Saturday, September 21, 2019

Video Did Not Kill The Radio Star

Recent manifestation of some laid off RMG workers at some pockets of Dhaka and neighbouring districts brought forth a debate that was already settled. It is all about whether automation kills jobs.

Bangladeshi RMG industry in recent years inclined towards automation that requires less operators or workers at various stages of a production process. Some factories reintroduced the laid off workers to other section while the rest continue to terminate them without paying dues. Many of these angry workers descended on the streets and protested for their dues.

I once caught myself in one of these unrests in Mirpur that literally stopped the vehicular movement for half a day.

Many here tried to blame automation for this lay off and unrest.

The RMG industry and Textiles sector itself shows how hollow the argument is. From handloom to powerloom to sophisticated machineries, bevy of equipments have been introduced to this strategically crucial sector since this sector started to fetch forex for the country. Have you seen any decline in recruitment? No. What changes did unfold before us? We started to produce woven shirts, sweaters, denim pants etc that we had not produced before. Previously we were only good at producing couple of knit items. Now our knit garments industry produces highly value added items. Moreover, productivity has also increased.

With adoption of new machinery, our RMG and Textiles industry now produces more technically challenging items that bring more revenues. As revenues from manufacturing traditional item do not cease to come, exporters invested more in production of value added items. For instance, many knit exporters invested heavily on knit items that require embroidery work. To produce these high value items, they invested in embroidery machines and to train operators so that the embroidered work reflects the finest quality of craftsmanship.

It is pretty obvious from this example that sophisticated machinery not only relieves the abundant labours from producing traditional items, it also reemploys some of them on production of more high value items.

One may argue that one or two initiatives cannot be presented as examples. But five years down the line more firms will follow the successful initiatives as automation overwhelms the present production process. Automation in RMG is not a job killing process, rather it is a stage reducing process. More jobs will be created at a later date.

Pertinent would be to cite the example of industrial revolution. Similar argument was floated back then. It was widely viewed as a process to kill jobs at agricultural sector. However, industrial revolution brought the rural peasants to cities and offered them jobs at new industries. A new relationship between recruiter and employee was developed through the instrument of job contract. The rural peasants earned more by working in the industry and mechanization also revolutionized the agricultural sector in general.More environment friendly and cost effective production process was developed and introduced. Innovation in the processing and preservation and introduction of supply chain management system also made agriculture a lucrative business in the post industrial phase.


So new ideas and technologies are not job killing process but open up new alleys of opportunities in general.

Another wrong perception about automation is that it will lower wages at a certain industry. It is perhaps not the case. Wages may vary across the industry, but introduction of new technology will not drive the wages to such a low level that workers refuse to work. Wages are based on a worker's decision to buy a bucket of goods and services that are quintessential to survive at a certain point of time.Prices of goods and services go up over the years due to inflation. This must reflect on bare minimum wages, below which a worker refuses to work. As long as inflation does its work, wages are supposed to increase.

Moreover, adoption of new technology often leads to higher productivity and more revenue. This higher productivity also plays a role to raise wages of employees of all levels.

If we take a close look at the informal sector, we will see wages of rickshaw pullers and construction workers rose significantly over the years.Please note the two sectors also witnessed tremendous boom in technology in recent years.Battery-run rickshaws augmented earnings of rickshaw pullers and increasing use of machinery did not lower the wages of construction worker.

Battery-run rickshaws literally increased the wages of whole rickshaw industry, including the tri-cycle rickshaws. Meanwhile, rising food prices and higher wages in other sectors did not cause the rickshaw fare to fall in spite of the fact that overwhelming number of rickshaws ply over the streets.

In construction industry of Dhaka, inflation coupled with use of machinery and higher wages in other sectors also raised the  wages in this industry.

In a nutshell, argument floated in favour of automation kills jobs sounds hollow at the end of the day. The Buggles back in late '70s composed a popular song on the wake of  arrival of VCR called " Video killed the radio star". In the course of time, title of the song was proved wrong. Radio Stars were temporarily went off the radars of people's memory. But internet and mobile phone, dotted with FM radio, resurrected those Radio Stars.Now we have more FM radio stations and radio jockeys. Sometimes we watch live some radio programmes on social media or TV and simultaneously listen to the programmes on Radio. Technology is the healer, not the killer.

Friday, September 20, 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux


( 14 septembre --- 21 septembre)
J'ai peiné de mettre à jour mon site puisque mon portable épuise souvent et mon laptop est complètement en panne.

Selon un reportage, deux membres de JSS ont été tués par balles à CHT.

