What's In A Name?

Will is there,
Commitment is there,
What’s in a name?
Misadventure doesn’t sound fair,
Even if a crisis no one doesn’t really care.
Stick to the plan even when you get the blame.

A recent initiative by World Bank on helping the stateless Rohingyas has started fresh debate in Bangladesh about the international stand on Rohingya crisis. What is worrying hawkish ideas have reemerged in this debate. World Bank has recently chalked a policy framework to assist management of refugees in 16 countries. The “Refugee Policy Review Framework” drew a lot of criticism as many perceived it a framework to integrate the Rohingyas into Bangladesh in the long run. I have not read yet the framework ,so I abstain from making any comments on it. But Minister of Foreign Affairs strongly objected dubbing the Rohingyas as “refugees” and stressed on their “displaced population or Myanmar nationals” status.¹Too much reliance on multilateral bodies and failure to meet pledges in assisting the Rohingyas are the origins of these grievances. World Bank's country director clarified Bank’s position by saying that the framework aims to assist the “displaced Rohingya population “ until their return to their home,Myanmar¹ The criticism inundates despite the World Bank has clarified its position on the policy framework.

More recently ,Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent its own assessment report to the parliamentary standing committee on foreign relations. The report underscores that Rohingya assistance programs run by UN and Occidental countries could play a catalystic role to integrate the Rohingya in the country and hamper repatriation process². Instead of focusing on repatriation process, donor and UN agencies’ continuous stress on improving the livelihoods at the camps angers the authority. And proposals like land purchase, setting up businesses, job and access to education are deemed as means to rehabilitate the Rohingyas into Bangladeshi society that local policymakers and authority strongly oppose.

But the harshest criticism came from a former foreign secretary who in his opinion column for a daily, run by former editor of communist party paper, condemned the intentions of UN agencies and Occidental donors. In addition, he expressed his dissatisfaction for lack of leadership among the Rohingyas in the camps. He wrote:

”We have to acknowledge that this population needs leadership. There is some kind of leadership in the camps,unfortunately miscreants control it in connivance with local criminals. Foreign organizations and NGOs also put up an alternate leadership but it is loyal to them…Besides,a Pakistan-influenced leadership also exists and it may turn towards a dangerous course of action. Resurgence of Taliban in Afghanistan brings it again to the fore. Extreme ideologies are very popular among the Rohingya youth.Success of Taliban may stoke the fire of misadventure.

One of the failures of Bangladesh is not able to create a leadership that reflects Bangladesh’s desires in the camps.Time is not running out,urgent attention is required.

Lastly, what have the 1 million camp-dwelling Rohingyas done to go back to their homelands? They have to fight their own struggles and others can only assist them. No sign is there among them. Are they waiting for angels to send them back to their homeland? No such thing happened to ethnic groups who had been displaced for many reasons.

Following the assumption of power by Myanmar military, NLD and other small parties formed a coalition government. Many ethnic guerrilla groups joined them. But no one recognizes it, even Bangladesh does not recognize it. Bangladesh should not recognize it. But no recognition does not bar one to have contact with such government. Indirect contact could be set up and an understanding should be reached in a bid to resolve the Rohingya crisis. … this government pledged to resolve the Rohingya crisis, no matter how fragile that pledge is,Rohingyas should step forward. Not that every Rohingya will play an armed role,but could play the role of close confident.For the sake of long term interest,Bangladesh needs to play a role to make a close contact between Rohingya and NLD-led coalition government. Small investment could yield better harvest. Nothing guarantees resolving the crisis,but useless it is to miss the chances,be it big or small.”³

Earlier former military bureaucrats saw would-be suicide bombers lurking in the corners of Rohingya camps and drew a grim future for the region if Rohingya crisis remained unresolved. Even some drew parallel between independence struggle of Bangladesh and the Rohingya crisis,but there is a big difference between the two. Former foreign secretary’s concluding remarks slightly echoed that possibility of armed struggles by the Rohingyas. It is worrying that hawkish proposition is gradually gaining support.

I think Bangladesh should abstain from entertaining any armed misadventure to put an end to Rohingya crisis. It will not only harm images of Bangladesh,but will also engender our relationship with our neighbors. Pitfalls lie in such ideas could unsettle and undo any short term gains.Look at Pakistan. Despite being one of the victims of terrorism, its built-in image makes it a less trustworthy partner in international community.Its democratic institutions are in tatters as domestic and foreign policies were decided by others ignoring people’s representatives and the Parliament.

Bangladesh should not tread on that path as such steps may hurt our image and may ostracize us in international community. Moreover,we inked a bilateral deal with Myanmar regarding repatriation of the Rohingyas. Any misadventure may put on hold that process and cost us losing the Myanmar Army that has been in charge of running the country for the last six decades and may do so for the next six decades or so. They are the only powerful institution in that country and has considerable leverages on the country and people. Myanmar as a country is a delicate case in the region. China,Thailand and India all house thousands of ethnic Myanmar groups. But never support directly any armed struggles against the Tatmadaw. And the countries maintain good relations and help it militarily.

