La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(18 juin --- 25 juin)

Some Concerns Over A Merger (Updated)

[Reproduced below is a piece titled "Some Concern Over A Merger"that I penned and published on April 14 on this site. The merger of Axiata and Telenor in Malaysia, formally made public on June 21,2021, has implications for Bangladesh as the two have large subscriber base, controlling two-third of the market share.]

Merger of two rivals on foreign shore
Leaves a market with competition no more.
Allow entry of new operator
In exchange of market access for export sector.

In recent years, competition in Bangladesh economy is gradually waning. Cellular phone service offers the apt example. Earlier we had 5 operators. Merger between Robi and GrameenPhone reduced the number into 4. Recently a news broke out that Telenor and Axiata merged their operations in Malaysia. Telenor operates GrameenPhone and Axiata operates Robi in Bangladesh. Back in 2019, the two companies hinted that they would go for a merger and form a bigger GSM service company in Asia. But the communiqué made it clear Axiata and Telenor's Bangladesh operations would not be touched by the merger decision and they would operate as two separate companies. Despite their claim, their decisions may have significant influence over the cellular phone service industry of Bangladesh.

According to Bangladesh Telecom Regulatory Commission (BTRC), there were 68.7 million subscribers in 2010, in 2019 the number rose to 157.5 million. Till January 2019, Grameenphone had 73.06 million subscribers, Banglalink had 33.69 million , Robi had 46.90 million and Teletalk had 3.88 million subscribers (Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2019). Clearly other operators paled to insignificance besides Grameenphone's subscriber base. Following the merger with Airtel, Robi acquired greater market share too.

Despite the repeated assurance from the operators if the news becomes true, true number of operators will come down to 3. Teletalk is operated by government by the way. This clearly has consequence for government as well as for consumers.

We have seen that relations between government and operators turned sour in recent years over contested tariff, slapping of supplementary duty, termination of employee and quality of services.

As operators become disenchanted with the government, consumers bear full brunt of it. They pay higher prices for existing products and experience poor service.

Back in 2018, I wrote a piece on how a decision by government about raising the duration of smaller data pack led to increase in data pack price and undermined consumers' interest.

When Robi and Airtel merger took place, Axiata paid Tk 1 billion as fees to regulatory authority. In addition, winding up of redundant customer centers and voluntary retirement scheme (VRS) were introduced to retrench cost.

[In the beginning of June, more than 100 employees of Grameenphone have been included in the list of VRS(Source: Daily Prothom Alo,June 20, 2021).]

It puzzled me that how two parent companies merged their businesses in somewhere else but isolate the other one in Bangladesh. No matter how convincing it sounds we have to take it with a dollop of salt. If Grameenphone and Robi exist as two different independent operators , they will offer competing products to consumers. Such competition will allow consumers to attain desirable product at affordable price. Parent company of Robi and Grameenphone has leverage to influence Bangladeshi market. The two operators may cease to offer competing products and thereby shape their anticipated profit.

Furthermore, such decision has other implications at various stages of business. One of the operators may incur loss and file for bankruptcy and shirk responsibility while parent company in Kualalumpur may sit on profits without diverting any part of it to troubled operator.

[A leading operator, also involved in the merger, discontinues a site that showcases games developed by Bangladeshi gamers. Promotional packages that offer attractive products are few. Operators put an end to free internet service, following a government instruction, that played a key role in educating kids from rural areas and to narrow the gap created by digital divide. Not only that the leading operators are less keen to get involved in CSR programs that were more prevalent few years ago.]

As mentioned earlier, Robi-Airtel amalgamation yielded Tk 1 billion to government coffer. Moreover, such merger required ample clearance from various branches of government. But parent company 's decision may be based on averting any regulatory intervention as such merger will give the two operators a subscriber base of 119.96 million and overwhelming dominance over the market, pushing the consumers at the mercy of operators. Moreover, declaration of a merger is likely to violate the Competition Act 2012, which was introduced to "prevent, control and eradicate collusion, monopoly, oligopoly, combination or abuse of dominant position or activities adverse to the competition "(Source: Bangladesh Competition Commission,Wikipedia).

