Normalcy Yet To Return

Consumers yet to give sigh of relief, Recruit foreigner as department chief.

The "revolutionary govt" has made remarkable achievements in terms of increasing the inward remittances flow and bringing foreign investor's confidence into the stock market. Despite the low incidence of extortion, kitchen market has yet to respond in the right way by registering a reduction in prices. August inflation data has not yet been published. But coarse rice price has gone up following the flash flood in the southern part of Bangladesh. However govt made a prodigious move by announcing that rice will be sold at Taka 30/kilo in the flood affected areas for three months.

The internet has been a great source of trouble. Except one all the operators offered internet services at snail's pace. Previously law-enforcement agencies deliberately slowed down internet in response to credible threat of deterioration of law & order. I do not know whether this time they have such information. But prices of data packages have gone up since the regime change. In addition, incidents of data loss, wrong package, breach of agreement have also gone up. For instance, I recharged some money into my phone with the intention of purchasing one package but later found that I was subscribed to another package which I had not intended to purchase. Furthermore, few months ago I had purchased a SIM from an operator with the offer that it would provide me 22 GB in the next 11 months (2GB for one week in each month). But on August 29, in a bizarre SMS, it said it nullified that offer. No explanation provided. Had it conveyed its intention before I would not have purchased the package. This is a serious breach of agreement and violates consumer rights. At one hand ,quality of internet drops ,on the other, cost of data rises. Earlier BTRC held regular hearing on violation of consumer rights and gave verdict. These hearing sessions should be resumed. Similarly, an auction process should be initiated to provide new license to another operator. At the same time, the merger of the two leading mobile operators should be investigated. Though they claim their Bangladesh operations are different, they have the same corporate headquarter in Kualalampur, where many influential former army bureaucrats and their family members reside,and boasted merger of their Asian operations¹. This merger not only hampers govt's revenue collection from the mobile operators but also undermines consumer rights. A strengthened Bangladesh Competition Commission may look into this matter and come up with a detailed report highlighting their market shares before and after the merger, impact on VAT and corporate tax revenue from this merger, impact on consumer rights, impact on businesses environment.

It is unfortunate that our existing institutions, agencies do not have the capacity to scrutinize the nitty gritty of such merger and other agreements. Or maybe they have it ,but remained mum under a corrupt atmosphere. The blunder with the pension fund lays bare it. I think it will be good for us if we recruit foreign economists(white/black) ,who practice macroeconomic management and has stint in IMF or investment bank, as chief economist of the central bank, as pension fund manager/consultant of the universal pension fund,advisor/consultant of NBR and consultant of strategic community. Instead of one set of assessment and forecast of the economy, if the central bank, the govt,the strategic community, the big corporation, civil societies produce their own assessment and forecast of the economy, better economic decisions will emerge out of multiple assessments and outcomes. If such individual economist/investment banker is not available,we may ink deal with investment firm or a department of foreign university to get the job done. Too many assessments and forecasts will have focus on different sectors of the economy and will produce better picture of them. Furthermore, estimation and forecast issues will be addressed more quickly and efficiently. At the same time any kind of narrative setting attempt using the economic data will be thwarted.

Recently, NBR and Comptroller And Auditor General (CAG) office came into loggerhead over the true figure of revenue data. NBR took into account deferred VAT revenue while calculating the revenue earnings. Meanwhile, CAG calculated revenue earnings based on VAT receipts in a given day. The differences between the calculations caused huge debate². It once again highlighted the lack of coordination among different govt bodies. Meanwhile ,IMF asks for preparing a midterm and longterm reform plan for the revenue sector. Affirmative position of IMF about another $3 billion requires genuine reform plan from the interim govt. I think other donors will follow the same strategy. It has been one month since the interim govt took power. They need more time to consolidate their position in the govt and kick start the reform programs. Sooner life returns to normalcy the better.

References:

1. "Telenor ,Axiata Malaysia Merger Finally Completes",Chris Donkin,Mobile World Live, November 30,2024.Link: https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/home-banner/telenor-axiata-malaysia-merger-finally-completes/
2. "Rajosho Totthyer Omil Thik Korte Sobha Dekhechhey NBR(NBR To Call Meeting To Fix Differences In Revenue Estimation)", Daily Bonikbarta, August 30,2024. Link: https://bonikbarta.net/home/news_description/397141/%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%9C%E0%A6%B8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AC-%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%A5%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AF%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%85%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%B2-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AC%E0%A7%9F%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%AD%E0%A6%BE-%E0%A6%A1%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%9B%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%8F%E0%A6%A8%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%86%E0%A6%B0