Impact Of Fed's Policy Rate Cut At Home

More foreign credit amid Fed's policy rate cut Rejuvenates the economy burying the but.

The Federal Reserve has lowered the funds rate by 50 basis points, making it 4.83%. Back in July, China lowered the policy rate by 10 basis points, from 3.45% to 3.35%. This time the Chinese central bank decides to keep the policy rate same. It is indeed a good news for Bangladesh and its economic recovery. It means foreign goods will be cheaper; in particular, import of food grains in the wake of devastating flash flood will be less costlier. Consumer spending in the West will rise due to low cost of borrowing,resulting in more procurement of Bangladeshi RMG.

It is conducive to bring down the price levels. Both non-food and food items may result in lower prices. There is no restriction from Bangladesh Bank on LCs to import food and other necessary items. Moreover, duties on several items are also lowered. As Bangladesh Bank is pursuing a contractionary monetary policy, downward pressure on prices of non essential non-food items may be observed soon. In addition, constant rise in remittances and foreign credit is growing the forex reserve and making taka stable. So any pressure on inflation from further depreciation is not visible at the moment.

Moreover, police resuming their role and magistracy power given to the Army for the next 60 days are likely to improve the law & order situation by disrupting the extensive extortion network in the kitchen market. Inflationary situation is bound to improve in the next few months.

Back in June 11, I depicted a scenario for the private sector credit in the piece "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War III".Sharing parts of it:

Fed funds rate: Less than 5.33%
Chinese loan prime rate: Less than 3.45%
This is an ideal situation for economic recovery. Inflationary pressure will be less. Policy rate hike does not need to be prolonged. Economic recovery will be earlier than any other scenarios. Both the Western and Chinese credit will be available. Western consumption will increase,boosting Bangladeshi export. FDIs will rise.

When the piece was written it was assumed that private sector credit would be more than Taka 1517.21 billion. $ 250 million of World Bank's $1 billion credit will go for the SME sector. In addition, the US assistance of $250 million will also go for the private sector. So we are seeing more than Taka 500 billion coming to private sector this year. Moreover, government also lowers borrowing from the banks, making available further bank funds for the private sector. Recently, after more than 7 years ,publicity of consumer credits is appearing on the dailies. Brands are running special ads of their new products. Business sector confidence is back. It is indicating rejuvenation of the economy.

Both domestic and external factors are in favor of fast economic recovery. However, thwarting political uncertainty and maintaining a trouble free supply chain ensures better consumer activity.

References:

1. "Fed Slashes Interest Rates By Half Point, An Aggressive Start To Its First Easing Campaign In Four Years",Jeff Cox,CNBC,September 18,2024. Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-cuts-rates-september-2024-.html
2. "Macroeconomy Amid Trade War III",Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com, June 11,2024. Link: https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/06/macroeconomy-amid-trade-war-iii.html?m=1

Pessimism Deepens

Growth in major sectors stalls As trust in the economy falls.

Three months have passed since the new government resumed power. Many policy makers and administrators anticipated that economy would bounce back and show positivism after the election. Because many uncertainties will disappear and economic indicators will show some positive trends including the inflation.

As for the inflation,there is no good news. February inflation rate surpassed the January rate. March data has not seen the light yet. BBS may divulge the data after Eid perhaps. But coarse rice prices in general registered an increase of Taka 4/5 per kilo. Poultry meat,beef still remain out of reach to many households. Prices of water melon,date,lemon,brinjal and potato---which are quintessential items in iftar---did not give any sigh of relief to the fast-observing people. Press is abuzz with reports that potato traders pay Taka 33/kilo for the potatoes in the field, indicating higher prices for potatoes in future. In this backdrop,it is highly unlikely that inflationary situation will improve in the coming months.

World Bank in its economic updates for South Asian countries observes that persistent high inflation coupled with delay in market adjustment of exchange rate poses serious challenges to Bangladesh economy. It lowers GDP growth forecast to 5.6% for current fiscal year. It stresses on monetary and fiscal tightening and reliance on consumption and income taxes to improve the ongoing situation.

Gap between actual export earnings repatriated at the end of the year and export earnings reported during the time of order became wider. Last year, it stood at $ 9 billion! Last month ,a fraudulent app laundered Taka 4 billion to UAE, where many wealthy Bangladeshis applied for second home program. This indicates that trust deficit on the economy is growing and money laundering continues unabated.

Government's outstanding energy bill stood at Taka 200 billion. And government already issued bonds to pay energy subsidies. Key sectors like real estate,IT and stock market where investment of undocumented money is not questioned/probed have not seen any growth in these three months. Rather, stock market witnessed record fall,ruining many small individual investors. Flat and apartment sale data is not available. Rising interest rates along with rising cost of living makes it untenable to undertake new housing project. Growth in used apartment sale also stalls. NBR's revenue target forces it to review its policy of tax exemptions towards ICT sector. E-commerce platforms have not witnessed any major FDI. Rather, like PaperFly ,many are planning for closure or merger. Trouble-ridden ones are yet to settle their dues to the merchants and face overwhelming counts of lawsuits.

IMF has made it clear if Bangladesh Bank fails to meet the reserve target for March,then it may stall the third tranche of its $4.7 billion credit package. The need to finance the budget has become so acute that NBR quite rightly decided to tax Metro fare,unreasonably put high by the authority, but met unprecedented criticism from the power corridor. Meanwhile, development projects face peculiar fate over mismanagement and willful delay. Chinese financial institutions like Export-Import Bank of China have stopped funding Elevated Highway authority after it failed to project a clear deadline to end the construction work. Financing by local institutions also becomes difficult. To deal with the Non Performing Loans, authorities encourage merger between banks. Some see it positively,but others remain skeptic about the intended result. This is not sending positive signals to the market and economy. This is clear indication that pessimism is gripping the economy. And it may prolong the recovery.

Woe Called External Debt

As farcical election doubles external debt, Govt seeks loan to support budget.

Growing budget deficit has led the govt to seek assistance from IMF and World Bank. A news report says government is about to start a negotiation, scheduled to be held from July 12, with IMF for a soft loan of $4.5 billion amid a current account deficit of $15 billion. Govt is also planning to borrow interest free $1 billion from the World Bank. If the talk ends successfully then Bangladesh will be able to get $5.5 billion to check the budget deficit¹.

This is a clear indication that macroeconomic management is having some troubles. Govt put the blame squarely on the ongoing war on Ukraine and COVID-19. But the govt takes three assistance packages (if the current negotiation becomes successful) from IMF during its tenure. Back in 2012,govt took assistance from Extended Credit Facility.In 2020, it took another assistance as part of COVID-19 assistance program. So macroeconomic management is not in good shape long before the COVID.

