Some concerns about macro stability
Raise doubts about reserve's ability.
Ties overlooking national woes
Like guiding a ship without crews.
Let people know a deal’s nitty-gritty.
As Bangladesh faces serious concerns about growing budget deficit and the figure about forex reserve, government has started a negotiation with IMF team for a credit of $4.5 billion. Though balance of payment has been negative for two years,forex reserve is enough to meet the need of the country for 5 months.
But debate raged over government’s boasting of $35 billion reserve. Many keep saying reserve is much lower than the official claim. Government already used the reserve by lending some to commercial banks and Sri Lanka,financing the dredging work of Payra port,creating a new industrial fund. A total of $8 billion was used. Government keeps showing the spent part in the forex reserve. IMF insists that government discard the figure from reserve and portray the true reserve.
However, government’s gradualist policy has started to yield dividend. 50 basis points increase of policy rate and stern caution from the central bank about opening of LCs of goods deemed not urgent significantly reduced import.Meanwhile, depreciation of taka in the open market also played a role.But food inflation shows no sign to abate. Rather, a report says food import was lowest in 7 years(Source:"Rice,Wheat and Lentils:Food Grain Imports Lowest in Years",MasudMilad,Daily Prothom Alo,October 26,2022)1. But many here are optimistic that pledged delivery of food will happen in time and winter crop production will be good.
Strong dollar and depreciation of taka also get blame for rising food prices.But exporters and others criticized govt for managing the rate of taka which is lower than the market rate.
Following the discussion with IMF and the gradualist policy, another policy rate increase is likely. When policy rate rises there is a curb in money supply.It means Taka will appreciate in future. Rise in interest rate and appreciation of taka will block unnecessary spending.At the same time,it will give government a sigh of relief before import of food grain.
However,Pakistan's removal from FATF's grey list,depreciation of both Indian and Pakistani rupees,Russian support for Myanmar's apparel industry, and decision of Benin(third largest cotton exporter to Bangladesh) to set up export zone for RMG and textile factories augur ill for Bangladesh apparel industry(source:"Tular Bikolpo Bazaar Khujte Hobey Bangladeshke(Bangladesh Has To Find Alternative Cotton Market)",Nujhat Kamal,Ekhon,October 28,2022)2,which witnesses fall in exports in two consecutive months this year alone. Before any further policy rate hike,Bangladesh Bank should let Taka depreciate so that any later appreciation could at least ensure the Taka-Rupee exchange rate prevailed prior to the Ukraine war.
Bangladesh’s closeness with oil-richer countries and upcoming high profile visits of royals of gulf countries herald that macroeconomic stability may not be a concern. Bangladesh signed a military agreement with Qatar to send troops in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia is in talks with Bangladesh for similar agreement. In recent years,when Pakistan in crisis Saudis perked billions of dollars in Pak central bank on condition that Pakistan would send the money back in a notice of 72 hours and Pakistan would not use it elsewhere (Source:"Saudi Conditions ",Editorial,Dawn,November 30,2021)3.The artificially swollen reserve sent a positive signal about Pakistani rupee and prevented its wild fall.Qatar back in 2013/14,when Bangladesh sought first ECF to IMF,approached Bangladesh about perking some of its forex reserve in the central bank.If somewhat flexible arrangement is made this time coupled with more workers to gulf countries and concessional oil-gas , then balance of payment will be healthy again.
Difficult times lie ahead.High oil price is partly to blame. It is useless to make commitment if Bangladesh fails to gain something to address its macroeconomic concerns.
Notes and References:
- For more read https://en.prothomalo.com/business/local/qlftfspdcb
- For more see https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9034w1ByVgo
- For more read at https://www.dawn.com/news/1661100
[Update:This piece has been updated on November 01,2022 at 10:50 am and at 16:05 pm Bangladesh Standard Time. Updates include inclusion of key references.]
