Friday, November 15, 2024

Stop The Tie-in

Privileged sales and banks' money to in-laws
Lead us to a market full of flaws.

In recent weeks, some mobile operators are offering mobile phones with new SIM connection. "Tie-in" sales are pretty common in consumer activity but we have to keep an wary eye on such sales as it has the potential to harm consumer interests in the long run. In addition, many leading operators are offering insurance to protect your cell phones from future damage. At first sight, it appears harmless and beneficial to consumers. But a deeper look may unravel some uncomfortable truth.

For instance, operators offering "tie-in" sales are also providers of high speed data. With high speed data, you will often notice that browsers auto add plugins or updates,often supplied by malicious providers with dubious intentions. Furthermore, YouTube streaming or other live streaming like in Facebook often makes your device vulnerable to hacking. Apart from that ,WiFi hotspots and free WiFi network also make your handsets and devices vulnerable to hacking. Maybe some deranged employee within an operator may engage in harmful activities, causing you lots of trouble financially. I experienced these things in the past and am often vocal against such consumer practices. I used the public operator for some time at ease ,experiencing higher pace of internet and no damage to my handset whatsoever. But for the last 11 months, I have stopped using it as services deteriorated. Switching to other operators only brought back those bad experiences back. Why are you offering insurance to handsets or new handsets with new connections if you are not acknowledging there are some faults in your side causing damages to consumers' handsets? Damages range from wiping out the operating software to key-logging the onscreen keyboard,from dark screen to dysfunctioning touch pad. Very few consumers have little knowledge about what happened. Moreover, lack of technical knowledge of the law enforcement agencies and consumers also fails to track the origin of the problem .

From the perspective of fair business, "tie-in" may cause unhealthy business competition. Say company A holds significant market share in industry A and another company B (say it is in the mobile phone business) holds significant market share in industry B. The companies decide to offer "tie-in" product for industry A(say the mobile SIM market). This "tie-in" will consolidate their market shares for both the industries by pushing up their sales. In this time of austerity, while consumers tighten their pockets, this kind of "tie-in" gives unreasonable privileges to the companies who consolidate their market shares to worrying level. This should be stopped.

At the same time, there should be no access to public banks' money for operators whose owners are politicians or in-laws of politicians. In the past, we witnessed how banks' money fallen into the hands of politically blessed in-laws became bad loans, only worrying the ordinary depositors and worsening banks' balance sheet. If they have better business ideas, they should go to the stock market, to IFC/MIGA or to the Dubai/Singapore based banks. They should not be given access to local banks' money.

From poultry ingredient market to the cellular networks ,we see how tie-in is adversely effecting the consumers, leaving a heavy blow to welfare and competition alike. For the sake of business and consumer's interest in this time of austerity, all kinds of privileged sales pitch should be stopped.

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(09 novembre --- 15 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
09 Khichuri, Œuf Riz,Ruhi Riz,Ruhi Biscuit
10 Khichuri,Ruhi,Œuf Riz,Purée de banane verte,Ruhi,Poulet Pain,Poulet Pomme
11 Riz,Poulet Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi,Poulet Pain,Lait ---
12 Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf Riz,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles Pomme
13 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Chou fleur,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Chou fleur,Pianju(marché),Soupe aux lentilles Pomme
14 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Tête de Ruhi dans soupe aux haricots mungo Riz,Tête de Ruhi dans soupe aux haricots mungo Singara(marché)
15 Khichuri Riz,Feuilles de radis,Petit poisson Riz,Feuilles de radis,Petit poisson ---

Thursday, November 7, 2024

Need Prudent Decision

Prudent macroeconomic management
Helps to weather the bad event.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is about to publish the inflation rate for October. September inflation rate declined to 9.92%. Despite the ongoing contractionary monetary policy, market has yet to reflect the official inflation data. Govt lifted all duties and taxes on rice import following the heavy loss of Aman paddy cultivation due to unusual precipitation in August-September. This is happening at a time when the govt embarked on bringing the corrupts to the book. During this anti-corruption drive many groups are reluctant to open L/C. On the other hand,high interest rate and lack of instructions from the central bank bar new entrants to go for rice import. Govt has to play crucial role to encourage grain import in this troubling time.

