Flaws In The Leather Industry

Lack of certification and flaws in design Hold back the leather sector from doing fine.

Grievance of rawhide traders and rotting of unsold rawhide have become a recurrent image after Eid al Adha, when millions of animals are slaughtered in a religious ritual. This year is no different. Despite Bangladesh being the top Muslim majority country where highest number of animals is sacrificed during Eid, its leather export is still hovering around $1 billion. This year 9.3 million animals were slaughtered and 3.1 million rawhides were destined to rot near road side. This is a govt furnished data.

The reason for stagnating leather export is bizarre. Government relocated most of the tanneries at tannery estate,built by the govt,in Savar. Later it was found that its Central Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP) does not meet the criteria,set by EU, to deal with chromium laden sludge(see "Compliance Failure Costs The Bangladesh Leather Sector Up to $10 billion",Shafiun Nahar Elma,Textile Today,January 01,2026,https://textiletoday.com.bd/compliance-failure-costs-the-bangladesh-leather-sector-up-to-10-billion). This failure in compliance leads to [postponement of] Leather Working Group (LWG) certification, which is crucial to get international clients. In addition, LWG certification is needed at various levels in the industry including traceability of leather,use of chemicals etc. More than 50% of our tanneries are not compliant.

UNDP in a study titled "Investing In Bangladesh's Leather Industry: Challenges & Solutions" finds that lack of environmental compliance costs export earnings between $5 billion and $10 billion annually. Lack of certification results in 30% or 40% lower prices for leather in international market.

What is interesting LWG certification issue pushed Bangladesh to sell its wet blue leather to China at a lower price. Bangladesh's leather industry is now heavily reliant on Chinese buyers for its leather export. This increasing reliance blocks us from getting a competitive export price. China emerges as a price setter for our leather industry in the [wake] of LWG certification issue. This status quo needs to be changed.

UNDP study suggests that resolving the certification issue and additional investment between $300 million and $400 million [in product diversification] will bring $5 billion worth of leather export earnings by 2032.

Bangladesh needs to alter image of exporter of raw materials and should emerge as exporter of high-end finished goods. In that endeavor leather industry offers a high potential. Some design flaw in infrastructure,lack of awareness in certification issues and lack of investment in product diversification are holding back the industry from taking off.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(06 juin --- 12 juin)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
06	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Épinard malabar,Pama croaker	---	Puri,Mangue,Litchi,Chocolat
07	Paratha,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Épinard malabar	Riz gonflé,Lait	Mangue,Litchi,Chocolat
08	Paratha,Œuf,Pomme de terre	Riz,Louffa,Petit poisson	Riz gonflé,Soupe aux lentilles	Puri,Litchi,Banane
09	Pain,Œuf,Papaye bhaji	Riz,Aïr poisson,Épinard d'eau	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	Mangue,Litchi,Banane
10	Pain,Œuf,Papaye	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	Mangue,Litchi,Banane
11	Pain,Gourde bouteille,Œuf	Riz,Petit poisson,Yardlong beans	Riz gonflé,Lait,Banane	Sucreries,Jamun
12	Pain,Œuf,Yardlong beans	Riz,Aïr poisson,Feuilles de Moringa,Yardlong beans	Riz gonflé,Soupe aux lentilles	Sucreries,Jamun,Litchi,Mangue,Patate douce

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(30 mai --- 05 juin)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
30	Pain,Banane	Riz,Gourde bouteille	---	Banane,Mangue,Riz gonflé
31	Patate douce,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Gourde bouteille, Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	Khichudi,Paratha,Firni,Atchar	Mangue,Gâteau, Banane
01	Pain,Œuf,Gourde serpent	Riz,Poulet,Gourde bouteille, Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Mangue,Banane,Riz gonflé,Litchi,Jamun
02	Paratha,Gourde bouteille,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Tige de taro,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Banane,Mangue,Riz gonflé,Pois chiches, Jamun
03	Paratha,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Yardlong beans,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Mangue,Litchi, Riz gonflé, Payesh
04	Riz gonflé, Lait	Riz,Gourde bouteille, Purée de pomme de terre,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles	Fried rice,Poulet,Légumes	Mangue, Litchi, Gâteau
05	Pain,Payesh	Riz,Gourde bouteille,Taposhe poisson,Épinard malabar,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Mangue,Litchi

Electricity Price Hike: Anticipated But Untimely

Electricity prices rise to save subsidy, No need for it as other options are ready.

Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission(BERC) in a press conference has hiked electricity prices 16.68% at the retail level and 19.85% at the wholesale level. Earlier govt raised Petrol and Octane prices by Tk 5 per liter. This was the second upward fuel price adjustment in less than six weeks. Successive fuel price hikes and the recent electricity price increase will have cumulative effect on inflation, which govt has failed to contain.

Recently govt is mulling to drop a clause that ensures old owners' control over troubled banks from Bank Resolution Act 2026. This all signals that govt is desperate to ink some sort of deal with multinational donor institutions to finance the next budget.

Not all utility prices have witnessed upward rise. Prices of LPG have been lowered by Tk 55 per cylinder. But the increase in electricity price and fuel price garners lots of attention. BERC in its own assessment found that Tk 1.25 per unit rise would lead to Tk 130 billion subsidy cut for the power sector in FY 2026-27(see "BERC To Raise Electricity Price Tk 1.25 per Unit",The Business Standard, May 21,2026, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangla/Economy/news-details-493406). If the subsidy cut is the main reason for the recent hike, then bigger subsidy cuts may be achieved by exploring other means. Industry insiders shed some light into it. Platform of steel manufacturers recently held a press conference and urged the government not to raise electricity price. The move is likely to dent in their competitiveness. They solicited to slash the subsidy spent for capacity charge instead. It is indeed good to see that BERC chairman paid heed the advice and forwarded the suggestion to the government.

It is indeed true that higher fuel and electricity price will lead to higher input prices and cottage, micro, small and medium enterprises will bear the most brunt of it. It is indeed unjust that to contain the system loss or distribution loss,which will be 7.37% of total distribution in FY 2026-27, govt passes the burden to honest retail customers.

But I do support electricity price hike for electric vehicles and E-rickshaw charging stations. The electric three-wheeler annually costs the govt Tk 40 billion of missing electricity bill (see "E-rickshaw: Bane or Boon?", published here,December 09,2025,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2025/12/e-rickshaw-bane-or-boon.html?m=1). I think it is a good idea to recuperate some of those lost electricity bill through higher prices and imposition of tax. The latter will be helpful to keep a close tab on regulating their numbers on the road.

Striking the balance between industry competitiveness and subsidy cut should be at the core of govt policy. Exploring options like reducing the capacity charge sounds more viable when it comes to attain the goal of subsidy cut. It is also in line with the inflation control measure the central bank is pursuing. It is anticipated that the new govt will raise the utility prices given the macroeconomic situation. But when other options are available govt could refrain from doing it to make our lives a little easier.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(23 mai --- 29 mai)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
23	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Purée de pomme de terre,Èpinard d'eau	---	Litchi,Mangue,Riz gonflé
24	Pain,Yardlong beans	Riz,Yardlong beans,Aïr poisson,Feuilles de moringa,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Riz gonflé,Mangue,Pois chiches
25	Pain,Pois blanc	Riz,Gombo,Feuilles de moringa,Aïr poisson	Morog Polao	Litchi,Mangue, Jaque,Patate douce
26	Pain,Lait	Riz,Aïr poisson,Feuilles de moringa,Sec latya avec aubergine et noix de jaque	---	Litchi,Jaque,Mangue,Patate douce
27	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Gombo,Feuilles de moringa,Ruhi poisson,Soupe aux lentilles, Purée de pomme de terre	---	Puri,Datte palmier
28	Pain,Vermicelles,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi poisson,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Œuf	Litchi,Mangue
29	Pain,Lait	Riz,Mouton,Poulet,Purée de poisson sec,Purée de sésame,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Mangue,Saboo,Dahi bada

Leave The Central Bank Alone

Use of central bank to meet electoral pledges Erodes gradually the safety hedges.

Bangladesh Bank in a surprise move announced Tk 60000 crore [stimulus package] in a bid to revive closed factories,support the cottage, micro,small and medium enterprises, diversify export,rejuvenate rural economy and create 2.5 million jobs.

