Sunday, March 22, 2026

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(21 mars --- 27 mars)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
21 Paratha,Poulet Pilaf,Poulet,Gourde bouteille Pilaf,Poulet Vermicelles,Egg jorda,Jorda,Payesh,Tchana Tchat,Custard
22 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Poulet,Ruhi,Egg jorda,Gourde bouteille,Courge amère,Chicken kofteh,Yaourt sucré,Jorda,Gulabjamun Riz,Poulet,Courge amère ---
23 Paratha,Légumes Riz,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles --- Jhalmuri(Riz gonflé avec tchana et tchanatchur),Vermicelles
24 Paratha,Poulet Riz,Petit poisson,Aubergine,Gourde serpent Riz,Petit poisson,Gourde serpent,Œuf,Pianju Jhalmuri,Tchira

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Will Taka Remain Stable?

War leads to further rise in inflation,
Policy rate cut may cause depreciation.

Last week exchange rate of Taka reached 123.30 against US dollar. Now the rate settled at Tk 122.75 per USD. The ongoing war in the Middle East cast a shadow over remittance inflow and supply of energy through the strait of Hormuz. Moreover, govt changed Bangladesh Bank governor abruptly and the new governor hinted to lower the policy rate while inflation rate increased further and hovering around 9.13% in February. In January ,it was 8.58%. In this backdrop, serious question raised over continuity of regulatory discipline.

Throughout the fasting month of Ramzan ,key kitchen items registered higher prices. A new war in the Middle East risks worsening the inflation by causing supply problems [for] energy and spiking the fuel price. Despite govt assurance of no fuel crisis at home, the long queue of motorbikes and cars in front of petrol pumps is a testament to panic prevailing at the ground. Central banks of major economies already shelve their plans to lower policy rate while ours one walks on a different direction. Furthermore, abrupt dismissal of governor sent a wrong signal abroad about commitment to reforms. It may delay improvement of our credit ratings, causing troubles to get foreign credit for private sector.

Taking a look at major macroeconomic indicators tells that time is indeed not right for a policy rate slash. During July-January period of 2025-26, export declined to $26.09 billion from $26.36 billion in 2024-25. Trade deficit increased to $13.79 billion in 2025-26(July-January) from $11.74 billion in 2024-25(July-January). Current account deficit declined to $381 million in 2025-26(July-January) million from $1.31 billion in in 2024-25(July-January),riding on growth of remittance. Remittance rose to $19.43 billion in 2025-26(July-January) from $15.96 billion in 2025-26(July-January)(See https://www.bb.org.bd/en/index.php/econdata/bop). Despite improvement in current account deficit, situation is not right for discarding the tight momentary policy. [Particularly] when the war may derail the growth of remittance. At one hand trade deficit is growing ,on the other rising import and uncertainty over remittance put overall macroeconomic situation at a precarious position. In this situation, lowering the policy rate will increase the depreciation pressure on Taka against other currencies. Any wild fall of Taka worsens inflationary situation through pass-through effect of the new exchange rate.

Moreover, further worsening of war will spike fuel prices and deteriorate inflation in advanced economies, where most of our exportable items go. This will cut the purchasing power of their nationals and lower overall consumption. Declining trend of export will further cause depreciation pressure on Taka. When exchange rate and inflation rate will both rise ,real effective exchange rate will fall further given denominator part of the formula remains same(look at the formula).

REER at period t= (Exchange rate index of a country x Inflation rate of the country)x 100÷(Average of trading partners' exchange rate index x weight x Average of inflation rates in partner countries)

Exchange Rate Index at t= (Exchange rate of a county's currency at t)÷(Exchange rate of a county's currency at base period)

So far US dollar appreciated against other currencies following the start of the war. Since we do trade with other partners in USD ,a stronger USD translates into depreciation of real exchange rate of Taka given other things remain same. However, inflation is likely to rise amid escalating war . When average of inflation rates in partner countries is higher than exchange rate of Taka and inflation at home,then Taka will appreciate in real term (see the formula).

Stability of Taka depends on many things. But so far the development indicates Taka is likely to depreciate further if the war turns out to be a protracted one. We coped with 40% depreciation of Taka all these years. Similar or more depreciation will be unbearable for us. So cautious monetary policy ,which implies a tighter one, will be good for us. Does the central bank have courage and commitment to do so?

