Thursday, December 31, 2020

Finding Alternate Staple

Rising price of rice pushes millions to starvation,
Mismatch between storage and demand data demands explanation.
In the past, rice crisis led to famine like situation.
Finding alternate staple calls for attention.

Rice price soars up again. According to Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, coarse rice is selling between Tk 46 and Tk 50 in Dhaka. This causes hardships to lower income groups who depend on this kind of staple. The cause of the recent hike has yet to be ascertained.

A news report says government has decided to import 1 million ton of rice to support its social safety net programs. Meanwhile government has also nodded affirmatively to private importers' proposal to import another 1 million ton of rice in a bid to stabilize the market.

In another development that coincides with the rice price hike, onion price comes down as major onion exporting country lifts the ban from onion export.

Pandemic contributed to fall in mean wages in informal sector where a large part of consumers of coarse rice work to feed their families. Despite several natural calamities and rise in prices for other crops, government repeatedly assured that price of rice would not be grave concern as both the production and stock of rice was good and commensurate with market demand.

What can be construed from the news report is that rice mill owners refuse to sell rice to government at government fixed price. They demand more. So government's ongoing rice purchase program has hit a dead end.

I don't have access to current data on rice demand and production. But it appears that few operators control the whole grain market. Government institutions have some reservation revealing up-to-the-minute data on kitchen commodities. And private operators will seldom publish the true data. As demand for such staple is highly inelastic, there will be l change or reduction in rice consumption.

Since Boro, a winter crop heavily depends on irrigation, constitutes a major part of total rice yield, we have to wait for some months to see the full benefits of falling oil price in rice production.

It is anticipated that Boro production cost will be lower as inputs like urea will be much less costlier than previous year.As natural gas price is also lower in the international market, so making urea from natural gas will be less costly this year. So hopefully, Boro rice will be cheaper next year if everything goes well.

When it comes to lessen our carbon footprint, I think it is better to depend less on rice. Rice production process heavily hinges on oil and fertilizer like urea. Swampy ground of Bangladesh is more suitable for rice cultivation. In addition, its preparation is not as labor intensive as baking bread or preparation of other food. No wonder why it has become so popular staple food in Bangladesh.

Finding another staple, to substitute it or to lessen burden on it, is not easy due to cultivation and preparation challenges. Potato could be think of a close substitute.But swampy and waterlogged land hinder its widespread cultivation. In addition,like rice it cannot be cultivated 3 times a year.

Most crucial challenge in making potato main staple lies in the food habit of Bangladeshis. In fact, Bangladeshis are not ready yet to see potato as their main staple. Potato is still consumed as in mashed form or in curry form to supplement the main staple rice. Getting used to potato as main staple will take a long time and require popularization program and commitment.

Sweet potato could be another alternative that vies for main staple. Again the reasons put forward for not popularizing the potato will be applicable here.

The best way to reduce our dependence on rice is to switch to other forms of rice. Muri(puffed rice) and Chira(parched rice) are still consumed as snacks. The two could easily enter as main meal. When they are being consumed, amount consumed at a fixed time is much less than that of rice. Their relatively hard and crispy texture makes the chewing time longer. This will significantly contribute to reduce per capita rice consumption.

Lessening our dependence on rice is not only essential to curb our carbon footprint , but is also important for protecting the habitats for other animal. There are reports that wild animals got killed when they damaged the crops of paddy fields near forests in search of foods. Nowadays, this kind of incident crops up on far too many occasions.

It is a pity that whenever ruling party rules the country rice crisis reaches an embarrassing point.In the 40s , it was one of ruling party founder's wrong policy that contributed to the worst famine of the undivided Bengal. In 1974, inequality and mismanagement again caused another famine.

It is not yet known what causes the current rice price hike. But a year ago, if we remember, it was politically backed big rice traders who were blamed for the soaring price of rice.

It is a shame that we have not yet taken any steps that at least correctly forecast future demand and consumption so that rising food price does not push millions of people to starvation and poverty.

As Bangladesh is turning fifty next year, it is a pity that we have not yet emerged out from the image of a starving nation. Finding an alternate staple is as important as getting our forecast on future production and consumption of main staple right.

Saturday, December 26, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(18 décembre --- 25 décembre)

un reportage, 75% de 286 lits de réanimation sont remplis dans les hôpitaux à Dacca. Le service de réanimation est occupé dans les premiers 5 hôpitaux publics à Dacca.

