Tuesday, December 9, 2025

E-rickshaw: Bane Or Boon?

Dhaka streets dominated by e-rickshaw,
Missing bill lays bare the objective flaw.

Recently, a news report divulged that electric [rickshaws] in Dhaka city cost the govt Tk 40 billion as missing electricity bill. Over 1 million e-rickshaw[s] now ply over Dhaka city. Sympathy stemming from popularity of e-rickshaw led the authority to allow more than 3000 charging points across Dhaka. But in reality the number of charging points surpassed 50000 long ago. These points clandestinely charge e-rickshaw everyday, resulting in annual loss of electricity bill worth Tk 40 billion(See"Bangla Tesla Boom Drains Nearly Tk 4000 Crore Power Theft A Year In Dhaka",Jahidul Islam,The Business Standard, December 03,2025)

Energy efficient, pollution free,employment opportunities at the city maybe the reasons for allowing e-rickshaw on the streets of Dhaka. However, closer scrutiny laid bare hollowness of the [arguments]. The loss of Tk 40 billion nailed the argument of energy efficiency. Fossil fuel used to produce that electricity will not get back to govt coffer. Moreover, govt has to spend more to recuperate the loss. The growing number of e-rickshaw means more import of LNG and furnace oil to produce electricity to charge the e-rickshaw! More import of fossil fuel increases pollution. Higher earning prospect lured many rural laborers to Dhaka ,worsening urban density and public health at cramped accommodation places. It further increases the risk of fire incidents, organized criminal activity. At the same time, at individual level, it is subject of closer scrutiny that it really reduces transportation cost. Reality is that it is no longer cheaper. In some cases, it is worsening traffic system, deteriorating law and order situation. In a span of two years, we saw e-rickshaw pullers attacked traffic police booth and Metro station in Dhaka.

Nowadays, electric vehicles are becoming popular mode of transportation as growing sign of ditching fossil fuel fed vehicles. Bangladesh is no exception, overwhelming presence of e-rickshaw in the streets of Dhaka is the manifestation. Could we really get rid of fossil fuel or half its consumption? Economist William Stanley Jevons observed that efficient use of an energy source ,caused by technological advancement, led to more consumption of that energy source instead of lowering its consumption later. It is known as Jevons paradox. Energy efficiency is supposed to lower consumption of a particular energy source. But opposite is happening! Jevons watched that Watt's steam engine,a brand new thing back then and more efficient than other engines, consumed less coal but total coal consumption increased because of widespread use of this new energy-efficient engine. What is worrying the consumption of that energy source is more when the good/service is more responsive to price changes (price elastic demand). Use of electricity instead of petrol/diesel made transportation/ travel cheaper and thereby increase the demand for transportation/travel. More people travel than before. Subsequent study of Jevons paradox shows that increased energy efficiency leads to increase [in] income and economic growth,causing [overall ndemand to rise](See Jevons Paradox,Wikipedia) . Clearly, key motivation behind allowing e-rickshaw is backfiring! Undoubtedly, rickshaw puller's income augmented manifold from switching paddle rickshaw to electric version. It drew more people to this vocation and increased the number of this vehicle. Now look at the cost. Govt allotted Tk 90 billion for LNG subsidy and Tk 200 billion for power subsidy in this year's budget. Moreover, it abolished 15% VAT on LNG import, risking its revenue collection target. LNG is the main source of electricity generation in this country,followed by furnace oil and coal. Missing bill of Tk 40 billion is a mockery to that subsidy run by taxpayer's money. There is clearly a loss in revenue. In addition ,more public spending in the next year for meeting need for even greater number of e-rickshaw. Nowadays, price of electric scooter drops. An e-scooter costs around Tk 30000 or Tk 40000. This allows students,women [and other income group] to have an e-scooter ,increasing the total number of bike riders in the capital. Use of electricity instead of fuel brought down per kilometer cost of transportation. But it also increases the number of vehicles and commuters. Consequently, to run those vehicles, we need more electricity. And more electricity generation means more fossil fuel. Not only that electricity from solar power plant ,nuclear power plant also needs backup. So in the end we need more fossil fuel run power plants not just to produce increased demand for electricity but to back up the electricity from renewable energy. That means we have to continue with the quick rental power plants,which we are trying to ditch, for quite some time.

