Aftermath Of Yash

Damaged dam, waterlogged people, drowned cattle,
Tidal wave of a calm storm tests the South-West's mettle.
Fresh credit is needed to resume activity.
Database is a must to trace loss of livestock in any calamity.

A cyclone, named Yash,swept across the South-West part of Bangladesh. It was the tidal surge that caused much of the damage. Full scale of the damage has not yet been ascertained. Bits and pieces of news of the damage are being reported on the press daily. Both men and livestock alike sustained losses. Snapshots provided by nuggets of news reports helped the readers grasp the ordeals the affected people went through.

Loss of lives so far confined to 11 deaths. But loss of livestock was huge. In Bhola alone Yash served a devastating blow to the cattle-rearer. A news report, quoting stat furnished by Department of Livestock, reported that 7,414 livestock had been killed by Yash, affecting another 65,000. Initial loss was reported to be Tk 14.054 million. ¹.

Accompanying tidal surge wreaked the havoc. 91-km-long embankment sustained damage in the hardly hit districts. In Borishal, 120 villages went under water, affecting more than 100,000 households. In Pirojpur, 100 villages were submerged. In Patuakhali , Yash flooded 123 villages. In Cox's Bazar, 121 villages were inundated. Villages in Borguna, Jhalakathi,Khulna and Satkhira were also flooded².

Commercial agricultural activities suffered most. In Pirojpur,7318 hectares of Aus seed bed went under water. In Borishal, 1728 fish-farming structures and ponds were washed away. Meanwhile, 2139 fish-farming structures and ponds in Patuakhali,2151 ponds in Pirojpur,1249 ponds and piscicultural lands in Borguna, 3000 fish-farming structures in Bagerhat,3600 hectares of shrimp and piscicultural lands in Satkhira were washed away. In Cox's Bazar, accompanying rain washed away 2100 tons of sea salt².

In addition, there are reports that thousands of people are living a trapped life in many waterlogged areas. Sea water brought by tidal wave made the matter worst. In Koyra, Khulna, 30,000 people have no access to drinking water as saline water rendered useless traditional sources of drinking water³.

Tourist hotspots like Cox's Bazar and Kuakata also suffered a lot. In Kuakata, 200 small businesses on the shore were directly hit, including hotels, motels and markets. Marine drive road of Cox's Bazar developed cracks after being inundated by Yash.⁴.

In Sundarbans, world's largest mangrove forest, deer, pigs, piglets were drowned. Swollen rivers of Sudarbans washed away thousands of animals in the breeding period of the year.

As the region is lying on sea-level, makeshift embankments are required to protect human settlements and farmlands. Damages in the embankments are being repaired voluntarily by villagers. Poor work during the construction was also blamed. Even public representatives like MP faced wrath of the villagers for the poor work. In Khulna, a local MP went to see the repair work faced the wrath of the villagers, who greeted him throwing mud⁵.

Few months ago, I came across a Facebook post on a page dedicated to old photographs. The post claimed that before the partition the Hindu zamindar in Satkhira set up an embankment with the help of his subjects. The earthen embankment went through regular repair work before the Monsoon. So heavy rain and tidal surge did little damage to the people and farmland. This kind of homegrown and ingenious mean is not visible right now⁶.

This is the same region that witnessed the horror of Cyclone Amphan and two floods a year ago. Back then many NGOs provided them calves to recuperate their loss. Those may be washed away right now. Moreover many are in danger of being defaulter as they borrow money from cooperative, moneylenders or other microcredit organizations to run their farm and non-farm activities.

Fresh credit, interest-free, is needed to resume economic activities there. Government may offer it through credit organizations or via district administration. Interest-free credit will work like a screening mechanism to pick up the true victim. Credit providing institution will do an assessment of the need of the borrowers, keeping at bay the fake ones.

This will tremendously help rehabilitation efforts since misuse of funds will be lower and would-be alleys of corruption will be checked.

