UP Election 2021: Atmosphere Degenerates

Surge in violence in UP poll,
Causing mayhem and swelling death toll.
It rings alarm for democracy and constitution,
And poses danger amid no reconciliation.

Second round of Union Parishod Elections turned out to be violent. 27 lives lost in the violence in UP polls. Death tally reached 32,including 5 in the first round,at the end of 2-round of election. It is assumed that we have buried the violent culture during UP elections. But the result and atmosphere prevailed during the UP elections proved us dead wrong. Degree of violence was unprecedented and invoked memories of 80’s and 90’s. In 2016,84 people fell victim to violence. In 2021,the 2-round alone claimed 32 lives.¹

(Image credit: https://rezaulhoque.wordpress.com)

From the past record ,we could see that only 50 lives lost in 1997;in 2003,80 deaths reported;another 83 deaths were reported in 2011.²Following the UP Election,I wrote a piece titled “UP Election 2016: Back To Square One” where I delved into stat of fatalities on past UP elections.Comparing death tolls of earlier elections, we can see electoral violence related death rose in subsequent elections. Many argued that number of death could have been lowered if government had deployed troops with formidable authority across the country prior to elections. In earlier elections, law-enforcing agencies used to carry out drive against illegal small arms and professional criminals in a bid to contain electoral violence. Such drive was conspicuously absent ahead of this election.²

As main opposition party BNP was not present, factional clashes and rival candidates stole the headlines. A critical election commissioner did not hide his emotions. He said: “Election in this country is in ICU and democracy is in life support…lack of reconciliation among key parties pushed democracy into death bed.” He also added:”Separate electoral body is required to hold UP elections. As EC does not decide the process of UP polls why should EC bear responsibility of such elections?”³

Not only in rural councils,governance situation deteriorated in City Corporations. In my previous post I shed some light on it. Disciples of Borishal City mayor vandalized the city after a bureaucrat had refused to take off posters put up by another candidates from walls of his premises. Secretary to Cumilla City Corporation was identified in taking part in vandalism during the Durgapuja. Disciples of Cox's Bazaar City mayor cut the city for 5-long hours from rest of Bangladesh and littered the streets with garbage after murder cases had been filed against him. These incidents left a blot in the reputation of local governments.

The point is unequal participation and power sharing at grassroot level not just took off the lid of cesspool of violence but pushed back democracy to that time when unwarranted violence was regular activity.

Rural council election is very important for a politician at the grassroot level and it is paramount to his existence.As we are living in a time of “winner takes all”,a win could give the candidate unrestrained access to command over local resources and a license to plunder money allotted to local projects. Astronomical sum they spend on campaign hints that it is matter of life or death.

All the parties and the state endorsed organized violence in dealing with rivals and in carrying out assigned tasks. Hence it spread to grass root level and disturbed the tranquil and mundane country life in rural areas, which are not an incubator of anger and hatred like the urban areas.²

As I wrote back in 2016,the message did not diminish in unraveling the true state of democracy.Sharing it again:

UP election violence only accentuated absence of strong democratic institutions and rule of an authoritarian regime. To have a firm footing at grass root level, government backed candidates picked up the weapon of unwarranted hooliganism and allowed the malpractices of governance to spread in rural areas. This election has already dealt a heavy blow to the fragile democratic process that is striving to back on track.²

Notes And References:

1 “Sohingshotae Pran Gelo Chhoy Joner(Violence Claims Six Lives)”,Prothom Alo,November 12,2021

2 “UP Election 2016: Back To Square One”,Rezaul Hoque,April 27,2016,https://rezaulhoque.wordpress.com,Link here

3 “Nirbachon ICU the Gonotontro Life Support e: Mahbub Talukder(Election in ICU,Democracy in Life Support: Mahbub Talukder) “,Sylhet Today24,November 14,2021Link here

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(05 novembre---12 novembre)

Selon un reportage, grève appelé par patron de bus en signe de protestation contre augmentation du prix de gazole a asphyxié la vie pour 3 jours à travers du pays.