It is indeed interesting that eco friendly and energy efficient arguments set the context for allowing e-rickshaw on Dhaka streets. But it is resulting in electricity loss,inefficient resource allocation, abuse of subsidy, and more fossil fuel consumption. A totally different outcome what the policymakers envisaged at the initial stage. It is time to revisit the policy objective of allowing e-rickshaw in Dhaka and to chalk out some course corrective measures.

Monday, December 8, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(06 décembre --- 12 décembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
06 Pain,Lait poudre Riz,Soupe aux lentilles Riz gonflé(depuis marché),Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---
07 Pain,Lait poudre Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois chiches(depuis marché) Riz gonflé(depuis marché),Pois chiches(depuis marché) --
08 Pain,Pois chiches(depuis marché),Œuf Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Navet,Radis,Petit poisson Riz gonflé(depuis marché),Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---
09 Pain,Œuf,Petit poisson Riz,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc Pain,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc --
10 Pain,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc Riz,Taro,Épinard malabar,Tête de chèvre (depuis marché),Pois blanc --- ---
11 --- --- --- --

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(29 novembre --- 05 décembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
29 Khichuri,Œuf --- Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard d'eau(depuis marché),Pianju(depuis marché) ---
30 Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard d'eau(depuis marché),Chou fleur,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Pois chiches,Pianju(depuis marché) --
01 Pain,Chou fleur,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Bread toast(from market) ---
02 Pain,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Pois chiches(depuis marché) --
03 Pain,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Pain,Chou fleur ---
04 Pain,Chou fleur Riz,Chou fleur,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Chou fleur,Soupe aux lentilles --
05 Singara(depuis marché),Riz gonflé(depuis marché) Riz gonflé,Pois chiches(depuis marché) Riz gonflé,Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Flaws In Our Market

Imperfection lies in the market,
Collective efforts needed to make it perfect.

The basic ingredients of a perfectly competitive market have not been functioning well for a long time in Bangladesh. Let us take a look at key characteristics of this kind of market(source:Investopedia):

  • All firms sell identical product.
  • All firms are price takers,not price influencers.
  • Buyers(as well as sellers) have complete or perfect information about the product being sold and prices charged by each firm now,earlier and in the future.
  • Capital resources and labor are completely mobile
  • Market share does not influence price
  • Firms can enter or exit the market without cost.

There is however imperfection in every market and industry and pure competitive market is an idealized state. Nevertheless, govt,consumers and industry all thrive to achieve a perfectly competitive market or at least try to get as close to such an idealized state. Now let us see how these characteristics are violated in Bangladesh.

All firms are price takers is only possible when there exists a large number of buyers and sellers. Except kitchen market, most of the markets including consumer good market consist of few firms,which influence price. That means there is not too many sellers. Industry or market where initial investment is too high does not expect large number of producers. Utility, aviation can be presented as an example. But other industries which require relatively fair investment do not see enough market players. That means a good amount of entry barrier is put in place, deterring the entry of new firms. Biased govt policy,which is prevalent in this part of the world,is behind fostering the entry barrier. Rice,soybean oil market could be an apt example. International market prices are falling and current rate tells a price around Tk 46/kilo. But it is selling at much higher rate. Reason is unknown. But if govt considers consumer interests then awarding more permits to rice importers may make an impact. In the soybean oil market, few conglomerates were allowed to operate and in the change of events they showed their colors,creating a difficult situation to deal with. Moreover, proper documentation at the wholesale level of soybean oil market is not maintained, as I mentioned here several times. Tacit support to this kind of practices by the govt in the past contributed to the anarchy in the soybean oil market.

Flawed macroeconomic policy in the past led to higher policy rate hike later,[causing] barrier to new entrants in any industry. At the same time, exit from an industry is not that easy because many lending institutions sued many firms for not paying back the credit.

Capital resources and labor are not perfectly mobile here. In the past, credit often went to the projects that were not viable and that promoted creed loyalty over merit. Moreover, unaccountable development projects by govt limited private sector's access to credit as large part of bank's money went to finance these public projects. Similarly, politically motivated thrust sectors witness destruction of productive capital. Labor engaged in these sectors ,which are not so productive. There are just few companies in the consumer good market. So workers have little choice to go elsewhere.