The package has two components: Tk 41000 crore refinancing fund,which will be sourced from banks with surplus liquidity; another Tk 19000 crore will be sourced from Bangladesh Bank's (BB) own resources (see "Tk 60000 crore stimulus for private sector", Md Mehedi Hassan, The Daily Star, May 24,2026,https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/tk-60000cr-stimulus-private-sector-4183136).

Banks with excess liquidity will deposit the money at 10% interest rate. Targeted borrowers will borrow the money at 3% or 4% or 7% depending on the size of the enterprise and the rest 6% or 7% will be subsidized by the govt. It will cost the govt Tk 3000 crore annually.

Govt last week also expressed interest to move away from the ongoing IMF credit program and to ink a new deal with the Bretton Woods institution.

However, the central bank did not announce any change in the policy rate,suggesting contractionary monetary policy is still in action.

Meanwhile, central bank's decision is tantamount [to] monetary expansion,contrary to its ongoing policy!

Finance ministry would be the [just] authority to declare such stimulus package, where political aspiration is more pronounced. Central bank is a regulatory authority that is tasked with overseeing the regulatory discipline and [fine-tuning] its goals to ensure macroeconomic stability. It can extend its support to political govt as long as that support is viable in light of macroeconomic reality. That is why central bank's independence is so important. And central bank's resources are not meant for supporting political goals or electoral pledges.

To accomplish political objectives and to meet electoral pledges, govt has fiscal policy. It can [cut] subsidy here to augment subsidy elsewhere. It can slash tax here to increase tax elsewhere. Central bank can come to aid if existing macroeconomic reality calls for such help.

Inflation is persistently above 9% and so is the inflation expectation.

Former World Bank lead economist to Bangladesh Zahid Hussain called into question relevance of this stimulus package in his article titled "Stimulus in a supply-constrained economy". He argues," The package is framed as countercyclical intervention. That logic works best when an economy is suffering from weak demand,low inflation, and temporarily idle productive capacity. Bangladesh today faces a more difficult combination: growth is slowing while inflation remains elevated and persistent.
In such conditions, additional stimulus does not automatically translate into higher output. If supply cannot respond, it may raise prices faster than production."(see "Stimulus in a supply-constrained economy", Zahid Hussain, The Daily Star, May 23,2026,https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/stimulus-supply-constrained-economy-4182846)

Instead of going for monetary expansion, govt can opt for fiscal policies through resource reallocation. Recently, platform of steel manufacturers in a press conference urged govt not to raise electricity price. They solicited slashing the subsidy spent on capacity charge for the power plants. This is indeed a good advice that govt must pay heed. The saved subsidy then will be used to refinance closed factories and rejuvenate the rural economy.

Even the banking industry offers alternative solution. Chairman of the Association of Bankers,Bangladesh (ABB), in an interview with the Daily Star said central bank could lower the cash reserve ratio (CRR) to increase liquidity in the market(see "Tk 60000 crore stimulus for private sector"). This is a good advice in this time of inflation. Chinese central bank did similar thing to increase money flow for the private sector amid high inflation.

Banks know their clients well. If the stimulus comes into effect, then it will force good banks with ample liquidity to channel funds to problematic clients of the troubled banks. Despite central bank's guarantee, the [package] pushes good banks to bet on clients whose initiatives may bear risk for the banks.

Central bank itself has poor record in managing its own Equity and Entrepreneurship Fund(EEF),which is full of scams. It will be indeed interesting to watch how transparently and efficiently BB [will] manage such a large pool of fund.

Charging multiple interest rates to different entities has its challenges. Cheap credit may end up [being invested into] treasury bills, which offer safe returns, [compromising] govt's intended goals of increasing production and creating jobs. Or the cheap money may be lent to others at higher rates,further compromising the true objectives.

In brief, central bank is a regulatory body to oversee monetary discipline. Govt can use fiscal tools to fulfill its electoral pledges and central bank can only help in that endeavor if the macroeconomic context is right. The stimulus package has the potential to turn the good banks into bad. Past record of central bank's fund management does not provide room for optimism.

Need For Quarterly MPS

Unfulfilled remain the MPS objectives, Quarterly MPS for timely directives.

The Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for January-June 2026 is about to expire in June. Most of its goals remain unfulfilled. First take a look at its key objectives. The objectives are "to anchor inflation expectations, guide inflation toward BB's target, address the unacceptably elevated NPLs, and restore public confidence in the banking system through improved governance and close coordination with fiscal and other relevant authorities" (see Monetary Policy, Bangladesh Bank,https://www.bb.org.bd/en/index.php/monetaryactivity/monetarypolicy).

Restoring public confidence in banking system hit a dead end when govt passed mutilated Bank Resolution Act 2025,allowing wrongdoers to regain control of the bank. The Deposit Protection Ordinance 2025 further signals that govt will be obliged to pay each depositor a maximum of Tk 2 lac in case of any bank goes bankrupt,further thickening suspicion of closure of troubled banks.

The abrupt dismissal of previous governor is no sign "improved governance" and further makes hole into public confidence in the banking system.

War in the Middle East came as unforeseen shock. Amid shortfall of revenue and rising oil prices in the international market, govt raised fuel prices at home. It will have an upward pressure on kitchen commodity prices. Inflation already rose to 9.04% in April from 8.71% in March. High oil prices in international market also provoked higher inflation in major economies ,including our key export and import markets. Uncertainties stemming from war and rising inflation make a dent in consumer activity in our export destinations. In addition, imported goods will be costlier because of rising price levels in importing countries. Notwithstanding inflation easing expectations in the MPS, inflation as well as general inflation expectation is set to rise.

Contrary to MPS optimism about policy rate cuts across the globe, many central banks shelved their plans of policy rate cuts in the wake of war,fearing inflationary pressure. Delay in policy rate cut delays investment projects and business expansion ,further shrinking consumer activity. Against this backdrop, foreign financing gets costlier. So govt depends more on banks for financing the budget ,leaving little to the private sector. The MPS keeps the policy rate (10%) same but it has lowered Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) from 8% to 7.5% in a bid to generate more credit to private sector. But Bangladesh Bank's own finding reveals that private sector credit growth rate in January and in February was 6.05% ,lowest in 23 years( see "Rin e 23 Bochhorer Moddhey Sorbo Nimno Probriddhi(Lowest private sector credit growth in 23 years)", Daily Prothom Alo,May 21,2026).

The lowering of SDF did not help much. Rather banks find it safe and lucrative to lend money to govt and to buy govt securities. Let us see how the private sector credit behaves in the remaining four months.

The MPS acknowledges that the NPL reached 36% of total loans in September 2025. Given the dull economic situation and less commitment to financial reform, the NPL is likely to rise. However , govt reiterates its commitment to true auditing of businesses.

Despite pressure for lowering the policy rate, the central bank cannot slash it as inflation rate is still hovering above 9%. In the last quarter(April-June) of this fiscal year, there is little chance that inflation will reach the BB's desired 7% level. Now it is interesting to see how the govt reviews its reform commitment and addresses the pending issues in its future policies.

If the MPS were published quarterly,then it would review the policy objectives and fine tune the goals in light of emerging realities. Six months is a long time for such adjustment. Four MPSs in a given year will be more appropriate in this fast changing world.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(16 mai --- 22 mai)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
16	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Sec crevette avec aubergine et noix de jaque,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Toast biscuit,Riz gonflé
17	Pain,Œuf,Yaourt	Riz,Poulet,Feuilles de taro	---	Sucreries
18	Pain,Yard long beans	Riz,Ruhi,Sec crevette avec aubergine et noix de jaque,Soupe aux lentilles,Feuilles de taro	---	Sucreries,Riz gonflé
19	Pain,Œuf,Gourde serpent	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Petit poisson,Soupe aux vigna mungo	---	Singara
20	Pain,Œuf,Lait	Riz,Tige de Taro avev sec latya,Petit poisson	---	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches,Mangue
21	Pain,Papaye	Riz,Aïr poisson,Épinard d'eau	---	Riz gonflé,Lait,Mangue,Litchi
22	Pain,Œuf,Tige de taro	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Aïr poisson,Tige de Taro avev sec latya	Riz,Latya,Poulet,Crevettes, Papaye	Gâteau,Mangue

Rating Agencies Downgrade Bangladesh

Dull economic condition & poor reform initiative Turn Fitch Ratings outlook negative.