Saturday, March 14, 2026

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(14 mars --- 20 mars)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner/Début de jeûne Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures/Fin de jeûne
14 Riz,Courge amère, Ruhi,Banane,Lait ---- Patate douce Pois chiches, Tchira(Riz battu avec lait),Pomme,Carotte,Tehari,Poulet,Vermicelles
15 Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet --- --- Pois chiches,Riz gonflé,Tchira,Pianju,Tchop,Halim,Naan rôti,Jilapi,Datte,Pomme,Carotte
16 Riz, Ruhi avec moringa ---- --- Pois chiches, Tchira(Riz battu avec lait),Pomme,Datte,Carotte,Tchop,Jilapi,Pianju
17 Riz,Poulet --- --- Pois chiches,Riz gonflé,Datte,Pomme,Carotte,Vermicelles
18 Riz,Lait,Banane --- --- Pois chiches,Beguni,Vermicelles,Pomme,Carotte,Khichuri,Œuf,Moringa avec tige de taro
19 Riz,Moringa avec sec ruban et tige de taro --- Pilaf,Poulet,Œuf Pois chiches,Beguni,Pianju,Meat ball,Riz gonflé, Jilapi
20 Riz,Lait,Banane --- Riz,Shoal,Goutde bouteille,Œuf Pois chiches,Beguni,Vermicelles,Pomme,Carotte

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

E-rickshaw: Bane Or Boon?

Dhaka streets dominated by e-rickshaw,
Missing bill lays bare the objective flaw.

Recently, a news report divulged that electric [rickshaws] in Dhaka city cost the govt Tk 40 billion as missing electricity bill. Over 1 million e-rickshaw[s] now ply over Dhaka city. Sympathy stemming from popularity of e-rickshaw led the authority to allow more than 3000 charging points across Dhaka. But in reality the number of charging points surpassed 50000 long ago. These points clandestinely charge e-rickshaw everyday, resulting in annual loss of electricity bill worth Tk 40 billion(See"Bangla Tesla Boom Drains Nearly Tk 4000 Crore Power Theft A Year In Dhaka",Jahidul Islam,The Business Standard, December 03,2025)

Energy efficient, pollution free,employment opportunities at the city maybe the reasons for allowing e-rickshaw on the streets of Dhaka. However, closer scrutiny laid bare hollowness of the [arguments]. The loss of Tk 40 billion nailed the argument of energy efficiency. Fossil fuel used to produce that electricity will not get back to govt coffer. Moreover, govt has to spend more to recuperate the loss. The growing number of e-rickshaw means more import of LNG and furnace oil to produce electricity to charge the e-rickshaw! More import of fossil fuel increases pollution. Higher earning prospect lured many rural laborers to Dhaka ,worsening urban density and public health at cramped accommodation places. It further increases the risk of fire incidents, organized criminal activity. At the same time, at individual level, it is subject of closer scrutiny that it really reduces transportation cost. Reality is that it is no longer cheaper. In some cases, it is worsening traffic system, deteriorating law and order situation. In a span of two years, we saw e-rickshaw pullers attacked traffic police booth and Metro station in Dhaka.

Nowadays, electric vehicles are becoming popular mode of transportation as growing sign of ditching fossil fuel fed vehicles. Bangladesh is no exception, overwhelming presence of e-rickshaw in the streets of Dhaka is the manifestation. Could we really get rid of fossil fuel or half its consumption? Economist William Stanley Jevons observed that efficient use of an energy source ,caused by technological advancement, led to more consumption of that energy source instead of lowering its consumption later. It is known as Jevons paradox. Energy efficiency is supposed to lower consumption of a particular energy source. But opposite is happening! Jevons watched that Watt's steam engine,a brand new thing back then and more efficient than other engines, consumed less coal but total coal consumption increased because of widespread use of this new energy-efficient engine. What is worrying the consumption of that energy source is more when the good/service is more responsive to price changes (price elastic demand). Use of electricity instead of petrol/diesel made transportation/ travel cheaper and thereby increase the demand for transportation/travel. More people travel than before. Subsequent study of Jevons paradox shows that increased energy efficiency leads to increase [in] income and economic growth,causing [overall ndemand to rise](See Jevons Paradox,Wikipedia) . Clearly, key motivation behind allowing e-rickshaw is backfiring! Undoubtedly, rickshaw puller's income augmented manifold from switching paddle rickshaw to electric version. It drew more people to this vocation and increased the number of this vehicle. Now look at the cost. Govt allotted Tk 90 billion for LNG subsidy and Tk 200 billion for power subsidy in this year's budget. Moreover, it abolished 15% VAT on LNG import, risking its revenue collection target. LNG is the main source of electricity generation in this country,followed by furnace oil and coal. Missing bill of Tk 40 billion is a mockery to that subsidy run by taxpayer's money. There is clearly a loss in revenue. In addition ,more public spending in the next year for meeting need for even greater number of e-rickshaw. Nowadays, price of electric scooter drops. An e-scooter costs around Tk 30000 or Tk 40000. This allows students,women [and other income group] to have an e-scooter ,increasing the total number of bike riders in the capital. Use of electricity instead of fuel brought down per kilometer cost of transportation. But it also increases the number of vehicles and commuters. Consequently, to run those vehicles, we need more electricity. And more electricity generation means more fossil fuel. Not only that electricity from solar power plant ,nuclear power plant also needs backup. So in the end we need more fossil fuel run power plants not just to produce increased demand for electricity but to back up the electricity from renewable energy. That means we have to continue with the quick rental power plants,which we are trying to ditch, for quite some time.