One of the lessons left by cyclone Yash is that tidal wave caused huge damage to infrastructures like roads, embankments, houses and other administrative buildings. In addition, the area is prone to river erosion. Hundreds of buildings disappear into river in that area every year.

Instead of permanent concrete structures, we could build these structures on berge or prefabricated steel structure that could easily be moved or shifted to a safer place or float in water in catastrophic events. There is no point in throwing the money into river.

At the same time, a livestock database should be created in the coastal region. So that loss of livestock could be measured and true victim could be identified.

Creation of this database will help the government to trace the marginalized cattle-rearer poultry-farmers and will help designing support programs --- monetary as well as technical --- in times of need.

Another thing I noticed is that there is no widespread deployment of security personnel to facilitate the rehabilitation program this time. They could be used to repair the embankments. And dry food and drinking water could be transported to waterlogged areas. Army, Navy recruit Rakhals(shepherds) to maintain cattle herd in their controlled territory. Could this resource as well as vessels they operate be used to move or rescue cattle of poor people in time of desperation? In this cyclone, we did not see any role of them in protecting public property.

Yash did not take many lives but did serve a heavy blow to livestock. Rural households save their money by raising livestock. At one fell swoop, Yash wiped out that savings. True assessment done by Red Cross and administration will give a clear picture of the damage. There is no doubt they need fresh credit to get back to normalcy. They are counting on government at this trying time.

-----------------------------------------------

Notes and References:

1. Bholae Pranishompoder Bipul Khoti(Huge Loss of Livestock In Bhola), Daily Prothom Alo, May 31, 2021.

2. 91 km Badher Khoti, Koeksho Gram Plabito( 91 km -long Embankment Sustains Damage, Hundreds of Villages Were Inundated, Daily Prothom Alo, May 28, 2021.

3. Koyrai Khawar Panir Sankot(Drinking Water Crisis In Koyra), Daily Prothom Alo, June 01,2021.

4. Saikatjure Yasher Khoto( Beeches Bear Devastation Marks Of Yash), Daily Prothom Alo, May 30,2021.

5. Khotigrosto Badh Dekhte Giye Kadabrishtir Mukhe Sangshad (Mudrain On MP Inspecting Damaged Embankment), Daily Prothom Alo, June 02, 2021.

6. Bangladesher Dushprappo Chhobi Sangraho( Rare Photograph Collection Of Bangladesh), a Facebook page dedicated to publishing rare photographs of Bangladesh.

Rice Stock Woe

Low rice stock in disaster year
Causes concern and fear.

Recently a news report published on a leading daily laid bare holes in our food security. According to the report, government's stock of rice is lowest in 13 years. Government has stored only 311,000 tons of rice at a moment when it needs to provide support for COVID-19 stricken vulnerable population group (Source: Daily Prothom Alo, April 24,2021). What is interesting in that report is that government itself is failing to keep pace with its anticipated stock of rice. It planned to stock 1 million tons of rice in government storage facilities across the country. But it managed to store only 311,000 tons.

It is indeed interesting that just a year ago Bangladesh was ranked by third largest rice producing country in the world by an institution. There is indeed truth in it. This success is largely driven by Boro, which is our biggest crop. Currently Boro harvest is going on. Once it is done we will see slight improvement in government's storing of rice. In 2012, our total foodgrain production was 36.83 million tons of which Boro accounts 18.76 million tons. In 2019, total foodgrain production was 41.57 million tons of which Boro accounts for 19.62 million tons(Source: BER 2019). Boro's share in total food production is always more than 45%.

So when the Boro harvest will be completed, a definitive conclusion can be made on government's rice storage. How did we end up having lowest rice stock in a decade? Many will look for answer to this question as such a crisis was widely anticipated following twin blows from flood and cyclone Amphan a year ago.