So the statement of separate business operations might be a masquerade to eschew the issues involved in any public disclosure of merger.

No matter what the motif is Bangladesh should go for calling new operators to enter its GSM service market.

Prior to introduction of GSM service, tobacco related companies remained as biggest tax-revenue providers. Gradually mobile operators took their place. Merger news casts shadow over government's tax-revenue earnings from mobile operators. Now the biggest two operators are now in far more comfortable position to produce balance sheets that will be favorable to them, resulting in fewer corporate revenues from them.

[Once again government agencies that are supposed to keep tab on such developments in corporate world, particularly when it is concerned with golden goose of revenue earnings, miserably failed to notify the government (or intentionally swallowed it for personal gains). Government should strengthen and equip NBR, Ministry of Finance or Ministry of Foreign Affairs so that they could inform the government prior to such developments in corporate world. It is a must because they are directly accountable to government and constitutional bodies. So their actions, success and failure will reflect government policies and will be subject to scrutiny.]

So Bangladesh has no option but to allow new entrants into this market.We have to take some strategic considerations while offering new license. We have to make sure that such lucrative license could open new doors for our goods to the uncharted territories. For instance, we may welcome operators from Africa, South America, Turkey, Russia and Japan in exchange of greater market access of Bangladeshi goods like RMG , pharmaceuticals etc. Earlier we had not done it. Now, we should not repeat the same mistake.

No matter what statement the operators trot out, we, the consumers, look askance at them. At the end of the day, consumers pay a heavy toll from their own pockets when some wayward operators are in the thick of undermining the competitive business environment. We are witnessing it with growing concerns in many other areas!

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(11 juin---18 juin)

Selon un reportage, un policier a tué 3 personnes dont sa femme et fils à Kushtia. Police l'a appréhendé pour interpellation.

Selon un reportage, le bureau de l'alimentation et agriculture a classé Bangladesh 3ème dans l'indice des pays qui produisent le riz. La Chine est placé dans la tête, suivie par l'Inde.

Selon un reportage, gendarmerie maritime de la Tunisie a secouru 443 Bangladais depuis la Méditerranée entre le 18 mai et le 10 juin. Ils ont tenté de parvenir Italie en traversant clandestinement la Méditerranée.

Selon un reportage, la situation de Corona se détériore au Bangladesh. Cas de détection est parvenu 3.000 par jour. Pendant les 5 derniers jours, chaque jour 50 morts de covid-19 ont été enregistrées.

A Colleague Deserves Better

Free press, VAT, girl's education,
A lady did her best to serve the nation.
Trumped up charges put her in jail.
Going abroad is a right she deserves to avail.

1. When we were kids, we used to watch just one channel---Bangladesh Television. Cable TV had not arrived yet. With all my wonders, I watched how one single channel broadcast programs of three TV broadcast companies. In the morning, CNN aired its programs for couple of hours. From noon till afternoon, BBC broadcast its news services¹. From afternoon till midnight, BTV aired its programs. Bangladeshis in general had a clear idea about what was going on around the world. Images of First Gulf war, Balkan war, Larry King live, release of Pulp Fiction, handing over of Hong Kong, news of tragic death of princess Diana reached this part of the world in the blink of an eye with accompanying discussion that third world citizens were not accustomed to see and hear. Earlier, they had watched just one channel and received a government-set narrative. However, there were few dailies and weeklies that relentlessly published reports and stories completely different from the government narrative. The credit for giving this access to news and views of the world surely goes to then Ministry of Information and Communication. That initiative tremendously empowered Bangladeshis in terms of getting information and molding their own opinions about different issues at home and abroad, a quintessential aspect of modern democracy.

2. Later government also introduced Bangladesh Open University (BOU), inspired by similar initiative in the UK, that introduced distant learning , secondary and higher secondary school certificate, SSC and HSC, programs for working people and housewives who were dropped out or did not manage to get the regular degree.² When we sat for SSC exam I saw many mothers along with their daughters sat for SSC exam. Jubilation and joy after the news broke out that they had passed the SSC gave an aura as if the heaven descended on earth.The society would now recognize them as "shikkhito"(educated). It is more like passing Baccalauréat (equivalent to HSC) in France. Millions of people directly benefited from that program. Moreover, BOU offered many other programs through distant learning and modular lessons to get certain degrees and skills that many working people had not dreamt before.