Lack of information persists in the market. Consumers and small producers do not get the complete picture of the production cost. Moreover, motif of harvesting an industry often leads to narrative manufacturing. This disinformation/ lack of information prevents the consumer from making right choices and small producers from taking appropriate steps. Lack of proper regulatory environment is also a reason consumers not getting complete information about an industry.

It appears that too few firms and lack of regulatory environment are the main obstacles towards a perfectly competitive market in Bangladesh. If regulatory setup functioned properly,we did not have misallocation of credit in the banks. Regular auditioning and intervention by BCC,CAB,BTRC,BERC and BSEC will let consumers know why there are few firms in the industry ,true cost of production, why firms are not paying dividends despite making profits and what the future fiscal and energy policy will be. Market is not created with perfect competition. It is the collective efforts that will lead it to perfect competition.

Monday, November 24, 2025

Change Means More Choices,Not Less

True change does not mean less choices,
Competition raises through regulatory practices.

Perhaps the biggest victim of the present govt is the regulatory environment. Since this interim govt has an apolitical look, bureaucracy responsible for operations of regulatory bodies does not feel urge to function them. Regulatory bodies continued routine work during political govt. Even that is somehow stopped. Consumers are paying the price. Regime change is supposed to bring more options to consumers, giving them some comfort.

Yet experience so far is completely opposite. Let me share some personal experiences. Recent earthquake exposed once again that the mobile internet is terribly slow in the country.Except one leading operator,all the operators provide slow internet since January 10,2024. I desperately contacted in vain BTRC earlier to improve the service of mobile internet. Product prices have gone up,but speed is terribly slow. As I tried to post my situation at home on that frightening day, I found how slow the thing is. They however offered me free minutes to call the dear ones later. Meanwhile ,operators blame the govt for taxing them too much: Tk22-28 [goes] to govt for every Tk 100 spent on mobile phone services, the operators claim. Till July this year, there was some sort of public hearing at BTRC,even that is stopped. The biggest inaction is seen from the Bangladesh Competition Commission(BCC). It seems to stop functioning.

The dairy products of the local shops are overwhelmingly dominated by two brands: a govt-backed cooperative and an NGO-run subsidiary. [Govt-run] cooperative is still there because money can be appropriated without any accountability and a trade-union like atmosphere exists. The NGO-run subsidiary is there because they have other businesses in the neighborhood: Mobile Financial Services (MFS), microcredit business. These allow them to influence the local business environment and the supply chain. Microcredit agencies do not pay taxes. But the dairy brand does pay taxes.

This is where we badly need intervention of BCC. Those who are involved in credit/capital management businesses should not engage in any other business at all. In the USA, we do not see Citibank has a food subsidiary, tech company or an university. Even if it does have any,it should not possess a significant market share in the respective industry. Most of these subsidiaries control more than 50% market share at home. As the winter arrived, to my surprise, I found that only butter brand available at the local shop is that of NGO-run subsidiary. I do not have any issues with the brand. But I want more options. More choices mean more competition, low price, better quality. That is not happening around me.

Sometimes regulatory body feels awkward when top military bureaucrat's dear one,some advisors have lucrative professional engagement with NGO-run subsidiary.

Point is BCC does not need to wait for any complaint, it can intervene immediately whenever it sees capture of significant market share by a company, violating competition and consumer rights.

Consumers are paying the price from their pockets. Last year a tyre factory owned by a former ruling party MP witnessed vandalization. The tyre brand went out of the business, hiking the prices of tyres in the local market. The void is still not filled.

Another businessman cum politician,now in jail, owns a pharmaceutical company with global reputation and it had easy access to all the neighborhoods when Awami League was in power. Now some of its medicines are no more at the local market. Some of them are cheap and good in quality. So patients are forced to purchase the costly options.

The issues here are: first,it is indeed bad idea to finance lucrative businesses of politically exposed individual. Beximco's acquisition of GlaxoSmithkline operations here could have been stopped at the first place. It is a serious regulatory failure. Second, in the change of events ,regulatory body's intervention is needed to smooth operation of the troubled companies so that consumers do not get hurt and competition prevails.

