le sondage sur la mortalité maternelle. L’étude a été faite par le ministère de la santé.  D’après le sondage, le taux de la mortalité maternelle a augmenté un peu en 2016, 196 par 100.000 personnes. En 2016, c’était 194. Les trouvailles ont été publiées dans le site de minisère. Mais elles ont été retirées quelques jours plus tard.

Selon une chronique, le gouvernement a aussi caché les trouvailles d’un sondage fait par Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Dáprès le sondage, le revenu a baissé par 2% et la consumption a baissé par 1 %.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh Road Transport Authority s’est dit quíl y a 39 millions véhicules dont plus de 2,5 millions moto. Mais seulement 1,5 millions  conducteurs de moto possèdent le permis de conduire.

Selon un reportage, le ministère de l’intérieur a alerté tous les ambassades bangladais à l’étranger de ne pas donner permis de voyage aux djihadistes de Daech. Le plupart ne disposent pas de passeport. Donc, il se peut quíls puissent demander  permis de voyage à l’ambassade de Bangladesh pour retourner. Selon un autre reportage, 9 terroristes bangladais dont un recruteur se sont rendus à Kurdistan Counter Terrorism Group. 

Selon un reportage, 15 Bangladais secourus au large de Tunisie sont revenus au Bangladesh. Dans l'interview accordée à la presse , ils ont accusé les escrocs et l’agence de voyage,situé à Sylhet, pour la tragédie.

Selon un reportage, achat des meubles et oreiller, vaut Tk 1,46 billions, pour les appartements d'ouvrier de la centrale nucléaire à Rooppur a causé polémique dans tout le pays. Tsar de anticorruption Transparency International Bangladesh a mis en question cet achat.


Need For A Corporate Governance Index

As Bangladeshis we are not unknown to various indices propagated by local and international bodies to detect and gauge inveterate issues prevailing in our societies. Some of them are intended to really make a difference in our life, some are to capture gravity of the situation. Time has come to introduce another one: Corporate Governance Index. It will be an index that will trace governance in our corporate sector and will help understand what can be done here.

Before spelling out the core, let us loiter over the prelude a bit more. On too many occasions, we hear people repining over the corporate governance. It is infested with bad lots, our conglomerates do not last long, worker-management relations is not in good shape. Many big groups that faced odds and grew strong in favorable times could not even stand still in the face of the wind of change in adverse conditions. Deteriorating conditions in our big groups are often put our policy makers in quandary as to which side to take. Knavery soiled reputation of corporate sector. Far too many corrupt practices are being detected in recent times. Often powerful political patrons abetted the wrongdoers. Reneging on agreed terms has become commonplace.

Few that eschewed the political influence and achieved a state  of beatitude by getting closer to Men-in-Fatigue also made a mark in the corporate world. And now we see the shadow of the blessed groups transcends the boundary of corporate affairs. Now we can feel their presence in public offices and in professional bodies. 

Often we hold a view that corporate world should be free from any kind of leverage. In a country where business mingled with politics, this kind of view sounds like utopian. But even if we try to achieve or get closer to that undisturbed state of corporate governance, that will be a great leap forward to make things better. A barren land requires rain to rejuvenate its top soil so that microorganism could play their role to make it fertile. Similarly, a Corporate Governance Index (CGI) for Bangladesh will actuate the business groups to act independently and lawfully . It will force the government to act responsibly by restraining ruling party stalwarts.

CGI can be composed of bevy of indicators: ownership, decision making process, dispute settlement, CSR activities, R&D commitments, closeness to political groups, closeness to security establishments, information etc.


Ownership indicator will assay the owners, how they form the company and the percentage of stakes they hold in the company. Political ownership will fetch a low score.

Decision Making Process will try to measure participation of all the stakeholders in decision making, taking into account minority shareholders' opinions, reflections of opinions shared by employees, consumers, influence of outside quarters in the decision making process and respecting minority shareholders' rights.

Dispute Settlement indicator will look into how the company settles its differences with vendors, subsidiaries and employees. Is there any fair representation of stakeholders in the dispute settlement body? Did the aggrieved party acquiesce in the decision made by the board or move to the Higher Court for justice?

