HIES 2022: Truth Behind The Progress

Overall decline in poverty Completely opposes ground reality.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) published full report of Household Income And Expenditure Survey(HIES) 2022 in the last week of December. The report claimed at the national level poverty declined by 7.8 %. In 2016,it was 24.3% and it became 18.7%.But incidence of poverty increased conspicuously in Dhaka (rose to 17.9% from 16% in 2022)and Sylhet divisions and slightly in Barishal division. Growing incidence of poverty was observed among both the urban and rural households in Dhaka division. Extreme poverty declined all across the country( became 5.6% from 12.9% in 2016).Rising incidence of poverty in Dhaka hints that social security programs are not functioning well. Poverty among rural households in Dhaka division also increased remarkably. Perhaps, there are less income earning opportunities in the surrounding villages of Dhaka and/ rising price levels worsened their situation.

Households’ income also increased remarkably. Professional wages and salary registered decline while business and commerce registered an increase as sources of income.More and more people engaged in informal sector and self earning opportunities.

Their spending on food and non-food items declined.However, average food intake by households increased(from 975.5 grams in 2016 it became 1129.8 grams in 2022).Consumption of carbohydrates and proteins like milk, fish and egg registered a decline. What is interesting consumption of meat increased while we witnessed how high prices of beef and poultry forced households to rely on egg in the last one year. In the wake of high inflation ,this increase in meat consumption is not realistic. This data on protein intake is already under scanner.

Social security programs widened and more households subscribed to such programs(37.6% in 2022 and 27.8% in 2016). Yet we saw how urban poverty got worsened. 21.11% of the population starved a whole day in a year or ran out of food. This measurement of food insecurity introduced for the first time in HIES.Gastric ulcer emerged as the key health sufferings endured by the households during the last 12 months. In addition, more and more people in rural areas reported to be suffered from respiratory complications. Non-qualified doctors at the pharmacy provided the households treatment when they got sick.

Income inequality got worsened. In 2016,Gini coefficient was 0.482 at the national level. It became 0.499. Income inequality improved in the rural areas and it worsened in the urban areas( 0.539 in 2022 and 0.498 in 2016).

There is a lot of debate about this latest HIES. The percentage decline in professional wages and salary as source of income is clear indication that job opportunities in formal sector shrinked.Did income inequality wane in the rural areas? Did social security programs really reach to the poor? Rising incidence of poverty in the urban areas gives a whole different picture that challenges the claim of overall reduction in poverty. If income of Bangladeshis increased and more households opened bank accounts, then why are most of the banks facing liquidity crisis? World Bank in a report on food security put Bangladesh in red zone where countries experience 5-30% inflation are kept. It is hard to grasp that amid 12.6% food inflation Bangladeshis raised their meat consumption. HIES accidentally laid bare the cost of unplanned development: waterlogging became a major source of disasters sustained by most of the maujas.

In general, the timing of full publication of HIES 2022 coincided with the election. Taking credit of reducing extreme poverty may prompt the government to pick up this time of the year to publish it. Yet, some data do not validate the true picture at the ground.