Fitch Ratings keeps Bangladesh's rating same,B+,but downgrades outlook from stable to negative (see "Fitch revises down Bangladesh outlook to negative ",The Business Standard, May 14,2026,https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/fitch-revises-bangladesh-outlook-negative-affirms-b-rating-1438136). It underscores challenges macroeconomic stability faces in the wake of rising external pressures like escalation of tensions in the Middle East,rise in fuel prices etc.

Such downgrading will make foreign credit more costly. Despite continuous swelling of forex reserve, Fitch notes that forex reserve condition may sharply deteriorate if the war in the Middle East turns worst.

This downgrading comes at a moment when BBS divulged that general inflation rose to 9.04% in April from 8.71% in March(see "Bangladesh Inflation Snapshot:2026",The Business Standard, May 11,2026,https://www.tbsnews.net/infograph/numbers/bangladesh-inflation-snapshot-april-2026-1436091). It is the non-food inflation that contributed greatly to the rise of inflation in April.

Recent fuel price hike is likely to raise non-food inflation further. Since there is an upward pressure on inflation, any slash in policy rate is highly unlikely in near future.

Inflation rate remains higher than central bank's desired 6% or 7% rate,Fitch report highlights.

Bangladesh's growing Non-Performing Loans (NPL),which is now 30% of total loan, is causing mayhem in the banking system,Fitch observes.

The IMF set a target to reduce NPL to 8%(see "IMF's Second Review on Credit Program",published here on June 27,2024,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/06/imfs-second-review-on-credit-program.html?m=0).There is no sign of NPL reduction; instead it grows day by day. The 8% target seems an uphill task right now.

We missed both the inflation and NPL reduction targets set by the IMF. In addition, abrupt dismissal of the past governor and allowing wrongdoers to regain control of the bank in the bank resolution act sent a wrong signal abroad about our commitment to genuine reforms.

Splitting NBR into policy and implementation departments is another IMF benchmark that remains unfulfilled. When there is suggestion for subsidy cut,govt plans to borrow heavily from domestic and foreign sources to finance the budget. Despite fuel price hike ,govt plans to borrow $2 billion for fuel import.

Govt also misses revenue target. To raise revenue, govt doubles source tax for key kitchen items including rice,edible oil,onion and pulses. It will fetch Tk 5 billion ,govt hopes. Not only that govt is mulling to tax motorbikes and e-rickshaws. Taxing the motorbikes will net another Tk 10 billion. Taxing the e-rickshaw is a good move to regulate their number.

There is no visible policy on how to tackle the NPL. No policy on how to fill the void created by NPL. And ordinary citizens are paying the price in the kitchen market and in the public transport.

Inflation, NPL,banking reform and revenue reform so far remain disappointing. And it is reflected in ratings made by agencies. Earlier, Moody's set the credit rating for Bangladesh at B2 with negative outlook. Standard & Poor's credit rating for Bangladesh set at B+ with stable outlook (see "Bangladesh-credit rating", Trading Economics,https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/rating). I won't be surprised if Standard & Poor's outlook becomes negative following Fitch's outlook. In short, dilapidated economic conditions make foreign credit costlier.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(09 mai --- 15 mai)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
09	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Petit poisson,Sec latya avec haricot rouge,Soupe aux lentilles	Fried rice,Fried chicken,Thaï soupe	Toast biscuit,Sucreries, Gâteau
10	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Petit poisson,Sec latya avec haricot rouge,	---	Toast biscuit,Riz gonflé,Pois chiches
11	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Purée de Sésame,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Toast biscuit,Sucreries, Gâteau
12	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Toast biscuit,Riz gonflé,Pois chiches
13	Pain,Poulet	Riz,Ruhi,Purée de pomme de terre,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Courge amère avec haricot rouge	Toast biscuit,Gaja,Patate douce
14	Pain,Œuf,Yaourt	Riz,Yardlong beans,Courge amère avec haricot rouge	---	Pomme,Toast biscuit,Banane,Riz gonflé
15	Khichudi,Œuf	Riz,Gourde serpent,Petit poisson,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Toast biscuit,Ananas,Banane,Riz gonflé

Tariff Development Creates Unease

Recent tariff development creates some unease, Chance of buying J-10C does not appear to cease.