On one hand, govt borrowed heavily to finance its ambitious budget. On the other hand,external debt has grown rapidly since it assumed power. The external debt has doubled in the last five years. It would be interesting to take a look at the size of external debt at the time a regime takes power and at the time of its departure,starting from 1991.In 1991 when BNP assumed power, external debt was $13 billion. In 1996,when it left the power,the external debt was $15 billion.In 1996,the time when AL came to power,external debt stood at $15 billion. In 2001,the time it stepped down,the debt rose to $17 billion. Then BNP again came to power. In 2006,when BNP left the office,external debt became $20 billion. In 2009,when AL formed the govt debt stock was still $20 billion. In 2014,at the end of third term of AL,it rose to $24.3 billion. At the end of 2018, after the completion of AL's fourth term ,debt stock became $38.5 billion.And in 2022(Feb) it became $55.6 billion².Bangladesh Bank stats put the figures very high. According to Bangladesh Bank,debt stock in 2022 is $89 billion.The debt has almost doubled in the last 5 years. And the last two terms of Awami League do not fall into the category of representative regime. And what we see here is that external debt stock rises rapidly under regime that is not truly representative of most of the people. One cannot be blamed if one can make statement that non-representative regime spends unwisely and borrows heavily as it has little or no accountability.

Regimes & External Debt Stock Since 1991

Regime	Starting Year	Debt At The Start($Billion)	Ending/Current* Year	Ending/Current Debt($Billion)
BNP	1991	13	1996	15
AL	1996	15	2001	17
BNP	2001	17	2006	20
AL	2009	20	2014	24.3
AL	2014	24.3	2019	38.5
AL	2019	38.5	2022*	55.6

(Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2019,2022)

External Debt(In Billion US Dollar)

	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21
External Debt	41.17	45.81	56.01	62.63	68.59	81.57

Source:Bangladesh Bank

Many here dislike drawing comparison between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Swollen Forex reserve is the source of their confidence. Now this latest round of negotiation amid growing current deficit will make their argument sound hollow.The kind of economic management in Bangladesh we are seeing forewarns us that things as usual may lead us to catastrophe.

Notes And References:

1. "Bangladesh Expects $5.5 Billion From WB,IMF In Budget Support”,Saifuddin Saif and Abul Kashem,Business Standard, June 29,2022. For more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/bangladesh-expects-55b-wb-imf-budget-support-449174
2. Bangladesh Economic Review 2022

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(24 juin --- 1 juillet)

Selon un reportage,le gouvernement a enfin ouvert le pont de Padma pour tout le monde. Mais,le chemin ferroviaire n'est pas encore mis en place.China Daily,une quotidien chinois,s'est dit que le pont de Padma est un projet de «Belt And Road Initiative».

Selon un reportage, police a arrêté un homme pour avoir dévissé un écrou de pont de Padma et dissiminé la vidéo dans tiktok.Selon un autre reportage, deux passagers ont été tués dans accident de moto sur le pont de Padma. Le gouvernement a interdit la moto sur le pont de Padma.Le gouvernement a déployé l'armée de la terre.

Selon un reportage, un ressortissant des États-Unis a enfin enterré dans une église de Gazipur après 4 ans de sa mort.Son cadavre a été préservé dans un congélateur d'un hôpital publique.Sa famille aux États-Unis l'a abandonné après il s'est marié avec une femme bangladaise.

Selon un reportage, une enseignante d'un groupe indigène a subi coup de couteau dans un campe de Rohingya à Cox's Bazar.L'agresseur a été identifié comme un Rohingya drogué.

Selon un reportage, environ 50 moineaux ont été empoisonnés à mort dans un champ de riz à Chandpur.

Selon un reportage,Bangladesh est classé 6ème parmi les pays dont les ressortissants ont demandé asile en Europe en 2021.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
25	Pain tchapati,Œuf à la coque,Molasse dur,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Papaya et pommes de terre,Pabdah poisson,Haricot vert,Soupe de Haricot mungo	Riz,Pabdah poisson,Nouilles	Nouilles,Thé sans sucre
26	Pain tchapati,Papaye et pommes de terre, Molasse dur, Thé sans sucre	Riz, Poisson séché avec graines de jacquier et gourde épineuse,Gourde serpent ,Batasio poisson avec pommes de terre,Soupe de lentilles	Riz battu au lait chaud	Riz gonflé et tchanatchur,Arachides, Thé sans sucre
27	Pain tchapati,Gourde serpent,Thé sans sucre	Pilaf,Batasio poisson avec pommes de terre,Œuf dur,Papaya-Pommes de terre-Calebasse gourde-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs	Riz gonflé, Papaya-Pommes de terre-Calebasse gourde-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs	Khir de riz,Thé sans sucre
28	Pain tchapati,Papaya-Pommes de terre-Calebasse gourde-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Citrouille, Haricot vert,Soupe de lentilles	Riz gonflé avec Poisson Pabdah et Citrouille	Khir de riz,Riz gonflé
29	Pain tchapati,Haricot vert,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuilles de patate douce,Tarpon indo-pacifique poisson,Gourde blanche,Soupe de lentilles et pois de chiches	Riz gonflé, Soupe de lentilles et pois de chiches, Feuilles de patate douce	Thé sans sucre
30	Pain tchapati(préparé par moi),Gourde blanche,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Gombo,Courge amère,Épinards malabar avec graines du jacquier et pommes de terre,Tarpon ibdo-pacifique poisson,Soupe de lentilles et pois de chiches	Pain tchapati(préparé par moi),Épinards malabar avec graines du jacquier et pommes de terre	Mangue,Niébé,Thé sans sucre
01	Pain tchapati,Gombo,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinard de buffle,Scribbled Goby poisson,Courge amère	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaye et pommes de terre	Niébé,Pois de chiches,Thé sans sucre

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(22 avril --- 29 avril)

Selon un reportage, gendarmerie maritime de Libye a secouru 600 migrant clandestin dont 500 Bangladais depuis un naufrage au large de côte libyenne le samedi. International Office For Migration les ont mis dans un lieu protégé en Libye.

Selon un reportage, la Banque Mondiale a prévenu que les prix de produits seraient élevés pour deux ans à cause de guerre de l’Ukraine.

Selon un reportage, administration de Chandpur a porté plainte contre un dirigeant du parti au pouvoir pour avoir emparé de terrain gouvernemental.

Commitment Or New Alley For Corruption?

Fighting global warming is not just the state's pledge,
Individual commitment is the best hedge.

As countries and various parties in Glasgow are at loggerhead to confine the rate of annual temperature rise to 1.5° celcius by the end of this century,there has been little sign of optimism that they will be able to do that. In the mean time, Bangladesh has chalked out a plan (Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC) to reduce carbon emission by 22% by 2030,higher than 7% of the goal set by Bangladesh back in 2015. The plan,submitted to United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change,envisages that Bangladesh will finance reduction of 6.73% carbon emission while the donors will finance the rest of its reduction commitment. Bangladesh requires $176 billion in this regard.^{1 & 2}

The commitment demonstrates Bangladesh’s eagerness in reducing carbon emission. However, Bangladesh’s past record in managing climate fund is not clean.Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) last year in a study found that 54% of the climate mitigation funds allotted to 7 projects were swindled and one of the culprit was secretary to a minister.³In addition, TIB in another study found 14% to 76% corruption in 4 climate change projects,with a budget of Tk 1,102 crores where Tk 191 crores were swindled.⁴

The outcome of foreign funded projects never ended with a happy note. Look at the status of Election Commission,Police and CHT region.UNDP led initiatives to reform electoral process of Bangladesh, modernization of Police and development of Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) brought only embarrassment to the stakeholders.UKAID and other donors mobilized resources so that the projects would meet the desired ends.The outcomes turned out to be costly for the nation. A controversial election was staged in 2018,Tk 4000 crores were misappropriated by a powerful state organ that contributes to UN peace mission in the name of introducing Electronic Voting Machine(EVM), a special hearing on human rights abuse by Police was held in Switzerland by an UN agency and an eruption of gun violence in CHT claiming lives of many indigenous leaders. This has been common trend of project financed by donors in Bangladesh.

