Let It Pass

It's a raging storm ,we are in the midst.
In the middle of a field, like a tiny little grass.
Deep in our thought,hoping firmly with a clenched fist:
Let it pass, let it pass,let it pass.

Many years ago, I watched a movie whose name I could not recall(I think it was “We Were Soldiers”).In that movie, an American Army officer was about to go to a new frontline. Some nights before the deployment, he scribbled down few lines in his note book. I could not exactly recall the lines, but it goes like this: if you go to a war with a just cause and with the right side, win is inevitable; but if you jump into an unjust war, lacking support of most of the people,you are heading to a catastrophe.

Hardly anyone has ever imagined there will be another war in Europe. Both the Ukrainian and the Russian are decent and talented races. The word “Gentleman”,which has long been reserved for the English, could be aptly put after them. They share a common history and linguistic identity. However, independence is a thing that is even cherished by the most powerless and socially marginalized people.

The war in Ukraine reminded me the story of a Polish Army officer during the World War II. His story,title I could not recall, was translated into Bengali and regularly published on "Rohoshya Patrika", a local monthly on adventure and mystery. The Army officer was also Jewish. Poland was occupied both by the German and the Russian. It is a story of betrayal, persecution and stiff resistance of a tough race. Like Poland, Ukraine, as old as my first published poem, has been back stabbed by its allies. Ukrainians do not know fate of their country has been sealed. Ukrainians like the Poles put up a good fight and are showing their true color. Many captured Russian soldiers were telling that they had been told to take part in military manoeuver but found to their surprise in a real battlefield. Buccaneering Russians have gained some success but Ukrainians also put up valiant effort. It appears to me that it is going to be a protracted war unless the Russians pull out of Ukraine quickly or reach a consensus with the Ukrainians.

In Bangladesh, we are already feeling the fall-outs of the war. Inflation,unofficially crossed the double digit mark, is making a dent into the pockets of the ordinary citizens. Ukraine is the 3rd largest producer of corn and 5th largest producer of wheat. Russia too is one of the top producers of wheat.Bangladesh imports wheat from both the countries.Protracted war and subsequent sanctions will make the wheat procurement harder.In addition, corn is used to make poultry feed and fish feed. Food prices are likely to rise.

Russia is financing development projects in Bangladesh. An $11 billion Russian credit is behind the construction of country’s first nuclear power plant. $100 per barrel oil price underscores its importance.In winter, when water level goes down, water pumps are needed to irrigate the winter paddy fields, vital for ensuring our food security. This irrigation process is diesel-intensive.In 2012-13,government provided a total subsidy of TK 427.46 billion and TK 135.58 billion was oil subsidy¹. When oil prices were low,no subsidy was needed for three consecutive years.A year ago government gave a subsidy of Tk 530 billion,of which diesel subsidy accounts Tk 230 billion².Now with higher oil prices,more subsidy is needed.

2400 MW nuclear power plant to some extent will ease the diesel-subsidy burden. Most of the work is complete and first plant will come to operation next year.But sanctions on Russian bank VEB,which is financing the project, make it difficult to carry through³. And Bangladesh has to rely more on costly diesel to ensure its food security.

The sanctions on the Russians are useless. Because it only drives up the oil and gas prices. Though initially Russia may loose some market share ,it will cover the losses with higher oil prices. Iran somehow skirted these sanctions selling oil prices below market price. In a scenario like more than $100 a barrel, Russian offer in the below market price will be much higher, making it in a far more comfortable position to finance war. Already, major oil producing countries show reluctance to take tough stance against Russia, second largest exporter of gas and oil. This higher fossil fuel price only swells the pockets of American and Russian companies and makes it easier to offer corona incentives to their citizens and companies. Moreover,it will proliferate black market activity and who will inspect whether Nord Stream is really complying the sanctions! Meanwhile,ordinary Ukrainians endure ordeals of war in cold basements and bunkers.

The effort to keep the Russians outside the international financial system is only heralding dawn of digital currency ,paving their path for future legitimacy and widespread acceptability. Iran has already dealt with such sanctions by floating new banks, doing currency swap or dealing between central banks.Moreover,ban on SWIFT will make the alternate payment systems floated by Russia and China operational pretty quickly⁴. Though they may not wield significant influence, but endorsement of twenty or more countries to such payment mechanism may undermine any SWIFT restriction in the future.

The war in Ukraine may work as a precursor to other territorial misadventure in future. We should stay aloof from such temptations. One of the pitfalls of such war is that they manufacture historical precedent for future war! Photograph of a Muslim Imam blessing the Nazis in occupied Yugoslavia played crucial role in ethnic cleansing of Bosnian Muslims in the Balkan war.War concessions laid out by allied forces in World War I played some role in creating the second one.

What is important is maintaining the high moral ground, standing for the just cause, respecting the international norms and making legitimate demands to be heard and accepted. By not dragging ourselves into any conflict ,we also thwart future conflicts. What matters is the brand Bangladesh. More shinier and likable it will become, more prosperous we will be.In a country where most of the people cannot get three full-course meal every day, war is a luxury that it cannot afford. We do not confront a raging bull or a storm,we just wait and let it pass. Time is the best healer.

Notes And References:

1 Bangladesh Economic Review 2019

2 "Be Rational About Fuel Price Hike Because Subsidy Has A Limit: PM", The Business Standard,November 17,2021. For more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/be-rational-about-fuel-price-hike-subsidy-has-limit-pm-330982

3 “Bangladesh Bank Warns Of Transactions With Russian Entities Amid Sanctions Over Ukraine”,bdnews24.com,March 04,2022.For more read at https://m.bdnews24.com/en/detail/economy/2024811

4 “Aat Bocchor Agey Thekey Prostoti Nicchey Russia(Russia Taking Preparations For The Last 8 Years)”,Daily Prothom Alo(Page 12),February 28,2022.

[Note:This piece has been updated on March 09,2022 at 12:18 Bangladesh Standard Time (BST).The update includes reference to the Tk 530 billion subsidy in 2021.]