A Country Built On Fault Lines

A country built on fault line Faces difficulty to shine.

In Bangladesh, we often see upending events cause deep division in the society ,leading on some occasions to polarization. Sometimes unsettled issues on historical events or violence involved in the events are behind such division. Failures to resolve differences through talk and justice create these fault lines. Some are major, some are minor. They are present almost in every sphere of life. Ordinary citizens, society and economy are paying a price for that.

Major years like 1971,1975,1990 and 2024 created some big fault lines. Apart from that one party rule BAKSAL, anti-Maoist campaign, some cultural movements, anti-shrine movement, persecution of minorities, indigenous movement, wage hike movement in industrial pockets and other movements also gave birth to several fault lines.

Driving a wedge between two opposing groups leads often to point of no return and brings destruction and loss to a country. Others exploit the crack of division and made it unbridgeable.

Yuri Bezmenov was a soviet journalist and diplomat. He defected to the West in 1970 and disclosed the psychological warfare model,which he had learned during his stint into his country's intelligence agency, used by the Soviets during the cold war to instill a new ideology into a society uprooting the prevailing ones. He publicly spilled the beans to Edward Griffin, an American journalist in the US,in 1984(see Yuri Bezmenov. Link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Bezmenov and the interview , link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2b-I0Yqisc ). YouTube video is still available. I do not subscribe all his explanations and views about the 1971 and 1975. The timing of his defection and that of his interview depicts a different time. Lots of things were happening at home and abroad back then.The interview in particular is used to tell a particular narrative, to convince a particular audience. By the time the interview was aired, his subversion model had already been known to the world. Moreover, I find it a bit oversimplified and exaggerated. It is not that easy to fool a whole country. But there are some facts in that interview and you just cannot throw away the subversion model he exposed. So what is this subversion model he was talking about?

It comprises of 4 stages(for more read "4 Stages of Ideological Subversion According To Yuri Bezmenov", Nitigya Pant,February 24,2024. Link: https://medium.com/@nitigyaraj/4-stages-of-ideological-subversion-according-to-yuri-bezmenov-psychological-warfare-in-action-4ea01e2268c7 , and "Bezmenov's Steps(Ideological Subversion)", Porlando,July 14,2020. www.unintendedconsequences.es. Link: https://unintendedconsequenc.es/bezmenovs-steps/ ): Demoralization, Destabilization, Crisis and Normalization.

Demoralization takes 15-20 years to complete and in this phase society's core values,beliefs ,traditions and identity are questioned in a bid to disorient the population. Methods employed include politicization and monetization of creed,monopolization of media,controlling flow of information,discrediting others, educate generation to accept things without challenging, glorifying the ideology comparing it with others,antagonism among political parties,less spontaneous response from individuals to address social issues etc.

Destabilization takes another 2-5 years to complete and in this phase subvert ideology is projected to be an alternative. Methods employed include diminishing bargaining process in the economy, unreasonable power struggle,populism in politics,mobs reigning laws and society,growing isolation in foreign relations. Solution is "grass is greener on the other side" or other ideology is better.

Crisis phase lasts 6 months. In this phase people lost their trust on existing institutions and discard them. They are ready to embrace radical change,including welcoming ideology they were taught to despise.

Normalization describes the phase when subverted ideology becomes the ideology of the ruling regime. Military takeover is also a feature of normalization.

In general, the whole subversion process takes 20 to 23 years to complete. But there is no specific timeframe. But I find it a bit hilarious because it is almost part of a political thriller's manuscript and it considers a whole nation as cattle stock. There are many competing interest groups within a nation and it is not easy to fool them.

Now coming back to Bezmenov's subversion technique. If we consider it in the context of Bangladesh, then we can see two major ideological shifts took place in Bangladesh: one in 1975 and another in 2009. Ideology dominating post-75 finally gave in in 2009. The demoralization phase lasted till 2006. Destabilization and crisis phase lasted till 2008. And in 2009 the so called normalization came.Then another demoralization phase started. Another ideological shift took place in 2024.(for more read "Bezmenov's Leak Still Relevant: From Awami Policing To Moral Policing", Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,September 11,2024, https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/09/bezmenovs-leak-still-relevant-from.html?m=1).

Two years have passed since the July uprising. Justice has yet to be delivered to the victims of that uprising. And victims include victims of both the feuding parties. Chaotic atmosphere still prevails. Any kind of narrative building approach to dominate others only widens the crack. Accommodating all the views including the vanquished ones,like in a democracy, can lead to reconciliation. Resolving differences and bridging the gaps are keys to prosperity and stability.

It Is Indeed Good For Us

Delaying graduation clips the wings, Delaying opportunities as popular mood swings.

Bangladesh's plan to become graduate from Least Developing Countries(LDC) faces stiff resistance from various quarters. In 2026, Bangladesh is scheduled to get out from LDC countries, discarding the privileges it is enjoying all these years. Bangladesh is supposed to be a developing country by 2020. However,COVID-19 obstructed the graduation. Now many business platforms and other organizations suggest the govt to delay the graduation for another 3/5 years. Removal of duty-free access,higher cost of private loan, Intellectual Property Related(IPR) restrictions are identified as reasons behind such proposition.

Govt earlier decided to make appeal against graduation, but later dropped the idea in favor [of] smooth graduation. I personally think smooth graduation will be best possible alternative instead of delay. This is not the first time we are encountering a situation like this.The closure of Multi Fiber Arrangement back in 2005 cast similar shadow over our RMG export and economy. The MFA allowed Bangladesh to source raw-materials from various countries and export the ready-made garments to the West, which also gave Bangladesh quota on RMG export. The facility was a relaxation on value addition clause and ensured some set market access for Bangladesh. Many argued that post-MFA and Quota period [would] be a doomsday scenario for Bangladesh garments. Fortunately, Bangladesh proved them wrong, increasing volume of export from mere $5 billion to more than $40 billion now. And Bangladesh also increased its value addition in the RMG sector. It also witnessed unprecedented amount of investment in backward and forward linkage industry.

By the same token, I am convinced, post-LDC graduation will be a path strewn with overcoming challenges,bringing the changes needed for a developing country and endless opportunities against the overblown challenges.