Selon un reportage, violence dans élections municipales a tué 27 personnes et blessé 106. Scrutin dans 10 bureaux de vote a été reporté à cause de violence.

Selon un reportage, un éléphant a été électrocuté à mort à Sherpur.

Commitment Or New Alley For Corruption?

Fighting global warming is not just the state's pledge,
Individual commitment is the best hedge.

As countries and various parties in Glasgow are at loggerhead to confine the rate of annual temperature rise to 1.5° celcius by the end of this century,there has been little sign of optimism that they will be able to do that. In the mean time, Bangladesh has chalked out a plan (Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC) to reduce carbon emission by 22% by 2030,higher than 7% of the goal set by Bangladesh back in 2015. The plan,submitted to United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change,envisages that Bangladesh will finance reduction of 6.73% carbon emission while the donors will finance the rest of its reduction commitment. Bangladesh requires $176 billion in this regard.^{1 & 2}

The commitment demonstrates Bangladesh’s eagerness in reducing carbon emission. However, Bangladesh’s past record in managing climate fund is not clean.Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) last year in a study found that 54% of the climate mitigation funds allotted to 7 projects were swindled and one of the culprit was secretary to a minister.³In addition, TIB in another study found 14% to 76% corruption in 4 climate change projects,with a budget of Tk 1,102 crores where Tk 191 crores were swindled.⁴

The outcome of foreign funded projects never ended with a happy note. Look at the status of Election Commission,Police and CHT region.UNDP led initiatives to reform electoral process of Bangladesh, modernization of Police and development of Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) brought only embarrassment to the stakeholders.UKAID and other donors mobilized resources so that the projects would meet the desired ends.The outcomes turned out to be costly for the nation. A controversial election was staged in 2018,Tk 4000 crores were misappropriated by a powerful state organ that contributes to UN peace mission in the name of introducing Electronic Voting Machine(EVM), a special hearing on human rights abuse by Police was held in Switzerland by an UN agency and an eruption of gun violence in CHT claiming lives of many indigenous leaders. This has been common trend of project financed by donors in Bangladesh.

And Bangladesh is replete with examples how such projects backfired. World Bank funded local governments like City Corporations ( Pourasava) and Zila Parishads through Bangladesh Municipal Development Fund(BMDF) so that they could become independent financially and accountable to local people. After a decade,it stopped funding in the project as hardly any of them showed any positive impact.⁵ Cox's Bazaar which could be the richest City Corporation of Bangladesh even sought Tk 26 crores to BMDF. Now look at the kind of people chaired these institutions. Borishal City Mayor and his disciples vandalized the city over a row with a bureaucrat. Secretary to Cumilla City Corporation was identified in taking part in vandalism during the Durgapuja. Disciples of Cox's Bazaar City mayor cut the city for 5-long hours from rest of Bangladesh and littered the streets with garbage after murder cases had been filed against him.

What is worrying illicit financial flow has also become a problem for the country. The figure continues to rise. Many donor countries often appointed their former ambassadors to Bangladesh to the Caribbean countries, offshore heaven of the world,and seldom integrated them back to Foreign Ministry. An indication of how they perceive Bangladesh. Last year,British govt even dissolved UKAid and merged it with Foreign and Commonwealth Office.⁶

Many argue that incidence of poverty increased in spite of the various safety net programs taken in the last couple of years.COVID-19 deteriorated the situation.That means over the years through various poverty alleviation measures,except micro credit, we failed to create a sustainable system of poverty alleviation. Micro credit institutions play crucial role to meet the working capital need of micro and small entrepreneurs. But resource mobilization and policy formulation are tasks of policy planners. And we see wrong policy and corruption often deprived the target population and derailed us from reaching the destination.