And Bangladesh is replete with examples how such projects backfired. World Bank funded local governments like City Corporations ( Pourasava) and Zila Parishads through Bangladesh Municipal Development Fund(BMDF) so that they could become independent financially and accountable to local people. After a decade,it stopped funding in the project as hardly any of them showed any positive impact.⁵ Cox's Bazaar which could be the richest City Corporation of Bangladesh even sought Tk 26 crores to BMDF. Now look at the kind of people chaired these institutions. Borishal City Mayor and his disciples vandalized the city over a row with a bureaucrat. Secretary to Cumilla City Corporation was identified in taking part in vandalism during the Durgapuja. Disciples of Cox's Bazaar City mayor cut the city for 5-long hours from rest of Bangladesh and littered the streets with garbage after murder cases had been filed against him.

What is worrying illicit financial flow has also become a problem for the country. The figure continues to rise. Many donor countries often appointed their former ambassadors to Bangladesh to the Caribbean countries, offshore heaven of the world,and seldom integrated them back to Foreign Ministry. An indication of how they perceive Bangladesh. Last year,British govt even dissolved UKAid and merged it with Foreign and Commonwealth Office.⁶

Many argue that incidence of poverty increased in spite of the various safety net programs taken in the last couple of years.COVID-19 deteriorated the situation.That means over the years through various poverty alleviation measures,except micro credit, we failed to create a sustainable system of poverty alleviation. Micro credit institutions play crucial role to meet the working capital need of micro and small entrepreneurs. But resource mobilization and policy formulation are tasks of policy planners. And we see wrong policy and corruption often deprived the target population and derailed us from reaching the destination.

To me, fight against global warming is an individual one rather than a state-backed one.Individual can reduce carbon emission through his consumption and the way he or she lives the life. Eating less meat,consuming staple that requires less methane in the cultivation process, less dependence on fossil fuel,avoiding air-conditioned environment etc significantly improve one’s carbon emission footprint. The more conscious a nation is, the better will be its carbon footprint.Involving a corrupt state where there is lack of accountability into negotiations with perpetrators of worsening global warming is more like to play the role of a complice in a crime. Many govts may finance the pledges. But the corrupt institutions and agencies, often trained by these countries, did little to stop corruption in the disbursement and implementation of such funds. And through clandestine channels some of the misappropriated money ended up in foreign overseas banks. While one points donors’ failure to attain the goals, they will simply shrugged their responsibilities,telling the sum they paid over the years. Victim country will be double loser even if this is a simple grant because cost of $1 illicit outflow is more than receiving $1 legally. It is simply because one has to pay more taka to purchase $1 unofficially in a bid to launder it abroad. Victim country is the net loser in the sense it will face all the impacts of climate change and it cannot blame the perpetrators for not playing their roles. Even worst is that stolen money ends up in political campaign of powerful countries,dragging victim country into unwanted debate. The likelihood of which is higher than ever before.

Hydrocarbon business is booming. There is no short of investment. I am not against hydrocarbon business. Bangladesh is one of the countries that benefit a lot from this business as millions of its workers work in the Middle Eastern countries. But many find it hypocratic to call others to reduce carbon emission while engaging in activities that only increase the temperature. Without any course correction, insisting others for commitment only creates suspicion and distrust.

Notes And References :

1 “Bangladesh Pitches For Climate Sensitive Growth”,Kamran Reza Chowdhury,https://thethirdpole.net,October 25,2021 Link here

2 “Bangladesher Ucchovilashi Lokkho,Purone Chai 15 Lakh Koti Taka(‘Ambitious Goal’ of Bangladesh,Tk 15 Lakh Crores Required)”,Iftekhar Mahmud, Daily Prothom Alo,November 02,2021.

3 “TIB :Over 50% Climate Mitigation Funds Lost To Corruption, Mismanagement ”,Mehedi Al Amin,Dhaka Tribune,November 05,2020 Link here

4 “TIB Study : 14% to 76% Corruption Found In Climate Change Projects”,Sohel All Mamun,Dhaka Tribune, December 24,2021Link here

5 “Bishwabanker Rin Bondho,Sonkote Mayorra(World Bank Loan Stops,Mayors Are In Crisis) ”,Arifur Rahman,Daily Prothom Alo,August 11,2021 Link here

6 Department For International Development Link here

What's In A Name?

Will is there,
Commitment is there,
What’s in a name?
Misadventure doesn’t sound fair,
Even if a crisis no one doesn’t really care.
Stick to the plan even when you get the blame.

A recent initiative by World Bank on helping the stateless Rohingyas has started fresh debate in Bangladesh about the international stand on Rohingya crisis. What is worrying hawkish ideas have reemerged in this debate. World Bank has recently chalked a policy framework to assist management of refugees in 16 countries. The “Refugee Policy Review Framework” drew a lot of criticism as many perceived it a framework to integrate the Rohingyas into Bangladesh in the long run. I have not read yet the framework ,so I abstain from making any comments on it. But Minister of Foreign Affairs strongly objected dubbing the Rohingyas as “refugees” and stressed on their “displaced population or Myanmar nationals” status.¹Too much reliance on multilateral bodies and failure to meet pledges in assisting the Rohingyas are the origins of these grievances. World Bank's country director clarified Bank’s position by saying that the framework aims to assist the “displaced Rohingya population “ until their return to their home,Myanmar¹ The criticism inundates despite the World Bank has clarified its position on the policy framework.

More recently ,Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent its own assessment report to the parliamentary standing committee on foreign relations. The report underscores that Rohingya assistance programs run by UN and Occidental countries could play a catalystic role to integrate the Rohingya in the country and hamper repatriation process². Instead of focusing on repatriation process, donor and UN agencies’ continuous stress on improving the livelihoods at the camps angers the authority. And proposals like land purchase, setting up businesses, job and access to education are deemed as means to rehabilitate the Rohingyas into Bangladeshi society that local policymakers and authority strongly oppose.

But the harshest criticism came from a former foreign secretary who in his opinion column for a daily, run by former editor of communist party paper, condemned the intentions of UN agencies and Occidental donors. In addition, he expressed his dissatisfaction for lack of leadership among the Rohingyas in the camps. He wrote:

”We have to acknowledge that this population needs leadership. There is some kind of leadership in the camps,unfortunately miscreants control it in connivance with local criminals. Foreign organizations and NGOs also put up an alternate leadership but it is loyal to them…Besides,a Pakistan-influenced leadership also exists and it may turn towards a dangerous course of action. Resurgence of Taliban in Afghanistan brings it again to the fore. Extreme ideologies are very popular among the Rohingya youth.Success of Taliban may stoke the fire of misadventure.

One of the failures of Bangladesh is not able to create a leadership that reflects Bangladesh’s desires in the camps.Time is not running out,urgent attention is required.