Yesterday(November 06), I read a Reuters report that depicts pessimism about economy following Trump's victory. The report says a fresh round of trade war would accelerate inflation as consumers will pay higher prices for consumer goods1.

I do not think so. Previous round of trade war under Trump presidency shrank global growth by 0.30%,according to the IMF. This time too, both the IMF and the World Bank projections hint slow down of major economies except the USA for next year. When growth shrinks,demand for output falls and it brings down the price levels. Trump's plan to impose 10% tariff on all foreign goods and 50% tariff on Chinese goods are likely to protect the car industry, particularly the electric vehicle industry. Apart from that it will bring pace to import substitution industry in the US along with the new tax rebate policies for the US businesses. This is heading towards more jobs,more income and more consumption. Trump is likely to recuperate loss from tax rebate by cutting govt spending abroad ( less military spending abroad, less foreign assistance, less fund for climate change etc). This Trumpian resource mobilization will boost consumer activity, a good news for Bangladeshi apparel export. I also disagree with Reuter's fear that it will delay Fed's plan for lowering the policy rate. Fed has already lowered the policy rate. Fall of demand for goods will bring down the price levels. Moreover, Saudis are planning to cut the prices for oil for Asia in December2. Prices of fuel, which influence the price levels, registers a decline. So lowering trend of inflation along with boost of American export due to increasing military spending across the globe will force the Fed to lower the policy rate. Back in June 15 this year, I highlighted in my piece titled "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War V", how fall in prices of soya and soya meals may help Bangladesh in the fight against inflation3.

Most importantly, high tariffs on Chinese goods will help relocating manufacturing units to other countries. More FDIs are expected under Trump presidency. In general for Bangladesh, non-food inflation will come down in the first two quarters of next year if any disaster does not disrupt the global supply chain.

Many social media channel claimed China refused to provide fresh credit to Bangladesh. They equated the decision with the regime change. I think it is economic reason rather than political one. Prior to former Prime Minister's visit to China,a Politburo member of Chinese communist party came to Bangladesh in an official visit along with EXIM bank of China and other ministry officials. They held talks with the central bank about the macroeconomy. JICA officials also held talks with the central bank about economy at this time to know first the real economic situation here. According to a report by Reuters4, Chinese public debt tripled its GDP due to the crisis in its housing market. So it slows down the economy and the party directing fresh credit to the manufacturing sector at home while the Belt and Road project gets less priority. I think for this reason China is not committing new loan to Bangladesh.

Last week, another decision, it appears, may hurt govt's revenue collection target for the next year. Government decided to revise 30% tax on capital gain from the stock market. The new rate is 15%. It will evidently hamper govt's revenue collection target of Tk 4.8/5.1 trillion next year. No ordinary or common people come to invest in share market, where opaque capital enjoys safe sanctuary. Earlier govt slashed tariff on edible oil and sugar. There are too many fiscal relaxations when the fiscal policy is supposed to align with the monetary policy. I think except the handful few kitchen items , which are consumed by all income groups, there should be no relaxation on taxes.

Government has to reconsider its decision on soft tax policy when normalcy in daily life and kitchen market has yet to return [and it has to meet a colossal revenue target]. Economic activities are not in full swing. Though external situation is in favor of a quick recovery, weathering the bad spell requires prudent economic management.

P.S.: BBS published the inflation for September when I am preparing the piece. General inflation increased to 10.87% and food inflation increased to 12.66%.