Selon un autre reportage, des étudiants d'une école, dirigé par un groupe indigène, se sont insurgés contre l'autorité après un étudiant avait sauté depuis deuxième étage de l'école suite réprimande pour obtenir mauvaise note dans l'examen. Ils sont vandalisé cour d'école.

Selon un reportage, le parti en exercice a entamé une purge dans le parti. Plusieurs dirigeants ont été licenciés et arrêtes par la force de sécurité. La force élite a aussi fait raide dans des clubs où casinos clandestins ont été mis en place par des dirigeants supérieurs.

Selon un reportage, police a appréhendé une bande d'escroc qui a falsifié 5000 cartes d'identité nationale en utilisant les laptops volés depuis annexe régionale de la commission électorale.

Selon un reportage, des ouvriers d'atelier de confection sont descendus dans les rues et manifesté pour arriérés et licenciement dans plusieurs endroits de Dhaka. Selon un reportage, police a arrêté des membres d'une unité élite pour avoir vendu des yabas saisis.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(6 septembre --- 13 septembre)

Selon un reportage, société norvégienne Telenor dans un communiqué s'est dit qu'elle avait brusquement mis le fin au pourparlers de fusion entre Telenor et Axiata dans le marché de l'Asie du sud.

Selon un reportage, une explosion mystérieuse dans un restaurant à Gazipur a laissé blessé une dizaine de personnes.

Selon un reportage de BBC, Tatmadaw a construit facilité militaire sur les villages de Rohingya ciblé par violence et assaut incendiaire.

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé une usine de frigo à Gazipur.

Selon un reportage, les ouvrières d'atelier de confection font au sujet de harcèlement sexuel au Bangladesh. Le plateforme d'atelier de confection, BGMEA, se dresse contre le reportage de Guardian.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(30 août --- 1 septembre)
Selon un reportage, État islamique a revendiqué un attentat contre police le samedi soir. Le secrétaire général du parti en exercice a mis en op garde qu'il y aurait attentat comme ça à l'avenir.

Selon un reportage, la Chine a mis 5 banques bangladaises dans la liste noire pour avoir détecté les transactions fausses qui coûtaient les importateurs bangladais et chinois millions de dollars.

Selon un reportage, autorité de télécommunications a ordonné de fermer tous les services de télécommunications dans les camps de Rohingya.

Selon un reportage, un atelier de confection a licencié environ 700 ouvriers sous prétexte de manque de commande d'achat à Tejgaon, Dhaka.

Selon un reportage, luttes intestines de la filiale du parti en exercice se sont soldées par fermeture de l'université de la technologie à Noakhali.

Selon un reportage, un policier a été appréhendé pendant un cambriolage à Motijheel.

Selon un reportage, des fidèles du parti en exercice et élèves d'un séminaire ont déjoué une tentative d'évincer une cuisine de séminaire,s'installe dans un parc opéré par la mairie de Dhaka nord à Mohammadpur.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement va bientôt créer RMG Sustainability Council afin de prendre responsabilité de l'Accord, plateforme des acheteurs européens de vêtements bangladais d'ici le 25 novembre.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Enforce Laws To Protect Consumer Rights

Slapping punitive tariffs for hiding information on new subscribers ratchets up tension between telecom regulator and two leading mobile operators. The matter reached to court and the operators sought to settle the issue outside the court. BTRC keeps saying that the two have to pay the tariffs and even cut their bandwidth to comply.

Mobile operators have every reason to get angry over imposition of supplementary duties every now and then. However, telecom regulator does not take the operators into task for violating consumer rights and harming competition.

In recent years, we witnessed mergers of key mobile operators. Interestingly no hue and cry has been heard from the government side. In USA, antitrust laws protect consumer interests and head off initiative to harm competition. At the heart of US antitrust policies lies the Sherman Act , the Clayton Act and the Federal Trade Commission Act. The Sherman Act discourages bad monopoly practices. Meanwhile the Clayton Act prevents price discrimination, tie-ins, exclusive dealings, mergers that shrink competition and control of competing firms by interrelated board of directors. The Federal Trade Commission Act paved the path for creation of Federal Trade Commission Act to enforce antitrust laws.

Like US antitrust laws, Bangladesh in 2012 passed Competition Act that aims " to make provisions to promote, ensure and sustain congenial atmosphere for the competition in the trade, and to prevent, control and eradicate collusion, monopoly and oligopoly, combination or abuse of dominant position or activities adverse to the competition." It also entailed creation of Bangladesh Competition Commission (BCC). Unfortunately BCC first witnessed appointment of its chairman back in 2016 and the body remains a toothless tiger under Ministry of Commerce with an annual budget of Tk 1.8 million, which is subject to ministry's approval.