First, disappearance of duty-free access is an ungrounded fear. The moment I am writing this ,Japan has already given Bangladesh duty-free access for 3 more years after LDC graduation in 2026. Tariff debate has led to bilateral trade agreements that witness many countries enjoying favorable access to developed countries. FTAs,PTAs turn out to be deciding factors here. Despite being an LDC country,Bangladesh may lose big if its rivals get FTA advantage to key export destinations. Solution is to become a developing country and ink more FTAs.

Second, duty-free access to developed countries also accompanied with money laundering activities through faulty ,and willful, trade invoices. Even official export figure encountered $10 billion mismatch in 2024, an embarrassment to the govt. Removal of duty-free access will curb the incidence of money laundering and provide opportunities for more able exporters,showing the wrongdoers the exit door. Small and medium factories will become subcontractors of big exporters. Voilà, this withdrawal of duty-free access is not an issue.

Third, no more soft credit is also a boon for Bangladesh. As I shared this perception before, higher interest rate works as screen to thwart any attempt to take unnecessary loans. Bangladeshis in general are paying the price for this unaccountable development works at the cost of their money with the support of soft credit. So there will be less unreasonable development works with the evaporation of soft credit. Private sector that depends on overseas credit market will come to stock market for financing, developing the local bond market and ensuring more accountability and transparency.

Fourth, intellectual property right hurdles will pave the path for domestic investment on local solutions for addressing the issue. One argument I hear is that medicines will be costly as the ingredients will be costly (they will no longer be free). Govt recently lowered duty on cancer-related drugs. Govt can do so for essential drugs on serious diseases. I think once this advantage is over,we will see shutting down of many small pharmaceutical companies. Many of them have capacity to produce base ingredients for medicines of silly diseases and often they are being used as precursor to make narcotics in the neighboring countries. UNODC already highlighted the issue in its report(see "UNODC Report & Meth Market Of Bangladesh" published here on July 25,2019). LDC graduation is a hidden blessing for Bangladesh in combatting the narco. It will significantly lower the incidence of narco activities and curbing the volume of narco trade and thereby lowering the incidence of narco-related violence.

Fifth, LDC graduation will make govt more oriented to people. As a developing country, govt will be committed to ensure accountability, spend a percentage of its GDP in healthcare, education, defense and other sectors like other responsible developing countries.And we will see people-centric development and policy initiatives.

Plethora of arguments put forward to delay LDC graduation based on unsubstantiated fear. I hope this piece will work as a template for the low voice in favor of early graduation that Bangladesh desperately needs. LDC graduation is indeed opening opportunities for Bangladesh as a hidden blessing to address many enduring issues that deeply trouble the country. The UN itself once delayed graduation of Bhutan and this may happen with Bangladesh, a country plagued by corruption and mismanagement. I hope the incumbent and future govt will stay on course for graduation by 2026. Delaying graduation means delaying the opportunities.

[Update: this piece is updated by me on November 14,2025 at 9 PM Bangladesh Standard Time.Update includes reference to UNODC report.]

Reshaping Global Trading System: What Lies Ahead

Trade restructuring starts with tariff debate, Leading to multiple systems as global trade's fate.

The Trump administration imposed 37% reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi exports to the USA. The imposed tariffs are much higher than its rivals to the US market. The disruptive action is not a deliberate but well planned move to reorder the global trading system. In 2024, the USA incurred a budget deficit of $1.83 trillion. In addition, the US gross debt to GDP reached 120%. And that is not all. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017 allows US citizens to enjoy reduced income tax rates till 2026. The Act also reduced corporate tax rate to 21.2%. Economist Stephen Miran, who is also the current chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, argues in his "A User's Guide To Restructuring The Global Trading System" ( a policy paper published by Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024) to continue tax rebate beyond 2026 the US economy requires $5 trillion every year. Deficits plus the extra money to sustain the policies means the money has to come from somewhere else. And the solution is to tariff the other countries. This,he thinks,is one of the tools to reshape the global trading order.

We can clearly see here the US runs huge budget deficits, yet USD remains overvalued decades after decades. Because the US dollar is beings used as reserve currency/asset in many other countries. Any devaluation of the US currency would result in loss of reserve asset in other countries.

But to make America great again, to bring back the manufacturing plants from other parts of the world to the USA and to make American goods more competitive ,you need to do something. At the heart of US - China trade dispute during Trump's first presidency is the undervalued Yuan. Appreciation of the Yuan will take away the competitive advantage of many manufacturing items and help relocating their plants in other parts of the world including the USA. Over the years, this perception of undervalued currency extended to currencies of other countries. Added to that the idea of America is forced to overvalue its currency to maintain ongoing order. So Miran came up with some tools in his paper,which he would like to describe as an essay to comprehend their consequences, to fix the issue and thereby help the Trump administration achieving "Make America Great Again". The other tool is the currency, which will be touched a little later.

The tariff drives up the domestic price of the tariffed good,a general perception. Miran argues it will not happen if the tariffed /exporting country depreciates its currency to the full magnitude of the tariff. That means if Bangladesh depreciates its currency by 37% then prices of its exportable items will not rise in the US market. Tariff is not inflationary in this case. And forex reserve will continue to grow for Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bank with its foreign currency will buy treasury assets. And individuals holding foreign currency will buy foreign goods. Think of China that has a closed capital market. The Chinese govt restricts investment abroad. So holders of foreign currency are forced to invest in less productive and risky domestic assets like real estate that accumulated huge bad debt. Miran argues continuing currency devaluation under capital controls will not sustain amid high tariffs. So there will be great capital flight from China. And it will force the Chinese central bank to raise interest rate , leading to appreciation of Chinese currency. The plus side of tariff war is that the US govt will get revenue without incurring the inflation. However, the US may lose revenue if the partner country does not depreciate the currency and an ensuing inflation may be expected.

