Fight For Legitimacy

Referendum guarantees governing norms Practice brings true reforms.

In his first televised address, Chief Advisor called the people to decide the date of their departure. He made the plea after some left-leaning quarters raised concerns about the duration of the interim govt. He also called the political stakeholders to fix the date of election. As I have written in one of earlier pieces, Prof Muhammad Yunus was brought to power to fix the economy, the reform program is just a smokescreen. And the idea is working! Economy has got a positive signal. Remittances coming faster than we thought,foreign budget assistance is also coming. The new governor divulged that he would approach the IMF for another $3 billion for the budget support, making the total IMF credit package $7.7 billion. However, govt is reluctant to depreciate the currency further,apprehending upward trend in price levels. Crawling peg is still in favor of govt's stance. But still there is ample room for taka depreciation and I think it will be good for the country in the long run. Crude oil price and grain price could be the deciding factors, the two shapes the lives of people here, for picking up the appropriate time to depreciate the local currency.

Meanwhile, the economy is in really bad shape. The true picture of the battered economy is surfacing. A news report says between 2015 and 2019, govt projected GDP growth rate was 3% higher than what it had actually been. The report alleged that former finance minister actively participated in manipulating inflation and GDP data in connivance with some BBS officials. The former minister even went into a loggerhead with the World Bank country office¹. When the inflation data is flawed, interest rate and business decisions will also be flawed. In one of my pieces, I argued how flawed inflation data could affect IRR based investment decision making(see "Slow Alignment Costs Investment",October 05,2023).Meanwhile, inflated GDP estimate is used to increase public expenditures in politically motivated projects and unproductive sectors.

The incumbent chief election commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal raised important issues about the status of this interim govt in an opinion column. The point he wanted to make is that it is a govt came through a revolution and supported by the Army. To make interim govt's decisions more effective, it has to make some order/decree stating that its decisions even if contradictory to the constitution will enjoy special status and be above the constitution. Since it is not a military govt, it is not being governed by martial law,which postpones the constitution. So his suggestion is to postpone the constitution completely, or partially, or keep it with the ongoing decisions by issuing a decree that says all decisions taken by this govt will be deemed legitimate in future course of events. He thinks this will dispel any ambiguity regarding the decisions taken by this interim govt². This is a good point that the interim govt should pay heed.

I personally think the interim govt should go for a referendum with the draft reform policies it intends to undertake and duration of the govt to get a view of public perception. This govt is continuing the tenure of the past regime that will likely to end by January 05,2029. Since the former PM fled the country and has been accused of killing innocent people, the current govt assumed the power in the request of "students and citizens" to run the country and "steer the reforms".And constitution says election will be held by April 05,2029. In that light , it has ample time to rule the country. Since it is a "revolutionary govt" claimed by some, a referendum will give the much needed legitimacy to it and the decisions it has made or is going to make. Many of the people have not got an opportunity to vote in the last 15 years. They will be happy to give their decisions on how long they would like to see this govt. A ballot paper stating "1/2/3/4 years for this and that reform ( brief description of reforms)" or "no reform under this govt" will suit the need. Referendum will establish a high moral ground for the interim govt. Even if the govt looses the referendum, the advisors will also have a high moral ground to say that they respect people's verdict and decide to go. It will also throw cold water to quarter that has dubious intention and wants to rest guns on interim govt's shoulders.

The committee to prepare the white papers on corruption has just been formed. I am eager to see what white paper it will bring about on the corruption in the defense and in the establishment. Such "white paper",even if it sees the light, will ultimately decide the tenure of this govt. Police stations are not operational yet. I think many of the police personnel need to go through training session/ program to make sure who fits for the job and who does not. Speculations are abound that many got the job without completing the compulsory trainings ( 6-month for constables). At the same time uniforms need to be changed, police and Army uniforms can be made easily from any tailoring shop. Specially designed uniforms with features of authenticity and made in exclusive tailoring shop will prevent the uniforms from falling into wrong hands. Without fully-functioning police stations, it cannot ensure rule of law. It also needs police stations to continue the probe on murders of students and innocent people. The number of the dead reached 758 till August 29. Another reason for the interim govt to stay is to finish the probe of July massacre.