To me, fight against global warming is an individual one rather than a state-backed one.Individual can reduce carbon emission through his consumption and the way he or she lives the life. Eating less meat,consuming staple that requires less methane in the cultivation process, less dependence on fossil fuel,avoiding air-conditioned environment etc significantly improve one’s carbon emission footprint. The more conscious a nation is, the better will be its carbon footprint.Involving a corrupt state where there is lack of accountability into negotiations with perpetrators of worsening global warming is more like to play the role of a complice in a crime. Many govts may finance the pledges. But the corrupt institutions and agencies, often trained by these countries, did little to stop corruption in the disbursement and implementation of such funds. And through clandestine channels some of the misappropriated money ended up in foreign overseas banks. While one points donors’ failure to attain the goals, they will simply shrugged their responsibilities,telling the sum they paid over the years. Victim country will be double loser even if this is a simple grant because cost of $1 illicit outflow is more than receiving $1 legally. It is simply because one has to pay more taka to purchase $1 unofficially in a bid to launder it abroad. Victim country is the net loser in the sense it will face all the impacts of climate change and it cannot blame the perpetrators for not playing their roles. Even worst is that stolen money ends up in political campaign of powerful countries,dragging victim country into unwanted debate. The likelihood of which is higher than ever before.

Hydrocarbon business is booming. There is no short of investment. I am not against hydrocarbon business. Bangladesh is one of the countries that benefit a lot from this business as millions of its workers work in the Middle Eastern countries. But many find it hypocratic to call others to reduce carbon emission while engaging in activities that only increase the temperature. Without any course correction, insisting others for commitment only creates suspicion and distrust.

Notes And References :

1 “Bangladesh Pitches For Climate Sensitive Growth”,Kamran Reza Chowdhury,https://thethirdpole.net,October 25,2021 Link here

2 “Bangladesher Ucchovilashi Lokkho,Purone Chai 15 Lakh Koti Taka(‘Ambitious Goal’ of Bangladesh,Tk 15 Lakh Crores Required)”,Iftekhar Mahmud, Daily Prothom Alo,November 02,2021.

3 “TIB :Over 50% Climate Mitigation Funds Lost To Corruption, Mismanagement ”,Mehedi Al Amin,Dhaka Tribune,November 05,2020 Link here

4 “TIB Study : 14% to 76% Corruption Found In Climate Change Projects”,Sohel All Mamun,Dhaka Tribune, December 24,2021Link here

5 “Bishwabanker Rin Bondho,Sonkote Mayorra(World Bank Loan Stops,Mayors Are In Crisis) ”,Arifur Rahman,Daily Prothom Alo,August 11,2021 Link here

6 Department For International Development Link here

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(29 octobre --- 05 novembre)

Selon un reportage, 17% de gens n'ont pas participé dans le deuxième programme de mass vaccination à travers du pays.

Selon un reportage, luttes intestines du parti en exercice dans école de médecin à Chattogram ont laissé 3 blessés dont un a subit des blessures graves.

Selon un reportage, des fidèles du maire de Cox's Bazar sont descendus dans la rue et ont commencé agitation contre 4 plaintes contre lui.

Demise Of A Goose

Lights go off in an RMG factory,
Leaving jobless and worry for industry.
Reasons unearthed for its demise,
Miss out the one,unpleasant to surmise.

Closure of one of Bangladesh's biggest RMG units augurs ill to the golden goose of Bangladesh economy. Already reeling from safety and poor conditions of work issues at the factory,Corona served further blow to the ailing industry that accounts two-third of the exports of the country. Following the repeated pleas from the exporters, government announced soft credit packages to get rid of Corona related difficulties. However,the assistance did little to help as many misused it by paying back old loans or laundering money abroad. Gravity of the matter even prompted Central Bank to warn the banks about misuse of Covid assistance package.