The currency tool has two approaches: the multilateral approach and the unilateral approach. In the multilateral approach, the US sits with major trading partners and convince them to appreciate/strengthen their currencies and to depreciate/weaken the USD. This starts to happen when they start to sell USD from their forex reserve. The US starts to buy those dollars and issues new treasury security with duration of 100 years. In addition, the US sells those bonds to friendly countries who need security assistance in troubled waters and territories. By the way, the century bonds will replace the short and medium term bonds,easing the burden of the Fed to make huge interest payments and improving the budget deficits. Here the US projects the global security assistance as public good. And buying the century bond ,you are actually paying for that public good. In addition, holders of the century bond will enjoy favorable tariffs in the US market while the hostile partner will face a different kind of tariff. This multilateral currency approach has a precedent. In 1985, the US,France,UK,Germany and Japan met at the Plaza hotel and agreed to devalue the USD.

The unilateral approach reveals the leverages the US has to reshape the global trading system.It emerges when multilateral approach fails(many countries do not give consent to devalue dollar). One of the leverages is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act 1977 that allows the US president to halt and limit transfers of credit, payments or securities internationally. The US could hold part of the interest payments on treasury security in a bid to make USD unattractive for using it as reserve currency. This will lead countries to lower the size of their USD holdings, creating a depreciation pressure on USD.

Another leverage is the reserve accumulation,which means the US will buy other currencies in a bid to increase the demand of other currencies provided that the Fed prints and supplies the much needed USD.

So far the USA employed the tariff tool. The currency tool has not yet been applied yet. Stephen Miran's work is the guiding principle of Trump's fiscal policy. There is some kind of thinking behind this latest policy action.

Here are my observations:

1. The tariff tool tends to worsen the inflationary pressure in the partner country. The pass through effect(37%) of depreciation may become unmanageable. I hope the US and Bangladesh starts negotiating tariff terms soon and bring about a solution.
2. What about the European countries? They have a common currency. Yet they face different tariffs. How do they depreciate the Euro? Will the members agree and allow the European central bank to depreciate the Euro?
3. The formula used to calculate the tariffs does not take into account tariffs paid by the member countries. The formula ,which is criticized right and left ,is:

   Change in tariffs= (US exports to partner - US imports from partner) ÷ (Price elasticities of import demand × Import price elasticities with respect to tariffs × US imports from partner)

   According to Pew research center, Bangladesh paid 15.2% tariffs on its exports to the US in 2024, much higher than what the other countries in the South and South-East Asia paid(see "Bangladeshi Exporters Pay Highest Tariff In US Market", Textile Today,April 23,2018). It has been doing so more than a decade. This means Bangladesh pays more money to US govt than its rivals in exports. Yet this acknowledgment is not reflected in reciprocal tariffs. If the trade deficit is adjusted for the revenue paid by the partner country, the reciprocal tariffs become much lower. In 2024, Bangladesh exported $8 billion to the USA and imported $2 billion worth of goods and paid $1.216 billion as tariffs(15.2% of $8 billion export). Taking into account the tariffs already paid, the adjusted trade deficit becomes $4.784 billion and and the resulting reciprocal tariff is around 29%.
4. The reciprocal tariff formula used, it appears,tries to capture overvaluation/undervaluation of a partner currency through the trade surplus/ deficit. If partner country's currency is undervalued ,the trade deficit will be larger,so will be the reciprocal tariff. So a political consideration is being played out in this formulation of tariff. It is all about to redesign the trade rules,keeping certain countries out of the global trading system.
5. If currency tools come into effect, then Bangladesh may incur loss in forex reserve. To mitigate the loss, Bangladesh should immediately convert part of its forex reserve into gold. Say USD depreciates by 20% ,then we should buy gold with the 20% of forex reserve.
6. Following the Plaza Accord, the Yen appreciated and the Japan went into recession. If the Euro zone and the Japan go into recession again, our export will dip and we will face serious macroeconomic instability.
7. Threat perceptions and security concerns are different for different countries. Territorial encroachment appears to be bigger threat. In that light,former foe may become ally to defend my territory. This is particularly true for Europe. China has vast frontiers with the Russia. In case of any aggression to Europe, it can mobilize troops along the Russian border and defuse tensions between Russia and Europe. In that light the Chinese security assistance is more plausible for the Europe than the one provided by the USA. Intertwining trade and security concerns does not address the issue.
8. If trade and security concerns are intertwined, there will be many new trading systems, not just one. These regional blocs then draft rules to do trade among the blocs,abolishing the WTO or reinventing its roles in the world of multiple providers of global security.

Stephen Miran's work lays out the blueprint for the new trading system and subsequent action of Trump tells that the recent move is a political one. Trump administration wants renegotiation of trading terms among the partner countries. He wants to weaken the dollar, keep the tax rate low for the Americans, relocation of manufacturing plants of high-end products like semiconductor, automobiles in the USA , so that the US narrow down the trade deficits and remain a formidable power. I hope this tariff war will not last long, because impoverished world is not the result we want to see here. Bangladesh should brace itself for a world with multiple trading systems. For the moment, Bangladesh should also prepare itself for worst case scenario: the reciprocal tariffs stay for indefinite period. Many try to argue that our rivals will take advantage from the heightened tariffs. Harmonized system code for our export items will get us find our true rivals.Cambodia, Vietnam ,China and Pakistan appear to be our rivals in exports. Even if India manages some advantages from the ensuing tariffs,Bangladesh can offset the advantage by depreciating its currency. A 10% depreciation of Taka( difference between the tariffs faced by Bangladesh and India in the US) will bring the trade favor on our side. Our economy can sustain the effect of 10% depreciation of Taka at this moment or near future. One thing emerges clear as the sun is that Taka has to be depreciated in future.

Impact Of Fed's Policy Rate Cut At Home

More foreign credit amid Fed's policy rate cut Rejuvenates the economy burying the but.

The Federal Reserve has lowered the funds rate by 50 basis points, making it 4.83%. Back in July, China lowered the policy rate by 10 basis points, from 3.45% to 3.35%. This time the Chinese central bank decides to keep the policy rate same. It is indeed a good news for Bangladesh and its economic recovery. It means foreign goods will be cheaper; in particular, import of food grains in the wake of devastating flash flood will be less costlier. Consumer spending in the West will rise due to low cost of borrowing,resulting in more procurement of Bangladeshi RMG.