CSR Activities will try to fathom the company’s commitment to make lives, society better by patronizing social initiatives and individual campaigns to fight an evil or a social problem. It will also evaluate company’s commitment towards other sectors like arts and literature, sports etc.

R&D Commitments will evaluate a company in terms of its willingness to undertake research and innovation programs within the company and its support for research works at tertiary institutions.

Links With Political Groups will try to measure how far and at what length it supports and finances political activities. What percentage of political activists constitutes its active workforce.  Does the company dole out regular payments to some party workers? Did the company try to take political assistance to get favor over its rivals at any stage of its operation?

Links With Defense Establishment will try to find out company’s milking of senior and influential military/police bureaucrats to get some favor in doing business in Bangladesh. It will also look into involvement of serving officials in a company and business dealings between a defense-run company and a private company. Since such companies are insulated from tribulations from various quarters, it is not just to consider them on a par with companies who face this kind of troubles. So, they will get a low score if there is this kind of tie.

Audit And Tax will assay company’s ability to conduct regular audit and put the recommendation into action . It will also judge tax commitment of the company.


Information will try to find out how willing a company is to divulge critical and sensitive information to shareholders and the press.


Finally, the CGI will be made by adding all the individual scores. High score means better ranking in corporate governance.


A dedicated organization, headed by a retired university professor or banker, can be formed to  create the CGI and publish an annual corporate governance report.  The initiative can be supported by professional bodies of bankers, businessmen, economic and business reporters and business editors. Researchers, revenue bureau and other organizations can throw their lots with this newly created organization. Individuals and philanthropic institutions can pool money for its creation. A year or two later , sponsors and donors will pitch in.

Now come to the crux of the matter: how this CGI will make a difference.  As soon as news of CGI report suffuses  the country, people will look down upon the companies who will perch on the lower rung of CGI ranking. Bankers will think twice to endorse investment/loan proposal of companies who do not have good scores in the CGI. Press will not give them the space and consumers will be cautious about them. This, in turn, will make parties and defense establishment to hide their footprints  in the corporate world , leading to an intervention-free corporate environment.


Monday, May 20, 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(10 mai --- 17 mai)

Selon un reportage , un naufrage de bateau au large de Tunis a tué 37 Bangladais. Mais les secouristes  ont  secouru 14 Bangladais. Ils ont tenté de traverser la Méditerrannée pour parvenir la Libye. L’ambassade de Bangladesh à Tripoli appréhende que le bilan puisse s’alourdir. Selon un autre reportage, RAB  s’est dit que la force élite avait appréhendé 3 coupables qui étaient cerveau de ces affaires clandestines.

Selon un reportage, le ministre des Finances s’est dit que l’économie de Bangladesh était aussi mieux que celle de Canada. Son commentaire a causé polémique dans la presse et  parmi les  économistes. De plus en plus d’économistes demandent  explication au gouvernement sur calcul de PIB.

Selon un reportage,  l’opération  contre stupéfait a tué 358 barons de drogue présumés dans une année. Les forces de sécurité ont saisi 51,4 millions de pilule de yaba et 290 Kg de cannabis.
Selon un reportage, International Displacement Monitoring Center  dans son rapport se dit qu’il y a 78300 personnes déplacées intérieurement au Bangladesh en 2019.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh Food Safety Authority a publié une liste de 52 marques d’alimetation et  de boisson qui sont hasardeux pour la santé.

Selon un reportage,  Police a secouru 34 Rohigyas depuis Ukhiya et Teknaf pendant que les traffiquants les tentaient d’emmener en Malaisie par bateau.

Selon un reportage, le renseignement policier a identifié une bande d’escroc qui a fait un trou dans la base de données de l’identité de ressortissant et escroqué Tk1,10 depuis deux banques en falsifiant deux cartes d’identité.

Selon un reportage, une tempête dans tout le pays a tué 8 personnes et blessé plusieures  personnes. Des rafales de 93 km/h ont renversé une construction temporaire en chaume pour les adeptes dans la cour de la Mosquée nationale à Dhaka, tuant 1 et blessant 15. De plus, coup de tonnerre et effondrement de mur ont aussi tué des personnes.


