La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(19 octobre --- 25 octobre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
19	Pain,Halwa du semoule	Riz,Petit poisson,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Lait	---
20	Pain,Halwa du semoule	Riz,Épinard malabar,Ruhi	Riz,Épinard malabar,Ruhi	---
21	Riz,Ruhi,Œuf	Riz,Petit poisson,Pomme de terre	Riz,Ruhi,Petit poisson	---
22	Pain,Citrouilles	Riz,Poulet	Riz,Ruhi,Poulet	Prunier de cochon
23	Pain,Poulet	Riz,Taro,Haricots rouge avec sec ruban	Riz,Taro,Haricots rouge avec sec ruban	---
24	Khitchuri,Œuf,Poulet	Riz,Taro,Pangash	Riz,Taro,Pangash	Biscuit
25	Riz,Œuf,Pangash	Riz,Thankuni(ombelle asiatique),Pangash	Riz,Thankuni,Pomme de terre	Lait,Prunier du cochon

Tackling Inflation: Slash Price , Launch New Scope

Amid inflation, slashing prices is a must, To save tiny savings, launch investment scope just.

Egg prices remain an issue in dealing with rising price levels. Despite increasing surveillance, prices are not lowered. For two days, big distributors stopped selling eggs as govt fixed prices for eggs at various stages. News reports say unusual precipitation hampered poultry farming across the country, causing shortfall of 5/8 million eggs daily. This is one of the reasons for unusual hike in egg prices. However, I disagree with the view that corporate groups bag huge profit from the unusual hike in poultry item prices. Swollen retained earnings presented as proof of foul play,but the profit before tax clearly shows size of profit corporate group usually generates¹.It is not true that retained earnings show earnings after dividends. Rather it is reserved for paying dividends or reinvestment in the future at the will of corporation.

There is an increasing tendency to blame cartel/syndicate for the price hike in kitchen market. Back in March and August in 2023 in two pieces titled "Poultry Meat Gets Costlier" and "Poultry Market Becomes Volatile Again", I highlighted that there are too many farms and punishment is immediate in case of forming cartel in the poultry market². Bangladesh Competition Commission fined two big farms and govt allowed import of Indian eggs. Then what is the point of forming cartel?

But there are signs of unholy alliance in the input market. Govt should probe on that. Like telecom business, govt may intervene in hatchery and feed production business to supply feed and chick to marginalized poultry farmers who find the feed prices too high.

Govt also needs to do a lot of things for hedging tiny savings against inflation. In our country, people do not have enough things to hedge their tiny savings against inflation except depositing money into bank accounts where interest rate is still lower than the true inflation rate. Govt is planning to allow ordinary people's investment into treasury bills which offer interest rate up to 12%. Problem is such investment requires minimum investment of Taka 100000 and it does not allow investment into treasury bills with 91-day or 180-day maturity. If small investors with Taka 500/1000/5000 are allowed to invest into such treasury bills, it would do a great help to them against inflation during the time of high price levels.

Similarly, ordinary people and micro savers' participation can be allowed into commodity exchange market where they can buy/sell futures ,options of commodities through banks/MFS. At the same time, foreign currency regulations act needs to be updated so that individuals can increase their foreign currency holdings in case of free fall of Taka or high inflation. Currently, the act forbids holding of foreign currency by individuals without valid documentation.

Lowering the price levels is a must step to give comfort from scorching heat of inflation. At the same time, it is no less important to protect peoples' savings.

References:

1. "Dim ,Murgi Beche Fule Fepe Utchhey Boro Utpadak Protishthangulo(Big Producers Get Bigger By Selling Eggs,Poultry) ",Mehedi Hasan ,Bonikbarta, October 16,2024. Link: https://bonikbarta.com/bangladesh/dLzn4ol50hNoEqfH
2. "Poultry Market Becomes Volatile Again",Rezaul Hoque, August 17,2023,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com.Link : https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2023/08/poultry-market-becomes-volatile-again.html?m=1

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(12 octobre --- 18 octobre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
12	Riz,Œuf,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi	---
13	Khichuri,Œuf dur	Pain,Lait	Nouilles	Prunier de cochon
14	Khichuri,Œuf dur	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Pomme de terre	Pain,Ruhi,Lait	---
15	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Papaye,Citrouilles	Riz,Petit taro chinois,Koi poisson	Pain,Petit taro chinois	Pois chiches
16	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Banane verte,Koi poisson	Riz,Poulet	Pain,Poulet	---
17	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet	Riz,Courge amère,Épinard d'eau	Riz,Poulet	Nouilles
18	Pain,Pomme de terre,Citrouilles	Riz,Épinard malabar,Pomme de terre,Citrouilles	Riz,Épinard malabar,Petit poisson	---

Resume The Routine Work

To know inflation, introduce producer price index, Resume routine work to ease the situation complex.

Bangladesh's inflation woes continue. Yet the govt is optimistic to contain the situation quickly. Meanwhile, flash flood caused by unusual rainfall is identified as one of the factors disrupting the supply chain. Poultry is hit by the flood to a great extent. At the same time, allegations of foul play in this particular sector are strong. Government allowed to import 40 million eggs from India to stabilize the egg market, which registered an unusual price of Taka 180/dozen. Consumers' protection body resumed their operation, identifying and catching red-handed few malpractitioners.

