La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(25 avril --- 01 mai)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
25	Pain,Gourde serpent,Œuf	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Pama croaker,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson,Purée de pomme de terre,Purée de cumin,Purée de curcuma	Pomme,Puri
26	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Lait,Banane	Pomme,Pois chiches,Riz gonflé
27	Pain,Œuf,Yardlong beans	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Yardlong beans	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Yardlong beans	Pomme,Patate douce
28	Pain,Gourde serpent,Banane	Riz,Petit poissons,Gourde blanche	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Yardlong beans	Pomme,Sucreries

Containing The Power Outage

Fewer working days and work during day Lower peak demand and end political fray.

Power outage has become a chronic problem amid scorching summer heat. Situation is worst in the villages. Dhaka dwellers have not yet bear the brunt of 'load management'. In the rural areas, electricity supply does not match the demand, which is much higher in summer days. Rural Electrification Board (REB), the organization in charge of supplying electricity in rural areas, does not get as much electricity as it needed from public distribution bodies. According to a news report by Daily Prothom Alo, Mymensing got 48% ,Rongpur got 40% and Khulna got 39% less electricity than what they needed on Tuesday( see "Barchhey Loadshedding,Bhoganti Beshi Gram E(Outage On The Rise,Villages Suffer Most)" by Mohiuddin, Daily Prothom Alo ,p 1,April 23,2026).

Govt furnished data shows country's peak electricity demand is 16000 megawatts while electricity generation is 14126 megawatts(see "Dhaka to face 110MW load shedding on trial basis to ensure irrigation supply: State minister", The Business Standard,April 23,2026,https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/dhaka-face-110mw-load-shedding-trial-basis-ensure-irrigation-supply-state-minister). Summer days are not over. Meteorologists fear several heat waves during this summer season. That means electricity consumption will rise and so will the peak demand. Since generation faces hurdles, there will be more power outage. And rural areas face most of the crisis.

But the trouble free days of Dhaka dwellers are numbered. State minister Aninda Islam Amit at the Parliament said that Dhaka would face 110 megawatts load shedding on trial basis to ensure supply of electricity for irrigation in rural areas (see "Dhaka to face 110MW load shedding on trial basis to ensure irrigation supply: State minister", The Business Standard,April 23,2026). State minister sounded confident that the crisis would not prolong as govt has the fund to import fuel and one coal power plant will resume operation following maintenance. If there is truth in it, then this power crisis could have been avoided through innovative means. First take a look at the problems the outage created. The onset of the war in [the] Middle East and subsequent fuel crisis led to closure of many schools for more than a month. Now frequent power cuts in the villages hamper the learning of the students at home. Many SSC examinees cannot prepare themselves well for the ongoing exams. There is a measles outbreak in Bangladesh and frequent load shedding in the villages complicated the care and treatment of the infants at hospitals and at home. Apart from hampering irrigation, small businesses in the rural areas suffer tremendously, witnessing drop in the sales revenue.

Govt claims the suffering is temporary. This short spell of load shedding could be avoided. Day light saving time is not new to Bangladeshis. If office hours are between 8 am and 4 pm, then lot of electricity will be saved,discarding the need for power outage. If the number of working days [is] reduced to 4 days ,then it will also save a lot of electricity. It will also lower the number vehicles on the street during working days, saving lots of fuel. Sri Lanka is already pursuing this strategy. Last but not the least is to bring all the coal based and furnace oil based power plants into full power generation, improving the load shedding situation dramatically.