In USA, not all mergers and acquisitions deem anti-consumer and anti-competition if those amalgamations result in more efficiency for the firm and thereby improving the welfare of the society as a whole. For instance, merger of two competing firms may lower the marginal cost of the combined firm in post merger period. Since the firm produces at lower marginal cost than before its efficient production may render better quality product or more output at same price or both for the consumers. Thus the social welfare is also increased because of this merger. In this light merger is good and antitrust laws do not put any obstacle in such amalgamation. A merger may also lead to increase in price and less output. A deadweight loss is attributed to the rise in price and lowering of output. Antitrust laws enforcement authority examines whether efficiency gains outweigh deadweight loss of a potential merger. If efficiency gains offset or more than offset deadweight loss of a merger plan then the court or antitrust law enforcement body nods affirmatively to such merger proposal. Otherwise, it throws cold water to merger plan. Those managed to get their merger deals passed the probing eyes of antitrust laws enforcement bodies did so by selling their efficiency gain's concept.

Bangladesh's mobile telecommunications industry is characterized by oligopoly: identical product and few operators. Previously six operators dominated the industry. Axiata's acquisition of Airtel and dissolution of Citycell reduced the number of operators to four. One does not have to be an expert to say competition is reduced because of merger. Are the consumers better off now than before? Coming back to it a little bit later.

In the USA, authority blocks merger or acquisition attempt if it leads to increase of market power of the merged firm. This market power is defined by firm's ability to set price above the price under perfect competition. One of the indirect measure of this market power is the share of the market. Often a market share of 50 percent is deemed low as market power if other firms can enter easily into the market and drive price lower to the competitive market. Unfortunately this is not easy in Bangladesh's mobile telecommunications service industry. Entry is not easy here. So any merger insinuates concentration of market power to merged company and thereby reduction in competition. EBL securities prepared an analysis for its clients about the mobile operators of Bangladesh. According to EBL Securities Limited, GrameenPhone and Robi own 43% and 33% of market share of active mobile internet subscribers respectively in September, 2018. In terms of revenue, GrameenPhone holds 58% of the market share whereas Robi holds 28% of the market share till the third quarter in 2018. Before 2016 when the merger between Airtel and Robi took place, Robi had 26% of the revenue market. Clearly Robi's revenue market share increased by 2% due to merger. Technically speaking a reduction in competition occurred.The body that supposed to look into this matter , Bangladesh Competition Commission, was formed in that same year. However, Bangladesh Telecom Regulatory Commission introduced Significant Market Player clause that allows it to impose restrictive measures to curb influence of a dominant market player.

Court in December 2018 also banned any hike in call rate. However call rate increased significantly since the merger of Airtel and Robi. Earlier 33 paisa/ minute was the lowest available call rate, now it is 77 paisa/ minute. When it comes to mobile internet data, BTRC intervened to raise the duration of all data packs to a minimum of one week. From my personal experience I can tell operators took off many offers following the instruction. For instance, data pack of 25 MB for 4 hours at Tk 5 literally disappeared. Data pack worth Tk 9 for 24 hours resulted in a duration of 72 hours. Consumers' cost on data pack has increased following reduction in competition. In addition, call drop crops up every now and then in the middle of conversation, prompting BTRC order to compensate subscribers in the event of call drop. Consumers in general do not receive more output from the leading operators let alone experience better service and products. Out of the blue this year we came to learn via Telenor website a negotiation was started to merge Axiata and Telenor in South Asia. However, Axiata underscored that Bangladesh operation is not part of the merger discussion. It is hilarious to hear such argument when operations of a significant market are about to come under one clutch and only one part will be left out. The merged company will have far more control on cost and thereby deeper influences on setting prices across different markets. This merger negotiation also laid bare to ridicule ability of our agencies to foresee such important amalgamation that has the potential to affect VAT and Tax revenue of the government struggling to finance development projects and social security programs.

Many subtle incidents also go unnoticed to the eyes of our antitrust bodies. For instance, selling of high value mobile phone sets or tabs at extended installments by mobile operators. This kind of practices deter competition among retailer shops and raise the costs for selling of such sets in the retail market. This tie-in sale practice has to be addressed in the Competition Act.