While government focuses on reforms( which are still being worked out) and election, routine functioning of a democratic govt is still missing. In my previous piece, I highlighted the role of regulatory bodies like BTRC,Competition Commission, BERC etc. Holding regular hearing and addressing pressing concerns, they somehow hold back malpractices in industry. A kind of check and balance. Similarly, parliament and parliamentary committee hold discussions and audition on key issues and call concerned persons / bodies to furnish their explanation. This particular form of check and balance is missing here. Because we are never allowed to practice it in the right way. So this interim govt could take a lead and initiate a subcommittee under the auspices of each ministry to hold hearing on pressing issues and offer solutions. It will lessen the workload of advisors. These subcommittees will keep a close tab on issues like price hike,law & order deterioration etc.

The issue of price hike is generating smoke. Two months passed since this govt took office, yet there is no improvement. Extortion, particularly political extortion is blamed for the rise in price level. Extortion to some extent is subdued ,yet price level is still rising. Here we focus too much on consumer price index, which mainly deals with prices at the retail level in cities. And selection of goods in calculation of CPI is highly questionable. But Producer Price Index(PPI) is often ignored. PPI focuses mainly on prices of ingredients needed to make final good. Price levels of ingredients, equipments should be monitored. Calculation of both PPI and CPI would reveal whether there is any distortion in the supply side. A corresponding change in CPI may be interpreted as price increase due to rise in price of raw-materials. If the change in CPI is larger than that of PPI,it may be concluded that some other factors are influencing prices in the distribution process. Allowing multiple parties to calculate both PPI and CPI would at least align the official data with the market data.

Idea of introducing license for wholesalers in the kitchen market was recently mooted. So that people with malevolent intentions stay away from kitchen market. I think registration with TIN and BIN in the wholesale market to a great extent curb market manipulation and stem entry of opaque capital in the market. But license/ registration process should be easy and flexible otherwise it will work as entry barrier and encourage black market for selling license like rickshaw license in Dhaka.

Chinese currency recently appreciated against the USD. It is good news for our exporters as Bangladeshi goods will be more competitive in the international market. China will relocate part of its manufacturing units abroad in the wake of rising cost at home.

Easing inflation and restoring law & order now depend on how the govt resumes the routine functioning and check and balance mechanism.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(05 octobre --- 11 octobre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
05	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Poulet	Riz,Poulet	---
06	Riz,Œuf,Gombo	Riz,Puntio barbe avec pomme de terre	Khichuri	---
07	Riz,Œuf	Riz,Pangash,Gombo	Pain,Pangash	---
08	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Petit taro chinois,Pangash	Pain,Pangash	Biscuit
09	Pain,Halwa de semoule	Riz,Épinard de malabar,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Épinard de malabar,Petit taro chinois,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	---
10	Riz,Œuf,Papaye	Riz,Papaye,Citrouilles,Pangash	Riz,Pangash,Papaye,Citrouilles	Biscuit
11	Riz,Citrouilles,Pangash	Riz,Pangash,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Ruhi	Goyave

Regulatory Grip Is Still Weak

No reflection of official data in market, Allow others to make the data perfect.

September inflation data published by BBS shows marked decline in inflation. Average inflation declined to 9.92% and food inflation declined to 10.36%. It means for the two consecutive months average inflation declined. If the trend continues significant improvement in price levels may be observed by the end of this year. However, except rice, key kitchen commodities have yet to reflect the inflation data. At home rice registered decline in prices by Taka 4/5 per kilo. This is largely due to decline in prices at international market. India also lifted restrictions on export of non-Basmati rice. Coarse rice registered the marked decline.

Weak regulatory grip is more conspicuous. Despite Army and police presence, people are still being beaten to death. Law & order has yet to return to normalcy. A lack of accountability is still prevailing in the ground. Last week I noticed that mobile data pack prices were raised by all the operators in unison. This time volume of the data pack for shorter duration was also lowered. Moreover, the speed of the internet has yet to reach the pre-election level. Too many unrest, mob beating may be one of the reasons for slow speed. But the operators have not furnished any explanation yet. Unlike the previous regime, there is no whimsical imposition of tariff or duties. Then why is this price hike?

Reactivating BTRC's hearing on mobile phone services to a great extent address the issues. Similarly, resuming the operation of Bangladesh Competition Commission could make marked improvement in consumption behavior of the consumers and competition.

Since this regime does not have political loyalists/storm troopers on the ground or inside the administration ,there is a tendency not to respect their orders / instructions. Hopefully ,in the coming months their regulatory grip will be strengthened.

I think govt should also allow others to calculate and publish the consumer price index.Consumer's body,Bangladesh Bank, association of banks, market research firms or individuals should be allowed to do the CPI survey and publish the inflation data. Since inflation is affecting interest rate, vernacular activities, investment, it will be prudent to bring multiple parties to calculate the inflation and then have a discussion on them. Then govt can officially announce the true inflation data, emerging from so many studies. Economic data should reflect the market. Govt's own think tank's recent study reveals people's lack of confidence in govt data. Info on true situation in the ground and successful implementation of instructions are keys to have a firm regulatory grip.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(28 septembre --- 04 octobre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
28	Pain,Œuf poché,Pomme de terre	Riz,Petit taro chinois avec sec ruban poisson,Épinard d'eau	Riz,Petit taro chinois avec sec ruban poisson,Épinard d'eau	---
29	Pain,omelette	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles,Papaye	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Papaye	Nouilles
30	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Pomme de terre,Latya	Pain,Latya	---
01	Khichuri,Omelette	Riz,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Pomme de terre,Lentilles	---
02	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf	Riz,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi	---
03	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Bulbous root of arum with dried ribbon	Riz,Bulbous root of arum with dried ribbon	---
04	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Poulet	Riz,Poulet	---