References:

  1. "Trump Victory To Reverberate Through Global Economy ",Balazs Koranyi,Reuters,November 06,2024. Link: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trump-victory-reverberate-through-global-economy-2024-11-06/
  2. "Aramco Cuts Oil Prices To Asia",Yahoo Finance,November ,06,2024. Link:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aramco-cuts-oil-prices-asia-185011180.html
  3. "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War V",Rezaul Hoque,June 15,2024.https://hoquestake.blogspot.com. Link:https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/06/macroeconomy-amid-trade-war-v.html?m=1
  4. " Why Trump Tariffs Pose A Bigger Threat To China's Economy This Time",Marius Zaharia,November 06,2024. Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-chinas-economy-is-more-vulnerable-trump-tariffs-this-time-2024-11-06/

Sunday, November 3, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(02 novembre --- 08 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
02 Riz,Lait Riz,Petit poisson Pain,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf ---
03 Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson --- ---
04 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Feuilles de radis,Soupe aux haricots mungo avec tête de Ruhi Pain,Soupe aux haricots mungo avec tête de Ruhi ---
05 Riz,Œuf,Soupe aux haricots mungo avec tête de Ruhi Riz,Petit taro chinois,Petit poisson Pain,Petit taro chinois,Petit poisson ---
06 Riz,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Ruhi,Feuilles de radis,Purée de banane verte Pain,Ruhi ---
07 Khichuri,Œuf,Ruhi Riz,Purée de banane verte,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Ruhi ---
08 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Petit poisson,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Petit taro chinois ---

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(26 octobre --- 02 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
26 Riz,Lait Riz,Ruhi,Luffa Riz,Ruhi Nouilles
27 Riz,Ruhi,Luffa Riz,Thankuni(ombelle asiatique),Petit poisson Riz,Thankuni(ombelle asiatique),Reba carp ---
28 Khichuri,Œuf,Ruhi Riz,Petit taro chinois Riz,Petit taro chinois Halwa du semoule
29 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Poulet Pain,Poulet Biscuit
29 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Poulet Pain,Poulet Biscuit
30 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Petit taro chinois Riz,Petit taro chinois ---
01 Khichuri,Œuf Riz,Petit poisson Pain,Lait Biscuit

Review Decision On Tariff And Vandalism

Review the decision on tariff and criminal act,
For more revenue and justice perfect.

Three weeks ago government lowered the prices of sugar and edible oil. Yet the two items are still being sold at higher prices. In general, 52% taxes( 30% duty,15% VAT and 7% advanced tax) were imposed on sugar before the new directive took effect. On the other hand, 15% VAT along with other duties were imposed on edible oil. Govt halved the import duty on sugar and halved the VAT on edible oil. Along with onion, import duty on edible oil and sugar constitutes a great part of import revenue. Slashing the duties will evidently lower the revenue generated from these two kitchen commodities.

In 2023, govt's sugar import stood at Tk 12710 crore. Every year govt imports Tk 25000 crore worth of edible oil. Now with the former duty structure, sugar alone generated Tk 6609.2 crore and edible oil Tk 3750 crore as import revenue. With the new tariff structure, revenue loss from sugar and edible oil will become Tk 1906.5 crore and Tk 1250 crore respectively. The decision would cost the govt altogether Tk 3156.5 crore in this time of austerity1&2.

As understood from desperation of tackling the inflation,the measures are pretty much in line with govt's top priority. At this time of slow business activity, revenue generation will be lower. This year govt faces an uphill task of meeting revenue target of Tk 5.41 trillion. Last year, revenue shortfall was Tk 381.57 billion against the target of Tk 4.1 trillion. The slow pace of revenue generation ( caused by political uncertainty, lack of capacity and slow business activity) is likely to hamper meeting the target. We have to wait for 1 or 2 months to see whether the tariff reduction has any impact on inflation.

My personal opinion is to review the decision immediately. Because sugar and to some extent edible oil get less priority in the list of essential kitchen items. So govt could easily retain Tk 3165.5 crore by reinstating the tariff structure. I am optimistic after the November 5 election things will improve dramatically including inflation.

Apart from fixing the revenue generation, addressing political uncertainty calls for objective stance on vandalism. Vandalism does not have different meanings for different people. It will be biased move for the govt to call one unlawful act vandalism while sparing the other one. Attacks on key public installation, foreign cultural institute, museum, police station, houses of former ruling party members should be treated as acts of vandalism and law should take its own course. Otherwise, biased justice will open another chapter of political agitation. In Sri Lanka, interim govt tried the attackers of presidential palace and the court sentenced them for their conduct. To gain the confidence of people from all walks of life, interim govt should do the same and immediately bring to book all the troublemakers, plunderers and arsonists. It is indeed a good news that United Nations Commission for Human Rights opened an office in Bangladesh. An independent forensic lab under the UN could help the probe on the atrocities committed during July and August. Reviewing the decisions taken so far could improve our revenue generation and help the govt gaining more confidence.