Coming back to economy. Govt abolished the ad hoc practice of raising the energy prices. Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) will resume holding regular hearing on raising /lowering prices of energy. I still believe govt is continuing the monthly fuel price adjustment policy as per the conditions laid out by the IMF. It is a good practice as it stems leakages. A news report says Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation provided inflated projection of fuel prices that ultimately led to not lowering the fuel prices. Govt has to decide which projection or estimation should be taken into account in deciding the fuel price adjustment. I mentioned earlier fuel price adjustment is linked to depreciation of taka,which will make our goods more competitive and bring more remittances. Government has objectives like earning revenue from import duties on fuel and making BPC more profitable. But it should also weigh up decision about revenue from tariff and that about foreign currency earnings. Energy ministry needs to clear $470 million to clear the energy dues. A steady stream of export and remittances will make it smooth with the help of depreciation of the currency. It is also reported that former energy minister has stake in Vittol Asia,which owes $180 million to govt as energy payment, raising serious conflict of interest issues. Govt needs to probe this seriously and scuttle the deal if it is still in effect.

Govt declared metro rail "essential service" to bolster its security. The designation key public installation is not necessary.The Metro Rail Act ,which includes the Mobile Court Act(a repository of all the laws) ,is there to ensure its security. I leafed through the Metro Rail Act,it is a tough act. Despite the Metro Act, it was deliberately targeted. Here lies the spirit of reforms. If we do not respect the changes,do not practice the reforms, it is pointless to make reforms and changes. Instead of making the top-down reforms, just go for the bottom-up reforms: the ones people want the govt to make. In this regard ,govt should ask people, groups,communities and organizations to contribute their inputs into the reforms. Instead of taking all the burdens on your shoulder, just spread it to all and make the "reforms" more participatory.

References:

1. "Banowat Porishonkhaner Prodhan Porikolponakari Lotas Kamal(Lotus Kamal Main Architect Of Fraudulent Stats)",Daily Bonikbarta, August 25,2024. Link: https://bonikbarta.net/home/news_description/396456/%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%8B%E0%A7%9F%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%9F-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%82%E0%A6%96%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AF%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%A7%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A8-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%B2%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AA%E0%A6%A8%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%80-%E0%A6%B2%E0%A7%8B%E0%A6%9F%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B8-%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B2
2. "Biplob O Farman : Songbidhan O Sarkar(Revolution And Decree: Govt And Constitution) ",Kazi Habilbul Awal, Daily Samakal, August 24,2024. Link: https://samakal.com/opinion/article/252561/%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B2%E0%A6%AC-%E0%A6%93-%E0%A6%AB%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A8:-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%93-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%82%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A7%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A8

[*Update: this piece has been updated on September 02,2024; update includes inclusion of reference to IRR based decision making.]

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(24 août --- 30 août)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
24	Biscuit(depuis marché)	Riz,Petit taro chinois avec sec latya	Riz,Petit taro chinois avec sec latya	---
25	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Papaye,Pianju,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	Goyave
26	Pain,Omelette, Goyave	Riz,Poulet	Riz,Poulet	Riz gonflé avec tchanatchur(depuis marché)
27	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Poulet,Petit taro chinois avec sec latya poisson	Riz,Poulet,Petit taro chinois avec sec latya poisson	---
28	Riz gonflé,Omelette	Riz,Omelette, Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre	Riz gonflé,Tchanatchur(depuis marché)
29	Riz,Œuf,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi,Petit taro chinois avec latya sec	Nouilles	---
30	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Pois chiches,Gombo,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Pois chiches,Soupe aux lentilles	Pois chiches, Riz gonflé

Sketches Of Reforms Emerge

Witch hunting in anti corruption drives Leaves a society where polarization thrives.