It is conducive to bring down the price levels. Both non-food and food items may result in lower prices. There is no restriction from Bangladesh Bank on LCs to import food and other necessary items. Moreover, duties on several items are also lowered. As Bangladesh Bank is pursuing a contractionary monetary policy, downward pressure on prices of non essential non-food items may be observed soon. In addition, constant rise in remittances and foreign credit is growing the forex reserve and making taka stable. So any pressure on inflation from further depreciation is not visible at the moment.

Moreover, police resuming their role and magistracy power given to the Army for the next 60 days are likely to improve the law & order situation by disrupting the extensive extortion network in the kitchen market. Inflationary situation is bound to improve in the next few months.

Back in June 11, I depicted a scenario for the private sector credit in the piece "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War III".Sharing parts of it:

Fed funds rate: Less than 5.33%
Chinese loan prime rate: Less than 3.45%
This is an ideal situation for economic recovery. Inflationary pressure will be less. Policy rate hike does not need to be prolonged. Economic recovery will be earlier than any other scenarios. Both the Western and Chinese credit will be available. Western consumption will increase,boosting Bangladeshi export. FDIs will rise.

When the piece was written it was assumed that private sector credit would be more than Taka 1517.21 billion. $ 250 million of World Bank's $1 billion credit will go for the SME sector. In addition, the US assistance of $250 million will also go for the private sector. So we are seeing more than Taka 500 billion coming to private sector this year. Moreover, government also lowers borrowing from the banks, making available further bank funds for the private sector. Recently, after more than 7 years ,publicity of consumer credits is appearing on the dailies. Brands are running special ads of their new products. Business sector confidence is back. It is indicating rejuvenation of the economy.

Both domestic and external factors are in favor of fast economic recovery. However, thwarting political uncertainty and maintaining a trouble free supply chain ensures better consumer activity.

References:

1. "Fed Slashes Interest Rates By Half Point, An Aggressive Start To Its First Easing Campaign In Four Years",Jeff Cox,CNBC,September 18,2024. Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-cuts-rates-september-2024-.html
2. "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War III",Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com, June 11,2024. Link: https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/06/macroeconomy-amid-trade-war-iii.html?m=1

Bangladesh Banks On Prof Yunus To Bail Out The Country

Sheikh Hasina fled the country while economy in tatters, Prof Yunus heads the government as budget deficit matters.

Having been without any government for more than 72 hours, Bangladesh finally got one. It is headed by Professor Yunus, poster boy of Bangladesh's success story. The dramatic fall of Sheikh Hasina regime and the ensuing lawlessness troubled the people a lot. Widespread looting,vandalism and attacks on police stations and property,vendetta are signs that vandals are pretty much in charge and the Army loosened its grip though lifted the curfew. While the police abandoned the stations, it could easily fill the void with the assistance of Ansars and magistrates. So the Army administration cannot avoid the responsibility of the mayhem caused between August 05 and August 08,which witnessed murder of police personnel and destroying police stations with arson attack. The police stations stored valuable documents. Weapons were looted and destroyed in fire. Most of these retributive incidents occurred while the Army was in charge of the country.

The violence even compelled the interim govt chief to call for calm and put an end to violence in his first public appearance at home. Despite the perception of Professor Yunus as head of interim govt to steer the next election, I think it is a desperate measure to pop up the economy which is in dire straits. Sheikh Hasina's failed China trip did not manage adequate budget support commitment. A Bengali daily reported that Awami regime borrowed Taka 15 trillion and laundered $149.20 billion in 15 years. Meanwhile, budget deficits keep growing and our foreign debt becomes $79 billion this year(Source:"Awami Govt Borrowed More Than Taka 1.5 Million Crore In 15 Years",Daily Bonik Barta,August 07,2024). The so called clerical mistake of $10 billion in export earnings and serious corruption charges of civil and military bureaucrats facilitated the departure of Awami regime. The calculated and cold blooded killing of students and innocents during the student movement worked as triggering event to dethrone Sheikh Hasina. Students genuinely involved in this movement spontaneously,seeing so many fellow students' death,torture and finding a platform to finally express themselves. So the current state of the country is the result of their hard work,no offence to that. But without knowingly, they are being used in an engineered crisis. UN probe on the triggering event, mass killing of the students, will reveal many unanswered questions, I hope and believe. They have paid a heavy price and they deserve their own platforms so that people have more choices/options in politics. It will also be a blunt reply to those who used them as cannon fodder to oust Sheikh Hasina.

Now the economy is in tatters. This ongoing crisis shuts down the economy and saves public money. Shut down of rail network and metro systems saves subsidy money. This is true for many other sectors. Schools and colleges are also closed. If this crisis is not engineered, then the establishment has to reveal the ugly truth: it does not have enough resources to run the country. Having admitted that it doctored economic data, the Awami regime lost the moral high ground to run the country. I still believe Sheikh Hasina is in Bangladesh,maybe at the hands of the Army, because no visual of her in India is presented before the media. So the whole Sri Lanka like drama is staged to save the economy. Bring a fresh new govt , send a positive signal to the economy and investors. And an internationally known figure like Professor Yunus will help fetching foreign budget support. But I think it will not be that easy. Currency is in free fall. Bangladesh Bank restricts withdrawal of money from individual account to Taka 100,000. In addition, it tightens rules on reporting by banks on financial transactions of politicians. Despite the inflationary ease, liquidity crisis persists in banks. People prefer to hold more cash in hands sensing no sign of improvement in political impasse and inflation. Luckily, interim govt will have some funds at their disposal: funds released from unnecessary subsidies( cash transfer,export assistance etc) and social security programs. Moreover, development spending of a political government is also saved in this circumstances. So this saved money will improve the budget deficits to some extent. Investors' confidence will be back when the government will unveil its reform programs if there is any. Such programs will give them an idea of future policy changes in Bangladesh. First task of the interim govt is to restore law and order. A demoralized police force may not be handy in this time. Widespread use of paramilitary forces like Ansar in aid to police officers and magistrates to maintain law and order may give a sigh of relief. At the same time, setting up open detention centers like El Salvador across the country to detain the rioters,plunderers who live freely in the society will render them useless during electoral campaign, paving the path for a peaceful election. In addition, it will help reigning in inflation by incapacitating few sources of extortion. Ensuring safety of all including the ones of former ruling party will create conducive atmosphere of participatory election where all major political stakeholders will participate. When objectives of the interim govt are clear to everyone, confidence of all including the investors will be restored. The sheer scale of laundered money says how some quarters at home and abroad use Bangladesh as "treatment plant" to launder money abroad. These quarters have penetrated deep into the establishment. So it is not a political problem, rather a structural one. To address structural issues, we need accountability, commitment and policy formulation. Given the transnational nature of money laundering, interim govt could facilitate deal with other countries to disclose information about stolen money and repatriation of the culprit.