Fresh debate on Bangladesh-USA bilateral trade agreement erupts after nitty-gritty of the deal was disclosed by the Bengali press. Former editor of the communist [party] run daily laid bare the details of the agreement on the Bengali daily Prothom Alo(see "Bangladesh Ke Mante Hobe 131 Shorto,Juktorashtro Ke 6(Bangladesh has to comply 131 clauses while the US have to comply 6)", Shawkot Hossein Masum,Daily Prothom Alo,May 4,2026.https://www.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/fumaag6mec). Others followed suit. Since then, there has been a growing cry to nullify the agreement, signed during the tenure of interim govt.

Incumbent Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman,back then defense advisor, backed the deal by saying that it is the best bilateral deal available when it is compared with other agreements.

Few matters I find interesting to highlight here. The deal allows American insurance company not to generate business any more for Bangladeshi state-run insurance company. Earlier American insurance company was obliged to generate such business for local companies.

The deal questions legitimacy of subsidy in fisheries sector. It also underscores Intellectual Property Right,securing Bangladeshi commitment to stringent measures in case of violation of such rights.

The deal says Bangladesh will abstain from introducing discriminatory policies and taxes targeting digital services originating in the USA. In addition, American tech companies will not disclose source code of their products to Bangladeshi authority in order to do business here. However, this condition can be relaxed for the sake of public procurement or matters related to court.

The deal also says Bangladesh will take stern actions against any foreign country dumping goods into American markets using Bangladeshi soil.

The deal spares existing nuclear commitments but put severe restrictions on future nuclear deal.

The deal obliges Bangladesh to share subsidy related information with the USA.

The deal also forces Bangladesh to implement and ensure trade unions in companies operating in the export processing zones(EPZ). Most of Bangladesh's FDI comes from South East Asian countries. And EPZs offer highest salary and benefits to the workers in Bangladesh. This matter of trade unions in EPZs make the foreign investors unease. Particularly the South Koreans as they have seen the anarchy such unions caused back home. So it may have leverage on future FDI decisions.

The bilateral deal already starts to show its effect. Bangladesh recently signed a deal with Boeing to procure 14 aircrafts in a bid to slash trade surplus it enjoys in American market(see "Bangladesh signs biggest ever plane deal for 14 Boeings", yahoo finance,May 01,2026,https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/bangladesh-signs-biggest-ever-plane-204858697.html ).

Earlier in this space I speculated Bangladesh might buy Boeing-made combat aircraft to cut the trade surplus. The completion of Boeing deal put an end to that prospect. But it brings to fore potential procurement of Chinese combat aircraft.

Though the THINK TWICE Act of 2025 penalises countries buying Chinese arms, Bangladesh may evade the Act as it concluded talks of J-10C purchase before the Act came into effect.

Given the purchasing ability of Bangladesh and geopolitical tensions it faces, Washington may allow exception for Bangladesh as it allowed buying of Russian oil from the vessels in the wake of Iran war.

There has been some unease among the business community,particularly the exporters, with the development of the bilateral agreement with USA. Former World Bank lead economist in Bangladesh Zahid Hussain echoed their concerns in an analytical opinion piece titled "Tariffs spread the pain, refunds kept the gain", published on the Business Standard on May 02,2026 (see "Tariffs spread the pain,refunds kept the gain" ,Zahid Hussain, The Business Standard,May 02,2026,https://www.tbsnews.net/analysis/tariffs-spread-pain-refunds-kept-gain-1427221).

He highlighted that the US authority is paying back billions of dollar worth of tariff to the importers as the US Supreme Court rendered the tariff stance of Trump administration useless. But that money is not shared with Bangladeshi exporters who absorbed part of the tariff and witnessed shrinking of their profit margin. Bangladeshi exporters are also worthy of getting back part of the tariff money,he underscores.

