La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 21 juin --- 27 juin)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
21	Pain,Œuf,Papaye	Riz,Ruhi,Gombo,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Lait	---
22	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Purée de papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Purée de papaye	Mangue
23	Riz,Œuf,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Épinard malabar,Gourd serpent,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches,Tchanatchur	Mangue
24	Pain,Gourd serpent,Œuf	Riz,Brinjal,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	Mangue,Jaquier
23	Riz,Œuf,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Épinard malabar,Gourd serpent,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches,Tchanatchur	Mangue
24	Pain,Gourd serpent,Œuf	Riz,Brinjal,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	Mangue,Jaquier
25	Pain,Œuf,Soupe aux Haricots mungo	Riz,Brinjal,Œuf	Riz gonflé,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Tête de Ruhi	---
26	Pain,Pomme de terre bhaji,Œuf	Riz,Petit taro chinois,Épinard d'eau	Riz gonflé,Lait	Mangue
27	Pain,Papaye bhaji,Mangue	Riz,Petit taro chinois,Poulet	---	---

Mob Justice & Seasonal Bureaucracy

Mob justice spares none, Bi-nationals make bureaucracy a subject of fun.

Police arrested two former chief election commissioners after a political party lodged case against them for holding rigged elections. What is troubling is the condemnable attack against one of them. It reminded us of the fate met by former high officials in China during the cultural revolution. It has been a little less than a year since the fall of Sheikh Hasina regime. Unfortunately, we have not seen yet any improvement of law and order.

In Bangladesh, constitutional bodies are toothless tiger and commissioners are mere office holders. They can school you,lecture you and advice you to do something or not to do something. Yes they are in charge of holding elections, but EC cannot hold alone any rigged or unfair election. Other state institutions were also involved. If EC and its people were involved in corruption ,then they should be tried accordingly. This disgust display of mob justice maligns the image of Bangladesh.

It would not be mere allegations if I say that former chief election commissioners fell victims to political vendetta. Mr Habibul Awal ,immediate past election commissioner, in one of his article questioned the legitimacy of this govt and suggested some constitutional actions(See"Fight For Legitimacy", August 29,2024,published here). That did not go well along the power corridor. So far the treatment of former bureaucrats is worse than the treatment they faced during the time of former regime.

What is interesting main protagonists of rigged elections were allowed to flee abroad but those staying back face all kinds of maltreatment before proper trial.

There has been no denying that the governance situation we are enduring now is the result of bureaucracy led by former bureaucrats who joined the service during the '80s, decade of dictatorship. Just check the background of our former runaway police chief,army chief, central bank governor and cabinet secretary. Their seniors were more prudent and exercised duties cautiously. They did not end up their career facing such an embarrassing situation.

There is a full blown civil war in Myanmar, yet very few Myanmar officials and rebels took refuge in the West. Bangladesh's situation is a lot better, yet these runaway former officials took refuge abroad and do not have the guts to face the press. There are many bi-nationals working in the bureaucracy. For the last two decades, there has been a tendency to go abroad during unfavorable regime and return to office during the favorable regime. By then the ordinary people face full brunt of their misgovernance. Very few face the legal and other consequences for their wrongdoings and corruption.

We are no nascent state,yet we are not matured enough to take prudent decisions. I think if we hire more foreign nationals (black/white) for key positions in the bureaucracy, central bank and other areas, there will be a great leap forward in the governance. New ideas, management and work environment will give the country vital transformation we badly need. The bureaucracy has become a "tamasha" (mockery) for this coming and going out of these bi-nationals at measured intervals.Things have not improved ,rather turned bad. Why do we not recruit foreign nationals (black/white) from abroad to make things better and reduce the incidence of proxy war?

Govt has so far failed to restore public order. There is hardly any qualitative change in law & order situation. Harassment of former election commissioner is an eye opener. Bi-nationals in the govt is not an issue,yet they seldom face consequences for their actions. Qualitative transformation in the bureaucracy requires recruitment of more foreign nationals (black/white) at advisory and technical level. It yielded good results for other countries, why it should not work for Bangladesh?

[Update: this piece has been updated by me at 14:30 Bangladesh Standard Time on June 26,2025.Update includes reference to the details of Kazi Habibul Awal's suggestion.]