3. By the time, we reached college and university, we saw a good number of female students there. Government offered free education to girls at college level. And it helped many rural households to get education for their daughters without incurring any cost. Enrolment of women at tertiary educational institutions not only increased but a great number of women entered job market. By the way , the present government discontinues the stipend program for women.

4. In 1991, government introduced Value Added Tax (VAT) , a 15% general sales tax on all goods and services³. Prior to that, government depended a lot on foreign loan, which contains unfavorable conditionalities. VAT tremendously lessened government's dependence on foreign loans as it increased government revenue manifolds. In 2005-06, total tax revenue earning was 9.3% of GDP, of which NBR revenue( including VAT) accounts 7.1% of GDP. In 2018-19, total tax revenue earning was 13.4% of GDP, of which NBR revenue( including VAT) accounts 11.7% of GDP. ⁴VAT gave the government that ease and flexibility to finance government projects.

5. The lady behind all these good policies is in jail now. A trumped up charge against her lodged in the time of caretaker government, complemented by other harassing charges,landed her in jail for the last 2 years. Just before the Corona virus outbreak, she got bail and has been staying at her home since then. Recently she received medical treatments from a private hospital⁵. I do not subscribe to the politics her party does, nor do I agree with many of their policies and position on various issues. The policies I mentioned earlier did a lot of good in the lives of ordinary Bangladeshis.

We have to keep it in mind that Khaleda Zia is wife of a freedom fighter. During the tenure of this government, dear ones of those opposed the idea of Bangladesh grabbed opportunities including lucrative position in party and parliament. Even wife of a convicted war criminal managed to go to Germany on health grounds. Chief and leaders of a party convicted in war crimes make frequent visits abroad, particularly in UK and USA.

Just few months ago perpetrators of the mayhem unleashed in Brahmanbaria and Chattogram went to Bangkok in a brainstorming session, as per some news reports.

Not just that. Many criminals managed to go abroad. Even during the time of Corona many minor transgressors were pardoned and released from jail.

Compared to them, Khaleda Zia is a former Prime Minister who did her best in spite of having so many shortcomings to lift the country out of backwardness and to bring positive changes in the lives of many people.

If there were a social credit score in Bangladesh, I bet, Khaleda Zia as an individual would fare well in that score.Her government's tremendous achievement in free press, liberalizing the economy and girl's education would make her score outstanding.

Even if her case were presented before the court of Gods, they would be compassionate and kind to her judging her past deeds.

It is a shame that a lady who is more than 70-year old and a popular politician is rotting in jail. In our country, politicians do not see any respectable and civilized end of their career. They face all kinds of tragic and savage ends. In that light it is highly untrue that politicians are untouchable and above the law.

At the end of the day, Khaleda Zia is a colleague in the same vocation our PM practices.In another vocation, differences in opinion does not lead one colleague to confine another one. Khaleda Zia has every right to go abroad like a free bird and to plan how she will spend the last leg of her political career. As a colleague and wife of a freedom fighter, she deserves better.

----------------------------------------------- Notes And References:

1. In the mid-1990s BTV started to broadcast the news programs of BBC and CNN. Link here

2.Bangladesh Open University was set up in 1992 and designed to be a center for distance learning.Link here

3. Bangladesh Economic Review 2019.

4. More on VAT. Link here<

5. "Still in CCU, Khaleda Zia's health improving slowly",a Dhaka Tribune report, May 20,2021. Link here

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(4 juin --- 11 juin)

Selon un reportage, Economist Intelligence Unit a classé Dacca 4ème parmi les villes inhabitables. Damas a classé la ville plus inhabitable dans le monde, suivi par Lagos.

Selon un reportage, coup de tonnerre a tué 9 personnes à travers du pays le vendredi et le samedi.

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé une grande bidonville à Dacca.