During the pandemic,one after another major brands in the West shut down their operations.Closure of Opex added another bad news. In its successful years,annual turnover reached $500 million. One of its factories is located at the neighbourhood I grew up and live. I witnessed first hand how such factories helped local economy. House rent ,grocery business and thriving kitchen market swelled the local economy. Nowadays, the brand made lots of headlines for workers' agitation. Angry workers often blocked the key Dhaka-Chattogram highway,lifeline of Bangladesh's economy. Many put forward the reasons behind the closure as housing the 45,000 workers at one place,successor issue,loosing orders,mismanagement etc. But it once again reveals the ugly truth that our conglomerates cannot stay long in the business. Lifespan of most of our conglomerates does not last long.

Few years ago I read a feature that revealed the top 10 companies of Bangladesh in each of the 4 decades. I discovered that companies dominated in a decade or better to say under a regime did not manage to continue the domination in the subsequent decades. Many just shrunk or wound down businesses in the face of odds. This shed some light on the prevailing business environment in Bangladesh.

Most of businesses started their journey under a favorable regime. In addition,the era of permit raj,quota,licence etc that involve lots of bureaucratic operations witnessed the crony businesses to grow. Later many of the groups splintered or dropped from the race when the tide turned against them.

Opex started its journey back in 1984.A former military officer hailing from a family that has a firm footing in myriad sectors set up the conglomerate. As it was the trend then many members of the family became MPs and ministers, and obviously the group gained a lot from the influences of the power grab. Quota was still in play and certain ministries were responsible for its distribution. And those close to the power corridors grabbed the opportunity.

I find some of the reasons put forward hard to swallow. Adverse situations that it faced over the last 10 years could also be a reason for its demise. Recurrence of workers agitation at factory premises that had reputation for clearing payments in line with the image of a top conglomerate not only hampered the operations of the factory but also strangulated Dhaka-Chattogram highway,lifeline of Bangladesh economy.

Furthermore, it is not clear whether it received ample government assistance to keep the factory floating. Many upstart and fake factory received assistance with little effort since this government assumed power. According to a news report,banks discontinue back-to-back LC facility sensing its troubles. A company with $500 million turnover a decade ago ended up in such a sorry state.

Look at the banks that invested here. A bad patch on a good company,once shined under a favorable regime, rendered their money bad. And closure of factory means wiping out of 45,000 jobs. Another example of what crony capitalism does to an economy.

Fate of Citycell,Opex is the inevitable flaws in industrialization and doing business in Bangladesh,pretty common where governance is weak,rule of law is subjective and business is mingled with politics. It is dead wrong to put forward only business and economic reasons as sole factors for demise of a factory.

Notes And References:

1 “Opex:Businesses Will Think Twice Before Building Such Large Factory Units”,Saddam Hossain, Dhaka Tribune,October 28,2021Link here

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(22 octobre --- 29 octobre)

Selon un reportage, un ferry plein de 17 véhicules et 100 passagers a fait chavirer à Paturia,Manikganj.

Selon un reportage, presque 85 plaintes ont été déposées contre 24000 personnes dans les incidents de vandalisme au milieu de Durga Puja à travers du pays.

Selon un reportage, violence dans les élections municipales a tué 2 personnes et laissé 52 blessées dans 8 villes.

Scars In Celebration

Rumor mills cause mayhem unprecedented,
Uncivilized minds fall prey to plan of groups regimented.
Spending more on development of human resources
Could stem the attack planned by evil forces.

Another bout of communal attack against the minority community amid Durga Puja celebration has severely challenged the communal harmony and social fabric of Bangladesh. It happened at a time when Bangladesh is celebrating its 50th anniversary of independence and boasting its achievement in infrastructure projects that even a decade ago none would believe achievable.

What marred the mood of celebration is the negligence of law-enforcement agencies. This year this is second such communal violence that did damage to property and lives and made international headlines. If one googles 50th anniversary celebration of independence of Bangladesh ,one will see news and pictures of agitators pelting stones towards police or seminary students attacking Brahmanbaria rail station in protest of Indian PM's official visit to Bangladesh ,certainly not the celebration news reports Bangladeshis expected in world media. A damaging publicity to brand Bangladesh.