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 14 juin --- 20 juin)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
14	Pain,Œuf,Pomme de terre bhaji	Riz,Brinjal,Épinard malabar,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé	---
15	Riz,Haricot vert,Œuf	Riz,Graine du jaquier et gourde épineuse et brinjal,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé	---
16	Pain ,Œuf	Riz,Pomme de terre,Petit poisson	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	---
17	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Petit poisson,Tête de Ruhi dans soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	---
18	Pain ,Œuf,Pomme de terre bhaji	Riz,Purée de graine de jaquier avec sec crevette,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Lait	---
19	Riz,Haricot vert,Œuf	Riz,Latya,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Latya poisson,Haricot vert,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles/td>	---
20	Pain ,Œuf,Mangue	Riz,Gobie charmante,Graine du jaquier avec gourde épineuse	Riz,Gobie charmante,Papaye	---

Pension Scheme Says It All

Less response to national pension scheme Hints governance situation is poor and grim.

It has been more than two years since the govt introduced the Universal Pension Scheme, being the 5th country in the subcontinent. However, the former govt did it as a desperate measure to get funds from the people. I also questioned such measure as in this part of the world govt lacks clarity in spending public money and widespread abuse of public fund management is pretty common here (see " Do We Need Social Security Program? " June 16,2022, and "Universal Pension Bill: Could It Really Take Off?" January 27,2023). Less spontaneous response to pension scheme says how people greeted it. Only 300000+ people subscribed to it, generating a total of Tk 1.57 billion.

The scheme is based on three acts: the Pension Fund Management Act 2023, the Pension Fund Regulations Act 2024 and the Pension Fund Investment Act 2024. The Pension Fund Investment Act says that the fund cannot be invested abroad. It should be invested in treasury bonds, securities with AAA rating, any public project undertaken by the govt ,FDR and mutual funds. Apart from govt securities, investment in other assets should not cross 25% of the fund. For govt securities, there is no limit on investment.

This investment in public projects is a spirit killer. Here cost and benefit analysis of public projects are done to convince the policy makers and public and to hide the true cost of the projects, resulting in more taxes and cut in benefits. Why should one be interested in contributing to projects that will literally generate little or no returns?

Only secured assets for investments are treasury bonds and mutual funds. The scope for growing the Pension Fund is limited. Like provident fund of a private company, bigger and larger pension fund means more people can take loans from the fund to cater to their need for building a home,augmenting income, financing higher education of children, financing treatment etc.

Pension Fund will grow more if it is allowed to invest abroad in the commodity markets in London,Dubai and Singapore. At the same time it should be allowed to finance investment projects of the NRBs. For instance, if migrant Bangladeshi or NRBs get credit to open a restaurant, a barber shop, purchase a taxi or start a grocery , it would augment his income and become a genuine source of returns for the pension fund.

By the same token, at home,if we have two /three govt-backed home-credit institutions who will finance real estate projects undertaken by companies floated through public private partnership, then lower income group would be able to purchase apartments at affordable [price]. And they will become a great source of investment for the pension fund.

Not only that if SMEs and startups are financed through SME bonds and startup bonds then pension fund may get other areas to invest.

Quintessential is who is managing the fund. If we hire investment banker, hedge fund manager from abroad then these foreign nationals will take good care of it. Prior to that we need to fix the macroeconomic environment. For that the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank should be led by professional foreign macroeconomist who can advice the govt what steps have to be taken and what not.

Given the governance situation in the country, running too many social security programs and pension scheme sounds like luxury. Introducing new technology and spending public money will serve little if governance situation, which depends on practice and habits, does not improve dramatically. The apt example is the launching of voter ID card with photo that later became the national ID card. Bangladesh was the first country in the subcontinent to launch such a project in 2007 to bring transparency in pubic spending. Then British foreign state minister David Miliband even took part in the event with much fanfare. Unfortunately, we saw rigged elections and misappropriation of public money in spite of the presence of such cards. Abuse of social benefits of freedom fighter is another example. Only when the proper NID based database was launched ,many fraud freedom fighters got caught. The same NID is used by private mobile phone operators to sell SIM without any trouble. It is the intention and application that matters.

Bangladesh was the first country in the subcontinent to launch NID with photo and 5th in terms of launching the pension scheme. This kind of new things did little help to ease the burden of ordinary people. Dilapidated condition of the governance turns these things into a mockery instead reducing people's woes.

Trade Deal Favors Depreciation

Trade deal between two leading economies Creates depreciation pressure with less worries.

Both the USA and China successfully concluded a trade deal, clearing the ambiguities amid tariff war. As part of the agreement the USA will impose 55% tariff on Chinese goods while the China will levy 10% tariff on American goods. In addition, China will resume export of rare earth minerals vital for electronics industry and continue sending students to the USA.

Though the deal appears to give a sigh of relief, global trade still remains volatile amid US declared policy on easing the pressure on US dollar demand or weakening the USD.