Selon un reportage, cadavre d' une étudiante s'est trouvé dans un appartement, situé au quartier de fonctionnaire à Dacca.

No VAT On Education

A debate resurfaces on horizon,
Causing widespread anger, I reckon.
VAT on higher education
Could dwarf the progress of nation.

A debate resurfaces over media about government's contemplation of imposing 15% VAT on private universities.¹ The decision was greeted with strong opposition as it might raise the cost of availing education. Government had earlier made similar move. But stay order from High Court put the matter on hold. To many, taxing education turned out to be unethical. Revenue government anticipates to receive from VAT is very negligible. So revoking of the decision gathers lot of support.

Tribal politics at public universities crippled the learning environment there. Every year, between the end of college exam and the beginning of university admission test, people see gruesome stories of rival / factional clashes at public universities. One or two snaps prompt parents to change their minds about getting their children admitted into a public university, which offers subsidized education. The idea of private university was conceived to retain a section of students at home who were poised to study abroad. Interest groups of all hues stepped forward to set up private universities. Mushrooming did a tremendous damage to the objectives conceived earlier. However,few stood alone by churning out quality graduates who outshined and outdid others in their respective workplaces. So banal statement like private universities do not live up to their utility may not suit them.

But these universities are very expensive for a typical Bangladeshi household.Many trustee board members made them another mean to make money.Moreover, many politically backed quarter also jumped into this business. In this pell-mell, objectives and images of private universities began swerving.

Among the 97 universities in 2017, only 6 had more than 10,000 students.² Only hand few are capable of delivering the quality education. Households here save their money like ants. Spending on education is like an investment to them. They just want to make sure their sons and daughters get the best at the expense of their hard-earned money. Many universities have strong ties with some thriving sectors.Many graduates land in dream jobs after graduation.

Exorbitant and unregulated fees make heavy dents in parents' pockets. University authorities, unlike public ones, do not allow any peaceful protest and stifle any attempt to challenge policy decision regarding operation of universities. So, when the first attempt to impose 15% VAT on private university was made in 2016, there was spontaneous outbursts from the students who knew surely authorities would pass it on them.

Before that movement, many lower middle-class and well-to-do families from villages and mofussils had begun sending their children to private universities, scattered mostly across outskirts of Dhaka and adjacent districts.

And these students started to live in shared accommodation of Dhaka's narrow and cramped apartments. Cost of living in Dhaka and exorbitant fees left little room and pushed them to street movement. "No VAT On Education" was literally on every car and wall and their continuous sit-ins proved wrong others who thought they were not capable of launching such movement of their one.³ It was a successful one and managed to get a stay order from the High Court. The movement was appreciated by all the quarters. Even the government felt a bit unsettled. The idea of introducing student politics at the private universities was floated. But it was not gained much support across the political corridor and later scuttled.

It is not clear what the government will do with this meagre 15% VAT on private universities. It has no plan to divert the money for the benefits of private university students. For instance, government does not offer any facilities to them. If government offers education voucher, financed by this VAT money, they could easily meet part of their expenditures and payback the money when they enter job market. Or the money can be invested to build dormitories across Dhaka and adjacent areas for private university students. But government remained mum about its objectives.

The decision coincided with ordeals unleashed by COVID-19 to middle-class lives. Many are coping with it and finding it very hard to keep the rhythm of expenses they had prior to the onset of this pandemic. At this difficult time, they need fresh pledges of support---monetary or in other form. Another cost increasing item is least expected. Furthermore, many universities put up additional charges for offering online courses. The students need some policy support that eases their cost burden.

During the pandemic, a huge number of students have been auto-promoted. This sheer number will definitely put pressure on higher education institutions. Many will enroll with private universities. Corona has already squeezed savings of the middle-class. Rethinking of 15% VAT will add further woes.