When we have this kind of crowd who are susceptible to agitate on slightest instance of disinformation or custom-made stories then it is indeed hard to create a cohesive and inclusive society, vital for a nation to prosper and set example for others.

This latest bout is different from other incidents as Police played a controversial role and feared such attack amid Durga Puja celebration. And vandalism spread others parts long after the first occurrence at a Puja celebration spot in Cumilla. The culprits behind the Cumilla incident have been arrested. But who are behind them is still being investigated. Here are my observations¹:

1. Long before the latest bout of vandalism, a group of youtubers preached hatred towards Hindus particularly ISKCON.A former Major of Bangladesh Army now staying in Canada in an interview with a Bangladeshi journalist who is now in exile in USA did not hide his antagonism towards ISKCON and claimed former BJP governor to Tripura on a train trip through Bangladesh told his entourage: “these were all Hindu temples once and converted into mosques",pointing the mosques dotted the landscape. The major claimed former governor had requested PM Hasina to transform them into temple again. This kind of disinformation was spread unabated through social media.

2. Former secretary to the Minister of Labor and Immigrants Welfare was charged by Police for the corruption allegations made against him.This personal secretary was known as Mr 15% in Gopalganj. Minister was former Father-in-law of the PM's daughter. He was part of the faction that attacked houses of District General Secretary of ruling party, a Hindu,and his fault was he failed to attend an iftar party.His cases made way to the arrest of ruling party goons,loyalists to ruling party minister.This is a serious development as such high political figure has never been implicated before.

3. Current Police Chief, who had earlier been DG of RAB, in a press conference feared that there might have been attack in Hindu interests during Durga Puja. The information divulged in the wake of Boat Club controversy where a film star was detained for causing troubles at the club where Police Chief is the president, a post not to be held by public servant. Later, embarrassing photographs of a Police officer and the star severely tarnished image of Police. The star's mentor was also grilled in Police custody.

During his term as RAB DG, encounter of a ruling party counselor in Cox's Bazar by a RAB personnel created lots of controversy at home and abroad. He did not do any probe there. In addition, as RAB DG he had also witnessed the worst terror incident in Bangladesh's history. Government did not replace him. Later Police in an announcement said there had been no threat to Durga Puja. Only Ansars,however, deployed to provide security to the Puja Mondops.

4. A Police inspector implicated in the controversy of an e-commerce platform was detained by BSF while he was on his way to Nepal through India for intrusion. He was later handed down to West Bengal Police. Despite repeated request of repatriation, Indian Police turned deaf to Bangladesh Police's call.

5. A Bangladeshi Court recently cleared the way for ensuring Hindu widow's rights over the property of her husband. Many groups objected such radical changes in the law. In addition, corruption verdict of a former Chief Justice,who had left Dhaka under ruling party threat, was scheduled to be held in the middle of October. But the hearing was delayed further following the communal attack.

6. A high-profile Rohingya leader was shot dead at a camp in Cox's Bazar. He was successful to mobilize crowds to observe Rohingya genocide day and helped to prepare evidence against Myanmar Army Chief in Rohingya genocide case. He even met President Donald Trump. In many YouTube channels his killing was portrayed as an act by Indian and Myanmar spy agencies.

7. Recently BNP consulted with leaders and loyalists of various districts and planned to launch a movement to electoral reforms and fresh election.

8. PM is about to set off an official visit to Europe where she may conclude several defense deals. European governments are less reluctant to sell weapons to countries with poor human rights records.

A British Navy ship HMS Kent arrived in an official visit to Bangladesh when the vandalism unfolded.

Thawing relations between Bangladesh and India witnessed boom in RMG export to India and Indian credit line including defense sector for defense purchase. India even offered its credit line to purchase an European fighter that it is currently using. Such communal tension may wipe out such offer from the table and makes way for others.

These incidents and things in part or full contributed to the recent vandalism. Subsequent investigations may shed further light.