Non performing loans may not increase, but recovery of NPL may stall as many borrowers go for hiding in the wake of new change in power. Boasting image of Professor Yunus to get budget support from abroad and regaining investor's confidence may not work well if interim govt cannot operate freely. Fall of Awami regime has sent a positive signal to the economy, but any attempt of resting gun on Prof Yunus' shoulder to aim at another goal will jeopardize the optimistic mood.

Climate Commitment Or Enhancing Corruption?

Climate fund into corrupt hand May open the alley for corruption grand.

Last week French ambassador to climate change met with Bangladeshi Foreign Minister and reiterated to provide €1 billion as part of climate change support. Earlier, French president Emmanuel Macron on his visit to Bangladesh announced to provide €1 billion to address climate challenges. The decision came at a moment when governance situation deteriorated and corruption worsened. Transparency International downgraded Bangladesh by 2 places and ranked it 10th most corrupt country in its latest corruption perception index.

Back in November 08,2021,I penned a piece titled "Commitment Or New Alley Of Corruption?". Sharing it again:

As countries and various parties in Glasgow are at loggerhead to confine the rate of annual temperature rise to 1.5° celcius by the end of this century,there has been little sign of optimism that they will be able to do that. In the mean time, Bangladesh has chalked out a plan (Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC) to reduce carbon emission by 22% by 2030,higher than 7% of the goal set by Bangladesh back in 2015. The plan,submitted to United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change,envisages that Bangladesh will finance reduction of 6.73% carbon emission while the donors will finance the rest of its reduction commitment. Bangladesh requires $176 billion in this regard.^{1 & 2}

The commitment demonstrates Bangladesh’s eagerness in reducing carbon emission. However, Bangladesh’s past record in managing climate fund is not clean.Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) last year in a study found that 54% of the climate mitigation funds allotted to 7 projects were swindled and one of the culprit was secretary to a minister.³In addition, TIB in another study found 14% to 76% corruption in 4 climate change projects,with a budget of Tk 1,102 crores where Tk 191 crores were swindled.⁴

The outcome of foreign funded projects never ended with a happy note. Look at the status of Election Commission,Police and CHT region.UNDP led initiatives to reform electoral process of Bangladesh, modernization of Police and development of Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) brought only embarrassment to the stakeholders.UKAID and other donors mobilized resources so that the projects would meet the desired ends.The outcomes turned out to be costly for the nation. A controversial election was staged in 2018,Tk 4000 crores were misappropriated by a powerful state organ that contributes to UN peace mission in the name of introducing Electronic Voting Machine(EVM), a special hearing on human rights abuse by Police was held in Switzerland by an UN agency and an eruption of gun violence in CHT claiming lives of many indigenous leaders. This has been common trend of project financed by donors in Bangladesh.

And Bangladesh is replete with examples how such projects backfired. World Bank funded local governments like City Corporations ( Pourasava) and Zila Parishads through Bangladesh Municipal Development Fund(BMDF) so that they could become independent financially and accountable to local people. After a decade,it stopped funding in the project as hardly any of them showed any positive impact.⁵ Cox's Bazaar which could be the richest City Corporation of Bangladesh even sought Tk 26 crores to BMDF. Now look at the kind of people chaired these institutions. Borishal City Mayor and his disciples vandalized the city over a row with a bureaucrat. Secretary to Cumilla City Corporation was identified in taking part in vandalism during the Durgapuja. Disciples of Cox's Bazaar City mayor cut the city for 5-long hours from rest of Bangladesh and littered the streets with garbage after murder cases had been filed against him.

What is worrying illicit financial flow has also become a problem for the country. The figure continues to rise. Many donor countries often appointed their former ambassadors to Bangladesh to the Caribbean countries, offshore heaven of the world,and seldom integrated them back to the Foreign Ministry. An indication of how they perceive Bangladesh. Last year,British govt even dissolved UKAid and merged it with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.⁶

Many argue that incidence of poverty increased in spite of the various safety net programs taken in the last couple of years.COVID-19 deteriorated the situation.That means over the years through various poverty alleviation measures,except micro credit, we failed to create a sustainable system of poverty alleviation. Micro credit institutions play crucial role to meet the working capital need of micro and small entrepreneurs. But resource mobilization and policy formulation are tasks of policy planners. And we see wrong policy and corruption often deprived the target population and derailed us from reaching the destination.

To me, fight against global warming is an individual one rather than a state-backed one.Individual can reduce carbon emission through his consumption and the way he or she lives the life. Eating less meat,consuming staple that requires less methane in the cultivation process, less dependence on fossil fuel,avoiding air-conditioned environment etc significantly improve one’s carbon emission footprint. The more conscious a nation is, the better will be its carbon footprint.Involving a corrupt state where there is lack of accountability into negotiations with perpetrators of worsening global warming is more like to play the role of a complice in a crime. Many govts may finance the pledges. But the corrupt institutions and agencies, often trained by these countries, did little to stop corruption in the disbursement and implementation of such funds. And through clandestine channels some of the misappropriated money ended up in foreign overseas banks. While one points to donors’ failure to attain the goals, they will simply shrug their responsibilities,telling the sum they paid over the years. Victim country will be double loser even if this is a simple grant because cost of $1 illicit outflow is more than receiving $1 legally. It is simply because one has to pay more taka to purchase $1 unofficially in a bid to launder it abroad. Victim country is the net loser in the sense it will face all the impacts of climate change and it cannot blame the perpetrators for not playing their roles. Even worst is that stolen money ends up in political campaign of powerful countries,dragging victim country into unwanted debate. The likelihood of which is higher than ever before.