Lastly, what have the 1 million camp-dwelling Rohingyas done to go back to their homelands? They have to fight their own struggles and others can only assist them. No sign is there among them. Are they waiting for angels to send them back to their homeland? No such thing happened to ethnic groups who had been displaced for many reasons.

Following the assumption of power by Myanmar military, NLD and other small parties formed a coalition government. Many ethnic guerrilla groups joined them. But no one recognizes it, even Bangladesh does not recognize it. Bangladesh should not recognize it. But no recognition does not bar one to have contact with such government. Indirect contact could be set up and an understanding should be reached in a bid to resolve the Rohingya crisis. … this government pledged to resolve the Rohingya crisis, no matter how fragile that pledge is,Rohingyas should step forward. Not that every Rohingya will play an armed role,but could play the role of close confident.For the sake of long term interest,Bangladesh needs to play a role to make a close contact between Rohingya and NLD-led coalition government. Small investment could yield better harvest. Nothing guarantees resolving the crisis,but useless it is to miss the chances,be it big or small.”³

Earlier former military bureaucrats saw would-be suicide bombers lurking in the corners of Rohingya camps and drew a grim future for the region if Rohingya crisis remained unresolved. Even some drew parallel between independence struggle of Bangladesh and the Rohingya crisis,but there is a big difference between the two. Former foreign secretary’s concluding remarks slightly echoed that possibility of armed struggles by the Rohingyas. It is worrying that hawkish proposition is gradually gaining support.

I think Bangladesh should abstain from entertaining any armed misadventure to put an end to Rohingya crisis. It will not only harm images of Bangladesh,but will also engender our relationship with our neighbors. Pitfalls lie in such ideas could unsettle and undo any short term gains.Look at Pakistan. Despite being one of the victims of terrorism, its built-in image makes it a less trustworthy partner in international community.Its democratic institutions are in tatters as domestic and foreign policies were decided by others ignoring people’s representatives and the Parliament.

Bangladesh should not tread on that path as such steps may hurt our image and may ostracize us in international community. Moreover,we inked a bilateral deal with Myanmar regarding repatriation of the Rohingyas. Any misadventure may put on hold that process and cost us losing the Myanmar Army that has been in charge of running the country for the last six decades and may do so for the next six decades or so. They are the only powerful institution in that country and has considerable leverages on the country and people. Myanmar as a country is a delicate case in the region. China,Thailand and India all house thousands of ethnic Myanmar groups. But never support directly any armed struggles against the Tatmadaw. And the countries maintain good relations and help it militarily.

Back in April 19,2019, I wrote a piece titled “Stick To The Bilateral Agreement “, here on this site delineating fallout of growing insurgency inside Myanmar. Any chaos or multiple insurgencies in Myanmar is against the interest of Bangladesh. If the insurgency reaches its worst, ethnic groups may engage in fights for dominance. And soon Bangladesh may host another round of refugees.In the unruly Myanmar where Tatmadaw is severely weakened,its waters will become treacherous.

Incidents of piracy may spiral up in the waters through which Bangladesh does maritime trade with the rest of the world(Now risk has increased as couple of Bangladeshi companies’ container carriers transport goods between Chittagong and Malaysian and Singaporean ports).Our export and import may take a hit and inflationary pressure may make lives more difficult here. Clearly, our policy makers and strategic thinkers are not ready for this kind of reality⁴.

There has been a lot of developments in the Rakhine State. Relations between Arakan Army and Tatmadaw thawed and the former may join the government after the next election as promised by the Army-led interim govt. Bangladesh should not back any armed misadventure of Rohingya groups and NLD-led coalition govt. For humanitarian grounds Bangladesh may allow NLD activists to take refuge in the country and let them use it as a transit country to go abroad. This is what Bangladesh is doing for the Rohingyas.There is no wrong in helping another group of displaced Myanmar nationals. But Bangladesh should stay away from lending support to any fratricidal clashes inside Myanmar.

The prolonged nature of the Rohingya crisis makes WB's suggestion for access to education, setting up business, land purchase and access to credit more tenable. The measures will make them less vulnerable to the lures of evil quarters, will empower them and thereby will reduce the risks coming from the camp-dwelling Rohingyas.

Without any mainstream education and livelihood opportunities, there is a risk that they may fall victims of regimented groups by subscribing to non-mainstream education. It will make the Rohingya management much more difficult. No matter which sides of the border the Rohingyas reside in, educated Rohingyas will be true asset for both the countries.

I think the best way to mitigate the Rohingya crisis is to reach out all levels of civilian and military leadership in Myanmar and allow them to reap the benefits of Bangladesh economy. We have several special economic zones under construction and we can easily invite Myanmar investors to invest in these zones. Bangladesh can also modify its banking laws and allow FDI in setting up overseas banks so that Chinese community in Singapore or in Malaysia invest in those banks where Myanmar nationals can do banking with us. As the utility of our deep sea port,special economic zones and economy will grow over time,growing trade relations will play a conducive role in diffusing tensions and existing problems. We should not buy at face value the negative depiction of Tatmadaw in the western media. Despite the western embargoes on them,Bangladesh should allow them to invest in Bangladesh via proxies. Same hold true for other political stakeholders including NLD-led coalition govt. Economic leverage of Bangladesh will help to curb the incidence of drug and to speed up the process of repatriation of the Rohingyas. Container transport, IT and RMG are the areas where the joint ventures of both the countries can take shape. A joint container transport service between Chattogram and Singapore or other Asian ports will benefit both the countries. As the country faces ban, RMG exporters of Myanmar can relocate their factories in Bangladesh. In addition, Myanmar can join Bangladesh’s upcoming very own social media initiative and share its experience of operating a social media with VKontakte in Myanmar.There will be differences in opinions, different threat perceptions but this should not bar the countries to engage in trade and economic activities. Focusing on trade and development instead of cultivating ideas of misadventure holds the key to break the current impasse.

At the moment, it appears that new feud between political stakeholders may further delay the repatriation process. Bangladesh strongly opposes dubbing the Rovingyas “refugee” and insists on that they be called “displaced people”. Suggestions made by WB,which reiterates its commitment towards repatriation, pretty much reflects the reality in the ground. As long as will is there,as long as commitment is there, it is less important how you would like to call a problem. Instead of entertaining conspiracy theories and treading on wrong path towards misadventure, ordinary citizens expect Bangladesh will reaffirm its commitment towards an amicable solution to Rohingya crisis in this testing time.

Notes And References:

1 “Bangladesh Says World Bank's Refugee Framework Does Not Apply To ‘Displaced Rohingya'”,bdnews24.com,August 02,2021.Link here

2 “Rohingyader Sujog Subidha Simito Rakhar Prostab”,Daily Prothom Alo,August 13,2021.

3.”Rohingyader Jatigoto Shodhoner Pokkhe Bishwa Bank?(World Bank For Ethnic Cleansing Of The Rohingyas?)”,Towhid Hossain,Daily Prothom Alo,August 12,2021.

4 “Stick To The Bilateral Agreement “,Rezaul Hoque,April 19,2021. https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2019/04/stick-to-bilateral-agreement.html?m=1

Exodus And Awareness

Eid vacation sees mass exodus to village
Taking precarious mean and mocking restriction message.
Lack of awareness and poor preparation
May make severe the next propagation.