Let's recourse to John Stuart Mill. He wrote:" The worth of a state ,in the long run, is the worth of individuals composing it; and the state which postpones the interest of their mental expansion and elevation to a little more administrative skill,or of that semblance of it which practice gives in details of business; a state which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes --- will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished; and that the perfection of machinery to which it sacrificed everything will in the end avail it nothing, for want of the vital power which, in order that machine might work more smoothly, it has preferred to banish."⁴

If government really intends to earn revenue from private universities, then it should impose additional taxes on businesses operated by some trustee board members. Specially the ones who take regular benefits from universities. In the wake of corporate tax ease, these members can afford paying extra money while the COVID crisis beaten parents cannot.

----------------------------------------------- Notes And References:

1. "Uccha Shikkhar Upor Kor Adalater Nirdesher Poriponthi( VAT On Higher Education Is A Violation Of Court Order)", a report by Bangla Tribune, June 08, 2021. Link here

2.BBS Pocket Book 2018.

3. Don't Tax The Future, a piece I wrote back in June 06, 2021, in the wake of 15% VAT on English medium school.Link here

3. On Liberty, John Stuart Mill.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(05 juin---12 juin)

Selon un reportage, peu à peu les dégâts de Cyclone Yash deviennent visibles. A Kuakata et à Cox's Bazar, Yash a détruit 200 hôtels et PMEs au bord de la mer. 30.000 personnes sont détrempées à Koyra, Khulna. Ils ont besoin d' eau potable. Ils ont demandé mensuel, boulot au gouvernement.

Selon un reportage, des Rohingyas se sont insurgés et ont vandalisé un entrepôt à Bhachan Tchar , une petite île au milieu de Baie de Bengale, pendant une visite par une équipe de l'ONU.

Selon un reportage,une femme médecin s'est trouvée morte dans son appartement à Dacca. Ses proches se sont dit que c'était une tuerie. Aucune plainte a été déposée dans la gendarmerie à ce propos.

Selon un reportage, 40 parmi 50 analyses de sang ont été identifiées comme variant delta au Bangladesh. A l'hôpital publique de Rajshahi, 93 personnes ont été mortes à cause de Covid-19.

Aftermath Of Yash

Damaged dam, waterlogged people, drowned cattle,
Tidal wave of a calm storm tests the South-West's mettle.
Fresh credit is needed to resume activity.
Database is a must to trace loss of livestock in any calamity.

A cyclone, named Yash,swept across the South-West part of Bangladesh. It was the tidal surge that caused much of the damage. Full scale of the damage has not yet been ascertained. Bits and pieces of news of the damage are being reported on the press daily. Both men and livestock alike sustained losses. Snapshots provided by nuggets of news reports helped the readers grasp the ordeals the affected people went through.

Loss of lives so far confined to 11 deaths. But loss of livestock was huge. In Bhola alone Yash served a devastating blow to the cattle-rearer. A news report, quoting stat furnished by Department of Livestock, reported that 7,414 livestock had been killed by Yash, affecting another 65,000. Initial loss was reported to be Tk 14.054 million. ¹.

Accompanying tidal surge wreaked the havoc. 91-km-long embankment sustained damage in the hardly hit districts. In Borishal, 120 villages went under water, affecting more than 100,000 households. In Pirojpur, 100 villages were submerged. In Patuakhali , Yash flooded 123 villages. In Cox's Bazar, 121 villages were inundated. Villages in Borguna, Jhalakathi,Khulna and Satkhira were also flooded².

Commercial agricultural activities suffered most. In Pirojpur,7318 hectares of Aus seed bed went under water. In Borishal, 1728 fish-farming structures and ponds were washed away. Meanwhile, 2139 fish-farming structures and ponds in Patuakhali,2151 ponds in Pirojpur,1249 ponds and piscicultural lands in Borguna, 3000 fish-farming structures in Bagerhat,3600 hectares of shrimp and piscicultural lands in Satkhira were washed away. In Cox's Bazar, accompanying rain washed away 2100 tons of sea salt².

In addition, there are reports that thousands of people are living a trapped life in many waterlogged areas. Sea water brought by tidal wave made the matter worst. In Koyra, Khulna, 30,000 people have no access to drinking water as saline water rendered useless traditional sources of drinking water³.

Tourist hotspots like Cox's Bazar and Kuakata also suffered a lot. In Kuakata, 200 small businesses on the shore were directly hit, including hotels, motels and markets. Marine drive road of Cox's Bazar developed cracks after being inundated by Yash.⁴.