Total installed power generation capacity of the country is 27840 megawatts (source: Wikipedia.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Bangladesh). Lack of natural gas and furnace oil render most of the power generation plants out of operation. Since govt is confident to procure more LNG and oil for power generation, it is anticipated that the power outage will not take a virulent form. Even if the power outage is necessary, the urban centers should bear the most of it ,sparing the villages and not perturbing the rural economy. Rearranging working hours or fewer working days could be thought of alternative to power cuts as they lower the peak demand for electricity. Point is there is no need for power outage when innovative means are available.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(18 avril --- 24 avril)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
18	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Yard long beans,Pomme de terre,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Yard long beans,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi	Ananas,Pois chiches,Riz gonflé
19	Pain,Yardlong beans,Œuf	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Ananas,Pastèque
20	Pain,Pois blanc	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson	Riz,Petit poisson,Soupe aux lentilles	Ananas,Puri
21	Pain	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge,Pianju,Gombo,Yardlong beans	Patate douce, Mermelos fruit
22	Pain,Œuf ,Banane	Riz,Pois blanc,Ruhi,Épinard d'eau	Riz,Lait,Banane	Ananas,Puri
23	Pain,Pois blanc	Riz,Pois blanc,Courge amère,Ruhi,Yardlong beans	Riz,Courge amère,Crevette,Yardlong beans	---
24	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Pois blanc,Tige de taro avec sec crevettes, Purée de cumin, Courge amère ,Yardlong beans	Riz,Pois blanc,Tige de taro avec sec crevettes, Purée de cumin	Pomme,Sucreries, Pois chiches,Riz gonflé,Fruit cake

Festivals Are The Key

Festive mood and bonus money Bring pace to dull economy.

Seasonal festivals turn out to be boon for the economy. Widespread participation in the festival accelerates sales. Festival transaction constitutes major part of the annual transaction. Festival sales boost demand in fixed season and generate much needed revenue to the shop owners. Two Eids and Bengali new year (Pohela Baishakh)celebration are among the major festivals that shape the annual sales. Back to back celebration of Eid and Pohela Boishakh to some extent subdued the economy all these years. As the gap between lunar calendar driven Eid and Bengali calendar driven Pohela Boishakh widens, impact of the two on the economy also deepens.

Govt bonus to public servants plays a key role in rejuvenating the festival economy. In addition, many private organizations follow govt step and provide special bonus during the Pohela Boishakh. In brief, this bonus and allowance make a huge impact to the growing of the festival economy. Though no formal study is initiated, news reports suggest a quarter of annual sales take place during the Pohela Boishakh. From food to handicrafts, from clothes to entertainment ,hardly any sector remains untouched by the festive mood.

Taking enthusiasm into account, other festivals could play major role in bringing pace to economy. Aiming at festivals stretching all around the year is the key. Autumn is coincided with the harvesting season. So celebrating Nobanno or Autumn festival,which is held in November, will give people another occasion to celebrate and spend money. Cash allowance to salary men will also augment sales in this time. Winter is considered an ideal time for celebration. Most of the educational institutions remain closed. Winter festival can be thought of as the desired festival of this time. Since the dry season is an ideal season to travel around the country, winter can be considered the chosen season to boost tourism at home. Tourism bonus to salary men can make more people travel different parts of the country, ending bad spell for the domestic tourism industry.

Festive mood proves to be great catalyst to increase sales. Capitalizing the festivals all year around could rejuvenate the dull economy. Apart from the two Eids, Pohela Boishakh in April, Nobanno in November and Winter festival in December can provide year round sales boom. For that to happen, cash bonus to public and private employees is a must. This kind of sales push during festivals will definitely move the economy forward to reach the desired destination.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(11 avril --- 17 avril)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
11	Pain,Pois blanc	Riz,Yard long beans,Sec ruban poisson avec haricot rouge	Riz,Yard long beans,Sec ruban poisson avec haricot rouge	Patate douce
12	Pain, Pois blanc	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Latya poisson	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Sec ruban poisson avec haricot rouge,Latya poisson	Pois chiches,Riz gonflé
13	Pain,Papaye-Pomme de Terre bhaji	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Gombo,Petit poisson	Riz,Petit poisson,Purée de pomme de terre	Patate douce
14	Riz rassis,Pianju,Purée de pomme de terre,Puntio barbe poisson	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson	Riz,Lait,Banane	Banane,Sucreries
15	Paratha,Œuf	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Latya poisson,Feuilles de jute	Riz,Latya poisson,Soupe aux lentilles,Feuilles de jute	Patate douce
16	Pain,Banane	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge	Riz,Sec ruban avec haricot rouge/td>	---
17	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre, Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson,Sec ruban poisson	Riz,Petit poisson,Soupe aux lentilles	---

Revenue Reform Remains Unimplemented

Throwing the revenue reform into the gutter Is not silly but a serious matter.

