La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(19 novembre --- 26 novembre)

Selon un reportage, un étudiant a été tué par frappe d’un camion appartenant à mairie de Dacca nord. Ses amis et étudiants sont descendus dans la rue et ont manifesté contre la tuerie. Avant les étudiants demandent ristourne dans le frais de bus après une étudiante avait été menacée de viol par adjoint de bus.

Selon un reportage, Police mexicaine a secouru 600 migrants dont 37 Bangladais depuis Veracruz.

Selon un reportage, 6 personnes ont été tuées dans la troisième tour d’élection rurale.

Selon un reportage, 33 éléphants dont 20 électrocutés ont été tués dans l’année actuelle. En 2020,20 éléphants ont été tués.

Motorbike Accident:It's Time To Ponder

Surge in bike accident,
Leaves casualties with no precedent.
Cyclist-police and social credit score,
Work better than just spending crore.

Motorbike accidents have increased by 63.60% in the first ten months of this year. Road Safety Foundation has revealed it in a press conference. 1758 persons died in 1653 accidents in this time period. What is worrying 75% of the dead belonged to 14-45 years old age group.¹

Not only motorbike accidents, there has been a spike in road accidents in Bangladesh. Back in February last year,I penned a piece titled “Unruly Road,Unsafe Lives”. Sharing part of it again:

As the number of vehicle plying over the road increases, so does the number of accident. Addition of new car and bus will not stop. Similarly, new asphalt roads are also being stretched out. But how can we reduce the incidence of growing number of accidents? Reducing the number of vehicle is not a pragmatic solution. Better traffic management and responsible driving could be the possible solution.

I recently delved into Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Pocket Book 2018, BBS pocket book 2016, BBS pocket book 2012, Bangladesh Economic Review 2018 and some leading dailies to gather data on casualty and registered vehicles between 2009 and 2018. Data on casualty from 2015 to 2018 gleaned mostly from leading dailies. Maybe that is the number of casualty is unusually high in this period. Meanwhile, data prior to 2015 and registered vehicles were collected from BBS pocket book , BER and Accident Research Institute,BUET. Unofficial figures may vary from official ones.

(Source: BBS Pocket Book 2012,2016,2018;BER 2018;BUET & leading dailies)

Despite the official-unofficial difference, there is no gainsaying that there has been a surge in accident between 2015 and 2018. This post does not intend to probe underlying reasons for the sudden rise in accidents. Rather it tries to underscore the gravity of the problem.

I transformed the two into natural log variables and then ran a regression between ln_casualty and ln_registered_vehicle. Since the data is time series in nature, I checked for serial correlation in the disturbance term. Luckily Durbin-Watson statistic reported no autocorrelation. (d=1.8382 prior to log natural transformation and d= 1.3638 after regression; for 10 observations and 1 explanatory variable.)

Having finished for diagnostic check, I went for analyzing the result. F-test was found to be significant(F=7.207, p= 0.027, df=1,8).Coefficient for ln_registered_vehicle turned out to be statistically significant(b2=1.37, t=2.68, p=0.027). However, the intercept was found to be statistically insignificant (b1=-10.948, t=-1.468, p=1.800).

From the given data, it appears that a 1% increase in registered vehicle contributes to a 1.37% increase in casualty number.

Certainly, I am not saying increasing number of vehicle provokes accident. The point is reckless driving and lack of enforcement of law aggravate the road accident problem. An array of posts could be churned out on what the traffic laws say. Since the objective is to capture the gravity of the problem, I am not treading that path and restrict my discussion on how worse it has become.²

Reckless driving by the bikers has been identified one of the reasons for death in roads by Road Safety Foundation report. As I regularly stroll on the streets of Dhaka, I know that every bit of that word is true. Many bikers run their bikes on footpath in a bid to reach their destination as soon as possible. In addition, empty streets often become a test ground for maneuvering their skills. Blowing horn every now and then is another sign of utter disregard for the surroundings and people. Often innocent pedestrians, napping housewives and toddlers,senior citizens bear full brunt of unwanted troubles.

