Specify The Timeline

Clear timeline to transfer of power May bring the recovery much earlier.

Interim govt completed its 100-day in power. In a televised address, Chief Advisor told the country would head towards election after necessary reforms.But no specific date is provided. Earlier an ordinance had been introduced validating the rule of the interim govt. It laid out that tenure of the current interim govt would be till the assumption of power by a new elected govt. From the ordinance, one cannot surmise the duration the current govt intends to stay.

No one is questioning the intention of the govt,but a specific election date is good for the economy. It will get a signal when this will end and when a new govt will take power. It will dispel uncertainty with so many factors. Take for instance the real estate sector. Since the regime change, the sector has been going through a bad spell. Some developers are too afraid to kick start new project. And many property owners are finding it difficult to encash / resell their properties as there are no buyers. Moreover, govt raised registration/reregistration fees to a level that discourages resell of properties. Since most of the nouveau riche are related to outgoing regime, there are not too many buyers with ample money to invest into property. It is a safe sanctuary of opaque capital as law permits investment of opaque capital in this sector. Since the anti-corruption drive is strong, investment of opaque capital into real estate has dried up. In addition, developers with genuine capital are reluctant to invest as interest rate is on the rise. It will raise their cost during implementation of the project. A BBC Bangla report revealed that a retired teachers couple shelved their plan for buying new apartment as they perceive the time uncertain,fearing unable to pay the instalment or developer company may go bankrupt. A specific election date will send a signal to the housing market when the tenure of this regime will be over. So the group planning to wind up business will go out of the business and the other group planning to step into this sector will have an idea when to step in. Some planning to go abroad will sell their properties to developers. Investors with opaque capital will get an idea when to invest. Construction sector recruits a lot of workers,addressing unemployment in major cities and absorbing rural labor force residing in the cities. Now this vital sector is in stalemate as the status of the current govt is creating some kind of uncertainty. Ongoing sit-ins, workers agitation, political differences among parties do not offer much room for optimism.

I thank the govt for honest reporting of the inflation data. Many blamed this govt for the rise in inflation rate(10.86%) during October. Inflation rose because govt took into account true price levels of the commodities. I will thank the govt more if it allows multiple parties including platforms of banks and the central bank to calculate and publish CPI and PPI.

In terms of revenue collection, govt achieved target from VAT but lags behind the targets of income tax and other duties. Govt is keen to tackle the inflation by March when the fasting month of Ramzan will commence. In this regard, it reduces the prices on edible oil,sugar,onion,rice and dates. As I have mentioned earlier,govt may review its decision on tariff on sugar and edible oil since the two are major sources of import revenue. Moreover, restrictions on potato export and revoking cash subsidy on potato export may lower the prices on potato. Potato export to Russia, Japan and the Middle East to some extent aggravated the situation.

I am expecting some structural changes from this govt rapidly. Govt doled out cheques as compensation to victim families of July-August movement. If it introduces an ordinance that requires perpetrator law-enforcement agency or personnel pay compensation to the victims of unlawful act, then it will curb tremendously recurrence of such extra judicial incident. The govt has a moral high ground to introduce such ordinance and no one will question its objective.

If the govt takes more time to publish white paper on corruption it may take it. But I have some observations on money laundering. Groups or individuals channelled out money outside the country without proper consent of Bangladesh Bank but showed it on the tax files /legal documents of the group's foreign subsidiary (under the same name) should not be deemed as money laundering. The money is in productive use as part of risk mitigation and maybe some regulations at home did not allow it to be transferred in legal way. Transfer of money to shell companies under false name or to unproductive investment should qualify for money laundering accusations. At the same time, govt should introduce another ordinance that holds agencies engaged in money laundering or failed to detect it.

We see in many countries there are parliamentary committee to oversee the conducts of security establishment. Unfortunately, we have not seen yet any reform commission on defense. Had they been active in time and played their role in due course we might not have seen so much corruption and a party might not become so authoritarian. Most of the corrupt groups are closely associated with the Armed Forces or police. Moreover, the Armed Forces were also involved in many mega projects. Yet they are not accountable for their conducts. There should be parliamentary oversight committee to summon them and offer their explanation over controversial issues.There should be constitutional clauses on safety of media outlets,journalists and owners of outlets to report on defense related irregularities. Since govt is opening new reform commission at measured intervals,it may open a new one on defense.

So far remittances and foreign assistance/soft loans give the govt an aura of confidence to start some expansionary fiscal policy. But I think from March it should align its fiscal policy with the monetary policy,which needs more tightening as policy rate is still lower than the inflation rate. The first priority is to fix the economy and then to go for other ones. Resuming regulatory role and a specific timeline to transfer of power may send a positive signal to the economy.