There has been mixed reactions about the bilateral trade agreement. It is too early to tell what kind of impact it will have. But it will influence future trade agreements and FDI for sure. Simmering tensions can be felt for disproportionate distribution of tariff refund. It is speculated that the purchase of Chinese arms by Bangladesh may not be targeted by the THINK TWICE Act.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(02 mai --- 08 mai)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
02	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Yard long beans,Courge amère,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet,Yard long beans	Laddu
03	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Feuilles de Moringa	Riz,Petit poisson,Feuilles de Moringa	Pomme,Malta
04	Pain, Pomme de terre	Pilaf riz,Yard long beans,Poulet	Pilaf riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet, Purée de pomme de terre	Sagu
05	Pain,Gourde serpent	Riz,Ruhi,Tige de taro avec crevette sec	---	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches
06	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Gourde serpent,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Riz,Banane,Singara,Lait
07	Paratha,Œuf	Morog polao	Riz gonflé,Soupe aux vigna mungo,Pomme de terre bhaji	Ananas,Toast biscuit
08	Riz,Œuf,Pomme de terre bhaji,Jaque	Riz,Petit poisson,Feuilles de moringa	---	Toast biscuit,Jaque

Satellites For Containing Disaster

Use of satellites and pulse doppler rudder Save lives and minimize damage later.

Flash flood has caused great damage to the farmers of haor(low lying water bodies) areas. Unusual precipitation and water flows from the upstream inundate paddy fields. A large part of the winter crop has yet to be harvested. News paper reports put the damage toll as low as 10000 hectares to as high as 54000 hectares in Sunamganj and Bagerhat. Affected districts include Sunamganj,Moulovibazar,Sylhet,Comilla and Bagerhat.But the official estimate of the damage is much lower (See "Floodwaters swallo haor harvest in Sunamganj, leaving farmers counting losses", by Debashish Debu, Daily Business Standard, April 30,2026,https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/floodwaters-swallow-haor-harvest-sunamganj-leaving-farmers-counting-losses-1425466).

This flash flood is not new to Bangladeshis in the April-June period. Bangladesh is pretty familiar with such flash floods.Recurrence of such calamities lays bare failure in preparation. The damage is not only to crops; hidden losses are also there.

Agricultural inputs like fertilizers, irrigation, labor were employed in the cultivation process. Fertilizers are heavily subsidized. Since winter crops depend on irrigation, subsidized electricity and diesel were also used in the Boro or winter paddy cultivation. Gone are the subsidized inputs with the winter crops.

Many farmers also borrowed heavily from relatives, money lenders and microfinance institutions. The lent money on the submerged crops now becomes bad. The money cannot be recuperated and it will affect credit distribution next year,curtailing the amount of credit for distribution and narrowing the scope of agriculture and nonagricultural activities in the rural area.

The flash flood also pushed many farmer below the poverty line. Govt now has to arrange resources for them to fight the poverty till the next harvest, sacrificing other priority areas. The incidence of urban bound migration is also likely to rise, worsening further the urban poverty.

There are means to contain the damages from flash flood. Pulse Doppler rudder and remote sensing electro optical satellite are some options. Employing Pulse Doppler rudder near mountainous region could give localize early warning,saving lives and crops. Bangladesh depends on foreign satellites for meteorological data. The data could take 24 hours or more time to reach, rendering the meteorological forecast useless. Having our own remote sensing satellites is the solution. Pakistan recently put into orbit three remote sensing satellites. The constellation is designed to “support disaster response, land management, agricultural monitoring, environmental security, and increasingly sophisticated national surveillance requirements"(see "Pakistan Launches PRSC EO3 Satellite From China,Strengthening Strategic ISR,Space Surveillance and National Security Power", Defence Security Asia,April 26,2026, https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/pakistan-prsc-eo3-satellite-launch-china-isr-space-surveillance-strategic-security/). As Bangladesh houses several flood plains and flash flood becomes regular phenomenon, having our own remote sensing electro-optical satellite has become a necessity. Pakistani SUPARCO designed and built the satellites at its Satellite Research and Development Center. In Bangladesh, Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization(SPARRSO ) could set up similar satellite manufacturing facility and spearhead building of remote sensing satellites. Timely data from such satellites will help building correct modeling, leading to accurate forecast and minimize the damage.