Enforcing laws against biker-breacher could improve the situation. Like Thailand, Bangladesh could introduce bicycle-police in their 20’s to identify minor transgressors and oblige them to follow traffic rules. Social credit score could be another alternative. Bikers with poor social credit score may see their licenses suspended temporarily.

As we embrace the new normal on unruly roads--- unending traffic jam, agonizing working hours lost in roads, misfit drivers and vehicles, undocumented money whitening project, no respect for law---the truth is becoming clear that educating the driver , people is as relevant as enforcing the law. At the same time, all the corrupt practices, including the black money whitening project, should be put to an end without further ado.

Notes And References:

1 “ Motorbike Accidents Left 1758 Deads In 10 Months”,Bangladesh News,November 18,2021 Link here

2 “Unruly Roads, Unsafe Lives”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/, February 08,2020Link here

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(12 novembre --- 19 novembre)

Selon un reportage, violence dans la troisième tour des élections municipales a tué 1 personne et blessé 12 à travers du pays.

Selon un reportage, Dacca est classé la 4ème ville plus polluée à 9 heure du matin dans le monde dans l’indice de l’air pollution.

Selon un reportage, 1653 accidents de moto ont été registrés par Road Safety Foundation dans les premiers 10 mois de 2021. Il y a une augmentation de 63,60 % dans les accidents de moto en 1 un.

UP Election 2021: Atmosphere Degenerates

Surge in violence in UP poll,
Causing mayhem and swelling death toll.
It rings alarm for democracy and constitution,
And poses danger amid no reconciliation.

Second round of Union Parishod Elections turned out to be violent. 27 lives lost in the violence in UP polls. Death tally reached 32,including 5 in the first round,at the end of 2-round of election. It is assumed that we have buried the violent culture during UP elections. But the result and atmosphere prevailed during the UP elections proved us dead wrong. Degree of violence was unprecedented and invoked memories of 80’s and 90’s. In 2016,84 people fell victim to violence. In 2021,the 2-round alone claimed 32 lives.¹

(Image credit: https://rezaulhoque.wordpress.com)

From the past record ,we could see that only 50 lives lost in 1997;in 2003,80 deaths reported;another 83 deaths were reported in 2011.²Following the UP Election,I wrote a piece titled “UP Election 2016: Back To Square One” where I delved into stat of fatalities on past UP elections.Comparing death tolls of earlier elections, we can see electoral violence related death rose in subsequent elections. Many argued that number of death could have been lowered if government had deployed troops with formidable authority across the country prior to elections. In earlier elections, law-enforcing agencies used to carry out drive against illegal small arms and professional criminals in a bid to contain electoral violence. Such drive was conspicuously absent ahead of this election.²

As main opposition party BNP was not present, factional clashes and rival candidates stole the headlines. A critical election commissioner did not hide his emotions. He said: “Election in this country is in ICU and democracy is in life support…lack of reconciliation among key parties pushed democracy into death bed.” He also added:”Separate electoral body is required to hold UP elections. As EC does not decide the process of UP polls why should EC bear responsibility of such elections?”³

Not only in rural councils,governance situation deteriorated in City Corporations. In my previous post I shed some light on it. Disciples of Borishal City mayor vandalized the city after a bureaucrat had refused to take off posters put up by another candidates from walls of his premises. Secretary to Cumilla City Corporation was identified in taking part in vandalism during the Durgapuja. Disciples of Cox's Bazaar City mayor cut the city for 5-long hours from rest of Bangladesh and littered the streets with garbage after murder cases had been filed against him. These incidents left a blot in the reputation of local governments.

The point is unequal participation and power sharing at grassroot level not just took off the lid of cesspool of violence but pushed back democracy to that time when unwarranted violence was regular activity.

Rural council election is very important for a politician at the grassroot level and it is paramount to his existence.As we are living in a time of “winner takes all”,a win could give the candidate unrestrained access to command over local resources and a license to plunder money allotted to local projects. Astronomical sum they spend on campaign hints that it is matter of life or death.