Hydrocarbon business is booming. There is no short of investment. I am not against hydrocarbon business. Bangladesh is one of the countries that benefit a lot from this business as millions of its workers work in the Middle Eastern countries. But many find it hypocratic to call others to reduce carbon emission while engaging in activities that only increase the temperature. Without any course correction, insisting others for commitment only creates suspicion and distrust.

Notes And References

1. “Bangladesh Pitches For Climate Sensitive Growth”,Kamran Reza Chowdhury,https://thethirdpole.net,October 25,2021 Link here
2. “Bangladesher Ucchovilashi Lokkho,Purone Chai 15 Lakh Koti Taka(‘Ambitious Goal’ of Bangladesh,Tk 15 Lakh Crores Required)”,Iftekhar Mahmud, Daily Prothom Alo,November 02,2021.
3. “TIB :Over 50% Climate Mitigation Funds Lost To Corruption, Mismanagement ”,Mehedi Al Amin,Dhaka Tribune,November 05,2020 Link here
4. “TIB Study : 14% to 76% Corruption Found In Climate Change Projects”,Sohel All Mamun,Dhaka Tribune, December 24,2021Link here
5. “Bishwabanker Rin Bondho,Sonkote Mayorra(World Bank Loan Stops,Mayors Are In Crisis) ”,Arifur Rahman,Daily Prothom Alo,August 11,2021 Link here
6. Department For International Development Link here

Recipe To Become Filthy Rich In Bangladesh

Grab,swallow everything in your reach, Just to join club of the filthy rich.

[Back in 2019,later updated in 2020, I wrote this piece on the means frequently employed here to become filthy rich.Much water has flown down the Buriganga since then. And new means were used. So I updated the piece and reproduced here.]

It appears that we have turned Bangladesh into a hermetic kingdom where we introduced rules and practices that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. Traffic lights are a pertinent example where you see vehicles crossing key roundabout while the “red” is on, pressing the need of traffic police at every traffic lights to force every vehicle to obey the rules. By the same token, Bangladesh has devised some unique ways for individuals who aspire to become filthy rich in a densely populated country where residual ash from an earthen stove and cowdung are sold and generate profit.

Below are some of the techniques frequently used by the successful summiteers and the nouveau riche:

Recipe#1: subscribe to a political party (cadre based ones are even better), look for empty govt lands, set up a slum and collect monthly rents. Perks include regular payments, surpass the total monthly rents, paid by drug sellers. Bata with its more than 1000 sales centers across Bangladesh made a profit of around Tk 50 crore last year. One single slum could make that money in one month!

Recipe#2 : subscribe to any political party (cadre based ones are even better), take huge amount of loan from banks using your political status, forget to pay them, spend some to raise media outlet or to donate cultural events or religious charities, grab abandoned industrial plot, become willful defaulter and take more loans.

Recipe#3: befriend a politician, civilian and military bureaucrat, get some permit/ license of lucrative business, boast your friendship with powerful elite, police and military in social events and social media to convince people you have high connections, exploit this link to squeeze benefits from business deals and transaction, put up a barrier to entry to your competitors, sponsor political and armed forces run events,launder your wealth abroad so that in adverse time or in any change of power your wealth and business remains untouched and be loyal and faithful to your connections.

Recipe #4: subscribe to any political party (cadre based ones are even better), set up illegal bazars on roadside, collect rents from them, in addition also collect protection money and utility bills, form an association of businessmen, become its member or president, hire some actors to behave like transgender, force them to do begging at key roundabouts, get a trade license and set up a business to whiten your extortion money.

Recipe#5: get membership of various wings of political parties (cadre based ones are even better), start doing export-import business, look for cash incentives / funds available for entrepreneurs/ exporters, swindle those funds, prepare some fake documents to misappropriate cash incentives, bring some money through your fake export partner to convince people you are really doing some export business, start producing cinemas (biopics or folklore stories are good choices to start with), spend some for generating PR about your film(tell the press a swollen figure), declare that your film made an astronomical sum of profit in the box office, and whiten part of the swindled money.

Recipe#6: get membership of any political party (cadre based ones are even better), erect a party office in local bazar, start collecting regular money from the vehicles at bus stand or tempo stand, grab some government property or land belongs to vulnerable people, construct a market complex on that land, bribe city planning officials and exceed floor limits, set up a garments factory, pay irregularly to your staff, switch side if there is a change in government, set your factory on fire and claim insurance from the companies, shut down indefinitely your company if there is unrest , fire the agitating workers, recruit fresh workforce,put blame on rivals or conspirators, ask for loan from banks to recuperate from industrial disaster and read biography of Sohel Rana, owner of Rana Plaza.

Recipe#7: set up a multi-level firm under disguise of cooperative or youth financing institution, collect deposits from members promising your company have lucrative businesses abroad, give some of the members regular monthly payments dubbing them "profit" so that they could bring new members, buy a piece of land in a remote part of the country and plant trees telling the members their money is in good use, set up super market and force members to buy goods from those supermarkets, launch a media house, try to run for MP election or finance electoral campaign of a party, buy citizenship of a foreign country, dissolve your MLM company one fine morning and melt into abroad.

Recipe#8: get enlisted with any ministry or government organization as constructor/vendor, set up a construction company, take part in bidding process of government projects, bribe politicians or ministry officials involved with the projects, influence them to prolong the duration, build the infrastructure with substandard materials so that it lasts only one monsoon or quarter of its lifetime, sponsor foreign trip of project officials or investigator probing development and quality of a project, submit forged documents and siphon off project money prior to its completion, project procurement cost couple of times higher than usual by manipulating input price in connivance with input seller, donate generously to religious charities and cultural events, visit regularly posh bars scattered across bureaucratic area and political hotspots where leaders and bureaucrats of all hues throng to have a peg and discuss potential projects and course of future politics, try to be in good book of social elites and law enforcement officials and intimidate your rivals with the aid of hooligans supplied by your political backers.