(22 octobre --- 28 octobre)
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
| Date |
Petit déjeuner |
Déjeuner |
Dîner |
Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures |
| 22 |
Pain tchapati,Omelette |
Riz,Ruhi,Crevettes,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles |
Riz,Ruhi,Crevettes,Papaye |
Nouilles, Lait |
| 23 |
Pain tchapati,Pommes de terre |
Riz,gourde calebasse |
Riz,gourde calebasse |
--- |
| 24 |
Pain tchapati,Omelette |
Riz,Cumin noir,Haricot vert-Eddoe-crevette sec,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles |
Paratha,Purée de pomme de terre,Cumin noir |
Nouilles,Lait |
| 25 |
Pain tchapati,Lentilles-Papaya |
Riz,Courge amère,Ruhi,Épinard malabar |
Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Épinard malabar,Ruhi |
Lait |
| 26
|
Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Omelette |
Riz,Courge amère,Papaye-Haricot vert,Soupe aux lentilles |
Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaye-Haricot vert |
--- |
| 27 |
Pain tchapati,Papaye-Haricot vert |
Riz,Gourde calebasses,Purée de banane verte |
Pain tchapati,Gourde calebasse |
Lait |
| 28
|
Paratha,Gourde calebasse |
Riz,Épinard,Ruhi,Courge amère-pommes de terre |
Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Courge amère-pommes de terre,Riz,Ruhi |
Lait |
Hungry people rally behind the queue,
Leaving the government with ideas few
How to fix the food security
To help the ones most needy
It is likely the crisis will brew. |
As commodity prices soar,a record in decades,sufferings and ordeals of ordinary people get worsened.More and more people struggle to queue behind govt ration.So far it is not clear how many managed to get a free ration card. But it appears govt has to widen its ongoing social security programs in order to accommodate more and more people in distress.
Government food security programs include Open Market Sale(OMS),Money for Work,Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGD),Govt Relief,and Employment Generation Program for Ultra Poor. March of hungry people left no choice but to widen the ongoing programs. In 2017-18,Tk 9470 crores were spent on various food security programs. A year later,in 2018-19,Tk 10457 crores were spent on such programs. In 2018-19, 12.1 million people were subject to OMS programs,costing govt TK 832 crores. Government allotted TK 1085.07 crores for VGD programs,1730.81 crores for VGF and TK 1650 crores for employment for ultra poor in 2018-19(Source: BER 2019).This year govt planned to feed 10 million poor households. Family card has been distributed by govt in this regard.A budget of Tk 5280 crores are also allotted. Card holder can avail maximum of 2 litres of soybean oil,2 Kgs of lentil,1 kg of sugar and 2 kgs of onion(Source: The Business Standard,October 22,2022).
When we were kids ,we used to see scenes like people waiting in queue for hours for flour,sugar and oil. Things have improved. But family card concept is invoking that old memories of bygone era. This is an indication how worst the hunger situation has become. In Global Hunger Index,Bangladesh’s position slipped to 84 from 76 out of 121 countries. Clearly, our vulnerability in ensuring food still prevails. Any volatility in oil and grain markets hits us hard.
This is government initiative. But any private initiative/effort is hard to find. In our neighboring cities like Kolkata,Jaipur,Lahore,Delhi,Karachi we see lots of private langars/ charities to feed the vulnerable or the hungry. Such community-led effort is needed here. We simply cannot let millions of people starve indefinitely. Platforms of businessmen and other professional bodies should step in to chalk out how to coordinate such charities across the country/ at least in key poverty pockets in some urban areas. This solidarity will only improve their public image.
Our cities by any standard do not qualify for a proper city. Even the Mughals installed resting places,water tanks,shower rooms for travellers who would make a brief stopover. Some of them were free. Even the concept of langars,which is pretty common in the subcontinent, is conspicuously absent here. To qualify for a proper city, Bangladeshi cities should build such urban facilities(We do not have proper public toilet and cheap taxi service)so that most of the city dwellers/ travellers can avail them.
As crisis knocks on our doors,we have to prove that we are better than the Mughals by starting some free langars across the city. Our development story will mock us if a single life is lost in the looming crisis.
(14 octobre --- 21 octobre)
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
| Date |
Petit déjeuner |
Déjeuner |
Dîner |
Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures |
| 15 |
Pain tchapati,Lait |
Riz,Radis,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles plat |
Pain tchapati,Ruhi,Radis,Soupe aux lentilles plat |
Riz gonflé |
| 16 |
Pain tchapati,Radis |
Riz,Ruhi,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Ruhi,Radis,Haricot vert,Soupe aux lentilles |
Pain tchapati,Haricot vert,Soupe aux lentilles |
--- |
| 17 |
Pain tchapati, Haricot vert |
Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Calebasse gourde,Haricot vert,Ruhi |
Pain tchapati,Purée de pomme de terre, Omelette |
Jhal mury |
| 18 |
Pain tchapati,Omelette |
Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Courge amère,Papaye-Citrouille,Soupe aux lentilles, Lait |
Pain tchapati,Papaye-Citrouille |
Jhal mury |
| 19 |
Pain tchapati,Papaye-Citrouille |
Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo, Calebasse gourde,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge |
Pain tchapati,Purée de pomme de terre, Omelette |
Riz gonflé, Lait |
| 20 |
Pain tchapati,Omelette,Calebasse gourde |
Riz,Radis-Puntio barbe,Gombo |
Pain tchapati,Radis,Gombo |
Riz gonflé, Lait |
| 21 |
Pain tchapati,Radis |
Riz,Épinard, Ruhi |
Nouilles
|
--- |
|