All the parties and the state endorsed organized violence in dealing with rivals and in carrying out assigned tasks. Hence it spread to grass root level and disturbed the tranquil and mundane country life in rural areas, which are not an incubator of anger and hatred like the urban areas.²

As I wrote back in 2016,the message did not diminish in unraveling the true state of democracy.Sharing it again:

UP election violence only accentuated absence of strong democratic institutions and rule of an authoritarian regime. To have a firm footing at grass root level, government backed candidates picked up the weapon of unwarranted hooliganism and allowed the malpractices of governance to spread in rural areas. This election has already dealt a heavy blow to the fragile democratic process that is striving to back on track.²

Notes And References:

1 “Sohingshotae Pran Gelo Chhoy Joner(Violence Claims Six Lives)”,Prothom Alo,November 12,2021

2 “UP Election 2016: Back To Square One”,Rezaul Hoque,April 27,2016,https://rezaulhoque.wordpress.com,Link here

3 “Nirbachon ICU the Gonotontro Life Support e: Mahbub Talukder(Election in ICU,Democracy in Life Support: Mahbub Talukder) “,Sylhet Today24,November 14,2021Link here

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(05 novembre---12 novembre)

Selon un reportage, grève appelé par patron de bus en signe de protestation contre augmentation du prix de gazole a asphyxié la vie pour 3 jours à travers du pays.

Selon un reportage, violence dans élections municipales a tué 27 personnes et blessé 106. Scrutin dans 10 bureaux de vote a été reporté à cause de violence.

Selon un reportage, un éléphant a été électrocuté à mort à Sherpur.

Commitment Or New Alley For Corruption?

Fighting global warming is not just the state's pledge,
Individual commitment is the best hedge.

As countries and various parties in Glasgow are at loggerhead to confine the rate of annual temperature rise to 1.5° celcius by the end of this century,there has been little sign of optimism that they will be able to do that. In the mean time, Bangladesh has chalked out a plan (Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC) to reduce carbon emission by 22% by 2030,higher than 7% of the goal set by Bangladesh back in 2015. The plan,submitted to United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change,envisages that Bangladesh will finance reduction of 6.73% carbon emission while the donors will finance the rest of its reduction commitment. Bangladesh requires $176 billion in this regard.^{1 & 2}

The commitment demonstrates Bangladesh’s eagerness in reducing carbon emission. However, Bangladesh’s past record in managing climate fund is not clean.Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) last year in a study found that 54% of the climate mitigation funds allotted to 7 projects were swindled and one of the culprit was secretary to a minister.³In addition, TIB in another study found 14% to 76% corruption in 4 climate change projects,with a budget of Tk 1,102 crores where Tk 191 crores were swindled.⁴

The outcome of foreign funded projects never ended with a happy note. Look at the status of Election Commission,Police and CHT region.UNDP led initiatives to reform electoral process of Bangladesh, modernization of Police and development of Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) brought only embarrassment to the stakeholders.UKAID and other donors mobilized resources so that the projects would meet the desired ends.The outcomes turned out to be costly for the nation. A controversial election was staged in 2018,Tk 4000 crores were misappropriated by a powerful state organ that contributes to UN peace mission in the name of introducing Electronic Voting Machine(EVM), a special hearing on human rights abuse by Police was held in Switzerland by an UN agency and an eruption of gun violence in CHT claiming lives of many indigenous leaders. This has been common trend of project financed by donors in Bangladesh.

And Bangladesh is replete with examples how such projects backfired. World Bank funded local governments like City Corporations ( Pourasava) and Zila Parishads through Bangladesh Municipal Development Fund(BMDF) so that they could become independent financially and accountable to local people. After a decade,it stopped funding in the project as hardly any of them showed any positive impact.⁵ Cox's Bazaar which could be the richest City Corporation of Bangladesh even sought Tk 26 crores to BMDF. Now look at the kind of people chaired these institutions. Borishal City Mayor and his disciples vandalized the city over a row with a bureaucrat. Secretary to Cumilla City Corporation was identified in taking part in vandalism during the Durgapuja. Disciples of Cox's Bazaar City mayor cut the city for 5-long hours from rest of Bangladesh and littered the streets with garbage after murder cases had been filed against him.