Another business group currently under scrutiny for plundering a bank and laundering money abroad, is attempting to promote a new food brand. At one hand, authority remained mum when it plundered a bank. On the other, authority allows it to venture upon new businesses while taking a complete opposite stance against other groups with opposite creed. This kind of double standard should be avoided. Govt needs to mull about greater good of the consumer and business environment and its subsequent business should reflect it.

Competition and consumer rights are always less prioritized issues for any govt. By fixing the two , we could fix many issues including the political ones. Unfortunately regulatory bodies take a hit instead of becoming more active during the interim govt. I highlighted here before in many pieces(See"Growing Unease:Revenue & Inflation" published here on December 06,2024), companies and institutions that have capacity to mobilize resources at the ground and have political aspirations should be subject of intense scrutiny and regulations*. Somehow conflict of interest and inaction of bureaucracy hold back the regulatory body to function properly. Competition at the market cannot be ensured unless the regulatory bodies do the routine work regularly. I think the constitution and the Parliament should empower the bodies so that a fair play ground prevails for all and consumers can get more choices. Any true change means more choices,not less!

[*Update: this piece is updated by me on November 25,2025 at 9:10 AM Bangladesh Standard Time. Update includes reference to seeking regulations on institutions that have huge capital and political aspirations.]

Saturday, November 22, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(22 novembre --- 28 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
22 Pain,Lait,Œuf Danish(bonbon local,depuis marché) Riz,Soupe au vigna mungo,Radis,Petit taro chinois ---
23 Pain,Chou,Œuf Riz,Épinard,Soupe au vigna mungo,Radis,Petit taro Pois chiches,Pianju(depuis marché) --
24 Pain,Chou fleur,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Chou,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois blanc ---
25 Pain,Chou,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Petit poisson,Soupe aux lentilles,Radis --
26 Pain,Chou,Radis,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou fleur,Petit poisson, Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---
27 Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Chou fleur,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles Pain(depuis marché),Lait --
28 Pain,Chou fleur,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Bread toast(depuis marché),Nouilles ---

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(15 novembre --- 21 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
15 Pain,Chou,Œuf Singara(from market) Riz ,Nouilles,Petit poisson ---
16 Pain,Chou fleur,Œuf Riz ,Feuilles de moutarde, Petit poisson Puri(depuis marché) --
17 Pain,Œuf,Lait Riz,Petit poisson,Courge amère,Beans Pois chiches(depuis marché) ---
18 Pain,Beans,Œuf Riz ,Courge amère,Gourde bouteille,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Gourde bouteille,Soupe aux lentilles --
19 Œuf Riz,Petit poisson,Soupe aux vigna mungo Puri(from market) ---
20 Riz ,Œuf,Petit poisson,Soupe au vigna mungo Singara(depuis marché) Nouilles --
21 Pain,Chou fleur,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Pois chiches,Pianju(from market) ---

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Sixth Instalment Delayed

Few clear economic reform agenda on the sight,
Recovery delays ,so does the freedom from economic plight.

The IMF in a press conference stated that it would negotiate the sixth instalment of the $5.5 billion credit package with the next elected govt,which is likely to assume power by February next year. The present govt has three months to go and the contesting parties have not yet presented any detailed scheme on economic recovery, as I highlighted here several times. Moreover, macroeconomic situation has improved a lot since the program started: erosion of reserve stopped, market determined exchange rate is set, inflation eased slightly, and flexible exchange rate is introduced.

If this positive trends continue and post election optimism prevails, the remaining instalments may not be needed. On top of that ,if elected govt is not committed to economic reform programs envisioned by the IMF, it will be pointless to continue the reform programs here. So a wait-and-see approach is adopted.

When this mission arrived, they were eager to know when the central govt would lower the policy rate. The central bank on the other hand plans to lower the policy rate when inflation falls below 5 or 6%. Inflation is still hovering over 8% and the IMF's projection for the rest of this fiscal year is that inflation would remain elevated above 8%.

The latest statement hints they accepted the argument offered by the central bank. They are in favor of lowering of policy rate when inflation rate falls below 6%.