Govt is unveiling its reform programs. Economic reforms are more conspicuous than others. Specifics of the reforms will emerge in more than 3 months. One advisor hinted that the government identified 6 sectors for reforms. Elections will be held after the reforms,reiterated by the Chief Advisor.

Meanwhile, newly appointed governor stressed his commitment on not injecting money into trouble-ridden banks owned by a major conglomerate. He even made it clear that government would take the shares of the banks if it necessitated. Previous regime printed money and injected into specialized trouble-ridden banks in the name of promissory demand notes. In addition, central bank appointed administrator to a mobile financial platform. Details of its stakeholders come under scanner.Its license to operate digital banking is also scrapped. $406 million in 20 days of this month boasts remitters' confidence on this govt. However, heavy torrential rainfall caused flash flood, affecting lives of 3 million people. If the waterlogging continues for more than two weeks ,then there will be a little bit worry for the govt. Luckily, it has some funds at hands saved by slashing development expenditures of previous regime. Growing support of international communities also ensures future post-flood rehabilitation commitment if it is needed. Post flood cultivation will require less agricultural subsidies in the affected areas as alluvial soil will substitute part of the inputs. But now the govt is cash strapped and has already approached World Bank to provide $1 billion as budget support to clear energy dues.

Education advisor switched to old syllabus and students have to again choose a discipline from science ,arts and commerce at grade 9.Ministry of information resumed broadcast of opposition media outlets. Other broadcast and media houses also witnessed significant change in ownerships. Draconian laws are still being reviewed.

UN fact finding mission has arrived to start preliminary works on how to start probe on mass student killing. I earlier stressed on setting up a permanent lab under UN so that individuals, journalists, marginalised groups,insurance companies,judiciary, corporate can avail its services to get independent and impartial probe of an incident. Meanwhile, UN can also provide support to SME programs ,run by govt and private banks. As govt is pursuing contractionary monetary policy, enough resources cannot be mobilized to SME programs. UN observers and support are also needed to proper functioning of the police stations.

Speculations are abound that the Army led joint task force will start a drive against the corrupts. I oppose such campaign in many of my pieces and argued that such move only sows seeds of panic and amplifies money laundering activities. An economy characterized by more than 50% of undocumented wealth cannot withstand ensuing consequences of such drive. Furthermore, division and polarization in the society will contribute to increase the budget deficit,creating an uphill task for future govts to fill it. Instead of nabbing the corrupts, it is more important to build institutions, to strengthen the existing ones ,to ensure proper functioning of them and to make policies. Even if the task force is keen to go ahead,then it should start with the corruption in defense procurement, electronic voting machine scam, Sena edible oil's Taka 11 billion overdue loan repayment to Sonali Bank and money laundering accusation ( some say Taka 6 billion) against the Army during the 1/11 govt (see references). This will surely improve public image of the Army. Otherwise, witch hunting in the name of anti-corruption drive will create further polarization in the society,which at any cost should be avoided. Interim govt is here to make lasting changes. It means creating institutions, giving accountability a firm footing and setting up a check and balance mechanism.

References:

1. "Rin Porishodhe Sorkar E Darostho Sena Edible(Sena Edible Resorts To Govt To Clear Loan Repayments)",Daily Prothom Alo,May 28,2022. Link: https://www.prothomalo.com/business/%E0%A6%8B%E0%A6%A3-%E0%A6%B6%E0%A7%8B%E0%A6%A7%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%A6%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%B8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A5-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%A8%E0%A6%BE-%E0%A6%8F%E0%A6%A1%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%B2
2. "Panch Sho Koto Taka'r EVM Jacchey Bhangarite( Taka 5 billion Worth EVM Goes To Salvage Yard)",M Humayun Kabir,Daily Ajker Patrika,June 24,2024. Link: https://www.ajkerpatrika.com/343016/%E0%A7%AB%E0%A7%A6%E0%A7%A6-%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%8B%E0%A6%9F%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%87%E0%A6%AD%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%8F%E0%A6%AE-%E0%A6%AF%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%9A%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%9B%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%AD%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%99%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%87
3. "Sarkarer Kachhey 500 Koti Takar Sohoita Chai Ansar O VDP Unnayan Bank(Ansar And VDP Development Bank Asks For Taka 5 Billion As Credit Assistance)",Khabor Sangjog,May 15,2024.Link: https://www.khoborsangjog.com/trade-and-business/40963/%E0%A6%9C%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%81%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BF-%E0%A6%AD%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%87-%E0%A7%AB%E0%A6%B6-%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%8B%E0%A6%9F%E0%A6%BF-%E0%A6%9F%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%B9%E0%A6%BE%E0%A7%9F%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BE-%E0%A6%9A%E0%A6%BE%E0%A7%9F