In Sundarbans, world's largest mangrove forest, deer, pigs, piglets were drowned. Swollen rivers of Sudarbans washed away thousands of animals in the breeding period of the year.

As the region is lying on sea-level, makeshift embankments are required to protect human settlements and farmlands. Damages in the embankments are being repaired voluntarily by villagers. Poor work during the construction was also blamed. Even public representatives like MP faced wrath of the villagers for the poor work. In Khulna, a local MP went to see the repair work faced the wrath of the villagers, who greeted him throwing mud⁵.

Few months ago, I came across a Facebook post on a page dedicated to old photographs. The post claimed that before the partition the Hindu zamindar in Satkhira set up an embankment with the help of his subjects. The earthen embankment went through regular repair work before the Monsoon. So heavy rain and tidal surge did little damage to the people and farmland. This kind of homegrown and ingenious mean is not visible right now⁶.

This is the same region that witnessed the horror of Cyclone Amphan and two floods a year ago. Back then many NGOs provided them calves to recuperate their loss. Those may be washed away right now. Moreover many are in danger of being defaulter as they borrow money from cooperative, moneylenders or other microcredit organizations to run their farm and non-farm activities.

Fresh credit, interest-free, is needed to resume economic activities there. Government may offer it through credit organizations or via district administration. Interest-free credit will work like a screening mechanism to pick up the true victim. Credit providing institution will do an assessment of the need of the borrowers, keeping at bay the fake ones.

This will tremendously help rehabilitation efforts since misuse of funds will be lower and would-be alleys of corruption will be checked.

One of the lessons left by cyclone Yash is that tidal wave caused huge damage to infrastructures like roads, embankments, houses and other administrative buildings. In addition, the area is prone to river erosion. Hundreds of buildings disappear into river in that area every year.

Instead of permanent concrete structures, we could build these structures on berge or prefabricated steel structure that could easily be moved or shifted to a safer place or float in water in catastrophic events. There is no point in throwing the money into river.

At the same time, a livestock database should be created in the coastal region. So that loss of livestock could be measured and true victim could be identified.

Creation of this database will help the government to trace the marginalized cattle-rearer poultry-farmers and will help designing support programs --- monetary as well as technical --- in times of need.

Another thing I noticed is that there is no widespread deployment of security personnel to facilitate the rehabilitation program this time. They could be used to repair the embankments. And dry food and drinking water could be transported to waterlogged areas. Army, Navy recruit Rakhals(shepherds) to maintain cattle herd in their controlled territory. Could this resource as well as vessels they operate be used to move or rescue cattle of poor people in time of desperation? In this cyclone, we did not see any role of them in protecting public property.

Yash did not take many lives but did serve a heavy blow to livestock. Rural households save their money by raising livestock. At one fell swoop, Yash wiped out that savings. True assessment done by Red Cross and administration will give a clear picture of the damage. There is no doubt they need fresh credit to get back to normalcy. They are counting on government at this trying time.

-----------------------------------------------

Notes and References:

1. Bholae Pranishompoder Bipul Khoti(Huge Loss of Livestock In Bhola), Daily Prothom Alo, May 31, 2021.

2. 91 km Badher Khoti, Koeksho Gram Plabito( 91 km -long Embankment Sustains Damage, Hundreds of Villages Were Inundated, Daily Prothom Alo, May 28, 2021.

3. Koyrai Khawar Panir Sankot(Drinking Water Crisis In Koyra), Daily Prothom Alo, June 01,2021.

4. Saikatjure Yasher Khoto( Beeches Bear Devastation Marks Of Yash), Daily Prothom Alo, May 30,2021.

5. Khotigrosto Badh Dekhte Giye Kadabrishtir Mukhe Sangshad (Mudrain On MP Inspecting Damaged Embankment), Daily Prothom Alo, June 02, 2021.

6. Bangladesher Dushprappo Chhobi Sangraho( Rare Photograph Collection Of Bangladesh), a Facebook page dedicated to publishing rare photographs of Bangladesh.