Back in May last year, I wrote a titled "Agriculture Holds The Key" where I analyzed relationship between rice production and foodgrain import during disaster and normal years. I gathered data for import of foodgrain and rice production at home delving Bangladesh Economic Review 2018. The period under consideration was between 1996 and 2017. The model did not turn out to be significant at 5% level of significance. But it was significant at 10% level. But individual coefficients including dummy coefficient did not appear to be significant at 5% level of significance.

Though the data at hand did not lend evidence, there is no gainsaying that foodgrain import was higher during disaster years. For instance, in the flood year of 1999 we imported 5491 thousand metric ton of foodgrain. In 1998 we also witnessed a severe flood.In 2000, a calm year, we imported 2104 thousand metric ton of grain. In 2008, post Sidr year, we suffered from cyclone Reshmi and imported 3471 thousand metric ton of foodgrain. The point is if natural calamity damages our crop production, we rely heavily on foodgrain import. Some years remain as exception.

Last year was a disaster year. Even the government acknowledged that it would need more rice to sustain its social security effort next year. Government planned to import 2 million tons of rice this year, but it managed to import 1 million tons, as the news report revealed. The market price of coarse rice spiraled up and was between Tk 48 and Tk 50, sensing the lower rice stock of the government.

Government procurement of rice did not proceed as it was anticipated. Passing of blame has been going on. There is an urgent need to meet government's rice storage gap.

Another danger is with rise in price of rice the price of other substitute product is likely to rise. For instance, wheat price, which is also included in government's procurement list. In 2018-19, government set a procurement target of 728,000 metric tons of food grain. And government finally imported 267,000 tons of wheat of which 56,000 tons of rice and 211,000 tons of wheat (Source: BER 2019).

Last year a news broke out that wheat production would fall short. Key wheat producing countries even imposed ban on wheat export. However, later it turned out that wheat production was much better. As government engaged in negotiation with Russia on Covid vaccine, it should also start talks to secure import of a good amount of wheat, eschewing or compromising its ban on wheat export.

Meanwhile, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar have good storage of rice. Government should redouble its effort to import rice from these countries as soon as possible.

It is bizarre that while there has been grim forecast of major foodgrain production, we have started procurement of foodgrain with much delay.

Let us remain optimistic about the ongoing Boro harvest and hope that ongoing situation does not turn worse. The pandemic has already pushed million to grinding poverty and many are finding it hard to get 3-square meal per day. At this turbulent time government needs to ramp up its program to widen food security. Procuring a mix of vital staples and ensuring its just distribution should be the prime concern.

Cost Of Hiding The True Cost

Funds allocated to flood-hit roads.
True cost of damage often remains untold.
Stealing public fund gains acceptance in society.
Independent body can reveal project's nitty-gritty.

A news report says government allocated Tk 59.06 billion to 390 upazillas, administrative units bigger than village, in a bid to repair damaged roads, bridges and embankment. Frequent flooding, torrential rain and cyclone Amphan inflicted serious damages to rural infrastructure. The allocation will address the losses resulting from calamities and bring back them to operational level, as anticipated by the policy makers. Post-disaster period sees this kind of damage-repairing investments. We are accustomed to it. Will that money be spent properly and to the projects for which the money is assigned? Past experience does not leave reason to be optimistic. Free season of corruption is going on.

In the first week of November, Transparency International Bangladesh in one of its reports found that 54% of the funds allocated to 7 climate change related projects were misappropriated. Management of the projects based on political consideration, swindling of money, nepotism and deception are common characteristics of the doomed projects. Governance has not improved at a remarkable level that assures one that similar fate does not await the road-repair projects.

Another thing to take note is how the assessment of the damage was done. If news report was the source of the damaged figure then how did the cost of the damage apprise? Often the houses do not have means to verify the claims of the damage independently. If the government officials did the damage assessment then inflating the damage figure went along well with their interests. It ensures relatively bigger share of the pie for the cohorts. Government has a monitoring and evaluation department. But rarely it appears with embarrassing findings and shares it with the press. Private NGO like TIB takes the onus of revealing the uncomfortable findings of public office.