It appears that the ruling party has kept its words by not implementing the revenue reform. At the heart of this reform is the separation between revenue policy department and revenue implementation department. Past interim govt even made Revenue Policy and Revenue Administration Ordinance 2025 (see http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/act-details-1537.html),which is in line with the IMF reform list. Incumbent Finance Minister before the election said his party would support independence of the central bank but oppose splitting the NBR into two bodies.

What does this new ordinance contain? Govt will appoint people to revenue policy department. Tax Appellate Tribunal and Customs, Excise and VAT Appellate Tribunal will be under the auspices of revenue policy department. Its jobs include formulation of tax policy, raising/lowering taxes, tax law amendment, evaluation of tax management, negotiations on international customs agreement, research, revenue forecast and estimation among other things.

Staffs of revenue administration department will be drawn from BCS cadres. Revenue administration is tasked with implementation of various tax laws and regulations, implementation of international customs agreement, implementation of international agreement on abolition of double taxation, staff management, making and implementing budget for the department, initiating tax awareness building campaign,undertaking audit and surveillance programs etc.

The splitting of the NBR will make the policy department's influence weaker over the administration department. At present NBR could impose excise duties or [raise] taxes in the middle of the year in a bid to meet the revenue target. The move ultimately increases cost of doing business. Many investment initiatives sustain cost overrun because of unpredictable nature of tax policies. It is anticipated that NBR reform would bring predictability in tax policies [by] not raising cost of businesses in a given year.

And most importantly the reform may put an end to policies driven by political vendetta. The NBR Order of 1972 makes NBR a powerful institution. If one reads the clause #4 of The NBR Order, then one can have some idea about the power wielded by the NBR. The clause states that govt can make rules at its whims and NBR officers can take actions whatever they wish before the rule is actually made. Those actions before the rule cannot be put under scanner later (see The NBR Order 1972, https://nbr.gov.bd/uploads/acts/9.pdf). In the past we saw how the NBR was used to harass the political opponent. Fear is that outrightly throwing the idea of splitting the NBR may continue political vendetta driven actions.

Revenue reform will not only put restraint over overwhelming power of NBR,it will also bring the much needed predictability about revenue policymaking. And it will benefit both business and individual alike in terms of giving idea about the vernacular cost. At the same time, it will improve the political environment by ending use of NBR as a docile instrument to harass others. But by not making the ordinance into a law , govt throws cold water into such bright possibilities. I hope govt will reconsider its decision.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(04 avril --- 10 avril)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
04	Pain,Pois blanc,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi, Aubergine,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois blanc	Riz,Ruhi,Aubergine,Poulet	Beguni,Pois chiches,Yaourt sucré, Sucreries, Malta,Butter toast
05	Pain, Yaourt sucré, Sucreries	Pilaf,Poulet	Riz,Poulet,Ruhi,Aubergine	Mangue,Sucreries
06	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Poulet,Yardlong beans	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Yardlong beans,Pianju	Sucreries
07	Pain,Œuf,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz,Yardlong beans,Soupe aux lentilles,Crevettes	Riz,Yardlong beans,Soupe aux lentilles,Crevettes	Sucreries
08	Pain,Œuf,Pois blanc	Riz,Ruhi,Crevettes,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	---
09	Pain,Œuf,Pois blanc	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson,Purée de pomme de terre,Épinard d'eau	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson	Banane
10	Pain,Banane ,Lait	Riz,Ruhi,Petit poisson,Yardlong beans,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Lait,Banane,Œuf	Banane,Riz gonflé,Pois chiches,Pianju

Rising Public Debt Clips The Wings

The woe called rising public debt Makes difficult choices amid revenue regret.