Every year during Eid vacation there is mass exodus to villages from the big cities where millions of people dwell in uninhabitable conditions. Pandemic made it a bit difficult this year. As part of ongoing lockdown, government interdicted transport movement between cities. Government's plan to spend the Eid vacation at current location fell on deaf years. Images of people thronging in ferry ghats and huddling in ferries mocked the restrictions and awareness of people.

A news report revealed that 2.8 million people left Dhaka for Eid vacation till May 10.¹ Despite the restrictions and low traffic, many took little known routes and precarious mode of transportation to reach their desired destination. But on some occasions they were hoisted by their own petard.Between April 02 and April 09, just before introducing harder lockdown, a boat capsize near Narayanganj killed 35 persons. It had been killed by cargo vessel belonging to a ruling party MP. Passengers had been trying to go to southern districts before strict lockdown came into effect.

On May 03, a motorized boat carrying 26 passengers sank in Padma after hitting a bulkhead near Munshiganj at Shimulia ghat. All the 26 passengers, on their way to villages, were dead. Later it turned out that an untrained and addicted boy was steering the boat. On May 12, another tragedy struck at Banglabazar ghat in Madaripur. Stampede in an overcrowded ferry killed 5 passengers².

Lax oversight of restrictions contributed to this exodus and subsequent tragedies. What was worst many village-bound people paid couple of times more than the usual cost of leaving Dhaka. Motorbike service providers witnessed windfall gains. Though government deployed paramilitary forces at highways and ferry crossings, they did not prevent people leaving Dhaka.

Meanwhile, Department of Health announced that Indian variant had already been found in Bangladesh. There is fear that the variant may spread after Eid. And another wave of Dhaka-bound people will make the matter worse. So government is contemplating stringent restrictions after Eid.

A good number of people left Dhaka work in informal sector and live in shanties or coshare rooms in apartments of Dhaka. Those running the country should take fair part of the blame as politically blessed quarter is responsible for setting up illegal bazars and shanties across the big cities. Monthly payments they receive from these settlements and footpaths are astronomical. Amid propagation of Corona virus, this kind of business went on as usual.

Absence of non-farm work opportunities and higher wages in informal sector played a role in driving many villagers to settle in Dhaka.

This only increased the chance of spreading Corona virus in Bangladesh. While government imposed lockdown, it did little to start mass awareness campaign. It closed schools, shopping malls but let open markets, restaurants and bazars on footpaths.

Television channels, radio stations and social media platforms could have been used to broadcast awareness programs. Except government-run television channel and radio station, I did not see any government sponsored awareness programs on private TV and radio stations.

In a country like ours where society is agrarian and semi-literate, this kind of awareness program has immense value. High awareness level could easily curb spread of this deadly virus. From our past experience, we witnessed how this sort of promotional videos improved hygiene situation in the country.

As the US stopped supplying messenger of COVID-19 vaccine to Seram Institute of India, vaccination program in Bangladesh came to a halt. Government made significant progress in terms of purchasing vaccine from other sources. However, conditions attached to the loan provided by ADB and World Bank stressed that money should only be spent for purchase of WHO approved vaccine³. Conditions set by Sputnik-V producer also made the prospect of buying Russian vaccine bleaker.

However, private pharmaceutical companies can step forward and produce the vaccine at home. Government will be relieved as it will have to borrow less for mass vaccination if 10 million or more people get vaccine from private sources.

Luckily, Sinopharma's vaccine got WHO's approval. And 500, 000 ampules of vaccine were given as g.

But government's preparation for another wave of COVID-19 is deeply worrying. Last year a plan conceived to turn a Dhaka North City Corporation market into a COVID-19 hospital did not get off the ground in time. It was delayed by a year and when the press was abuzz with second wave in India, it was officially launched. Even private sector is less shy to come forward in aiding the government in its pandemic handling initiatives. Last year at least several conglomerates set up specialized centers to treat Covid patients. One can hardly spot any this year when the situation may turn more dire than previous year.

In addition, no simulation operation or contingency plan is taken from the part of government if a situation like India crops up here. In such a situation there may be dearth of care givers. So far I have not yet seen any increase in number of care givers. Additional care givers may be drawn from scouts, volunteer groups or militia like Ansar and VDP. If they are exposed to a little bit of training , they may turn out to be handy in times of need.

Exodus management and preparation of COVID-19 show government is depending on mercy of God. After Eid vacation when restrictions will be eased, daily wage earners will rush to Dhaka and other big cities. As the fear of another wave looms large, speeding up the vaccination program in crowded cities appears to be the pragmatic solution at the moment.

-----------------------------------------------

Notes And References:

1. Dhaka Cherechhe 28 Lakh Manush(28 Lakh People Have Left Dhaka),a news report by Daily Prothom Alo, May 11,2021.

2. A news report by bdnews24.com on the tragic speed boat crash. https://m.bdnews24.com/samagrabangladesh/detail/home/1889826

3. Russia'r Tika Kena Baron(Russian Vaccine Cannot Be Purchased), a news report by Daily Prothom Alo, May 12.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(09 avril --- 16 avril)

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a imposé confinement strict à partir du 14 avril pour une semaine. Le seuil de mort a franchi 10.000. Il y a une crise de lit de réanimation dans les hôpitaux privés.

Selon un reportage, le système d'oxygène et 300 respirateurs gardent dans un entrepôt à l'aéroport de Dacca il y a 10 mois. Le ministère de la Santé n'a pas montré intérêt à les recevoir. La Banque mondiale et la Banque asienne du développement ont financé leurs achats.

Selon un reportage, envoyé spécial sur climat de président américain a opposé la construction d'une centrale charbonnière à Sundarbans, une mangrove sans pareille dans le monde.

Selon un reportage, cadavres de deux baleines se sont trouvés dans la plage de Cox's Bazar. Les scientifiques les ont identifiées comme espèce de «Brides Whale».

Financing The Vaccination Program

Poor record in project implementation
Worsens trouble of hospitalization.
As banks lie on idle money,
Vaccination does not need foreign penny.

As another wave of COVID-19 spreads across the country, average daily detection reaches more than 5000. Bangladesh imposed a relaxed restriction, which was opposed by petty businessmen and others. Bangladesh started its vaccination campaign from February 08. Development partners and other organizations provided soft credits to finance its vaccination program. Recently, government sought another $500 million from World Bank to finance its ongoing vaccination program (Source:https://abnews24.com/economy/124639).

Bangladesh is one of the few countries that started its vaccination program pretty early. Financial support to vaccination program came in thick and fast. But Bangladesh did pretty bad when it comes to utilization of resources in improving health facilities. In addition, corruption in implementing projects is a major encumbrance in attaining project goals.

Take for instance, installation of centralized oxygen system in key hospitals across the country.A news report says only 38 hospitals got such fully-fledged system among 79 hospitals (Source: Daily Prothom Alo, April 02,2021). UNICEF is implementing installation of oxygen system in 30 such hospitals. The World Bank financed project was delayed as Health Department took a long time clearing the project.UNICEF hopes to implement it by June.

Supplying uninterrupted oxygen to critically ill patients is vital when most of the ICU beds in Dhaka are filled. But delay in decision making cast shadow over its timely implementation.

This delay may not be deliberate but exposes the work culture here. This project is to some extent luckier than others. There are projects where fund has been swindled away without making any real progress in implementation.