Selon un reportage, un éléphant a été tué par balles à Cox's Bazar. L'éléphant est descendu dans un champ de poivre en causant dégâts au champ. A partir du début de novembre jusqu'au 23 décembre, 5 éléphants ont été tués par balles et électrocution à Cox's Bazar.

Selon un reportage, l'autorité de l'université de Dacca a décidé de démolir la cantine et le centre de rassemblement, œuvre d'un architecte grec Constantinos Doxiadis. La décision a provoqué polémique.

Selon un reportage, le parquet de Dacca a condamné un ancien colonel de l'armée de la terre à 9 ans de prison dans fraude fiscale.

Selon un reportage, le renseignement policier a trouvé un ancien conseiller coupable pour avoir blanchi l'argent.

Selon un reportage, cadavre d'une stagiaire de paramilitaire a été trouvé pendu depuis le toit dans un appartement à Azimpur, Dacca.

Sunday, December 20, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(11 décembre --- 18 décembre)

un reportage, le gouvernement a changé la décision d' annuler la Foire du livre qui aura lieu à l'occasion de la journée de la langue maternelle, 21 février, l'année prochaine. Les maisons d' édition ont fortement opposé la décision. Elles ont mis l'accent sur décalage du commencement de la Foire.

Selon un reportage, la Foire de la commerce qui aura lieu en janvier a été décalé de deux mois. Covid-19 a joué un rôle dans le décalage.

Selon un reportage, un bateau «MV Aijdihar» et 7 marins bangladais se sont échoues à Bandar Abbas en Iran. Le patron de bateau est un Américain, originaire de Pakistan. Les marins bangladais sont montés au bateau depuis le port de Mongla. Le bateau n'est pas en bon état. Donc, l'autorité iranienne a saisi le bateau.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a prolongé la fermeture dans les établissements scolaires jusqu'au 16 janvier à cause de Covid-19.

Saturday, December 19, 2020

Republic Of Plunderers & Parasites

What an spectacle of victory!
Inequality,discrimination bury the glory.
There is growing sign of parasitism.
Citizens see no sign of optimism.
As cruel toddler treats its pet,
Smart elites flee abroad to secure their fate.


As Bangladesh steps towards celebrating its 50th anniversary next year, dissimilarities, discrimination, injustice and inequality it fought 50 years ago become more shockingly visible. Cheerleading for overpriced infrastructure projects, where contributions of Bangladeshi companies are infinitesimal and whose implementation are dominated by foreign companies, boasts jingoistic attitude that has little impact on vernacular life of common people. Embryonic zeal of self-determination has turned into parasitism. No short of excuses to misappropriate public money. From private companies to individuals,all depend on government money for survival. This trend could be found from social security expenditures to incentives for business. Even parasitism has become endemic in individual life. A rent-seeking class has emerged, exploiting others' hard earned income. Land grabbing, forest grabbing, extortion, squeezing father-in-law (sometimes brother/sister-in-law or in-laws in general) whenever odd situation strikes have become common practice in order to prosper in personal life.(Nowadays stealing someone's creative work, article, plagiarism are also becoming pretty common; another indication of growing sign of parasitism). Four decades ago ,these things could be viewed as taboo and criminal act. Now they become integral part of Bengali's DNA.Even a decade ago , extortion in the name of " Mukh Mithai"(Sweetening Mouth) was seen as serious transgression. Now everyone gets used to it!

No government spokesman, partisan expert, government statistical pocket book will ever publish this unpleasant truth. Unfortunately this is the reality stands before us in 2020.

There has been delay in publication of Household Income Expenditures Report, which has little credibility. I personally found data mismatches in annual report of Bangladesh Bank and on website of Board of Investment. I also found anomalies in PDF versions of statistical pocket books. Why does a successful and confident government want to hide and fidget data?

Today's Bangladesh contravenes breaking up of Pakistani feudal structure. In fact, feudalism is consolidated in Bangladesh. Wealth has amassed into the hands of few people. Bangladesh outperforms other countries in generating super rich. From DTH service to COVID vaccination program, all are being done by powerful cronies. During the lockdown, I took notice of a news item that revealed that family members of a former minister and businessman left Bangladesh for London on a chartered plane. Former opposition party minister turned out to be relative of ruling party crony through the marriage of their son and daughter.Months after months staffs of former minister's cell phone company demonstrated on the streets for their dues after the company had been incapacitated by lack of bank credit and government cooperation. The former minister and his son already laundered huge money in Singapore. In my earlier piece, I elaborated how mismanagement and corruption in the banks contributed to piling up of Non Performing Loans (NPL).