It is a pity we spend billions of Taka on roads and embankments meant to be washed away every year, but we never allocate a tiny fraction of those spendings for some homebuilt satellites. The 2024 and 2026 disasters call for immediate use of Pulse Doppler rudder and remote sensing satellites for early preparedness and damage minimization in the event of recurring natural calamities.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(25 avril --- 01 mai)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
25	Pain,Gourde serpent,Œuf	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Pama croaker,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson,Purée de pomme de terre,Purée de cumin,Purée de curcuma	Pomme,Puri
26	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Lait,Banane	Pomme,Pois chiches,Riz gonflé
27	Pain,Œuf,Yardlong beans	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Yardlong beans	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Yardlong beans	Pomme,Patate douce
28	Pain,Gourde serpent,Banane	Riz,Petit poissons,Gourde blanche	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Yardlong beans	Pomme,Sucreries
29	Pain,Œuf,Pomme de terre bhaji	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Petit poisson	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge	Pomme,Sucreries
30	Pain,Œuf	Khichudi,Épinard d'eau	Khichudi,Ruhi	Pomme,Patate douce
01	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Courge amère,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Ruhi,Poulet,Légumes, Petit poisson,Fish cutlet	Patate douce,Yaourt sucré,Sucreries

Containing The Power Outage

Fewer working days and work during day Lower peak demand and end political fray.

Power outage has become a chronic problem amid scorching summer heat. Situation is worst in the villages. Dhaka dwellers have not yet bear the brunt of 'load management'. In the rural areas, electricity supply does not match the demand, which is much higher in summer days. Rural Electrification Board (REB), the organization in charge of supplying electricity in rural areas, does not get as much electricity as it needed from public distribution bodies. According to a news report by Daily Prothom Alo, Mymensing got 48% ,Rongpur got 40% and Khulna got 39% less electricity than what they needed on Tuesday( see "Barchhey Loadshedding,Bhoganti Beshi Gram E(Outage On The Rise,Villages Suffer Most)" by Mohiuddin, Daily Prothom Alo ,p 1,April 23,2026).

Govt furnished data shows country's peak electricity demand is 16000 megawatts while electricity generation is 14126 megawatts(see "Dhaka to face 110MW load shedding on trial basis to ensure irrigation supply: State minister", The Business Standard,April 23,2026,https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/dhaka-face-110mw-load-shedding-trial-basis-ensure-irrigation-supply-state-minister). Summer days are not over. Meteorologists fear several heat waves during this summer season. That means electricity consumption will rise and so will the peak demand. Since generation faces hurdles, there will be more power outage. And rural areas face most of the crisis.

But the trouble free days of Dhaka dwellers are numbered. State minister Aninda Islam Amit at the Parliament said that Dhaka would face 110 megawatts load shedding on trial basis to ensure supply of electricity for irrigation in rural areas (see "Dhaka to face 110MW load shedding on trial basis to ensure irrigation supply: State minister", The Business Standard,April 23,2026). State minister sounded confident that the crisis would not prolong as govt has the fund to import fuel and one coal power plant will resume operation following maintenance. If there is truth in it, then this power crisis could have been avoided through innovative means. First take a look at the problems the outage created. The onset of the war in [the] Middle East and subsequent fuel crisis led to closure of many schools for more than a month. Now frequent power cuts in the villages hamper the learning of the students at home. Many SSC examinees cannot prepare themselves well for the ongoing exams. There is a measles outbreak in Bangladesh and frequent load shedding in the villages complicated the care and treatment of the infants at hospitals and at home. Apart from hampering irrigation, small businesses in the rural areas suffer tremendously, witnessing drop in the sales revenue.

Govt claims the suffering is temporary. This short spell of load shedding could be avoided. Day light saving time is not new to Bangladeshis. If office hours are between 8 am and 4 pm, then lot of electricity will be saved,discarding the need for power outage. If the number of working days [is] reduced to 4 days ,then it will also save a lot of electricity. It will also lower the number vehicles on the street during working days, saving lots of fuel. Sri Lanka is already pursuing this strategy. Last but not the least is to bring all the coal based and furnace oil based power plants into full power generation, improving the load shedding situation dramatically.

Total installed power generation capacity of the country is 27840 megawatts (source: Wikipedia.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Bangladesh). Lack of natural gas and furnace oil render most of the power generation plants out of operation. Since govt is confident to procure more LNG and oil for power generation, it is anticipated that the power outage will not take a virulent form. Even if the power outage is necessary, the urban centers should bear the most of it ,sparing the villages and not perturbing the rural economy. Rearranging working hours or fewer working days could be thought of alternative to power cuts as they lower the peak demand for electricity. Point is there is no need for power outage when innovative means are available.