The IMF even sat with several political parties to have a glimpse about their economic programs. Long before the arrival of the IMF, former commerce minister and BNP senior leader Amir Khosru Mahmud Chaudhuri stated BNP believes sovereignty of the central bank but it opposes separation of policy and implementation departments of the NBR. Reform programs outlined by other parties are not so pronounced. Women participation to the economy and recent "end-of-prophecy" movement garnered lots of media attention. The "end-of-prophecy" movement created communal tensions in the country. Particularly the Ahmadiya community who thinks their leader was the last prophet feels intimidated. The persecuted group has huge presence and investment in Bangladesh. Pushing up this sort of political campaign widens the fault lines existed in Political field and threatens the stability of politics and economy.

The NBR chairman in an interview said from next year the NBR would cease to impose decision on taxes abruptly and it would pass the authority to the Parliament. End of ad hoc practice of decision making would benefit the business here as tax policy would be more projectionable and it will help them in business operations and investment plan.

Govt is criticised right and left as it is not taking any bold steps towards reforms. As I mentioned earlier, this govt is formed through blackmailing: the chief advisor himself was about to languish in prison, the commerce advisor faced several charges before taking up the post, legal advisor and student advisors were summoned to the cantonment on the eventful days of July last year. And most importantly it was formed to rescue the economy, not to do any bold political reforms, riding on the image of Prof Yunus. The objective was partly fulfilled , but to a great extent it was a disaster. A govt formed through blackmailing does not deliver much. Macroeconomic situation improved, yet passport fell in international ranking,overseas employment shrank, western countries restrict entry of Bangladeshis, political rift widened as a major political party will be absent in next election, NPL situation worsened, law & order situation deteriorated further. I think it is naive to expect much from a mandate less ,blackmailed govt. Bangladeshis in general are eying towards the next election. They hope the situations will improve a lot under the new govt.

In brief, sixth instalment is delayed to see what the next elected govt will offer as economic reforms and how the economy behaves in the meantime. Despite major macroeconomic improvement, we should not expect much from this blackmailed govt!

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

It Is Indeed Good For Us

Delaying graduation clips the wings,
Delaying opportunities as popular mood swings.

Bangladesh's plan to become graduate from Least Developing Countries(LDC) faces stiff resistance from various quarters. In 2026, Bangladesh is scheduled to get out from LDC countries, discarding the privileges it is enjoying all these years. Bangladesh is supposed to be a developing country by 2020. However,COVID-19 obstructed the graduation. Now many business platforms and other organizations suggest the govt to delay the graduation for another 3/5 years. Removal of duty-free access,higher cost of private loan, Intellectual Property Related(IPR) restrictions are identified as reasons behind such proposition.

Govt earlier decided to make appeal against graduation, but later dropped the idea in favor [of] smooth graduation. I personally think smooth graduation will be best possible alternative instead of delay. This is not the first time we are encountering a situation like this.The closure of Multi Fiber Arrangement back in 2005 cast similar shadow over our RMG export and economy. The MFA allowed Bangladesh to source raw-materials from various countries and export the ready-made garments to the West, which also gave Bangladesh quota on RMG export. The facility was a relaxation on value addition clause and ensured some set market access for Bangladesh. Many argued that post-MFA and Quota period [would] be a doomsday scenario for Bangladesh garments. Fortunately, Bangladesh proved them wrong, increasing volume of export from mere $5 billion to more than $40 billion now. And Bangladesh also increased its value addition in the RMG sector. It also witnessed unprecedented amount of investment in backward and forward linkage industry.

By the same token, I am convinced, post-LDC graduation will be a path strewn with overcoming challenges,bringing the changes needed for a developing country and endless opportunities against the overblown challenges.

First, disappearance of duty-free access is an ungrounded fear. The moment I am writing this ,Japan has already given Bangladesh duty-free access for 3 more years after LDC graduation in 2026. Tariff debate has led to bilateral trade agreements that witness many countries enjoying favorable access to developed countries. FTAs,PTAs turn out to be deciding factors here. Despite being an LDC country,Bangladesh may lose big if its rivals get FTA advantage to key export destinations. Solution is to become a developing country and ink more FTAs.