What is worrying illicit financial flow has also become a problem for the country. The figure continues to rise. Many donor countries often appointed their former ambassadors to Bangladesh to the Caribbean countries, offshore heaven of the world,and seldom integrated them back to Foreign Ministry. An indication of how they perceive Bangladesh. Last year,British govt even dissolved UKAid and merged it with Foreign and Commonwealth Office.⁶

Many argue that incidence of poverty increased in spite of the various safety net programs taken in the last couple of years.COVID-19 deteriorated the situation.That means over the years through various poverty alleviation measures,except micro credit, we failed to create a sustainable system of poverty alleviation. Micro credit institutions play crucial role to meet the working capital need of micro and small entrepreneurs. But resource mobilization and policy formulation are tasks of policy planners. And we see wrong policy and corruption often deprived the target population and derailed us from reaching the destination.

To me, fight against global warming is an individual one rather than a state-backed one.Individual can reduce carbon emission through his consumption and the way he or she lives the life. Eating less meat,consuming staple that requires less methane in the cultivation process, less dependence on fossil fuel,avoiding air-conditioned environment etc significantly improve one’s carbon emission footprint. The more conscious a nation is, the better will be its carbon footprint.Involving a corrupt state where there is lack of accountability into negotiations with perpetrators of worsening global warming is more like to play the role of a complice in a crime. Many govts may finance the pledges. But the corrupt institutions and agencies, often trained by these countries, did little to stop corruption in the disbursement and implementation of such funds. And through clandestine channels some of the misappropriated money ended up in foreign overseas banks. While one points donors’ failure to attain the goals, they will simply shrugged their responsibilities,telling the sum they paid over the years. Victim country will be double loser even if this is a simple grant because cost of $1 illicit outflow is more than receiving $1 legally. It is simply because one has to pay more taka to purchase $1 unofficially in a bid to launder it abroad. Victim country is the net loser in the sense it will face all the impacts of climate change and it cannot blame the perpetrators for not playing their roles. Even worst is that stolen money ends up in political campaign of powerful countries,dragging victim country into unwanted debate. The likelihood of which is higher than ever before.

Hydrocarbon business is booming. There is no short of investment. I am not against hydrocarbon business. Bangladesh is one of the countries that benefit a lot from this business as millions of its workers work in the Middle Eastern countries. But many find it hypocratic to call others to reduce carbon emission while engaging in activities that only increase the temperature. Without any course correction, insisting others for commitment only creates suspicion and distrust.

Notes And References :

1 “Bangladesh Pitches For Climate Sensitive Growth”,Kamran Reza Chowdhury,https://thethirdpole.net,October 25,2021 Link here

2 “Bangladesher Ucchovilashi Lokkho,Purone Chai 15 Lakh Koti Taka(‘Ambitious Goal’ of Bangladesh,Tk 15 Lakh Crores Required)”,Iftekhar Mahmud, Daily Prothom Alo,November 02,2021.

3 “TIB :Over 50% Climate Mitigation Funds Lost To Corruption, Mismanagement ”,Mehedi Al Amin,Dhaka Tribune,November 05,2020 Link here

4 “TIB Study : 14% to 76% Corruption Found In Climate Change Projects”,Sohel All Mamun,Dhaka Tribune, December 24,2021Link here

5 “Bishwabanker Rin Bondho,Sonkote Mayorra(World Bank Loan Stops,Mayors Are In Crisis) ”,Arifur Rahman,Daily Prothom Alo,August 11,2021 Link here

6 Department For International Development Link here

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(29 octobre --- 05 novembre)

Selon un reportage, 17% de gens n'ont pas participé dans le deuxième programme de mass vaccination à travers du pays.

Selon un reportage, luttes intestines du parti en exercice dans école de médecin à Chattogram ont laissé 3 blessés dont un a subit des blessures graves.

Selon un reportage, des fidèles du maire de Cox's Bazar sont descendus dans la rue et ont commencé agitation contre 4 plaintes contre lui.