It is obvious that there is no transparent and trustworthy mechanism within the government that spills the beans of impartial investigation / evaluation.Lack of political will also remains a source of worry and pain. Entrenched political atmosphere made even that prospects grimmer.

Back in 2009-10, Annual Development Expenditures (ADP) on transport and communication were Tk 22.42 billion and Tk 2.71 billion respectively. The expenditures stood at Tk 216.57 billion and Tk 22.69 billion respectively in 2016-17. (Source: BER 20 The figures capture commitment of the government to these two sectors. Spending increased couple of times more than what it was in 2009-10. It is important to note that many development partners also invested in these two sectors and credit they gave also reflected in ADP(revised). Government is merely an implementing / supervising body of the projects here. People of the country have to repay the loans and interests irrespective of quality of the projects. Now here comes the million dollar question: did the people get desired utility from the spending on transport and communication sector?

Ease of travel, hassle-free travel sound like bygone era talks to regular travelers. Safety is not ensured as more and more precious lives perish on roads every day. Consumers and producers of vital goods and services do not get benefit from linking of growth centers and consumption centers. Natural calamities, river erosion could be mentioned as reasons for damages to roads and communication infrastructure. But it does not necessarily mean that our roads will become useless in such a short span of time. Flash flood does not mean to wash away a road.

Quality of projects and reporting of the true cost/ damage have remained serious concern to those who feel pretty bad about waste of tax payers' money. It has been taken as granted that the public fund is meant to be stolen. So the cost of a project or damage to an infrastructure remains buried deep down the list of priority.

At a time when the media is coerced and cornered, no one bothers about a report on washed away embankment cost an astonishing sum. While hard working and true Tax and VAT payers pay the price of such corrupted projects out of their own pockets, precedents of future corruption are set.

In a country where corruption is rampant and society tolerates stealing of public fund , creation of a strong evaluation and reporting body of public fund financed projects is call of the hour.

In Bangladesh we see some state organs are accountable, but some remains immune from any kind of accountability. Let's elaborate the point with an hypothetical example. Think of an office with many departments that are accountable to management except one department.

Corrupt officials of that department will use the leverage to spread corruption within the department and to other departments. They will find kindred spirits in other departments and in connivance with them they will start to swell cosmetically the spending of the departments. At the end of the day, cost of no accountability in one department increases spending of the company many times and fills the coffer of the corrupts. This is not desirable at all.

In Bangladesh, we have a tendency to copycat anything from the West. Unfortunately, we do not take cue from the West the shining examples of governance and accountability. Unchecked project implementation is tantamount to waste public money and a great disservice to the taxpayers.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(15 mai --- 22 mai)

Selon un reportage, UBER Eats a affirmé que la société allait fermer son bureau au Bangladesh à compter de début de juin.

Selon un reportage, des ouvriers se sont insurgés contre leur arriéré et sont descendus dans la rue à Mirpur. Ils ont immobilisé les rues à Mirpur-10 et Mirpur-13.

Selon un reportage, des gens ont mis le feu à la maison d’un chanteur folklorique à Sunamganj. La maison a été détruite.

Selon un reportage, cyclone Amphan, entrainait rafales de 160 km/h, a frappé les côtes de Bengal occidental en Inde et le Sud-ouest du Bangladesh. 80 personnes, dont 16 Bangladais, ont été tuées par le cyclone. L’abattage a provoqué le plupart de mort. L’orage a balayé les champs de riz, les établissements de crevettecole, les manguiers. Le gouvernement estime un bilan de Tk 11 miliards. Le prix de mangue a chuté à cause de cyclone Amphan. Un kilo de mangue coût Tk 0,50 paisa à Rajshahi.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh a enregistré 30205 cas de coronavirus. Le vendredi, Bangladesh a détecté 1694 cas de coronavirus. La propagation s’allonce mal.