Back in April 19,2019, I wrote a piece titled “Stick To The Bilateral Agreement “, here on this site delineating fallout of growing insurgency inside Myanmar. Any chaos or multiple insurgencies in Myanmar is against the interest of Bangladesh. If the insurgency reaches its worst, ethnic groups may engage in fights for dominance. And soon Bangladesh may host another round of refugees.In the unruly Myanmar where Tatmadaw is severely weakened,its waters will become treacherous.

Incidents of piracy may spiral up in the waters through which Bangladesh does maritime trade with the rest of the world(Now risk has increased as couple of Bangladeshi companies’ container carriers transport goods between Chittagong and Malaysian and Singaporean ports).Our export and import may take a hit and inflationary pressure may make lives more difficult here. Clearly, our policy makers and strategic thinkers are not ready for this kind of reality⁴.

There has been a lot of developments in the Rakhine State. Relations between Arakan Army and Tatmadaw thawed and the former may join the government after the next election as promised by the Army-led interim govt. Bangladesh should not back any armed misadventure of Rohingya groups and NLD-led coalition govt. For humanitarian grounds Bangladesh may allow NLD activists to take refuge in the country and let them use it as a transit country to go abroad. This is what Bangladesh is doing for the Rohingyas.There is no wrong in helping another group of displaced Myanmar nationals. But Bangladesh should stay away from lending support to any fratricidal clashes inside Myanmar.

The prolonged nature of the Rohingya crisis makes WB's suggestion for access to education, setting up business, land purchase and access to credit more tenable. The measures will make them less vulnerable to the lures of evil quarters, will empower them and thereby will reduce the risks coming from the camp-dwelling Rohingyas.

Without any mainstream education and livelihood opportunities, there is a risk that they may fall victims of regimented groups by subscribing to non-mainstream education. It will make the Rohingya management much more difficult. No matter which sides of the border the Rohingyas reside in, educated Rohingyas will be true asset for both the countries.

I think the best way to mitigate the Rohingya crisis is to reach out all levels of civilian and military leadership in Myanmar and allow them to reap the benefits of Bangladesh economy. We have several special economic zones under construction and we can easily invite Myanmar investors to invest in these zones. Bangladesh can also modify its banking laws and allow FDI in setting up overseas banks so that Chinese community in Singapore or in Malaysia invest in those banks where Myanmar nationals can do banking with us. As the utility of our deep sea port,special economic zones and economy will grow over time,growing trade relations will play a conducive role in diffusing tensions and existing problems. We should not buy at face value the negative depiction of Tatmadaw in the western media. Despite the western embargoes on them,Bangladesh should allow them to invest in Bangladesh via proxies. Same hold true for other political stakeholders including NLD-led coalition govt. Economic leverage of Bangladesh will help to curb the incidence of drug and to speed up the process of repatriation of the Rohingyas. Container transport, IT and RMG are the areas where the joint ventures of both the countries can take shape. A joint container transport service between Chattogram and Singapore or other Asian ports will benefit both the countries. As the country faces ban, RMG exporters of Myanmar can relocate their factories in Bangladesh. In addition, Myanmar can join Bangladesh’s upcoming very own social media initiative and share its experience of operating a social media with VKontakte in Myanmar.There will be differences in opinions, different threat perceptions but this should not bar the countries to engage in trade and economic activities. Focusing on trade and development instead of cultivating ideas of misadventure holds the key to break the current impasse.

At the moment, it appears that new feud between political stakeholders may further delay the repatriation process. Bangladesh strongly opposes dubbing the Rovingyas “refugee” and insists on that they be called “displaced people”. Suggestions made by WB,which reiterates its commitment towards repatriation, pretty much reflects the reality in the ground. As long as will is there,as long as commitment is there, it is less important how you would like to call a problem. Instead of entertaining conspiracy theories and treading on wrong path towards misadventure, ordinary citizens expect Bangladesh will reaffirm its commitment towards an amicable solution to Rohingya crisis in this testing time.

Notes And References:

1 “Bangladesh Says World Bank's Refugee Framework Does Not Apply To ‘Displaced Rohingya'”,bdnews24.com,August 02,2021.Link here

2 “Rohingyader Sujog Subidha Simito Rakhar Prostab”,Daily Prothom Alo,August 13,2021.

3.”Rohingyader Jatigoto Shodhoner Pokkhe Bishwa Bank?(World Bank For Ethnic Cleansing Of The Rohingyas?)”,Towhid Hossain,Daily Prothom Alo,August 12,2021.

4 “Stick To The Bilateral Agreement “,Rezaul Hoque,April 19,2021. https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2019/04/stick-to-bilateral-agreement.html?m=1