Govt is planning to seek $2 billion foreign credit to mitigate challenges of energy security caused by ongoing war. Meanwhile, govt's debt service management has already crossed $3 billion matching the incoming flow of aid this fiscal year. Asian Development Bank hinted that it [would] provide credit to meet the emerging need from oil price shock. Ailing economy needs further cash to recover. And it is coming from foreign credit. Bangladesh's overall foreign credit stands at $113.51 billion at the end of December 2025. Govt borrowing accounts for 82% of the total foreign credit. Private sector accounts for the rest.(Source: Bangladesh Bank)

According to a study by IMF,global public debt reached 93.9% of GDP and projected to cross 100% by 2028(see "High Debt,Hard Choices" by Era Dabla-Norris and Rodrigo Valdes,March 2026,IMF,https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2026/03/high-debt-hard-choices-era-dabla-norris). As the public debt rises,so does the interest payment. This fiscal year alone govt paid $950 million as interest payment. By the end of this fiscal year it would cross the billion [dollar] mark. The situation makes the task of resource mobilization even harder. The IMF study also shows that interest payments take away 21% of tax revenues in low income countries. This money could have been spent on social security programs and development programs.

Tax revenues that help financing the development and social security programs are not in a good shape. Against a target of Tk 3.25 trillion ,NBR managed to collect Tk 2.54 trillion of revenue till February this year, registering a shortfall of Tk 714 billion(Source: NBR). This year revenue target is set at Tk 5.54 trillion. Failure to meet revenue target means the money has to come from somewhere else. Borrowing is a popular option. As Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from LDC countries within two years, overseas borrowing will be costly for us. Battered economy, poor credit ratings have already made costly the foreign credit. Too much borrowing from domestic sources translates into less credit to private sector. What is worrying too much borrowing amid high debt and inadequate revenue has consequences. The IMF study cautions:

"But today, the era of easy choices is over. Every dollar a government borrows without matching revenue implies higher taxes or lower spending in the future, at least to cover the additional interest the new debt generates. Beyond a certain point, more borrowing forces painful decisions—through austerity, inflation, financial repression, or even default."

Amid the grim fiscal situation, govt undertakes ambitious social security programs where chances of leakages are very high. Previous social security programs were not leakages free. Given no dramatic improvement in governance in the last one year, why will these new ones be different? Meanwhile, borrowed money will finance the deficit budget and tax revenues will go for paying the rising debt instead of development or social security programs. Earlier we used to take debt to finance various programs [aimed] for people and capacity building. Gradually we are entering into a phase where we need debt to pay older debts and interests. Social welfare, capacity building, human development and investment in infrastructure are [going to be] some of the badly hit areas. We need to check our spending and require serious commitment to reforms.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(28 mars --- 03 avril)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
28	Pain,Poulet,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi,Moringa avec citrouilles,Gourde serpent,Courage amère,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles,Courge amère,Gourde serpent	Vermicelles,Poa pitha
29	Pain, poulet	Riz,Beans,Petit poisson	Riz,Beans,Pianju(depuis marché),Œuf	Poa pitha
30	Pain,Gourde serpent	Riz,Feuilles de Moringa, Citrouilles,Pied de poulet	Riz,Poulet,Feuilles de moringa	Pois chiches,Riz gonflé
31	Khichuri,Œuf	Riz,Épinard malabar,Petit poisson	Riz,Épinard malabar,Petit poisson,Pois chiches	Vermicelles
01	Pain,Poulet,Œuf	Riz,Gangetic ailia poisson,Gourde serpent,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Potato bhaji,Petit poisson	Vermicelles,Puri,Patate douce
02	Pain,Potato bhaji	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Poulet	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Potato bhaji,Petit poisson	Jhalmuri,Pianju,Poire,Patate douce
03	Pain,Poulet	Riz,Papaye,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Papaye,Pomme de terre,Beguni,Pois blanc	Pois chiches,Riz gonflé,Poire,Pastèque,Ananas,Malta

Formalizing Festival Economy

Formalizing our festival economy Boost sales and lower revenue agony.

Eids have always been great drivers of augmenting domestic sales. This Eid is no different. Despite slow improvement in law & order, Eid economy is doing well according to some news reports. There has been no formal study of the size of Eid economy. Platform of shop owners claims it would be around Tk 3 trillion. It maybe an exaggerated figure. Unfortunately we do not have any market research institution that could corroborate the claim. Such institution could initiate a study and come up with the [approximate] size of Eid economy.