Another incident is to pick up exclusive multimedia content provider for entertainment contents. For instance, leading operators often inked exclusive deal with online entertainment service providers at a special fee or free of cost. This kind of exclusive deals raise entry barrier to other similar service providers and kill many budding companies. With the introduction of 4G , mobile operators play the role of windows to seamless internet service industry. In that service industry,  it cannot cut special deal with some clients ( entertainment service providers are operators ' clients) by depriving others. This subtle-competition-killer matter has to be taken into account by our antitrust authority in a bid to augment competition and welfare.

However, we have to acknowledge that the leading two mobile operators play a crucial role in bridging digital divide and educating poor and hard-to-reach community through their freebasics services at zero balance. The Facebook assisted freebasics allows one to browse internet without paying any fee.Obviously the two operators run this program as part of corporate social responsibility out of their own pockets.

But it should not be the reason to allow the merger of two operators who have significant subscriber base and market share. Government can sell another telecom license to a new willing company in combination with ailing one brings some foreign partner so that there is resurgence in competition in mobile telecom market. So far BTRC and the Court have taken the onus of enforcing competition and consumer rights in this market. In the coming months I hope Bangladesh Competition Commission under the auspices of parliament will take the lead in that end. Before that our Competition Act needs to be updated to address various forms of competition killing practices.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Recipe To Become Filthy Rich In Bangladesh

It appears that we have turned Bangladesh into a hermetic kingdom where we introduced rules and practices that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. Traffic lights are a pertinent example where you see vehicles crossing key roundabout while the "red" is on, pressing the need of traffic police at every traffic lights to force every vehicle to obey the rules. By the same token, Bangladesh has devised some unique ways for individuals who aspire to become filthy rich in a densely populated country where residual ash from an earthen stove and cowdung are sold and generate profit.

Below are some of the techniques frequently used by the successful summiteers and the nouveau riche:

Recipe#1: subscribe to a political party (cadre based ones are even better), look for empty govt lands, set up a slum and collect monthly rents. Perks include regular payments, surpass the total monthly rents, paid by drug sellers. Bata with its more than 1000 sales centers across Bangladesh made a profit of around Tk 50 crore last year. One single slum could make that money in one month!
Recipe#2 : subscribe to any political party (cadre based ones are even better), take huge amount of loan from banks using your political status, forget to pay them, spend some to raise media outlet or to donate cultural events or religious charities, grab abandoned industrial plot, become willful defaulter and take more loans.

Recipe#3: befriend a politician, civilian and military bureaucrat, get some permit/ license of lucrative business, boast your friendship with powerful elite, police and military in social events and social media to convince people you have high connections, exploit this link to squeeze benefits from business deals and transaction, put up a barrier to entry to your competitors, sponsor political and armed forces run events,launder your wealth abroad so that in adverse time or in any change of power your wealth and business remains untouched and be loyal and faithful to your connections.

Recipe#4: subscribe to any political party (cadre based ones are even better), set up illegal bazars on roadside, collect rents from them, in addition also collect protection money and utility bills, form an association of businessmen, become its member or president, hire some actors to behave like transgender, force them to do begging at key roundabouts, get a trade license and set up a business to whiten your extortion money.

Recipe#5: get membership of various wings of political parties (cadre based ones are even better), start doing export-import business, look for cash incentives / funds available for entrepreneurs/ exporters, swindle those funds, prepare some fake documents to misappropriate cash incentives, bring some money through your fake export partner to convince people you are really doing some export business, start producing cinemas (biopics or folklore stories are good choices to start with), spend some for generating PR about your film(tell the press a swollen figure), declare that your film made an astronomical sum of profit in the box office, and whiten part of the swindled money.

Recipe#6: get membership of any political party (cadre based ones are even better), erect a party office in local bazar, start collecting regular money from the vehicles at bus stand or tempo stand, grab some government property or land belongs to vulnerable people, construct a market complex on that land, bribe city planning officials and exceed floor limits, set up a garments factory, pay irregularly to your staff, switch side if there is a change in government, set your factory on fire and claim insurance from the companies, shut down indefinitely your company if there is unrest , fire the agitating workers, recruit fresh workforce,put blame on rivals or conspirators, ask for loan from banks to recuperate from industrial disaster and read biography of Sohel Rana, owner of Rana Plaza.

Recipe#7: set up a multi-level firm under disguise of cooperative or youth financing institution, collect deposits from members promising your company have lucrative businesses abroad,  give some of the members regular monthly payments dubbing them "profit"  so that they could bring new members, buy a piece of land in a remote part of the country and plant trees telling the members their money is in good use, set up super market and force members to  buy goods from those supermarkets, launch a media house, try to run for MP election or finance electoral campaign of a party, buy citizenship of a foreign country, dissolve your MLM company one fine morning and melt into abroad.