A news report says two contractors of Chattogram City Corporation (CCC) swindled Tk 330 million without doing any work (Source: Daily Prothom Alo, April 04,2021). CCC awarded contracts of developing a link road leading to port and construction of a new road near Mohesh canal to two contractors identified as Rana Builders and Rana Builders-Saleh Ahmed. The two contractors took loan from UCB bank and the contract laid out that project payment would be deposited at their bank account. They earlier had taken Tk 80 million and later managed to get a cheque of Tk 250 million from CCC, violating rules of the contract. Project work came to a complete halt since then. They have not furnished any explanation on no progress in the work. The project is being financed by JICA.

Another news report says two newly built public installations --- Postal Building and National Science and Technology Complex ---have not yet been inaugurated in spite of the fact that they were completed two years ago at a cost of Tk 94 crore and Tk 314 crore respectively (Source: Daily Prothom Alo, April 03,2021). Government is counting money in maintaing the two building and their older premises that the occupants are reluctant to vacate in the fear of losing previous real estate and to take the hassle to go to a place far away from the secretariat.

The incidents are eye-opener and lay bare how public money is being wasted in Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Bangladesh is borrowing from abroad to finance mass vaccination. A World Bank estimates show to finance 70% of total population, Bangladesh will need to spend between $1.17 and $1.92 billion (Source: Daily Prothom Alo, April 06,2021).

Bangladesh's economy is in good shape so it can afford borrowing from abroad to vaccinate a large part of its population. But our external debt is also piling up. In 2015 , our external debt was $37.27 billion and debt per head was $236.04. In 2020, external debt rose to $65.27 billion and debt per head was $389.53 (Source: Bangladesh Bank).

Gradual pile up is still not biting us but it is steadily increasing. Fall in export earnings led to widening of trade deficit, which stood at $11.79 billion in 2020-21(July-Feb). Riding on remittances our Forex reserve continues to rise. But our traditional remittance sources are not stable in the face of regional and energy challenges. This pandemic also exposes it when oil price fell below a threshold level. It is a good sign that we are optimistic about our remittance sources. But we do not how long we will remain optimistic about it. So it appears that we are little bothered to take decision on spending between $1.17 and $1.92 billion on vaccination. A remarkable development took place in our banks during pandemic when government allowed legalizing undocumented money. Bank deposits reached Tk 13 trillion. Government could go for domestic borrowing for vaccination program in a bid to ease our external debt. Since we are not honest in spending public money and implementing projects, it is far better to spend from our own resources rather than paying interest and loans over a long stretch of time.

Connecting Communities

Vandalism emasculates connectivity zeal.
Destroyed stations mean waste of taxpayers' bill.
Showing respect and holistic development plan
Unlock potentials that only connectivity can.

Bangladesh celebrated its 50th independence day. There was no short of jubilations, greetings and messages from world leaders. Despite the rising cases of COVID-19, cultural programs took place as planned. Participation of heads of states and representatives of neighboring countries elevated the celebration of 50th anniversary to a new level, reiterating commitment towards a strong regional connectivity.

Unfortunately, the celebration was marred by agitation of a dogmatic group, resulted in loss of 5 lives. In Chattogram, a police station was attacked and in Brahmanbaria, a rail station was vandalized. Everyone has right to protest. But in the name of protest, loss of lives and destruction of public property did not present us to the world as civilized nation. This incident, in fact, ridiculed our independence day and reminded us that we have to go a long way in terms of human development. Look at the reason for vandalism: a neighboring country's PM whose party's some past remarks offended a section of Bangladeshis would come to attend independence day celebration and Bangabandhu's 100th birth anniversary and the dogmatic group decided to oppose it. An individual or group has right to express feelings in a democracy. But there should be a civilized way. Holding a press conference, sending a press release or forming a human-chain in front of presspeople could have been civilized way of demonstration. But causing mayhem and destruction to public property could not be called sign of sane and just behavior.

Long before this anarchy, a certain section was calling into question the decision to invite PM Modi, the former Gujarat chief minister. Negative impression made by media trials etched in the memories of people for years. None probed who wielded power in the central back then.

Over the last one decade, a remarkable change has taken place in India. Nationalism driven by ethos of dominant faith group is becoming predominant in every aspects of Indian lives. It is a fact that we have to acknowledge. Modi embodies the ethos. From humble background, his ascension to power sounds like legend. He remains shining example of empowerment of the Have-nots of India.He proved his mettle in Gujarat where most Muslims, unlike any other Indian states, enjoy better life and livelihood opportunities. This holds true for Indian states where BJP and their allies formed government. Look at Maharashtra or Karnataka. Muslims in theses states are highly educated, wealthier than those in other states. And they are not fleeing in droves abroad or to other Indian states. It means their development agenda and policies are holistic and not biased towards a particular community.

Indian state of Tripura is the latest example of this manifestation. Once backward and forgotten, Tripura now witnesses infrastructural boom and frontier district's Muslim villagers have been freed from contract -farming of cannabis. Years down the line decent livelihood opportunities await for all Tripura residents.

As Bangladesh turned 50, regional connectivity and cooperation echoed in the messages and speeches of leaders of this region. Being the big country of this subcontinent, no scheme would come to fruition without the right kind of support from India. And the group Modi represents holds significant leverage in power corridor, politics, security establishment, corporate India, strategic community and society in India. Unless the group throws its weight around any regional connectivity plan, it will be difficult for the countries to connect the region and accelerate economic activities.

During his stay in Bangladesh, Modi paid visit and offered prayers to two ancient temples: one in Satkhira dated back to the era of Lakshman Sen and the other one in Gopalganj belonging to a community known as "Motua" who holds considerable influence in the politics of West Bengal and other Indian states. There is no doubt after Modiji's visit the two ancient temples will draw bigger crowds in the coming years. Time has come that Bangladesh embarks on a campaign to attract foreign tourists in these sites.

Similarly, Bangladesh government could offer land to spiritual group Modiji represents to set up an institution that will spread the ethos, teachings and the concept of "Hindutya" or "India" to people representing other faith groups.

Bangladesh could be the ideal place for such institution for two reasons. First, Bangladesh is a Muslim majority country and the Muslims are presented in the media as rival to the spiritual group. People from all around the world subscribe to this institution and get an idea of their lessons and visions. Second, it will help removing any ambiguity and dispel propaganda about their pacific beliefs. Bangladesh will have advantage making lasting bond with this group.

Moreover, India shows respect and attaches great importance to the relationship with Bangladesh. In recent years, envoys sent by India as High Commissioners to Bangladesh rose to superior positions in the country's Foreign Ministry. From those positions, they hold leverage to clear and implement any initiative that will bring the countries closer and improve common people's lives. Except few other countries, no other countries show this kind of respect towards Bangladesh.

In that light, inviting Modiji in the celebration of Independence day was right and judicious one. His presence not only bolstered ties but paved the paths for trouble-free future cooperation. Recently World Bank did a study and revealed that regional connectivity would augment Bangladesh's GDP by 17% and India's by 7%. While other nations collaborate on sending missions to Mars and moon and production on vaccine, our region could not emerge from poverty,communal hatred, ignorance, corruption and parochialism.Trivial issues still lead to spilling of blood and destruction of property. These are encumbrances towards forming a common market. The incidents in Dhaka, Chattogram and Brahmanbaria ashamed us. It reminded us that we have to walk hard to connect the region.