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(17 août --- 23 août)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
17	Pain,Pomme de terre bhaji	Riz,Petit poisson	Riz,Petit poisson	Nouilles
18	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Poulet	Riz,Poulet	---
19	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi,Haricot rouge avec sec ruban poisson	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec ruban poisson	---
20	Pain,Pomme de terre bhaji	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre	Riz,Haricot rouge avec ruban sec	---
21	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Omelette, Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	---
22	Riz,Œuf	Riz,Sec latya avec petit taro chinois	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre	Pain
23	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre,Épinard d'eau	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Omelette	---

Charity Begins At Home

Sweeping changes bring new hope, Past mistake, lawlessness may slide the country into slippery slope.

Bangladesh's "cultural revolution" shows no sign to abate. Meanwhile, new interim govt has started sweeping changes. Heads of key public institutions have been changed including the central bank. Few hints of the reform programs are also provided: initiation of UN-led probe to investigate the mass killing of the students as part of the 9-point demand, proposal to introduce political party act, reevaluation of draconian laws, publication of true economic data. In addition, strong demand for publishing white paper on the corruption of key institutions is also raised.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has published the July data on inflation: 11.66 % average inflation but food inflation is 14%. Average inflation is highest in 13 years. Though contractionary monetary policy is in place, it is working slowly. Newly appointed governor Ahsan H Mansur ,a former IMF economist, hints that he will review the policy rate. Further rise in interest rate is anticipated, maybe after the appointment of 4 deputy governors. Industry insiders start to speak: an MD of a private bank claims true data of the financial sector are more shocking than what has been reported in the press. Even the new governor said it would take time to stabilize the economy.

The governor may recruit foreign economist in its monetary policy committee to give insights in preparation of monetary policy statement. Spending some dollar in this recruitment will not waste. Moreover,like India, survey may be conducted prior to publication of Monetary Policy Statement to have an understanding about the inflation expectations and the economic scenario at the ground level. Two MPS require two surveys, consisting of interviews (say 20,000) of households and businessmen across Bangladesh. With the help of economics and statistics graduates, Bangladesh Bank field offices may conduct the surveys. It will start the practice of regular publishing of MPS based on primary data. IMF advocates 4 MPS in a given year. Gradually, the central bank may tread on that path. Central bank may also look into the matter of "shadow companies/NGOs", organizations operated by some quarters to steal public money, that siphon off subsidy money. Politically motivated thrust sectors like ICT, climate fund projects are fertile ground for such "shadow companies/NGOs". I saw tv report on embazzlement of Equity and Entrepreneurship Fund(ICT), operated by central bank. It could be a good starting point.

Govt should scrutinize its decision of cabinet expansion. Inclusion of two former bureaucrats raises red flags. How could a bureaucrat who professed about continuing high interest-bearing Savings Certificate program ,eating up a large part of social security spendings as pointed out by the IMF ,make his way into the interim govt that is meant to overhaul the governance?(Source:"Ekhono Kharar Ghaer Opekhhae(Still Waiting For Insult To Injury)", Ali Imam Mojumder,Daily Prothom Alo,August 18,2021."Dhoni Goshthi Ke Pronodona, Moddhobitter Sonchoy E Haat(Incentives To Rich,Targeting Middle Class' Savings)",Ali Imam Mojumder,Daily Prothom Alo,October 02,2021) Maybe there are other cabinet members who may oppose coterie views and ideas,still it is not a good idea to accommodate all those who write opinion pieces in "a reliable source of news" paper, run by former communist party editor. Some 1/11 govt's redundant advisors grabbed plot,clinics by abusing their position. The country still rankles with that. Same mistakes should not be repeated. Include industry insiders ,change makers with clear vision who will not take govt salary in this time of austerity.