Selon un reportage, Human Rights Watch dans un communiqué a requêté au gouvernement de Bangladesh de ne pas apprehender les critiques. HRW a fait la reaction suite à apprehension d’un avocat et d’un poète.

Decoding Our FDI

A debate has often been waged that we are not getting enough foreign investment. However, many statistics provided by various government agencies say Bangladesh has bagged lots of investments over the years. Many will put up opposition to such claim by citing figures of neighboring countries. Breakdown of those investments will offer a different picture than what we have in our minds.

In terms of reporting investment figures, there are differences. Many government organizations have predilection for  proposed investment projects to show them as investment figure. Meanwhile, others report inflows of foreign investment as real investment. It is obvious that what has been pledged at a certain point is not often matched by what has been implemented at a later date. This mismatch writs large on the following graph. In 2017, foreign investors pledged to invest $10756 millions. But the real foreign investment was $3038 million. (Source: BIDA and Bangladesh Bank) Obviously, bigger the number bigger the projection of success.


True debate may revolve around whether $3038 million is enough for a country like Bangladesh. Compared to our GDP, should we be contend to this amount of investment? Our investment-GDP ratio has been increasing since 2005-06. Back in 2005-06, it was  26.14% and it has increased to 32.04% at the end of 2015-16. What will attract more investment is a matter that we are less concerned. If we empathize an investor, we will see discounted cash flows of a project, marginal product of output against rental cost, inventory-to-sales ratio , inventory management etc are very dear to him. Some may argue that political stability is also important for  attracting investment. To what extent it is true that needs to be examined. For instance, many authoritarian countries bag huge amount of investment. In these countries, there is political stability and concerns crucial to an investor are also being addressed in these countries.



I did a little analysis on the victims of political instability and FDI. First I ran a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model on victims of political violence and foreign investment that took place between 2002 and 2018. Then I ran a causality test between the two. Despite the ups and downs in the number of victims in the said period and a steady rise of FDI , statistical results show neither political stability causes more FDI, nor more FDI causes a stable political environment. There is no causal relationship between the two. Certainly, it does not mean that descamidos will dominate the street and strikes and siege will cripple the country. The bigger truth is political instability hurts the economy. Political stability helps to maintain homeostasis of a state that is conducive to bring more investment by sowing trust among the investors.

(Data Source: Bangladesh Bank and Odhikar)



Trust of an investors hinges on lots of factors.World Bank in its "Doing Business 2019" report ranked Bangladesh 176 among 190 countries. Though the country did well in getting electricity and registering property, it scored bad in starting a business, getting credit, protecting minority shareholders, dealing with construction permits and trading across borders. Perhaps better governance at home could secure Bangladesh an improved position by signalling positive things to a foreign investors.

Now what kind of investment we are getting and its sector wise composition call for a closer scrutiny. Bangladesh Bank survey for July-Dec 2018 says that both reinvested earnings and intra-company loans account for 64% of net FDI inflows in the given period. Equity capital accounts for the rest 36%. Bangladesh Bank defines reinvested earnings as amount of profit shelved for reinvestment , intra-company loans as borrowing and lending between parent companies and subsidiaries, and equity capital as ordinary shares,capital reserves, share money deposits and other reserves. At first glance it appears that all the reinvestment of profits and intra-company loans are good things. It sounds good when it means production capacity will be increased, expansion of operation, automation, backward linkage, forward linkage, introduction of new technology and managerial services etc. However, how transparently they are being done that has never been taken into account. Because the reinvested amount and the loans will go back to the investors later. And we may end up paying more if the calculation is overestimated. And another note of caution is like our public external debt , our private external debt is also increasing.

Sector wise composition reveals that in 2018 Power attracted more investment(28.01%) ,followed by Food(20.19%) and Textile and Wearing(11.29%). According to a monthly report by BIDA,  in 2012-13 the Service sector accounts for 92.76% of the proposed foreign investment. It is more or less clear that the  Power, Telecommunications and Services sectors led the way in terms of getting FDI. Apart from Textile and Wearing, these sectors are heavily capital intensive and employment generation in these sectors is infinitesimal. So $1012.01 million of  investment in Power sector may obviate the shortcomings of Power sector but did little to create employment opportunities in this sector.