Germans and French fought long wars. Within few decades after second World War, they got over their bitterness and hostility and took the lead to form a European common market. Recent vandalism exposes weakness in our societies. Developing human capital is as important as investment in manufacturing or infrastructure. We only need unremitting commitment.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

Selon un reportage, Facebook a déposé plainte contre une société bangladaise pour avoir mené un site au Bangladesh en falsifiant la marque de Facebook.

Selon un reportage, un cambriolage s'est déroulé dans une banque publique à Chuadanga. Les cambrioleurs sont arrivés à voler Tk 500.000 depuis la banque.

Selon un reportage, le site statistique Worldometers est classé Bangladesh 5ème parmi les pays de l'Asie où plus de cas de covid-19 ont été enregistrés.

Selon un reportage, des ouvrières d'un atelier de confection se sont insurgées contre l'autorité d' atelier en Jordanie. Elles demandent revalorisation leurs salaires. Cadavre d'une ouvrière à côté de la rue a provoqué la manifestation.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a donné Tk 59,06 milliards à 390 villages pour refaire les rues endommagées par inondations fréquentes, pluies torrentielles. Bangladesh a connu assez inondations et pluies torrentielles dans l'année actuelle.

Selon un reportage, la force élite bangladaise a appréhendé un homme pour avoir menacé de tuer vedette cricketeur Sakib al Hasan. Sakib a récemment participé à une soirée de prière dans un temple de Kali à Kolkata, ville indienne avoisinant de Bangladesh. La personne fanatique a menacé le cricketeur de tuer en montrant une machette dans une vidéo diffusée dans son compte de Facebook.

Selon un reportage, le parlement bangladais a dit oui à projet de loi qui augmente la peine encourue pour viol à mort.

Selon un autre reportage,une cour bangladaise a condamné une personne à prison à vie pour avoir violé une universitaire en janvier cette année.

Selon un reportage, un couple américain, originaire du Bangladesh, ont été appréhendé par police pour avoir financé deux djihadistes de Daech.

Selon un reportage, Facebook a déposé plainte contre une société bangladaise pour avoir mené un site au Bangladesh en falsifiant la marque de Facebook.

La Semaine Derniere A Mes Yeux

(10 avril --- 17 avril)

Selon un reportage, la Banque mondiale s’attend à repli 3% du PIB bangladais. Le minister des Finances s’est insurgé contre la projection. Le Fond monétaire international a baissé la croissance du PIB bangladais. Il attend 2% du PIB l’année prochaine.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement arête l’opération de vendre denrées de première nécessité à Tk10/kilo. Le dispositive alimentaire a été mis en place pour nourrir les pauvres. Mais corruption et la risqué de contamination a cause assez de polémique dans la presse.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a dévoilé un plan de versement de Tk 50 milliards pour aider agroalimentaires, laitiers, aviculteurs et fruitiers.

Selon un reportage, le renseignement afghan a arête deux djihadistes de Daech, don’t un Bangladais. Il s’occupait de l’informatique de IS Khurasan.

Selon un reportage, les ouvriers d’atelier de confection sont descendus dans la rue pour manifester licenciement à cause de coronavirus. Presque 10.000 ouvriers ont perdu leur boulot face au coronavirus.

Selon un reportage, la société Suisse de fabriquant de ciment Holcim a fermé son bureau au Bangladesh pour coronavirus.

Selon un reportage, la police et soldats de l’armée de la mer ont secouru un bateau plein de Rohingya . Le bateau a tenté de traverser la mer pour Malaisie. Mais Malaisie et puis Birmanie ont repoussé le bateau vers Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, petit-à-petit coronavirus propage à travers de Bangladesh. Jusqu’au vendredi 1838 Bangladais ont été détectés avec coronavirus. &5 personnes ont succombés à la mort.

J’ai du mal à recharger la batterie de mon portable. Ça fait plusieurs jours qu’elle meurt. Avant mon portable comportait bizarrement. Quelquefois il s’élevait lui-même. Quand batterie était pleine, je ne pouvait pas le recharger encore. Je crois que mon portable est tombé victim de hacking.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(5 juillet --- 12 juillet)

Selon un reportage, Dengue s’est declaré dans tout le pays. Il y a 1016 victimes identifiés dans la première semaine de juillet. Le pays témoigne le plus de victmes en juin dans les dernières 4 années. Dans son étude ICDDR,B, le pesticide a échoué à tuer le moustique pour provoquer Dengue.

Selon un reportage, glissement de terrain a tué 4 personnes à Chattogram. Pluie incessante a inondé toute la ville.

Selon un reportage, un train a percuté un camion qui a bloqué son chemin à Gazipur, en tuant 2 personnes.

Selon un reportage, la mairie de Dhaka nord a annulé la décision d'interdire rickshaw dans les rues principales de Dhaka. La mairie de Dhaka sud n'a pas envie de changer sa décision.

Selon un reportage, des chercheurs de l'université de Dhaka a trouvé ingrédient antibiotique dans les produits laitiers fabriqués par les sociétés bangladaises.

Selon un reportage, les pluies torrentielles posent risque d'inonder tout le pays.Plusieurs fleuves ont franchi le seuil de danger.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a coupé bandwidth de deux opérateurs de service portable après les deux avaient échoué de payer leurs impôts arriérés. Les deux veulent résoudre les différences avec le gouvernement hors de la cour.

Selon un reportage, un home massacré trois personnes à Cumilla. Il était en colère avec sa femme. Les villageois l’ont battu sévèrement , provoquant sa mort.

Selon un reportage, l’ancien chef de l’ONU, le président des Îles Marshall , la reine de l’Hollonde , et chef de la Banque mondiale sont venus au Bangladesh dans visite officielle.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(8 mars --- 15 mars)

Selon un reportage, deux ministres et une député se sont dit que leurs pages et comptes de Facebook étaient piratés. Ils ont déposé plaintes à la gendarmerie à ce propos.

Selon un reportage, la Banque mondiale a donné son aval à une proposition de donner Tk 14 milliards aux Rohingyas. Le comité exécutif de la Banque a fait la décision pour aider les Rohingyas en détresse.

Selon un reportage, la police afghane a contacté le gouvernement bangladais afin de renvoyer une femme de djihadiste tué au Afghanistan. Le ministère des Affaires étrangères a demandé au ministère de l'Intérieur de vérifier identité de cette femme.

Selon un reportage, le ministre des Affaires étrangères s'est dit que Bangladesh n'avait pas signé accord sur coopération dans défense avec l'Arabie saoudite. Dans le parlement, il a dit que c'était plutôt un mémorandum qui ne stipule pas d'obligation.

Selon un reportage, la banque philippine RCBC a accusé la Banque centrale de Bangladesh Bank pour avoir calomnié sa réputation en déposant plainte contre elle dans une cour de New York aux États-Unis. De plus, RCBC a déposé une plainte contre Bangladesh Bank aux Philippines en demandant $1,9 millions dommages et intérêts.