The deal has implications for Bangladesh as well. Now we exactly know how much the China has to depreciate its currency to stay competitive in the US market. A 55% depreciation of Yuan will make the exchange rate 11.11 Yuan/USD. If the Chinese govt really allows this depreciation, then Chinese products in the US market will not witness increase in prices. So inflation in the USA will not be worse as disseminated by some quarter.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh is still in negotiations with the USA. It is facing a 37% tariff, which is likely to get lowered after successful negotiations. Current budget has proposed to remove VAT on LNG,soybeans and animal feed. It appears that LNG and soybeans may be on the list of Bangladeshi negotiating team. Bangladesh spends billions of dollars importing these two important items. In any eventuality, Bangladesh has to depreciate its currency between Tk 134.20/USD(for 10% depreciation) and Tk 167.52/USD (for 37% depreciation).

Luckily, Bangladesh govt removed tariffs from major agricultural inputs ,leading to lower the food inflation. If fuel prices stay stable, then Bangladesh has a good chance to depreciate its currency further without incurring serious inflationary pressure. The World Bank projection shows growth cut for the global economy, meaning less demand for goods in 2026. This will put downward pressure on major commodities.

The trade deal also put forward a new issue. The USA wants a weakened dollar in the years to come. The China with the resumption of trade will acquire USD and start buying treasury bonds , increasing the demand for USD. The US states passed laws that bar Chinese investment in agricultural land and purchasing property deemed near to sensitive area. Given the dwindling state of Chinese housing and capital market, a large part of the money will end up buying US treasury bonds , further complicating the US steps to weaken USD. It means there will be depreciation pressure on other currencies including Taka unless the USA comes up with a contingency plan.

The recent trade deal between the USA and China will bring pace to other bilateral trade negotiations. Hoping this will lead the trade talks between Bangladesh and the USA to see a successful end. Since there is no appreciation pressure on Taka for now, govt may consider to depreciate Taka further to make Bangladeshi goods more competitive.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 7 juin --- 13 juin)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
07	Riz gonflé	Riz,Batasio tengra,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Batasio tengra,Petit taro chinois	Mangue
08	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	---
09	Pain ,Œuf	Riz,Orphie de l'eau douce,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Orphie de l'eau douce	---
10	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Brinjal, Lentilles bhuna	Riz,Brinjal,Lentilles bhuna	---
11	Pain ,Œuf	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec ruban	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec ruban	---
12	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec ruban	Riz,Batasio Tengra	---
13	Riz rassis,Batasio Tengra,Brinjal	Riz,Épinard malabar,Batasio Tengra	Riz,Épinard malabar,Ruhi	---

Budget Aims Inflation

Budget aims at lowering inflation, Trust restored after announcement of election.

Govt announced that the next election will be held on the first week of April next year. The announcement will clear further ambiguities surrounding election. Uncertainties will be further reduced by this announcement. Though the decision will send a positive signal, it has disappointed some parties which demand early election by December this year.

Law and order condition has not improved dramatically yet. But inflationary pressure is less compared to three months ago. Lowering fuel prices will have positive impact in coming months. Governor himself reiterated that the central bank would lower the policy rate when the inflation rate would fall below 7%.

Since the revenue target has not been achieved yet, it is still uncertain whether Bangladesh will be able to grab the next IMF loan. But govt lowered import duties on LNG and refined sugar. LNG has been increasingly used in power generation and fertilizer production. It will help bringing down the cost of power generation and fertilizer production. There is a tradeoff between revenue collection and bringing down the cost of agricultural inputs. Only time will tell whether it is a good move.

Govt also raised the taxes on land purchase and apartment sale. In addition, VAT was also raised for scrap metal, real estate agencies, imported lifts etc. This will contribute to raise the price of apartments many folds. High-end apartments nowadays become liquid assets. Since tax laws allow clandestine capital in this market, many intensively used the sector to document the undocumented wealth. With some paperworks apartments can be turned into cash. This practice drove the prices of apartments higher and deprived the govt of vital revenue as taxes were lower all these years. Govt intended to stop this practice by raising VAT and other duties on land purchase and apartment sale. However, govt lowered the registration fees and claimed other VATs surpassed the lowering of registration fees.

Now time will tell how effective it will become. I think there should be two or more public companies in partnership with private companies who will build cheap apartments for lower income group across the cities in Bangladesh. Pension fund will also get a secured investment in these companies. Property prices go up year by year, so return on investment will not fall.

