La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 13 septembre--- 19 septembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
13	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi	---
14	Riz,Lait	Riz,Tengra,Gourde blanche	Riz,Tengra,Soups aux lentilles	----
15	Pain,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Feuilles de Moringa	Riz,Feuilles de Moringa,Tengra	---
16	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Épinard,Malabar, Gourde blanche	Pain,Épinard malabar,Gourde blanche	---
17	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Gourde blanche	Pain,Soups aux lentilles,Gourde blanche	----
18	Pain,Gourde blanche,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson	---
19	Pain,Œuf,Lait	Riz,Igname violette	Riz,Igname violette	---

Altering Policy To Rejuvenate The Economy

A shift in policy can bring lasting change, Rejuvenating the economy,being the best hedge.

Govt has decided to float a new specialized bank, merging 5 troubled banks. In this endeavor, it intends to provide Tk 200 billion ($1.65 billion)to the new bank. When the new bank will become profitable, it will sell its share to private investors.

Though $1.65 billion into economy [is] within the limit of annual extra resources Bangladesh every year [produces],it still has the risk of falling into bad hands. Moreover, it will send a wrong signal to the economy: if you get away with bank's money ,govt is there to rescue it.

I think best thing would be to float shares of the new bank in the stock exchange and see how the investors respond to it. Response from the stock market will be its initial capital. Govt will make it profitable and then sell it to the private sector is indeed a bad idea.

The bigger danger is if this $1.65 billion of public money becomes bad then it will add to the $34.71 billion NPL.

This $1.65 billion could have been used in productive manner instead of giving to the troubled banks. Govt can add this money to its credit program for the SMEs to mitigate the loss stemming from exchange rate volatility and policy rate hikes.

Apart from that money could be used to give soft credit to RMG subcontractors who are in expansion mood and the return will come back within 24 months if they are not politically motivated entrepreneurs.

Govt does not have to provide liquidity support to the private sector. It can do so by changing policy. A good part of public spending goes to defense. If it allows private sector to get part of this public spending through introduction of special ordinance, then it will rejuvenate the economy by allowing fresh orders for private companies, which are/should be enlisted into stock exchange. Two good things will happen----part of public spending will go to the private sector and there will be transparency to spending as private companies will compete and disclose information about them in public domain. There is no need for govt purchasing [& producing] boots, uniforms, ammunition ,training munitions ,patrol boats and crafts for the Armed Forces. Former military technicians, engineers, workers will be absorbed into these companies and some of them will [be] owners of these companies. Now most of them engage in sectors where their skills go into ashtray and where polarized politics [turns] them into rogue personnel. This initiative will make good use of their skills and post-military career, making safe both politics and security establishment.

In Malaysia, a small private company makes training [munitions], rockets for their fighter planes.They save money and keep part of the spending at home through domestic private companies. Every year the Armed Forces need training munitions, bullets. Private sector could easily take charge of supplying them through investment in production facilities. This can be done in 1 or 2-year. Technical people are available. Even Sri Lanka makes its own APC and missiles for its Armed Forces in spite of having much smaller budget compared to Bangladesh(See Sri Lanka Electrical & Mechanical Engineers And Centre For Defense Research & Development).

Since this is an Army-backed govt, it can easily introduce reform programs [in the defense]. No one will [bother] or question its legitimacy.There are RPO and other laws for politicians and political parties to ensure their transparency. The only organ of the country that stays above of any transparency is the Armed Forces. Two distinct ordinances---one for ensuring accountability [of the Armed Forces] to the Parliament and the press and another for allowing private sector in defense article production--- could do a great service to the nation and make meaningful tenure of this govt. In one of my pieces, I highlighted appropriate laws in neighboring country and in the USA (See "Joint Defense Production: Some Points To Note", published here on February 23,2024). As a democracy ,we have to make sure that our taxpayer's money does not fall into coffer of state institutions that do not respect the Parliament and [are] not accountable to the people. In this time of austerity, this simple initiative could bring the much needed rejuvenation to the economy discarding the policy of liquidity support and manipulating economic data.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 06 septembre--- 12 septembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
06	Pain,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi,Feuilles de taro	Riz,Feuilles de taro	---
07	Pain,Gourde blanche,Œuf	Riz,Gourde blance,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Gourde blanche,Soups aux lentilles	----
08	Pain,Œuf	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	---
09	Pain,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo avec tête de poisson	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo avec tête de poisson	----
10	Pain,Pois blancs	Riz,Feuilles de jutte,Pois blancs,Courge amère	Riz,Pois blancs,Courge amère	---
11	Pain,Œuf,Pois blanc,Courge amère	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre	Biscuit (depuis marché)
12	Pain,Œuf, Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Petit poisson	Riz,Petit poisson	---

NPL Endangers Exchange Rate

NPL is a threat to economic stability, Electoral pledges should focus how to deal with this reality.