Recipe#9: be close with agencies that operate eavesdropping devices, use this relationship to spy on your rival in business and politics, sponsor personal events /trip of your "man/men" in armed forces or law enforcement agencies, make some of them your shadow partner via their relatives, buy commercial plot at crucial area where everyone else is leaving because of receding business, be part of a social movement so that you radiate an aura of changemaker, launch media outlet and pay the journalists lavishly, milk promising men-in-fatigue and law enforcement officials who will adorn key positions in future so that they cannot put obstacles in your future business ventures or political ambition, aim the mega projects or projects being financed by export credit, and make good use of your deep state connections by trying to be political party's accountant for bagging commission of projects financed by export credits.

Recipe#10: get membership of a political party (cadre based ones are even better), set up a philanthropic institution / orphanage/ seminary/charity, try to get foreign funds for your charity, reach out to foreign donors, convince them and fetch as much money as possible, start building some sort of infrastructure for your charity, aim wealthy retired foreign couples who have little knowledge on your country and countrymen, send pictures of some apartment building under construction and present it as your future charity house, do not send pictures of Sangsad Bhavan or Supreme Court as your charity house because these sites are well known in the cyber world, take some pictures at an orphanage, convince your would be donors that you really take care of these poor souls, be part of some cultural movement, pay visit to the place the cultural movement originated or the artist or the legend was born, set an organization named after that movement or legend, try to find out some foreign donors who are kindred spirits, squeeze as much fund as possible from these donors, do not provide your original address, invite them to visit Bangladesh to see the progress of projects they funded, show them some hoax sites or take them to the neighboring country and introduce them to some paid guys who will convince them that you are really a philanthropist and cultural connoisseur, get some paid awards from some hoax organization ( foreign ones will add more value),publicize your charity work and cultural programs in social media and little known news sites, and go for hiding for few months if you get caught in fraudulent activities and make sure you have good connections in ministry of foreign affairs because cheated foreign donors may approach foreign ministry to lodge complaints against you.

Recipe#11: get close to ruling party, grab license for a new bank, make every family member of your family director of the new bank, take loan from other bank to invest in the new bank, manage accounts or funds of public organizations, take loans from other banks using your bank director credential, launder the money abroad and become willful defaulter.

Recipe#12: start an online MLM company in disguise of e commerce/ online shopping company, offer 100% cash back on purchase, retain the cash back in client’s account in the company, force the client to buy another product with some part of the cash back, delay the delivery of the product, put the blame on the limited stock of the good, invest the money collected from client in forex/ commodity exchange market or in any clandestine business, lure owner of black money to invest /to make transaction in your company to send part of the money abroad, use the swollen balance sheet to attract foreign investors, pay astronomical sum of money to procure foreign software in a bid to launder money, draw government’s attention to get digital innovation fund.

Recipe#13: try to buy land forcefully near the location of any upcoming development project/university/public infrastructure using your political/law-enforcement credentials. Raise the prices of the land couple of more times so that you make windfall gains from reselling the property to implementing authority. Use your influence to raise the budget of project if the authority denied it outright showing lack of budget.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(24 juin --- 30 juin)

📓

Cliquez pour voir/cacher

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
24	Pain tchapati,Pomme de terre	Riz,Soupe aux haricot mungo avec tête de Ruhi,Épinard d'eau	Paratha,Gourde pointue	Arachide
25	Pain tchapati,Gourde pointue	Riz,Pama Croaker avec Gourde épineuse, Purée de pelure de gourde pointue	Paratha(fait par moi),Purée de pelure de gourde pointue	Arachides
26	Pain tchapati,Gourde blache	Riz,Haricot vert,Soupe aux lentilles,Pama Croaker	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Gourde blanche	Arachides
27	Paratha(fait par moi),Haricot vert	Riz,Gombo,Purée de gourde épineuse, Perche grimpante	Pain tchapati,Pois chiches	Arachides
28	Paratha(fait par moi),Gombo,Haricot vert	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Pama croaker,Feuilles de pomme de terre et épinard d'eau	paratha(fait par moi),Gourde blanche	---
29	Pain tchapati,Gourde blanche	Riz,Ruhi,Gourde blanche	Paratha(fait par moi),Omelette	---
30	Pain tchapati,Gourde blanche	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi,Purée de pomme de terre,Papaye et harcot vert	---

Abuse,Free Court,More Trade Should Be On The Table

Free court, concerns over abuse of right, Flexibility towards foreign businesses Not only make the future bright, Also dispel doubts and differences.

In short span of time, two high officials of two powerful countries will visit Bangladesh. First Chinese Foreign Minister will make an unprecedented official trip to Bangladesh to galvanize strategic relations¹. Immediately after him a high official of US government will come to visit Bangladesh all the way from Delhi.

Many here see the visit of Chinese Foreign Minister as a mean to gather support for the ongoing tensions in the Taiwan straits. But Bangladesh already stressed “One China” policy,as a marginalized nation this is the alternative it has to adopt, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently reiterated that in a communiqué. Anticipations are high on the air that the visit will boost trade and investment and strategic partnership. Govt has already made it clear that it will not take any new loans following the turmoil in Sri Lanka and the ensuing controversy about Chinese projects. Strategic partnership is already there,signed during the tenure of General Belal as chief of Army staff and bypassing the Parliament. It witnessed a stagnant spell when the Rohingya crisis arrived on our shore and Chinese support for the Myanmar in international arena. Strengthening the military capability of Bangladesh is at the heart of this strategic partnership, conceived in the context of necessity to position soldiers along the borders of Bangladesh’s neighbors in the time heightened tensions. This local arms race in Bay of Bengal is drawing it closer to both Bangladesh and Myanmar. But this growing strategic partnership has a cost. With rising military strategic partnership, authoritarian quarter in Bangladesh is also gaining power. Chinese Communist Party is indeed a brilliant organization when it comes to develop human resources at home,to ensure rights and dignity of vulnerable groups of the society and to deliver justice in China. But when it comes to talk about the human rights situation, decay of governance in the countries under its sphere of influence it prefers to take a back seat. There is no concept of human rights report or governance report or freedom of speech report on other countries in China. If the Chinese Communist Party could initiate this, it will be an enormous help to the democracies in distress.