It is a good news that UN will send some fact finding mission as part of starting the probe on mass student killing.Death toll reaches 582 till August 14. Let this be an occasion to set up an UN operated forensic lab comprising of audiovisual lab to analyze footage and recordings, mortuary to redo the autopsy,a ballistic and incendiary department to probe on incendiary attacks and shooting, a narcotics bureau among other things with a pool of investigators and experts. This permanent lab will be a precursor to other labs in places where conflicts and proxy wars render useless availing such services in an impartial way. In addition, this kind of probe will stem debate that has the potential to turn into a virulent form.

It is another laudable move to introduce Political Party Act. I think the advisor intends to say ordinance. But political parties are not the only stakeholders in politics ,others will also have to be held accountable. In the last two elections, we saw how a subsidiary of govt organ placed huge bill to the govt in the name of supplying electronic voting machines. Govt should introduce another ordinance to hold such organ accountable to the press and the Parliament. At the same time, it should scuttle such subsidiary from getting public money and let them float share in the stock exchange or sell share to private companies to get their funds. Politicians have Representative of Public Order obligation to disclose information about their property. But many civil and military bureaucrats holding crucial position do not have that obligation. In China, senior police and anticorruption personnel require to provide info about their wealth in every three months. Interim govt could think of similar ordinance to address the structural flaws.

Sweeping changes show promising sign that the interim govt heads towards the right direction. The aura of "cultural revolution" needs to be discarded to give it a civilized look. This interim govt will glow up only when it will avoid past regime's bad habits like running parallel administration.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(10 août --- 16 août)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
10	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi avec épinard de malabar	Riz,Ruhi	Prune de Cochon
11	Pain,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi,Latya poisson	Riz,Poulet	Prune de cochon
12	Pain,Poulet	Riz,Anguille indienne avec pomme de terre	Riz,Anguille indienne avec pomme de terre	Prune de Cochon
13	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre	Riz,Lait poudre	Prune de Cochon
14	Pain,Pomme de terre	Riz,Lait	Riz,Omelette	---
15	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Petit poisson	Riz,Petit poisson	---
16	Pain,Omelette,Lait	Riz,Ruhi	Riz,Ruhi	---

Bangladesh Banks On Prof Yunus To Bail Out The Country

Sheikh Hasina fled the country while economy in tatters, Prof Yunus heads the government as budget deficit matters.

Having been without any government for more than 72 hours, Bangladesh finally got one. It is headed by Professor Yunus, poster boy of Bangladesh's success story. The dramatic fall of Sheikh Hasina regime and the ensuing lawlessness troubled the people a lot. Widespread looting,vandalism and attacks on police stations and property,vendetta are signs that vandals are pretty much in charge and the Army loosened its grip though lifted the curfew. While the police abandoned the stations, it could easily fill the void with the assistance of Ansars and magistrates. So the Army administration cannot avoid the responsibility of the mayhem caused between August 05 and August 08,which witnessed murder of police personnel and destroying police stations with arson attack. The police stations stored valuable documents. Weapons were looted and destroyed in fire. Most of these retributive incidents occurred while the Army was in charge of the country.