The growing Non Performing Loan(NPL) appears to be a big concern. However, no detailed plan is set out, as demonstrated in electoral pledges by the parties to tackle the issue. Since economy is secondary issue,political reforms turn out to be primary concerns of politics. Meanwhile, the NPL situation has the potential to destabilize the value of Taka and may prolong the contractionary monetary policy, which means a higher monetary policy rate for a [prolonged] period.

What is worrying the NPL has long ago [crossed] the 30% mark of total loans,making true apprehension of the central bank. The ongoing management of the economy says govt has failed to attain the targets of inflation and NPL,set out by the IMF. Yet the Bretton-Wood institution is kind enough to furnish the credit packages as forex reserve keeps growing and exchange market is liberalized.

The NPL stood at Tk 4.2 trillion by the end of January-March quarter. State Banks account for Tk 1.46 trillion and private banks account for Tk 2.64 trillion of the NPL while the foreign banks account for Tk 32.38 billion. NPL was Tk 2.11 trillion by the end of June 2024,which was 12.56% of total loans. Look at the huge increase of NPL: from 12.56% in June ,2024 to more than 30% of total loans in June ,2025! (See Non Performing Loans Surge By Tk 74570 cr In Q1 As Hidden Rot Exposed", The Business Standard,June 15,2025.)

In USD, it is equivalent to $34.71 billion(assuming 1 USD=Tk 121).Could the next elected govt downsize it dramatically within its tenure? Popular govts are reluctant to pursue tight monetary policy. Even if they have firm commitment ,they may do it for 1 or 2 years. That means even if a govt committed to discipline the economy, they will have a time between 12 months and 24 months to fix the NPL. The rest of its tenure will be used to promoting policies to win the next election.

Magnitude of the problem lies in downsizing this $34.71 billion in just two years while NPL keeps growing. Failure to do that means govt has either to pump money into economy as the term " liquidity support to troubled banks" becoming increasingly popular or to raise taxes and let die some of the banks. If money [amounting] to half the size of NPL is injected into economy, Taka is going to plunge. Because capacity of our economy is not that strong to generate so much resources (worth $17 billion ,half of the NPL) in 12 or 24 months. That is an uphill task!

In my piece "Last Year's Extra Money", I highlighted that last year Bangladeshi economy generated around $2 billion worth of extra rice,$2.59 billion worth of extra RMG export and $4.7 billion worth of extra remittances. At the same time, we also witnessed extra losses from flash flood and political change. Now if we add FDI figure into it, the extra resources in 2024 becomes $10 billion (See"Last Year's Extra Money", published here on January 10,2025).

However, our external debt service payment is also growing. In 2022, the debt repayment was $2 billion and it rose to $2.67 billion in 2023 (source: Bangladesh Bank). According to some news reports, it crossed $3 billion last year. In another piece, I highlighted except agriculture, other sectors do not add much value to the economy. So the true size [of] the extra resources our economy generated last year is much lower than $10 billion. And minus the debt repayment ,it becomes even smaller.

Say $8 billion worth of extra resources will be created next year, then $9 billion worth of money will be introduced into economy in 2026 just to tackle the NPL for 24 months. The sheer size of liquidity support through printing money will deteriorate Taka's value against major currencies. And such deterioration may cause further inflation. And we are talking about half the size of NPL here! And there is other danger too!

Even if laundered money returns in disguise of remittances or export earnings, sheer size of it [will] cause inflationary pressure as this adds no value to the economy. Just money travelled back and forth.

And any volatility in the exchange rate of Taka will not bring the FDI. For the sake of FDI, we have to stabilize the exchange rate. And to bring vibrancy to the economy ,we have to contain the inflation.

So the growing NPL casts shadow over exchange rate of Taka. There should be clear roadmap on how to tackle the NPL. Otherwise, indiscipline economy will pose serious threat to the [economic stability].

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 30 août --- 05 septembre)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
30	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf	Riz,Petit Poisson	Riz,Petit poisson	---
31	Pain,Papaye	Riz,Mudskipper	Riz,Mudskipper	Biscuit (depuis marché)
01	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi	---
02	Riz gonflé	Riz,Épinard malabar,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Épinard malabar,Soupe aux lentilles	---
03	Pain,Papaye	Riz,Œuf curry ,Soupe aux lentilles	---	---
04	Pain,Œuf curry,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya,Petit poisson	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya,Petit poisson	---
05	Pain,Pomme de terre bhaji	Riz,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi	---

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 23 août --- 29 août)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
23	Pain	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentillesa	---
24	Pain	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Ruhi	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Ruhi	---
25	Pain	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Ruhi	Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo	---
26	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet	Riz gonflé,Poulet	---
27	Pain,Papaye	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard malabar	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard malabar	---
28	Pain,	Riz,Ruhi,Épinard malabar	Biscuit(depuis marché)	---
29	Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi ,Épinard d'eau	---	---

It Is Time To Integrate Them

Forced repatriation leads to a situation in tatters, Integration is the key solution that really matters.