To see FDI as a real game changer for our economy, we should focus on sectors that are labor-intensive and where there is more room for value addition. For instance, tourism and agroprocessing industry could be potential destinations for FDI. Unlike Power and Telecommunications sectors, the two do not require astronomical amount of investment. Every penny invested will fetch benefits worth couple of times more than the amount invested. It is high time that our policy makers seriously ponder  about where we truly need FDI.

Friday, May 10, 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(3 mai --- 10 mai)

Selon un reportage, police espagnole a arrêté une bande de trafiquants bangladais qui ont aidé à entrer clandestinement centaines de personnes en Europe. Ils ont demandé $15,000 ou $20,000 aux clients.

Selon un reportage, une dirigeante supérieure de Bangladesh police a été tuée dans un accident au Congo. Elle s'y est rendue pour voir l'opération de Casque bleue de Bangladesh police. La tragédie s'est déroulée quand un camion a percuté son véhicule.

Selon un reportage, police a arrêté un djihadiste de Daech depuis Uttara. Il est revenu au Bangladesh il y a deux mois.

Selon un reportage, Axiata , société malaise de télécommunications, est entré en pourparlers avec son homologue norvège pour fusionner leur opération en Asie. Dans un communiqué Telenor a affirmé la nouvelle causant beacoup de soucis parmi les Bangladais. Il y a seulement trois opérateurs de télécommunications au Bangladesh. Si la fusion entrera en vigueur, il y aura deux opérateurs de service de GSM au Bangladesh. Néanmoins Axiata dans un communiqué s'est dit que opération de Bangladesh était hors de pourparlers.

Selon un reportage, le bilan préalable de cyclone Fani est prêt. Le cyclone a péri 13 personnes et déraciné d'arbre et pylônes de télécommunications. Le ministre de l'agriculture s'est dit que le cyclone avait touché 35 districts provoquant dégâts à 63.000 hectares de champ de riz et de récoltes qui valent Tk 385 millions.

Selon un reportage, un vol de Bangladesh Biman a dérapé la piste d'atterrissage de Yangon aéroport à cause de mauvais temps. Tous les passagers ont subi des blessures.

Selon un reportage, un container s'est renversé en Malaisie tuant 10 ouvriers bangladais .

Selon un reportage, une infirmière a été violée et tuée dans un à bus à Gazipur.

Outsourcing Begins At Home

For the last couple of years, government has been relentlessly trying to increase the revenue from outsourcing. It staged several international events to project Bangladesh as a major outsourcing country. Bangladesh has a lot of potential in this sector. Digital Bangladesh has paved the path for it.

However, many critics view the outsourcing goals as hyperbole. The industry in general lacks uncanny frail of high-end freelancers. In 2017, Oxford Internet Institute did a survey on global online service providers. Bangladesh became second by providing 16% of the online laborers. India secured the top suppliers position by dominating the market share of software development and technology. Bangladeshi freelancers on the other hand made a stronghold in online sales and marketing. This study clearly insinuates the areas where our freelancers have comparative advantage.

But when it comes to revenues the freelancers generated every year, I have yet to see a comprehensive stat on that. There is a hush hush about it. I do not know why.

As a neutral observer I have noticed that slew of efforts have been made to tap the foreign outsourcing markets. However, at home, there are areas that have the potentials of becoming new outsourcing destinations.

Take for example our health sector. We spend lots of money in this sector to provide affordable healthcare to millions of people. Even our drugs are heavily subsidized . Our public medical facilities are far from digitalization. The health centre at upazilla levels and public hospitals everyday generate millions of handwritten prescription. Here I do not include the ones generated by private practitioners and private clinics.

Government and pharmaceutical companies have responsibilities to keep track of the patients' medical history, prescribed medicines and diseases that cause tribulations.

It will do two things: Government and policy makers will make better policies in health sector and private pharmaceutical companies will have a better understanding of drug business with the availability of the up-to-the-minute update of health data.