The violence even compelled the interim govt chief to call for calm and put an end to violence in his first public appearance at home. Despite the perception of Professor Yunus as head of interim govt to steer the next election, I think it is a desperate measure to pop up the economy which is in dire straits. Sheikh Hasina's failed China trip did not manage adequate budget support commitment. A Bengali daily reported that Awami regime borrowed Taka 15 trillion and laundered $149.20 billion in 15 years. Meanwhile, budget deficits keep growing and our foreign debt becomes $79 billion this year(Source:"Awami Govt Borrowed More Than Taka 1.5 Million Crore In 15 Years",Daily Bonik Barta,August 07,2024). The so called clerical mistake of $10 billion in export earnings and serious corruption charges of civil and military bureaucrats facilitated the departure of Awami regime. The calculated and cold blooded killing of students and innocents during the student movement worked as triggering event to dethrone Sheikh Hasina. Students genuinely involved in this movement spontaneously,seeing so many fellow students' death,torture and finding a platform to finally express themselves. So the current state of the country is the result of their hard work,no offence to that. But without knowingly, they are being used in an engineered crisis. UN probe on the triggering event, mass killing of the students, will reveal many unanswered questions, I hope and believe. They have paid a heavy price and they deserve their own platforms so that people have more choices/options in politics. It will also be a blunt reply to those who used them as cannon fodder to oust Sheikh Hasina.

Now the economy is in tatters. This ongoing crisis shuts down the economy and saves public money. Shut down of rail network and metro systems saves subsidy money. This is true for many other sectors. Schools and colleges are also closed. If this crisis is not engineered, then the establishment has to reveal the ugly truth: it does not have enough resources to run the country. Having admitted that it doctored economic data, the Awami regime lost the moral high ground to run the country. I still believe Sheikh Hasina is in Bangladesh,maybe at the hands of the Army, because no visual of her in India is presented before the media. So the whole Sri Lanka like drama is staged to save the economy. Bring a fresh new govt , send a positive signal to the economy and investors. And an internationally known figure like Professor Yunus will help fetching foreign budget support. But I think it will not be that easy. Currency is in free fall. Bangladesh Bank restricts withdrawal of money from individual account to Taka 100,000. In addition, it tightens rules on reporting by banks on financial transactions of politicians. Despite the inflationary ease, liquidity crisis persists in banks. People prefer to hold more cash in hands sensing no sign of improvement in political impasse and inflation. Luckily, interim govt will have some funds at their disposal: funds released from unnecessary subsidies( cash transfer,export assistance etc) and social security programs. Moreover, development spending of a political government is also saved in this circumstances. So this saved money will improve the budget deficits to some extent. Investors' confidence will be back when the government will unveil its reform programs if there is any. Such programs will give them an idea of future policy changes in Bangladesh. First task of the interim govt is to restore law and order. A demoralized police force may not be handy in this time. Widespread use of paramilitary forces like Ansar in aid to police officers and magistrates to maintain law and order may give a sigh of relief. At the same time, setting up open detention centers like El Salvador across the country to detain the rioters,plunderers who live freely in the society will render them useless during electoral campaign, paving the path for a peaceful election. In addition, it will help reigning in inflation by incapacitating few sources of extortion. Ensuring safety of all including the ones of former ruling party will create conducive atmosphere of participatory election where all major political stakeholders will participate. When objectives of the interim govt are clear to everyone, confidence of all including the investors will be restored. The sheer scale of laundered money says how some quarters at home and abroad use Bangladesh as "treatment plant" to launder money abroad. These quarters have penetrated deep into the establishment. So it is not a political problem, rather a structural one. To address structural issues, we need accountability, commitment and policy formulation. Given the transnational nature of money laundering, interim govt could facilitate deal with other countries to disclose information about stolen money and repatriation of the culprit.

Non performing loans may not increase, but recovery of NPL may stall as many borrowers go for hiding in the wake of new change in power. Boasting image of Professor Yunus to get budget support from abroad and regaining investor's confidence may not work well if interim govt cannot operate freely. Fall of Awami regime has sent a positive signal to the economy, but any attempt of resting gun on Prof Yunus' shoulder to aim at another goal will jeopardize the optimistic mood.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(03 août --- 09 août)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
03	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre	Riz,Pomme de terre	Prune de Cochon,Pomme,Malta
04	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi avec soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz,Ruhi avec soupe aux haricots mungo	---
05	Riz,Œuf,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Petit taro chinois,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Riz gonflé,Lait
06	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre,Épinard malabar	Pain,Pomme de terre avec épinard malabar	---
07	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre	Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre	---
08	Pain,Omelette	Riz,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Lait	Prune de cochon
09	Pain,Lait pudre	Riz,Lait	Riz,Omelette	Riz gonflé

Quota Reform Movement: High Death Toll And Injuries Shake Up The Government

Angry young souls took bullets on the street, Staying to the cause and vowing not to retreat.