Bangladesh witnessed 8th anniversary of Rohingya influx in the country. Around 11 million Rohingyas now reside in various camps across Southern part of Bangladesh. Promised repatriation did not take place as anticipated, rather Myanmar descended into a civil war,which is likely to wane after the election. Patience wears thin in cash-strapped Bangladesh. Aid is drying up. Learning centers are closing down in the camps.Some Rohingyas met horrifying death at sea while attempting to reach the affluent East-Asian countries. This year a boat capsize off the coast of Thailand killed 400 Rohingyas, a shocking number. What is more shocking an UNHCR official [attributed] the reason to aid cut.

I think aid cut has nothing to do with growing vulnerabilities of the Rohingyas.It is the uncertainties of their status,lack of right and opportunities that led them to meet this tragic end at the sea.

There is a growing cry to repatriate them to Myanmar,where other communities are not prepared to take them back. Myanmar is not a democratic country, where groups,people still settle dispute through guns. At the same time ,Bangladesh has to keep good relations with all the groups and stakeholders including Tatmadaw. It will take time for one group accepting other group and reintegration into the society.

Peaceful Myanmar, particularly the frontier state,is crucial to the development of Bangladesh. Bangladesh alone cannot stop the clash inside Myanmar. But we have to strive hard to make sure that conflict zone lies 1000 km away from our border so that our frontier villagers do not [hear] gunshot and development works go peacefully inside Bangladesh. In that light, balkanization of Myanmar does not serve our long term purpose.

Meanwhile, any forceful repatriation is neither good for the Rohingyas, nor good for Bangladesh. We have to conduct a survey among the Rohingyas about their repatriation. Those want to stay back should be integrated into Bangladeshi society by giving them citizenship. We should negotiate for those who want to [go back]. A safer place inside Myanmar, maybe a dedicated island or the Mandalay or Yangoon region,where they will not be attacked again. To reduce their vulnerabilities, we should offer economic opportunities for all irrespective of their position on repatriation. Current donor-funded NGO works inside the camps are not sustainable. Under the auspices of the UN, the security force may take charge of conducting relief works and other humanitarian activities. Former US army personnel, former Tatmadaw officers, former PLA soldiers may provide their assistance as educators,health workers, entrepreneurship development coach and other professions. I earlier argued about "Made By Rohingya" initiative to start business operated by the Rohingyas(See "Made By Rohingya",published on https://rezaulhoque.wordpress.com on March 09,2018, and "Chalk Out A Domestic Rohingya Policy", published here on January 19,2019). At the same time, free movement of the Rohingyas by large passenger-cum-cargo ships across the other countries of Malacca straits and the Middle East ,to a great extent,will reduce their isolation and vulnerabilities and thwart risky sea-crossing attempt. Apart from that, paramilitary forces may recruit 5000 Rohingyas and lift out 5000 families from poverty. And it will fill the void inside security forces where there is a dearth of Rohingya and [Rakhine] speaking people. Two dedicated TV channels in Rohingya and Rakhine language should be launched so that camp dwellers and Bangladeshis get info about camp life and what is going on inside Myanmar.

NGO activities should be restricted and replaced with local initiatives and income earning opportunities. Bangladesh can recruit foreign law firms, consultancy firms operated by former security personnel, police to cross check info about foreign nationals taking jobs here inside the camps or working in diplomatic mission. In Bangladesh , many of them are not seasoned professionals and often they are not reintegrated into their organization. Cox's Bazar and frontier districts are sensitive spots. And Bangladesh can ill afford wasting foreign taxpayers' money by allowing such individuals. In that light, this foreign aid cut is doing a great service [to] Bangladesh rather than a disservice. Humanitarian efforts should focus on [addressing] real issues on the ground , not to create wage employment for foreign nationals.

The civil war in Sri Lanka pushed many Tamils into India. At least 1 million preferred to stay back and did not return.Things are not that bad in Rakhine state. But we have to give time so that one community accepts the other. Bangladesh has to maintain good relations with all the groups, stakeholders of Myanmar. Any balkanization of the region is detrimental to our interests. Since repatriation will take time, we may integrate part of the Rohingyas into Bangladesh, [provide] economic opportunities to all of them,[arrange] maritime access to other countries through some accord, [ensure] more engagement of foreign Army veterans of key regional powers in providing humanitarian assistance, [ensure] less dependence on NGOs and [launch] made-by-Rohingya initiative [that] will reduce the vulnerabilities of the Rohingyas to a great extent.