Digitalization of our health services could open up new alleys for our outsourcing sector. We could easily keep digital record of a physician’s prescription. Copy of the prescription can be passed to data entry operators to build a health database of the country. Anyone with knowledge of spreadsheet application and HSC equivalent Biology education can do the task. This potential operator could be equipped with a personal PC, laptop or smart phone with spreadsheet application. For the neophytes, Health Ministry or other relevant department could organize preliminary training program. The operators will get an amount for documentation of each prescription. The pecuniary earning will help students, unemployed and housewives to cover their spending.

Pharmaceutical companies could also play a pivotal role in this endeavor. They could assist the government or run a parallel initiative to digitalize the prescriptions stem forth private clinics and private practitioners.

Why does this health database matter? For many things actually. It will help the government and policy makers to make health profile of an individual and a region. Health professionals will get a deeper understanding of the diseases that crop up in a region, its severity and inter-generational affects. At the same time, production of vital medicines and its consumption could be tracked. Many of the ingredients of our medicines are imported from abroad. Recent data could help government to check the subsidy and to review its decision on imposing duty.
For private pharmaceutical companies, this health database will give an inkling towards the demand and supply of prescribed drugs, consumers preferences, productions costs and areas to focus on.

Apart from digitalization of the prescription, the health database may also subsume information on public and private health facilities dotted across the country, their operational and maintenance cost, stockpiling of drugs , service providers’ and service recipients’ records.
This army of data entry operators is available. They could be recruited individually or in a group. At prefatory stage when they will be primping themselves for this kind of task they may require trainers’ assistance. Given the minimal knowledge requirement, this creation of a health database will create decent employment at the Mofussil cities and villages throughout the year. And the update will go on every day, which means throughout the year the service of the operators will be needed.

Another sector that can also contribute to the budding outsourcing sector is the Ministry of Home Affairs . The police stations all across the country generate thousand of General Diary every day. If the Ministry outsources the task of digital documentation of General Diary, then another window will be opened for freelancers.

Similarly, there are many secretarial jobs that require extensive documentation at the bureaucracy and in many other public and private organizations. This could easily pass down to freelancers.

In a world when everything is metric, proponents of Digital Bangladesh have their hearts in the right place but the head is off somewhere in the cloud. Till now, they obtrude their views about cutting a share in the global outsourcing market. Till now, we see all the efforts have been mobilized to materialize this goal. Meanwhile, ample opportunities lie at home that none explores before and suit better to harvest the skills of homespun IT savvy population. Growing dependence of our outsourcing sector on local sectors will obviate the uncertainties of freelancers.

Friday, May 3, 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(26 avril --- 03 mai)

Selon un reportage, Daech a revendiqué un attentat contre police. Dans une attaque de bombe contre police le lundi soir a heurté trois policiers à Gulistan.

Selon un reportage, des voleurs sont entrés par effraction dans le bureau du parti d'un ancien général et chef de l'État et volé Tk 4,3 millions.

Selon un reportage, RAB a tué un enseignant d'un centre de cours privé. Il a été accusé d'avoir violé son étudiante.

Selon un reportage, 10 ouvriers bangladais ont été tués dans un accident en Arabie Saoudite.

Selon un reportage, police sri lankaise a appréhendé 3 Bangladais pour ne pas avoir montré les papiers.

Selon un reportage, l'armée de la mer de Libye a secouru 96 migrants clandestins depuis Bangladesh et Soudan.

Selon un reportage, des escrocs ont escroqué $2 milliards depuis les ouvriers bangladais en 2016 en leur promettant de donner Visa des pays étrangers. Transparency International Bangladesh a divulgué les trouvailles de son étude à la presse.

Selon un reportage, le cyclone Fani, déjà balayé les côtes indienne en tuant 8 personnes, s'approche vers Bangladesh avec des rafales de 100 km/h. Gouvernement a déployé milliers des secouristes qui ont évacué 2 millions de personnes dans les villages côtiers. On craint une montée des eaux d'un mètre là -bas. Les ports et aéroports sont fermés. La chute d'arbre a causé une mort à Satkhira.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Indebted Indeed

As a nation, our debts are piling up. We need to grow worried. However, it has never been reached to  worrying level. Government always feels complacent by citing our debt-GDP ratio, which is much lower and declining as per official statistics. Many are not happy the way they are being calculated. Just take a look at the level of our outstanding external debt stock, In 2012, it was $22.095 billion. In 2017, it became $ 28.33 billion. And last year it increased to $33.11 billion. Our outstanding debt as percentage of GDP in 2012 was 16.6. In 2017, it declined to 11.3. But in 2018, it increased to 12.1. (Source: Bangladesh Bank)

Many of our development and infrastructure projects are being financed by foreign credits. In FY2016-17, we took a $3.21 billion worth of medium and long term loans. In FY2017-18, the amount rose to $5.78 billion.