Second, duty-free access to developed countries also accompanied with money laundering activities through faulty ,and willful, trade invoices. Even official export figure encountered $10 billion mismatch in 2024, an embarrassment to the govt. Removal of duty-free access will curb the incidence of money laundering and provide opportunities for more able exporters,showing the wrongdoers the exit door. Small and medium factories will become subcontractors of big exporters. Voilà, this withdrawal of duty-free access is not an issue.

Third, no more soft credit is also a boon for Bangladesh. As I shared this perception before, higher interest rate works as screen to thwart any attempt to take unnecessary loans. Bangladeshis in general are paying the price for this unaccountable development works at the cost of their money with the support of soft credit. So there will be less unreasonable development works with the evaporation of soft credit. Private sector that depends on overseas credit market will come to stock market for financing, developing the local bond market and ensuring more accountability and transparency.

Fourth, intellectual property right hurdles will pave the path for domestic investment on local solutions for addressing the issue. One argument I hear is that medicines will be costly as the ingredients will be costly (they will no longer be free). Govt recently lowered duty on cancer-related drugs. Govt can do so for essential drugs on serious diseases. I think once this advantage is over,we will see shutting down of many small pharmaceutical companies. Many of them have capacity to produce base ingredients for medicines of silly diseases and often they are being used as precursor to make narcotics in the neighboring countries. UNODC already highlighted the issue in its report(see "UNODC Report & Meth Market Of Bangladesh" published here on July 25,2019). LDC graduation is a hidden blessing for Bangladesh in combatting the narco. It will significantly lower the incidence of narco activities and curbing the volume of narco trade and thereby lowering the incidence of narco-related violence.

Fifth, LDC graduation will make govt more oriented to people. As a developing country, govt will be committed to ensure accountability, spend a percentage of its GDP in healthcare, education, defense and other sectors like other responsible developing countries.And we will see people-centric development and policy initiatives.

Plethora of arguments put forward to delay LDC graduation based on unsubstantiated fear. I hope this piece will work as a template for the low voice in favor of early graduation that Bangladesh desperately needs. LDC graduation is indeed opening opportunities for Bangladesh as a hidden blessing to address many enduring issues that deeply trouble the country. The UN itself once delayed graduation of Bhutan and this may happen with Bangladesh, a country plagued by corruption and mismanagement. I hope the incumbent and future govt will stay on course for graduation by 2026. Delaying graduation means delaying the opportunities.

[Update: this piece is updated by me on November 14,2025 at 9 PM Bangladesh Standard Time.Update includes reference to UNODC report.]

Monday, November 10, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(08 novembre --- 14 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
08 Pain,Chou,Œuf Butterbon(from market) Riz ,Radis,Petit poisson ---
09 Pain,Chou,Œuf Riz ,Radis,Gourde bouteille,Chou-fleur,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson Riz ,Pianju(depuis marché),Gourde bouteille,Soups aux lentilles --
10 Pain,Chou-fleur Riz,Gourde bouteille,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou-fleur Pois chiches,Puri(depuis marché) ---
11 Pain,Chou Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Petit moglaï parata(depuis marché),Œuf,Radis,Soups aux lentilles --
12 Pain,Chou-fleur,Œuf Riz,Radis,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou-fleur Pois chiches,Pianju(depuis marché) ---
13 Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou fleur,Œuf Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Chou,Baim (Zigzag eel) poisson,Lait --
14 Pain,Chou,Œuf Riz,Baim,Chou Riz,Silver carpe,Shou,Soupe aux lentilles ---

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Tariff Debate Continues

More partners press Dhaka for tariff concession,
Reserve accumulation employed to rescue ally from awkward situation.

Both the European Union and Japan have asked for similar concessions that Bangladesh pledged to give the USA. If [everything] is OK, Bangladesh and the USA are likely to have a deal by December this year. But the USA stressed that Bangladesh would not give similar concession to other countries (for instance, reduced tariff on US originated goods and services and purchase of 25 Boeng aircrafts in next 20 years). Recently, the EU countries held a press conference and emphasized that the EU would expect similar purchase commitment from Bangladesh. Bangladesh is scheduled to be graduated from LDC countries by 2026, which Bangladesh wants to be delayed. Once graduated from the LDC countries ,Bangladesh may lose duty free access to EU countries ,where 49% of its export goes.