Bangladesh is still reeling from the shock of death of more than 200 people,most of whom are students, in the quota reform movement. Unofficial estimates put the number even higher. 20,000 plus people have been reported to be injured. More than 10,000 people have been arrested across the country. Internet has been resumed after being suspended for more than 10 days. Since the mobile internet is restored, Bangladeshis like me have a chance to get to know how heavy handedly authorities dealt with the protesters. During the curfew , TV ,radio and newspapers are only sources of information. On YouTube, video clips and news of the victims one by one started to emerge. I could not believe my eyes watching sheer scale of the movement and brutality sustained by the protesters. Some of them are really gruesome incidents and heartbreaking. Losses to the families are really heavy to bear. It is better to share some of them :

1. In one video, two teenage protesters are seen on the street. Seconds later the two fell to the street after being hit by sniper bullets. They are not shaking ,dead on the spot. Shotgun shot would left them injured and let them bleed to death. It was not a shotgun shot. Just a year ago , I watched a video on hog hunting in Germany. Where snipers killed wild hogs in reserve forest. The wild boars died instantly without shaking. Precise hit and caliber of the bullet ensured the instant death.
2. Another video shows protesters dancing on rooftop of Police and BGB APCs. Moments later a wounded boy, probably injured by gunshot, was thrown out of an APC and left to the street. The boy died there in vain,claims the video.
3. A protester is seen fleeing a spot riding on a rickshaw. A police vehicle hit the rickshaw from the rear and dragged it all the way. It was not known what happened to the protester.
4. Image of a Dhaka University student drenched in blood is seen in one image. She is one of the dead.
5. In one video, a student is seen distributing water bottles to fellow protesters. Later it is reported that he was a freelancer in fiverr and killed by gunshot wound in the head.
6. A news report by Deutche Velle says a college student was killed by Police. He was the son of a garments worker mother and a migrant father who worked days and nights to keep the economy moving. They are saving money for their son's higher education.
7. Another news report says a painter was shot dead. The only breadwinner borrowed hefty money to go abroad to improve the livelihoods of his family. Everything is lost.
8. An 11-year old boy killed inside his home on the sixth floor.
9. A photographer standing along with his friends was shot to death in Panthapath.

Law enforcement personnel also fell victims to the violence. A police inspector was brutally beaten to death by goons outside his home in Rampura. Just the day before, his Narayanganj office was vandalized. Another policeman was beaten to death on the rooftop of a house in Jatrabari. A paramilitary personnel was killed in a friendly fire.

Destructions of public property and deliberate attacks of key public installations hint that many miscreants infiltrated the movement with different agenda. Incendiary attacks and vandalizing property were deliberate moves to dilute the impact of so many killings ,it appears. Setu Bhaban, BRTA Bhaban, Bureau of Disaster Management,Department of Health,ICDDR,B and Metro Stations are all close to Dhaka cantonment. A video shot by an Indian medical student studying in Bangladesh shows miscreants wielding arms roaming freely in the streets in Mohakhali. Another CCTV footage shows miscreants without any resistance causing mayhem inside BRTA Bhaban. A news report reads miscreants destroyed all the CCTV cameras of the Setu Bhavan and Bureau building before setting them alight. How did random miscreants know precise location of CCTV cameras? While the miscreants were on a rampage in Mohakhali area ,they did not touch SKS tower,DOHS and Directorate General of Defense Procurement building. How could miscreants spare those if they were randomly targeting the buildings? Among the documents and laptops stolen or destroyed include those of elevated express way ,which is marred by cost overrun and delay and also a subject of investigation by EXIM Bank of China. More than 100 vehicles were torched in Setu Bhavan,BTV and Department of Health. Just few months ago, a minister gave scolding to ministry officials for not providing details of functioning vehicles and shirking by ad-hoc drivers. The practices cost the ministry a lot. Meanwhile, why would a cornered opposition provide opportunity to the ruling regime to bag opportunities from renovation and reconstruction of destroyed buildings? Who will be the beneficiary if 100,000 of commuters do not use the Mirpur-10 Metro station daily? I myself firsthand saw how miscreants vandalized tiles kept aside meant to renovate the footpath. This was not the work of student protesters. Such mayhem made ways for fresh procurement of the footpath tiles. Point is various quarters are using the movement to settle their own agenda.