But many here tried to portray the rise of nationalistic force across the border a threat to Bangladesh. It is indeed wrong to tag BJP and Sangha Paribar with other dogmatic groups in the region in the same category. We often forget the ruling party in India often sorted many political disputes through legal battle in the court, not through vandalism or muscle power. Here is part of my take on improving relationship and making a lasting bond with the spiritual group behind BJP:

As Bangladesh turned 50, regional connectivity and cooperation echoed in the messages and speeches of leaders of this region. Being the big country of this subcontinent, no scheme would come to fruition without the right kind of support from India. And the group Modi represents holds significant leverage in power corridor, politics, security establishment, corporate India, strategic community and society in India. Unless the group throws its weight around any regional connectivity plan, it will be difficult for the countries to connect the region and accelerate economic activities.

During his stay in Bangladesh, Modi paid visit and offered prayers to two ancient temples: one in Satkhira dated back to the era of Lakshman Sen and the other one in Gopalganj belonging to a community known as "Motua" who holds considerable influence in the politics of West Bengal and other Indian states. There is no doubt after Modiji's visit the two ancient temples will draw bigger crowds in the coming years. Time has come that Bangladesh embarks on a campaign to attract foreign tourists in these sites.

Similarly, Bangladesh government could offer land to spiritual group Modiji represents to set up an institution that will spread the ethos, teachings and the concept of "Hindutya" or "India" to people representing other faith groups.

Bangladesh could be the ideal place for such institution for two reasons. First, Bangladesh is a Muslim majority country and the Muslims are presented in the media as rival to the spiritual group. People from all around the world subscribe to this institution and get an idea of their lessons and visions. Second, it will help removing any ambiguity and dispel propaganda about their pacific beliefs. Bangladesh will have advantage making lasting bond with this group.

Moreover, India shows respect and attaches great importance to the relationship with Bangladesh. In recent years, envoys sent by India as High Commissioners to Bangladesh rose to superior positions in the country's Foreign Ministry. From those positions, they hold leverage to clear and implement any initiative that will bring the countries closer and improve common people's lives. Except few other countries, no other countries show this kind of respect towards Bangladesh.

In that light, inviting Modiji in the celebration of Independence day was right and judicious one. His presence not only bolstered ties but paved the paths for trouble-free future cooperation. Recently World Bank did a study and revealed that regional connectivity would augment Bangladesh's GDP by 17% and India's by 7%. While other nations collaborate on sending missions to Mars and moon and production on vaccine, our region could not emerge from poverty,communal hatred, ignorance, corruption and parochialism.Trivial issues still lead to spilling of blood and destruction of property. These are encumbrances towards forming a common market.

To stem recurrence of communal attack, we need to change the change textbooks and include history,anecdotes and literature on riots, holocaust so that students at tender age understand evil of such hatred and have a negative impression to such heinous acts. On the part of concrete actions, Bangladesh could outlaw such hatred and raised the penalty for such crimes. In addition, Bangladesh could also secure the interests of minority groups by amending the constitution. At the same time, Bangladesh and India could ink special deal to contain the risk emanating from nature or human-made disaster. Under the light of such deal, specialized forces may jointly conduct cross border operations like arrest,investigation,rescue, relief etc that forces of a particular country cannot do because of religious and personal reasons.

Disinformation continues unabated. Many spread falshood in the social media that such attack paved the path for future intervention of Indian Army,which will march down the Dhaka street in near future. Back in August this year,Bangladesh Army units took part in the march past of Indian Independence Day celebration in Delhi. On 16 December, Indian Army along with Russian and Mexican Army will take part in the march past on national parade square on the occasion of 50th anniversary of Bangladesh’s victory.

There is no denying that to fight such disinformation we have to develop our human resources. So we have to invest a lot in this sector. And to get rid of the rumor mill, there is no alternative to a free press. Before spending billions on purchasing arms, it is more sensible to spend few millions on building institutions to make good citizens. This step at least will not put us into shame when we will celebrate 100th anniversary of our independence.

Notes And References:

1 “Connecting Communities “,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,March 27,2021Link here