Tariff reduction and import from the USA witnessed a revenue shortfall of Tk 88.99 billion against a target of Tk 990.05 billion. It is too early to tell whether tariff debate or moribund business activity hit by tight monetary policy contributed to the decline of tariff shortfall. Because reduced tariff came into effect from early August and we still have three quarters to go. And there will be widespread optimism in the economy if there is a participatory election by February next year.

Tariff commitments to EU and Japan [mean] we have to increase import from the countries. Bangladesh is thinking to sign an FTA with the EU and PTA with the Japan, which even sent a letter to Bangladesh to expedite the negotiation to conclude the deal.

Increasing import from these countries means we have to downsize our import from somewhere else. Currently India and China are the largest sources of import. Both countries account for around $40 billion of import. We mostly import intermediate goods from these countries. From China, we heavily import defense equipments. Since Japan and the EU are unlikely to be major sources of intermediate goods in one decade, the most plausible conclusion is Bangladesh may end up procuring more Western originated defense articles. Bangladesh has special agreement with the Turkey,France,Italy,Japan and the UK.

Since the EU and Japan may not provide the raw materials at competitive price, it is highly likely we may share part of import spending in defense with the two partners to secure the export market there.

Yuan is still cheaper than USD. But whether it [will remain] so in the future is not certain. In October, we saw the USA announced a currency swap line worth $20 billion to rescue the Argentine peso ,halting depletion of forex reserve of the Argentine central bank. The US treasury secretary urged US banks and investment funds to invest more in Argentina. This is the first time,[reserve accumulation] is employed in tariff debate. This time it is used to rescue an ally Argentina to curb influence of China,which has also given a $18 billion currency swap line with the Argentina. Earlier, Argentina had chosen refurbished F-16 over JF-17 and J-10C offered by China for its Air Force. Here security is being projected as public good and currency is used to aid ally through security umbrella. Now think there comes a moment when this same [reserve accumulation] is being used to punish/ stall behavior of a rival. In fact, Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran depicted such scenario in his influential paper on tariff titled "A User's Guide To Restructuring Global Trading System" where the US govt requests the Fed to print $1 trillion in a bid to purchase Yuan so that it appreciates in the international market.(See "Reshaping Global Trading System:What Lies Ahead" published here on April 4,2025)

The step may weaken the US dollar,which the US administration wants in the long run, and hurt communist party related corporations and Chinese billionaires who denominated their assets in USD across the globe. Weakening USD downsizes /shrinks their wealth. Point is [reserve accumulation] may be employed by any big trading partner for harmful purposes,not only for rescuing ally.

Ultimately we are heading towards a clustered trading blocs. Despite risk of import revenue shortfall, import diversification appears to be new reality in this new trading system. Despite challenges, export registered a 2% growth in the first 4 months of this year. If the growth of revenue collection for the remaining period surpasses the shortfall and optimism prevails then there will be good news from this tariff debate. And we have to be cautious about intentional use of major currencies to influence other currencies [through reserve accumulation].

[Update: this piece is updated by me on November 06,2025 at 9:13 AM Bangladesh Standard Time; update includes replacing words like "currency tool", "currency weapon" with "reserve accumulation".]

Monday, November 3, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(01 novembre --- 07 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
01 Pain,Lait poudre Riz ,Radis,Gourde bouteille Riz ,Radis,Gourde bouteille ---
02 Pain,Œuf,Gourde bouteille --- Riz,Pianju(depuis marché),Épinard Singara(depuis marché)
03 Pain,Lait Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Banane,Pois chiches ---
04 Pain,Œuf,Pois chiches Bakerkhani(depuis marché) Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Gourde bouteille,Pomme de terre bhaji ---
05 Pain,Œuf,Pomme de terre Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Gourde bouteille,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles ---
06 Riz,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Gourde bouteille Bakerkhani(depuis marché) Riz,Purée de banane verte,Soupe aux lentilles ---
07 Riz,Banane,Lait Riz,Petit taro chinois,Radis Puri(depuis marché) ---

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Cushioning Fall Of Taka

Allow businesses to transfer money abroad
To keep the incentive spending short.