Recipe#8: get enlisted with any ministry or government organization as constructor/vendor, set up a construction company, take part in bidding process of government projects, bribe politicians or ministry officials involved with the projects, influence them to prolong the duration, build the infrastructure with substandard materials so that it lasts only one monsoon or quarter of its lifetime, sponsor foreign trip of project officials or investigator probing development and quality of a project, submit forged documents and siphon off project money prior to its completion, project procurement cost couple of times higher than usual by manipulating input price in connivance with input seller, donate generously to religious charities and cultural events, visit regularly posh bars scattered across bureaucratic area and political hotspots where leaders and bureaucrats of all hues throng to have a peg and discuss potential projects and course of future politics, try to be in good book of social elites and law enforcement officials and intimidate your rivals with the aid of hooligans supplied by your political backers.

Recipe#9: be close with agencies that operate eavesdropping devices, use this relationship to spy on your rival in business and politics, sponsor personal events /trip of your "man/men" in armed forces or law enforcement agencies, make some of them your shadow partner via their relatives, buy commercial plot at crucial area where everyone else is leaving because of receding business, be part of a social movement so that you radiate an aura of changemaker, launch media outlet and pay the journalists lavishly, milk promising men-in-fatigue and law enforcement officials who will adorn key positions in future so that they cannot put obstacles in your future business ventures or political ambition, aim the mega projects or projects being financed by export credit, and make good use of your deep state connections by trying to be political party's accountant for bagging commission of projects financed by export credits.

Recipe#10: get membership of a political party (cadre based ones are even better), set up a philanthropic institution / orphanage/ seminary/charity, try to get foreign funds for your charity, reach out to foreign donors, convince them and fetch as much money as possible, start building some sort of infrastructure for your charity, aim wealthy retired foreign couples who have little knowledge on your country and countrymen, send pictures of some apartment building under construction and present it as your future charity house, do not send pictures of Sangsad Bhavan or Supreme Court as your charity house because these sites are well known in the cyber world, take some pictures at an orphanage, convince your would be donors that you really take care of these poor souls, be part of some cultural movement, pay visit to the place the cultural movement originated or the artist or the legend was born, set an organization named after that movement or legend, try to find out some foreign donors who are kindred spirits, squeeze as much fund as possible from these donors, do not provide your original address, invite them to visit Bangladesh to see the progress of projects they funded, show them some hoax sites or take them to the neighboring country and introduce them to some paid guys who will convince them that you are really a philanthropist and cultural connoisseur, get some paid awards from some hoax organization ( foreign ones will add more value),publicize your charity work and cultural programs in social media and little known news sites, and go for hiding for few months if you get caught in fraudulent activities and make sure you have good connections in ministry of foreign affairs because cheated foreign donors may approach foreign ministry to lodge complaints against you.

Recipe#11: get close to ruling party, grab license for a new bank, make every family member of your family director of the new bank, take loan from other bank to invest in the new bank, manage accounts or funds of public organizations, take loans from other banks using your bank director credential, launder the money abroad and become wilful defaulter.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(23 août --- 30 août)

Selon un reportage, un dirigeant du parti en exercice a été tué par balles par les Rouhingyas à Cox's Bazaar le vendredi. Ses voisins et fidèles ont vandalisé le camp de Rouhingya. Police a tué deux tueurs présumés.

Selon un reportage, l'armée de la terre a exercé des représailles contre les groupes de CHT après un soldat avait été tué par des opérateurs présumés de l'Arakan Army. Le 23 août elle a tué deux fidèles de UPDF. Le 26 août elle a tué 3 fidèles de même organisation. Selon un autre reportage, 64 personnes, dont 29 membre de UPDF et 21 membres de JSS , ont été tués à CHT en deux ans.

Selon un reportage, un conducteur de moto-partage a été tué brutalement sur le pont routier à Khilgaon, Dhaka. Police soupçonne que le passager l'a tué.
Selon un reportage, la force frontière de Bangladesh a appréhendé 4 soldats de la force frontière birmane depuis Bandarban.

Selon un reportage, des ouvriers de l'Akij ont manifesté pour leur arriéré à Sylhet.

Selon un reportage, des ouvriers d'atelier de confection ont bloqué les rues à Gazipur après un bus avait percuté un ouvrier.

Selon un reportage, un bus a quitté la route et basculé dans le trottoir à Banglamotor en tuant une salariée de BIWTA.

Selon un reportage, une vidéo est devenue virale dans la presse où l'on voit que des gens battent un migrant bangladais chez ambassade au Brunei.

Mon laptop est en panne et ça ne marche plus.