This kind of study helps policy intervention. So that govt incentives fall into the right hands. Policy makers will also have an idea about flow of money and links between key sectors. Now only news reports are key sources of this information. Govt can help float this kind of market research institution through public private partnership.

Undocumented transaction in many shops is an obstacle estimating true figure of festival economy. Currently there are 2.6 million shops across the country according to the platform of shop owners. But many do not have business identification number (BIN), which is required for paying VAT(see "Subdued Festival Economy" published here on March 23,2025.https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2025/03/subdued-festival-economy.html?m=1). So govt does not get enough revenue from transactions take place during the festivals. Till March, revenue shortfall reached Tk 714 billion. If the shops were BIN registered , govt would get enough revenue just from the shop owners.

Moreover, revenue shortfall indicates govt may further borrow from the banks ,lowering the share of private credit. Squeezed private credit stalls expansion/growth of businesses ahead of major festivals. If funds like Equity And Entrepreneurship Fund (EEF),which remains unused throughout the year, of the central bank becomes available for shop owners during key festivals, then it will have major impact on the growth of these shops.

Another thing I notice is that govt provides bonuses to public servants during festivals of Eid and Bengali new year. This policy also influences private sector to give bonuses during the two major events. Altogether the policy boosts sales in the festival seasons. Similar kind of incentives given six months later may also increase sales later period of the year,which usually see dull period in sales revenue. Celebrating Autumn, Winter may be the occasions to choose for.

Informal nature of our festivals fails the govt to tap the potentials from them. They are great drivers of generating sales demand and growth of SME businesses. Bringing them into a formal structure will help govt to keep a close tab on the flow of money and augment the tax revenue.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(21 mars --- 27 mars)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
21	Paratha,Poulet	Pilaf,Poulet,Gourde bouteille	Pilaf,Poulet	Vermicelles,Egg jorda,Jorda,Payesh,Tchana Tchat,Custard
22	Khichuri,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Ruhi,Egg jorda,Gourde bouteille,Courge amère,Chicken kofteh,Yaourt sucré,Jorda,Gulabjamun	Riz,Poulet,Courge amère	---
23	Paratha,Légumes	Riz,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	---	Jhalmuri(Riz gonflé avec tchana et tchanatchur),Vermicelles
24	Paratha,Poulet	Riz,Petit poisson,Aubergine,Gourde serpent	Riz,Petit poisson,Gourde serpent,Œuf,Pianju	Jhalmuri,Tchira
25	Paratha,Gourde serpent,Œuf	Riz,Petit poisson,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard malabar	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson,Épinard malabar	Jhalmuri(Riz gonflé avec tchana et tchanatchur),Banane,Patate douce
26	Pain,Gourde serpent	Riz,Feuilles de gourde bouteille, Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	Pilaf,Aubergine avec sec poisson,Poulet	Puri,Paratha roll,Pastèque,Vermicelles
27	Pain,Poulet,Œuf	Riz,Moringa avec citrouilles,Soupe aux lentilles,Aubergine avec sec poisson,Poulet	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet	Jhalmuri(Riz gonflé avec tchana et tchanatchur),Vermicelles

Will Taka Remain Stable?

War leads to further rise in inflation, Policy rate cut may cause depreciation.

Last week exchange rate of Taka reached 123.30 against US dollar. Now the rate settled at Tk 122.75 per USD. The ongoing war in the Middle East cast a shadow over remittance inflow and supply of energy through the [Strait] of Hormuz. Moreover, govt changed Bangladesh Bank governor abruptly and the new governor hinted to lower the policy rate while inflation rate increased further and hovering around 9.13% in February. In January ,it was 8.58%. In this backdrop, serious question raised over continuity of regulatory discipline.