Selon un reportage, le ministère de l'intérieur a conclu son enquête sur incendie mystérieuse dans un entrepôt clandestin de parfum faux, se situait au deuxième étage de Wahid Mansion, à vieux Dhaka. L'enquête a divulgué que le entrepôt était issu de l'incendie.

Selon un reportage, US State Department a critiqué la dernière élection générale de Bangladesh. Il a exprimé souci pour détérioration des droit de l'homme et obstruction dans la liberté de la presse.

Selon un reportage, fusillades aux deux mosquées à Christchurch en Nouvelle-Zélande ont laissé 49 morts, dont deux Bangladais, et plusieurs blessés. L'équipe de  Cricket Bangladesh l'a échappé belle parce que les cricketers étaient en retard pour la prière hebdomadaire. Le dernier test match de cricket a été annulé.

Selon un reportage, Human Rights Watch a mis en question la politique d'installer les Rohingyas à Bhasanchar. Dans un communiqué, HRW s'est dit que Bhasanchar serait une prison pour Rohingyas. une partie de l'île était inondé chaque année.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(22 février --- 1 mars)

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement bangladais s'est dit qu'il avait déjoué une tentative de détourner un vol de Biman Bangladesh Airlines, destiné à Dubaï depuis Chittagong. La force élite de l'armée de la terre a neutralisé le pirate qui possédait un revolver. La force élite de RAB s'est dit que le pirate présumé était déjà dans sa base-donné de criminel. En 2012, RAB l'a arrêté pour avoir abdiqué une femme. Tout le monde pose la question comment le pirate a évité la surveillance de l'aéroport et est monté à bord de l'avion.

Selon un reportage, les pompiers  ont trouvé un autre entrepôt clandestin des substances chimiques au sous-sol de Wahid Mansion où une incendie dans un entrepôt des eaux de toilette avait tué 78 personnes.

Selon un reportage, un ressortissant  de la Roumanie a été trouvé mort dans le logement d'une société de Tabac à Savar.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement bangladais a fermé 1500 comptes de Facebook dans 20 jours. Le gouvernement s'est dit que la plupart avaient été utilisés pour disséminer les nouvelles fausses.

Selon un reportage, 5 personnes de la même famille ont succombé à mort à  maladie mystérieuse à Thakurgaon. La maladie a ciblé leur village il y a deux semaine .

Plupart des élèves dans l'école bangladaise ont assez des difficultés à comprendre les cours, selon une étude de la Banque mondiale. Trois sur quatre étudiants n'ont pas pu craquer les problèmes mathématiques à dernier niveau de l'école primaire. 43% des élèves ont    assez des difficultés à répondre en Bangla aux questions.

Élection municipale de nord Dhaka a eu lieu. Le candidat du parti en exercice a remporté plupart des votes. L'opposition principale,déjà jeté le scrutin, l'a nommé une dérision. Je suis allé à bureau de vote au 11h du matin. J'ai découvert que seulement deux ou trois bulletins de vote ont été déposés. En général, le taux de participation était 29,13%, d'après un quotidien populaire.

Change The Priority

A recent study by World Bank laid bare the dilapidated condition of our education sector. The study revealed that 3 out of 4 students could not solve simple arithmetic problem in class 5. In class 3, 43% students could not answer in Bengali to simple questions.

The Bank's report titled "The World Development Report: Learning To Realize Education's Promise" found  a Bangladeshi kid spends 4 years of 11-year-of schooling in vain learning nothing at school. Among others, the study found poor quality of teaching and poor school management are responsible for this.

Government however put in place programs to improve the quality of education at primary level. For instance, it has been implementing Primary Education Development Program for a long time. Currently PEDP-4 is being implemented , whose core objective is to train more than hundreds of thousands of teachers and thousands of trainers in English at a cost of Tk 44,654 crore, as disclosed by a Daily Star report. PEDP-3 cost the government Tk 22,196 crore. World Bank also pledged to provide $700 million in PEDP-4.

I don't know whether the World Bank study intended to measure the progress earlier PEDPs made. But it seems that PEDP-3 failed miserably in terms of improving quality of teaching and learning environment in the classroom and acquiring grade-wise or subject-wise learning outcomes.

It is pretty obvious that these programs did not live up to the the expectations of government and development partners. The widespread aura is that money has been wasted. Despite the fact that PEDP-4 has already drawn resources , the bigger question is  whether the PEDP-4 will be able to achieve the desired goals.

It is however not clear whether the teachers and trainers are existing ones or the new ones. Or a mix of both. Recently I read a news report of protesting school teachers. The teachers recruited as part School Education Quality Enhancement Programme(SEQEP) laid siege to the front road of Press Club and demanded permanent recruitment. They were recruited as additional teachers to improve the quality of English, Math and Science teaching. No sooner the fund had dried out they were laid off. During the recruitment, no one clearly conveyed the message whether  their recruitment was temporary or permanent, as claimed one protesting teacher. They staged an indefinite hunger strike for couple of weeks and later went into oblivion. The protest mocked the objective this kind of programs intended to achieve as such programs neither improved the quality of education nor ensured decent livelihood of the teachers.

Do not forget the political factor.There has been growing tendency in this part of the world to recruit teachers on political grounds. Politicians are involved in running the school management committee. So it is likely have some kind of impact on classroom teaching.

Besides, salaries can also be seen as one of the obstacles for not getting qualified teachers at primary and secondary level. My personal take is to use more and more university graduates who are about to enter active life or retired government and private officials. Apart from salary, graduates can be given additional scores to their public service examination scores for their minimum 1-year/6-month service at school. This will induce many graduates to take up the job. Many willing retired person may also contribute to improvement of school learning process. At school, I met such a teacher who had been college principal but took up the English teacher job to spend his post retirement life in a productive way. Of course the school paid him for his contribution.

To supplement the learning at school, government can set up libraries at school and outside school. A lower middle-income and middle-income parents do not have the means to buy all the text books in a syllabus. Through various ministries government can fund the libraries and initiate activities that concentrate on how to use dictionaries, understanding value of team effort, learning through alternative means , painting, ICT and watching educational contents.

Government can also take programs to purchase educational contents from private production houses to facilitate the learning process of school-goers.



For that it needs to invest lots of money. Bangladesh's total spending on education as percentage of GDP is the lowest in South Asia. In 2015, Bangladesh's public spending on education was 2.18%, only Sri Lanka shared that percentage in South Asia. (Source: UNESCO Institute For Statistics)

2015 Public Spending On Education As Percentage Of GDP. Source: UNESCO Institute For Statistics

In addition, percentage of female students at tertiary education is also declining. In 2014, 41.7% of the enrolled students at the Masters program at tertiary institutions were female. In 2016, it was declined to 34.25% . In 2017, it was improved to 40.92%. (Source: UNESCO Institute For Statistics)

Female teachers are less inclined to shirking at workplace. So recruiting them large numbers could help achieve the desired goals of the various programs government desires to achieve. Their greater participation at the Masters program means we are equipping our future teachers with new knowledge set and tools that will help nurturing the budding minds.

Government's lofty development ambitions may crash land unless it significantly increases its spending on education. The World Bank study is a stark reminder that we have to do more in education. At one hand , increasing the public expenditures is imperative. On the other hand, efficient and transparent use of this allocation is a must to attain the desired goals. And these two are inseparable.