References:

  1. "Chinir Shulko 30% Theke Kome 15% Kora Hoechhey:NBR(Tariff On Sugar Lowered To 15% From 30%:NBR)",Daily Prothom Alo,October 09,2024.
  2. "Soyabin O Pam Tele Vat Chhar Diyecchey Sarker(Govt Slashed VAT On Soybean And Palm Oil)",Daily Prothom Alo,October 17,2024.

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Address Political Uncertainty

Consensus to address political uncertainty
May send a signal of greater clarity.

Central bank once again raised the policy rate by 50 basis points, making it 10% in a desperate measure to curb inflation. Governor earlier in an interview hinted to raise it even one more time in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, IMF downgrades Bangladesh's growth projection to 4% and anticipates that inflation will be around 10% next year. Earlier, the World Bank had downgraded the growth rate. Since inflation shows no sign of coming down, contractionary monetary policy will be prolonged.

The political protest,sit-in continue unabated. If the political crisis prolongs, it will create new problem as well as cast shadow over the economy. Unlike Sri Lanka where political parties formed the interim govt (which had support of even the outgoing regime) in a consensus, here the former ruling regime is nearly decimated,its student wing is facing ban and other parties are in no mood to have a dialogue with the former ruling regime before its trial. Some key groups associated with former regime signal to wind up their businesses. In addition, govt freezes bank accounts of many groups and owners who have been accused of corruption and money laundering activities. In the absence of greater political reconciliation, budget deficit may continue in the future. Many are demanding an election date. A specific date of the next election will clear away half of the uncertainty. Investors, businessmen and in general the economy will get a signal when the stalemate will be over. Maybe by mid November or by the end of November the draft reform policies and the white paper on corruption will be made public. This will further dispel the ambiguities on the objective of this govt. If this political uncertainty persists or lack of confidence on govt exists ,it will create new problems along with the ongoing economic woes.

Incumbent govt has a new responsibility in addition to fix the economy and start some reform programs. It is to clear political uncertainty arising from this regime change.

If it announces a date,even if it is 5/7 years later, or go for people's mandate for duration of the govt,which I propagated earlier in one of my pieces, it will give tremendous confidence to the economy and people. Because both will know where the country is heading and when it will be over.

When we are in the middle of an economic crisis, all the stakeholders (people,administration,parties) of this country have to think again whether our troubled economy and innocent people can bear the cost of frequent political misadventures.

Lack of reconciliation, rule of law and people's participation almost jeopardize bipartisan political structure, which somehow gives a kind of stability in many countries,in our country. Former ruling regime tried to do the "unnayan" (development) for people without taking their consent. By the same token, we see that "songsker" (reform) is being pursued for people bypassing their mandate. Trapping into the narrative of "biplobi sarker"(revolutionary govt) may cost the incumbent govt. Boasting such argument may invite another unsettling event that we should all try to avoid. People's mandate may throw cold water into all kinds of debate surrounding this govt. And it will be good for the economy. At the end of the day both " unnayan" and " songsker" will be done for the people. So they should be at the center stage of everything. Otherwise, I apprehend, vested quarters may exploit the situation as they did during the tenure of previous regime and during the caretaker govt. Our economy and taxpayers may not bear the cost of wrong policy decisions.

China recently lowers its policy rate. Earlier it had appreciated its currency. Low Chinese policy rate paves the path for cheap Chinese credit for the private sector. While foreign currency keeps coming, a large trade deficit in the bilateral trade calls for taking Chinese credit for the private sector to pay the bills for doing business with China. Previous regime did manage to get 1 billion yuan. If it necessitates, govt may go for another package when we need more credit to give our private sector to rejuvenate the economy.

Govt took some right steps to address inflation woes. Now it needs to unveil reform plans and address political uncertainty before it gets worse.