It is indeed interesting that eco friendly and energy efficient arguments set the context for allowing e-rickshaw on Dhaka streets. But it is resulting in electricity loss,inefficient resource allocation, abuse of subsidy, and more fossil fuel consumption. A totally different outcome what the policymakers envisaged at the initial stage. It is time to revisit the policy objective of allowing e-rickshaw in Dhaka and to chalk out some course corrective measures.

Monday, December 8, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(06 décembre --- 12 décembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
06 Pain,Lait poudre Riz,Soupe aux lentilles Riz gonflé(depuis marché),Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---
07 Pain,Lait poudre Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois chiches(depuis marché) Riz gonflé(depuis marché),Pois chiches(depuis marché) --
08 Pain,Pois chiches(depuis marché),Œuf Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Navet,Radis,Petit poisson Riz gonflé(depuis marché),Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---
09 Pain,Œuf,Petit poisson Riz,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc Pain,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc --
10 Pain,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc Riz,Taro,Épinard malabar,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc --- ---
11 --- --- --- --

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(29 novembre --- 05 décembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
29 Khichuri,Œuf --- Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard d'eau(depuis marché),Pianju(depuis marché) ---
30 Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard d'eau(depuis marché),Chou fleur,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Pois chiches,Pianju(depuis marché) --
01 Pain,Chou fleur,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Bread toast(from market) ---
02 Pain,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Pois chiches(depuis marché) --
03 Pain,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Pain,Chou fleur ---
04 Pain,Chou fleur Riz,Chou fleur,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Chou fleur,Soupe aux lentilles --
05 Singara(depuis marché),Riz gonflé(depuis marché) Riz gonflé,Pois chiches(depuis marché) Riz gonflé,Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Flaws In Our Market

Imperfection lies in the market,
Collective efforts needed to make it perfect.

The basic ingredients of a perfectly competitive market have not been functioning well for a long time in Bangladesh. Let us take a look at key characteristics of this kind of market(source:Investopedia):

  • All firms sell identical product.
  • All firms are price takers,not price influencers.
  • Buyers(as well as sellers) have complete or perfect information about the product being sold and prices charged by each firm now,earlier and in the future.
  • Capital resources and labor are completely mobile
  • Market share does not influence price
  • Firms can enter or exit the market without cost.

There is however imperfection in every market and industry and pure competitive market is an idealized state. Nevertheless, govt,consumers and industry all thrive to achieve a perfectly competitive market or at least try to get as close to such an idealized state. Now let us see how these characteristics are violated in Bangladesh.

All firms are price takers is only possible when there exists a large number of buyers and sellers. Except kitchen market, most of the markets including consumer good market consist of few firms,which influence price. That means there is not too many sellers. Industry or market where initial investment is too high does not expect large number of producers. Utility, aviation can be presented as an example. But other industries which require relatively fair investment do not see enough market players. That means a good amount of entry barrier is put in place, deterring the entry of new firms. Biased govt policy,which is prevalent in this part of the world,is behind fostering the entry barrier. Rice,soybean oil market could be an apt example. International market prices are falling and current rate tells a price around Tk 46/kilo. But it is selling at much higher rate. Reason is unknown. But if govt considers consumer interests then awarding more permits to rice importers may make an impact. In the soybean oil market, few conglomerates were allowed to operate and in the change of events they showed their colors,creating a difficult situation to deal with. Moreover, proper documentation at the wholesale level of soybean oil market is not maintained, as I mentioned here several times. Tacit support to this kind of practices by the govt in the past contributed to the anarchy in the soybean oil market.

Flawed macroeconomic policy in the past led to higher policy rate hike later,[causing] barrier to new entrants in any industry. At the same time, exit from an industry is not that easy because many lending institutions sued many firms for not paying back the credit.

Capital resources and labor are not perfectly mobile here. In the past, credit often went to the projects that were not viable and that promoted creed loyalty over merit. Moreover, unaccountable development projects by govt limited private sector's access to credit as large part of bank's money went to finance these public projects. Similarly, politically motivated thrust sectors witness destruction of productive capital. Labor engaged in these sectors ,which are not so productive. There are just few companies in the consumer good market. So workers have little choice to go elsewhere.

Lack of information persists in the market. Consumers and small producers do not get the complete picture of the production cost. Moreover, motif of harvesting an industry often leads to narrative manufacturing. This disinformation/ lack of information prevents the consumer from making right choices and small producers from taking appropriate steps. Lack of proper regulatory environment is also a reason consumers not getting complete information about an industry.

It appears that too few firms and lack of regulatory environment are the main obstacles towards a perfectly competitive market in Bangladesh. If regulatory setup functioned properly,we did not have misallocation of credit in the banks. Regular auditioning and intervention by BCC,CAB,BTRC,BERC and BSEC will let consumers know why there are few firms in the industry ,true cost of production, why firms are not paying dividends despite making profits and what the future fiscal and energy policy will be. Market is not created with perfect competition. It is the collective efforts that will lead it to perfect competition.