Our repayment record is pretty good. In 2014, repayments of MLT were $1.2 billion. In 2017, we paid back $1.1 billion of MLT loans with interest. In 2018, we paid back even more: $ 1.4 billion. Eventually we have to make adjustments in our expenditures to do this kind of payments. For instance, we could have spent this money on education, health and social safety net programs.

Perhaps as a country our earnings are not enough to meet our spending. Current account captures economic activity of a country with the rest of the world and its ability to pay spending on foreign goods.

A closer look at the Balance of Payments reveals that our overall balance is negative in 2017-18. Moreover, our current account balance has been negative since 2016-17. Last year ,I wrote an analytical piece on our negative overall balance, titled "Address The Imbalance". Data published by Bangladesh Bank and Bangladesh Economic Survey insinuate that we have a current account deficit of $1.3 billion in FY 2016-17. This deficit has grown to $ 9.7 billion in FY2017-18.

Our trade balance has always been negative. It has always been a one sided story: import dominates export. In 2017-18, our export grew by 6.43%. Private transfers, which incorporated remittances sent by workers, grew by 16.28%. Meanwhile, import grew by 16.28% during the same period. So, two major sources of receipt did not jointly outweigh the major source of payments. Import spending is growing at a greater pace. A regression run on trade data collected in the periods between 2004-05 and 2017-18 revealed that a 1 percent increase in export decreases the trade imbalance by 3.12 percent whereas a 1 percent increase in import increases the trade imbalance by 4.1 percent.

Remittances popped up the current account balance, which was positive till 2016-17. In fact the deficit in CA in 2016-17 is largely attributed to fall in remittances in that period.In 2015-16, we received $14.72 as remittances. In 2016-17, it declined to 12.76 billion. In 2017-18, it increased to $ 14. 7 billion. Despite the increase in remittances, we incurred a current account deficit due to large import expenditure in 2017-18. Many of the recruiting countries have already stopped hiring Bangladeshi workers or started sending back the laid-off workers. There has been no rapid increase in remittances. What role remittances could play to improve our current account deficit and the overall balance that is about to see.

A positive overall balance withered away the worries in all these years. Balance of Payments say along with FDI, medium and long term loans have kept the overall balance positive all these years. It is anticipated that the medium and long term loans will grow more as we are implementing a greater number of projects with foreign loan. And we have to pay them back along with interest. As I said earlier we have to slash somewhere else to repay those loans. What rings the alarm bell is a negative overall balance in 2017-18.

Growing current account deficit, rising foreign debt and a diminishing reserve remain genuine cause for concern. In 2017-18(Jul-Feb) we received $3.1 billion MLT loans and in 2018-19(Jul-Feb) it increased to $ $3.9 billion, a 21.30 percent increase. During the same period, our reserve declined from $33.0 billion to $32.3 billion.

Remedial measures include pursuing an expansionary monetary policy, which will increase output and depreciate Taka. Thereby our competitiveness in export market will grow resulting in improved current account balance.

Things are complicated in reality.Any depreciation of local currency deteriorates the current account balance in the short run but it eventually improves it in the long run. Because market responds slowly to such changes.

As our imports and MLT loan payments are growing , any depreciation of local currency has adverse impact on current account deficit and overall balance.

So far domestic investment remains sluggish and export growth does not hint that it will surpass import in future. So there is no reason to be optimistic about current account deficit and overall balance.

And it is the time we become serious about our external debt. Unless it is absolutely necessary, we should abstain ourselves from taking foreign loans. There are ample of examples how bad foreign debt not only drove wedge in relations between countries but precipitated political crisis at home.

Many at home often put forward our debt-to-GDP ratio as a reason to borrow more from abroad. Wise people say austerity is good when the economy is in good shape.