The very Mirpur where police box and Metro station were set alight witnessed attacks on irregular police boxes before and blockade of key roads. Videos of news reports are still available.Back then political leadership was sympathetic to them. Who brought these people here and patronized them?

Indiscriminate shooting and killing gave this movement a momentum. And in Bangladeshi politics, dead student body is a highly sought after thing. If it is found in campus , then it is even better for the cause of the movement. In recent months, we saw how former senior officers of the security establishment engaged in corruption and got sanctions from the US. This tarnished the image of these institutions. Moreover, series of corruption reports of public servants also put the ruling regime into serious pressure. Student deaths and ongoing movement diverted the attention from those issues to present movement.

It is a good news that the ruling regime agreed on an independent probe and sought assistance from the UN in this matter. In my piece "Another Transition Period Ends",written in April, I also highlighted the need for a forensic lab under UN for independent probe(Link : https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2024/04/another-transition-period-ends.html?m=1). I think this time UN investigation is needed to identify the units and individuals involved in indiscriminate shooting, to distinguish between death caused by law enforcement shooting and by other means, to probe incendiary attacks, to investigate whether prior steps are taken if information of such mayhem available to govt,to probe which one is targeted killing and which one is confrontational killing and to probe who was behind ordering live munitions. Only an independent probe could to some extent heal the losses.

In Narasingdi, around 900 prisoners including some terrorists escaped during a prison break following a deliberate attack on the prison. When some of them voluntarily returned to the prison a day later, the prison chief told them to wait as the authority is not ready yet to restore the damages. Later more than half of the prisoners handed themselves over to the authority,sensing lawlessness and unsecured lives outside the prison. This captures deterioration of law and order situation and rising cost of living in Bangladesh. Earlier a robber and hangman freed after serving jail terms had sustained brief spell of sickness and later perished in hospital within two years of his release. His sister told the press had her brother stayed in prison, he might have better chance to live few more years. At least in prison, one may get free food,accommodation and safety. This has become reality of Bangladesh.

This widespread lawlessness and hopelessness pushed many youths to take the streets. Who sustains this prolonged lawlessness across Bangladesh and thereby running a parallel administration? In this backdrop, we witness deliberate acts of vandalism during the movement. I ,to some extent ,do subscribe the analysis that draws parallel between violence in Manipur and vandalism during the movement in Bangladesh. Like Manipur violence, we witnessed here too targeted killing of people who tried to leave the country, arson attack, weak grip of law enforcement agencies during the vandalism and imposition of curfew. This type of incidents happened frequently in the past. Recent UN sanctions,UNODC report,geographic location of Bangladesh, nature of violence in recent years increasingly hint that vandalism took place in last few years in Bangladesh resembles to the incidents happening in Mexico, El Salvador. It is evident that ruling regime's governing grip becomes weaker. Instead of addressing the issues responsible for deteriorating law order condition,we witness how law enforcement agencies are used to subdue protests, including the recent one. Meanwhile, economy is bleeding. If greater political consensus is not reached soon, our economic recovery will be prolonged and it is the ordinary people who may bear the burden.

[Update: The last two paras are added on August 03,2024 at 10:53 Bangladesh Standard Time.]