Bilateral trade is still in sorry state. In 2019-20,Bangladesh imported $11.49 billion worth of goods from China. In 2020-21,the import rose to $12.95 billion. In 2018-19,our export to China was $590 million, in 2019-20 it declined to 499 million and in 2020-21 export improved slightly to $566 million,but never reached the 2018-19 figure². So trade deficit keeps rising. Not only that China is investing heavily in RMG automation so that lower end RMG factories could not move to the lower wage countries. This is hurting countries like Bangladesh that benefitted tremendously in the past from the footloose nature of RMG industries, factories relocated in the lower wage countries when the wage rose significantly. Not only that its “zero dollar tourism” policy,every penny spent by Chinese tourist went to the pocket of Chinese tour operators, often hurt local industries as it happened in the Myanmar. In Bangladesh, we have witnessed with great pain that many big infrastructure projects have negligible Bangladeshi presence. More Bangladeshi engineers ,companies could have been taken on board to improve their portfolios. China could easily lift Sri Lanka out of this dismal state by ordering PLAN to do paint job of its vessels in the dollar-strapped country or by directing a portion of Chinese tourists in the country. That did not happen. Ignoring the strategic partnership it deals with Sri Lanka like a creditor and borrower.

And we do not see any formidable presence of Bangladeshi companies in bilateral trade. We would like to see more and more Bangladeshi manufacturers export their goods to China,bring the money back to the country and Bangladeshi companies' access to critical industrial technologies get serious attention. Unfortunately when it comes to dispute settlement ,Chinese legal system has yet to display its independence and its ability to act independently. As an ordinary Bangladeshi,I would like to know whether Chinese legal system could take stand against the state if the cause is just. For trade and commerce related dispute settlement this independent court is quintessential to deliver justice. For instance,in the past we witnessed many Bangladeshis and Bangladeshi companies got the verdict on their side in foreign courts. In USA,we see many individuals sued the federal govt and won. In India,many Bangladeshi victims got court ruling in favor of them securing compensation from the perpetrators. Is Chinese legal system ready to take such just stance? Chinese Communist Party is an ingenuous organization and can think ahead of times. As an ordinary Bangladeshi I hope China will raise its voices on protecting human rights and strethenting democracies,will distance itself from authoritarian regimes,will allow foreign businesses to play more role in bilateral trade and will have an independent judiciary that can even go against it instead of confining itself into the narrow concept of military strategic partnership that does little help to ordinary people.

Notes And References:

1. “China Pororashtromontri'r Alochona'r Table E Ki Thakche(What Is On The Discussion Table Of Chinese Foreign Minister?)? “,Masum Billah,bdnews24.com,August 05,2022. For more read at https://bangla.bdnews24.com/bangladesh/30z6a5umsb
2. Bangladesh Bank

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(15 juillet --- 22 juillet)

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
16	Pain tchapati,Papaye-Carotte-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards du buffle, Ruhi poisson avec pommes de terre,Citrouilles-Papaye-Graines du jacquier,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaya-Graines du jacquier- Citrouilles	Riz gonflé,Goyavier,Thé sans sucre
17	Pain tchapati,Pomme de terre,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Haricot vert et Graines du jacquier avec sec Bummalo poisson,Ruhi poisson,Gourde calebasse curry,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Vermicelles	Riz gonflé,Vermicelles,Thé sans sucre
18	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde calebasse, Lait,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Citrouille,Épinards d'eau,Ruhi poisson,Soupe des lentilles	Nouilles	Goyavier,Concombre,Vermicelles,Riz gonflé
19	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Ruhi poisson,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Amarante rouge,Haricot vert et pommes de terre,Orphie de l'eau douce	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Haricot vert et pommes de terre	Riz gonflé,Arachides,Thé sans sucre
20	Pain tchapati,Haricot vert et Pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Orphie de l'eau douce	Tchapati pain(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Ruhi poisson	Lait,Riz gonflé,Dattes
21	Pain tchapati,Papaye-Citrouille,Lait, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Œuf dur,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Gombo	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Œuf dur,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge	Dattes,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
22	Pain tchapati,Gombo,Lait et Datte,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards d'eau,Perche grimpante,Soupe des lentilles	Parota(fait par moi),Épinards d'eau et Perche grimpante	Datte,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(20 mai --- 27 mai)

Selon un reportage, une cour indienne a condamné 7 Bangladais à la prison perpétuelle pour avoir violé une Bangladaise en 2021.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a renouvelé la politique de versement depuis l’étranger. À partir de maintenant, les Bangladais peuvent envoyer remittances au Bangladesh en ne pas soumettant les papiers.

Selon un reportage, chef de l'haut-commissariat pour les réfugiés a peur que la guerre en Ukraine fasse une quête pour les Rohingyas très très difficile.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucrerie et Fritures
24			riz gonflé et pommes de terre avec oignon et poivre
25	Eau de citron et Psyllium Husk,pain et gourde serpent avec thé sans sucre	Riz,purée de pommes de terre,Ruhi poisson curry,tête de poisson dans soupe de Mung,banane curry	Pain et tête de poisson dans soupe de Mung	Riz battu au lait avec datte,thé sans sucre,Jamrul/Champoo
26	Eau de citron et Psyllium Husk,pain et tête de poisson dans soupe de Mung avec thé sans sucre	Riz,Puis Shak(un type d’épinards avec noix de Jackfruit et pommes de terre),Rui poisson,soupe de lentilles	Pain plat et soupe de lentilles	Riz battu au thé avec datte,thé sans sucre,riz gonflé avec pois chiches,chanachur,oignon et poivre
27	Eau de citron ,pain et omelette avec thé sans sucre	Riz,Data Shak(un type d’épinards ),Courge amère,Pama croaker poisson,soupe de lentilles	Riz gonflé, Pois chiches,Béguny,AlooPuri	Riz battu au lait chaud avec datte,thé sans sucre,Muraly(un bonbon de pois de chiches plongé dans la mélasse),Biscuit