The uncertain situation about Non Performing Loans casts serious doubt about Taka's stability next year. Exchange rate of Taka against US dollar in this week is Tk 122.46/USD ,which was Tk 121.75/USD a month ago. Though this depreciation is within the tolerable limit and the expected range of Bangladesh Bank,a big fall may cause serious trouble. As I have mentioned several times in this space, Bangladesh can afford depreciation of Taka between 5%(Tk127/USD) and 10%(Tk 133.1) in a year. Transitory effect of depreciation will be manageable and less severe given more forex making entry into the country. Otherwise, it will make lives miserable by pushing up the prices of essential goods and services and accelerating capital flight from the country. A macroeconomic nightmare for any govt.

The chance is high that after the election when many restrictions will be relaxed a fresh round of capital flight may be observed. The volatility of local currency in short span of time increases the risk for fund management of the companies as it shrinks their assets if those are denominated in Taka. Unfortunately, Bangladesh Bank has stricter policy to transfer money abroad through official channels. For this reason, many opt for clandestine means to launder money abroad. If these companies have means to invest their money into foreign resources through legal channel , I think incidence of money laundering could be [curbed] to a great extent. One way is to set a ceiling on investment abroad and provide some quota on foreign investment by a Bangladeshi company. Another approach is to allow investment on commodities, foreign bonds through Bangladesh. Soon commodity exchange market will be operational in Bangladesh. If local companies can invest part of the assets in gold,silver,platinum, copper ,then part of the money they launder abroad will stay at home. Similarly, if we allow them to invest in foreign bonds through local stock exchange or by any other means then that will add great value to their investment. At the same time, purchase of foreign real estate should be legalized inside Bangladesh. The central bank can have a clear tab on investment on such property and repatriation of capital gain from resale of such property. At the moment,Bangladesh Bank remains in the dark about [laundered] money caused by political uncertainty and currency volatility. The measures suggested here will give the central bank some idea how much money will go abroad and how much proceed/ return on investment will come back to home. Most importantly, it will hold back to some extent the capital flight.

Nonchalance stance to take money abroad legally puts pressure on government incentives. When these companies will fall into trouble due to currency volatility ,they usually seek public incentives. In most of the cases govt complies to their demand, costing tax payer's money. Allowing businesses to transfer money abroad for investment purposes legally discards the need for such incentives.

The $800 million Chinese investment pledges,which is likely to happen in next 12/24 months in the textile and RMG sector, is mostly influenced by global tariff debate, China's shrinking opportunity to invest in Occidental countries and not by uncertainty about Taka's value. China has excess capital of more than three trillion dollar. They have a controlled money market and problem-stricken property market, denting in their returns. The Chinese does not spare opportunity to invest this money abroad. This is why they aggressively invest in the RMG sector in this country. The volatility of Taka has little impact [on] their business decision because in any such case they will simply convert it into Yuan and repatriate the money back to China. And the Chinese central bank is willing to lend Bangladesh more Yuan when the Chinese investments will be in trouble in Bangladesh. The point is instability of Taka poses serious threat to future FDI and local investment given Chinese investment is an exception.

To protect domestic companies from currency volatility risks, the central bank should allow them to invest abroad. Or let them purchase foreign assets from Bangladesh. The move is aligned to check public spending and keep the private business balance sheet healthy without the need for govt intervention.

Monday, October 27, 2025

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux



(25 octobre --- 31 octobre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
25 Riz,Lait Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Tengra,Pomme de terre bhaji ---
26 Pain,Œu,Soupe aux lentilles Singara(depuis marché) Riz,Pianju(depuis marché),Tengra,Soupe aux lentilles ---
27 Pain,Soupe aux lentilles, Œuf Butterbon(depuis marché) Riz,Feuilles de gourde bouteille Pois chiches
28 Pain,Lait poudre Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Banane verte,Pois chiches,Pomme de terre --- ---
29 Pain,Lait Singara(depuis marché) Khichuri,Poulet ---
30 Pain,Yaourt Riz,Poulet,Gourde bouteille Petit mughlaï paratha (depuis marché) ---
31 Pain,Lait poudre Riz,Petit taro chinois,Radis Butterbon(depuis marché) Œuf