Throughout the fasting month of Ramzan ,key kitchen items registered higher prices. A new war in the Middle East risks worsening the inflation by causing supply problems [for] energy and spiking the fuel price. Despite govt assurance of no fuel crisis at home, the long queue of motorbikes and cars in front of petrol pumps is a testament to panic prevailing at the ground. Central banks of major economies already shelve their plans to lower policy rate while ours one walks on a different direction. Furthermore, abrupt dismissal of governor sent a wrong signal abroad about commitment to reforms. It may delay improvement of our credit ratings, causing troubles to get foreign credit for private sector.

Taking a look at major macroeconomic indicators tells that time is indeed not right for a policy rate slash. During July-January period of 2025-26, export declined to $26.09 billion from $26.36 billion in 2024-25. Trade deficit increased to $13.79 billion in 2025-26(July-January) from $11.74 billion in 2024-25(July-January). Current account deficit declined to $381 million in 2025-26(July-January) million from $1.31 billion in in 2024-25(July-January),riding on growth of remittance. Remittance rose to $19.43 billion in 2025-26(July-January) from $15.96 billion in 2025-26(July-January)(See https://www.bb.org.bd/en/index.php/econdata/bop). Despite improvement in current account deficit, situation is not right for discarding the tight momentary policy. [Particularly] when the war may derail the growth of remittance. At one hand trade deficit is growing ,on the other rising import and uncertainty over remittance put overall macroeconomic situation at a precarious position. In this situation, lowering the policy rate will increase the depreciation pressure on Taka against other currencies. Any wild fall of Taka worsens inflationary situation through pass-through effect of the new exchange rate.

Moreover, further worsening of war will spike fuel prices and deteriorate inflation in advanced economies, where most of our exportable items go. This will cut the purchasing power of their nationals and lower overall consumption. Declining trend of export will further cause depreciation pressure on Taka. When exchange rate and inflation rate will both rise ,real effective exchange rate will fall further given denominator part of the formula remains same(look at the formula).

REER at period t= (Exchange rate index of a country x Inflation rate of the country)x 100÷(Average of trading partners' exchange rate index x weight x Average of inflation rates in partner countries)

Exchange Rate Index at t= (Exchange rate of a county's currency at t)÷(Exchange rate of a county's currency at base period)

So far US dollar appreciated against other currencies following the start of the war. Since we do trade with other partners in USD ,a stronger USD translates into depreciation of real exchange rate of Taka given other things remain same. However, inflation is likely to rise amid escalating war . When average of inflation rates in partner countries is higher than exchange rate of Taka and inflation at home,then Taka will appreciate in real term (see the formula).

Stability of Taka depends on many things. But so far the development indicates Taka is likely to depreciate further if the war turns out to be a protracted one. We coped with 40% depreciation of Taka all these years. Similar or more depreciation will be unbearable for us. So cautious monetary policy ,which implies a tighter one, will be good for us. Does the central bank have courage and commitment to do so?

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(14 mars --- 20 mars)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner/Début de jeûne	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures/Fin de jeûne
14	Riz,Courge amère, Ruhi,Banane,Lait	----	Patate douce	Pois chiches, Tchira(Riz battu avec lait),Pomme,Carotte,Tehari,Poulet,Vermicelles
15	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet	---	---	Pois chiches,Riz gonflé,Tchira,Pianju,Tchop,Halim,Naan rôti,Jilapi,Datte,Pomme,Carotte
16	Riz, Ruhi avec moringa	----	---	Pois chiches, Tchira(Riz battu avec lait),Pomme,Datte,Carotte,Tchop,Jilapi,Pianju
17	Riz,Poulet	---	---	Pois chiches,Riz gonflé,Datte,Pomme,Carotte,Vermicelles
18	Riz,Lait,Banane	---	---	Pois chiches,Beguni,Vermicelles,Pomme,Carotte,Khichuri,Œuf,Moringa avec tige de taro
19	Riz,Moringa avec sec ruban et tige de taro	---	Pilaf,Poulet,Œuf	Pois chiches,Beguni,Pianju,Meat ball,Riz gonflé, Jilapi
20	Riz,Lait,Banane	---	Riz,Shoal,Goutde bouteille,Œuf	Pois chiches,Beguni,Vermicelles,Pomme,Carotte