Lowering taxes on packed liquid milk, animal feed, neutralized soybean oil, will have positive impact in containing the inflation. The proposed budget aims at lowering inflation, a priority task for the govt. If the IMF credit is missed,there will be further tightening of belt through spending cut. I do not think govt has the capacity to grab Tk 5.6 trillion as revenue from the market next year. It has to make further spending cut to make the deficit slim. The specific election date will help to gain investors' confidence and that of overseas credit institutions, which the economy badly needs.

Govt's Twin Challenges

The budget deficit and revenue shortfall Create future tax burden for all.

Attaining the revenue target has become so important for the govt. Till April, govt managed to collect Tk 2.89 trillion against a target of Tk 3.58 trillion. National Board of Revenue (NBR) has yet to furnish the data on May. The IMF set the revised target to be Tk 4.35 trillion for the current fiscal year. The shortfall reached Tk 1.46 trillion. It would be a spectacle to watch how the NBR will meet this gap in the next 28 days of this fiscal year. Meeting this target is vital for getting the next IMF credit package. Revenue generation is also crucial for bridging the budget deficit, which is 4% of GDP this year, and the target is set to be 3.65% for the next fiscal year.

Tk 2.26 trillion could be more than halved if NBR bags the shortfall of Tk 1.46 trillion. Missing the credit means we will lose vital source of financing the budget deficit, resulting in a wider budget deficit that nobody wants.

Govt's deficit financing plan consists of Tk 1.26 trillion internal borrowing and Tk 1.35 trillion foreign borrowing. This Tk 1.35 trillion of foreign borrowing will become extremely costly if the negotiations between the govt and the IMF fall apart. Moreover, govt's dependence on internal borrowing, mostly from banks (Tk 1.04 trillion), rises in this scenario. Govt is also relaxing conditions for investment on National Savings Certificate (NSC). This will definitely increase govt's spending on interest payment, eating away vital spending on other social security program.

Lowering the budget deficit is crucial for maintaining long term macroeconomic stability. Bigger deficits mean govt needs to borrow more from home and abroad, piling up the debt. Failure to lower the deficit puts pressure on subsequent future govt's. Since this govt has less political affiliation, it does not have any obligation to run a huge annual development program. Implementation of ADP is fraught with corruption and resource missallocation. ADP creates jobs,investment in rural areas is a banal political rhetoric. Look what happened to the govt that had implemented inflated ADP for all these years!

The govt has two ways to lower the budget deficit : increasing the revenue and cutting the ADP expenditure. There will be overwhelming effort for revenue generation next year to meet the target of Tk 5.18 trillion, there is no doubt. But for the remaining days of this year, govt can boost revenue by depreciating Taka through foreign exchange market intervention. The central bank can start procuring dollar and weaken Taka by 2/3%. Govt has just lowered the fuel prices and it will offset any resulting inflationary pressure. The move will augment revenue earning from import. This move can be coupled with dramatic cut in the rest of the ADP for this year. Political govt has a tendency to spend ADP money at the last leg of the fiscal year. This govt lacks this tendency, I believe, and so can slash the ADP spending significantly.

Tk 2.26 trillion can be lowered significantly if we lower the ADP spending. This will ease the pressure on revenue collection. And relieve the ordinary people from the heat of direct and indirect taxes.

Tk 2.3 trillion ADP spending can be lowered to Tk 1.5 or Tk 1.7 trillion. Missing the revenue target and failure to lower the deficit will push us towards costly bilateral option. Often bilateral arrangement may lead to sell national flag career or one or two utility companies. It may be OK for some ,but problematic to others. So doubling our effort to revenue generation and to lower further the deficit should be the priority.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 31 mai --- 6 juin)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
31	Pain,Œuf	Riz, Soupe aux lentilles,Orphie d'eau douce	Riz,Orphie d'eau douce,Soupe aux lentilles	--
01	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Épinard malabar,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Riz,Sec crevette avec graine du jacquier,Feuilles de gourde de bouteilles	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	---
02	Pain,Œuf	Riz, Soupe aux lentilles,Sec Hilsa salé ,Épinard malabar,Feuilles de gourde de bouteilles	Riz, Soupe aux lentilles,Sec Hilsa salé ,Épinard malabar,Feuilles de gourde de bouteille	---
03	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Épinard malabar,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Riz,Épinard malabar,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	---
04	Pain,Œuf	Riz, soupe aux lentilles,sec crevette avec graine du jacquier,Purée de pomme de terre,Brinjal	Riz, soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre,Brinjal	---
05	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Purée de brinjal,Ruhi,Gombo,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Lait	---
06	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Batasio tengra,Petit taro chinois,Gombo,Luffa	Riz,Batasio tengra,Petit taro chinois,Gombo	Mangue