In rural village, poor people sell their meagre land to loan sharks or local elites in order to go abroad to make a fortune. Policy change, deception, international crisis often lead them to lose their land. Rural land, due to presence of erroneous land dispute settlement, are concentrated into the hands of few powerful people.

Five decades ago, when we got liberated from Pakistan, we owe to Pakistan around $ 5 billion. Now more than $ 5 billion , some estimates put the figure somewhere around $15 billion, are laundered from Bangladesh every year. So Bangladeshis outdid the Pakistanis exploiting the local economy and laundering wealth abroad.Sense of insecurity and hopelessness have increased in magnitude in five decades. Where is the progress in independent Bangladesh?

Three or four decades ago Bangladeshi constructors and engineers built roads and utility lines in Middle East and Maghreb.Now Libyan coast is washed away with Bangladeshi migrants who are desperate to take a perilous boat ride to Europe. Just couple of months ago, Reuters carried out a special story on stranded Bangladeshi in Bosnian jungles.Even in Pakistani period, when poverty was so abject, people did not flee the country in drove. Why are so many people fleeing abroad clandestinely from independent and prosperous country?

Business malpractices also reach worrying level. Earlier adulterating milk with water was prevalent. Now no business is without malpractice. Digital weighing scale is deliberately tempered to give less amount of goods to consumers. Mobile data pack and other services often do not yield the promised amount. Since it is hard to fathom the true consumed value, such malpractices often go unnoticed. Bus fare, auto fare are artificially hiked to whiten black money.

During the colonial time our educational institutions produced brightest minds and there was liberty in freedom of expression.Had there been no freedom of expression, Bengali language would not get the status as it is enjoying now and our struggle to independence would not culminate into full blown armed struggle.

There had been skirmishes and assault on teachers. But now students and teachers both lost their lives in campus. Even teachers cannot speak their minds in campus. Prof Ajoy Roy who taught several decades at Dhaka University despite repeated pleas from relatives in Kolkata to settle there had to bear the news of his son's killing at the university premises. Prof Human Azad, one of the brilliant linguists both Bengals ever produced, was attacked with machete at the university. His son on several occasions was also assaulted at the university.They were attacked for expressing their views and speaking their minds.

Same kind of incidents were purported in other universities.

In the Pakistani period, even undergraduate of a mofussil town knew three languages--- Urdu, English, Bengali--- and wrote impeccable English. From the autobiography of historian Tapan Roy Chowdhury I came to learn that a library in Borishal even ordered French book from foreign publishers because there were readers in that village. We do not have that kind of libraries or independent book shop now.

Back then university produced graduates whose ideas and innovation found global platform and audience. Composite material that was used to build F-15 fighter jet, a reliable platform for many Air Forces, was the brain child of a Dhaka University chemistry graduate. Quantum statistics, which revolutionized scientific analysis, was born at the Curzon Hall in Dhaka University.

Now Pakistani universities assemble their own satellite, excel in reverse engineering , build jet prototypes.

Where are we now? Is there really any intellectual advancement in Bangladesh?

I do not understand why in a well functioning economy there is a silent invasion of drugs. Today yaba or methamphetamine market in Bangladesh is worth $5 billion. The autobiography of veteran journalist Abdul Gaffar Chowdhury shed some light on the tobacco related business in the Pakistani period. Back then 1 million people were employed in "Tendu Pata"(tobacco leaf) related business. Now hardly any business or vocation left where drug money is not invested.

The whole real estate sector is thriving on undocumented money. Government does not question origin of the money invested in real estate sector. Buying and selling flat have become popular mode of legalizing black money as less paperwork is required.Politics has become more violent as black money finds safe sanctuary in politics. Back in pre-independence days , this was unthinkable. Seasoned politicians had some principles back then.

Last leg of Pakistani period witnessed a boom in setting up educational institutions across Bangladesh. Now we see a contest to set up religious seminaries across Bangladesh on empty government lands. Such seminaries guarantee steady stream of revenues from devotees and government does not ask for any explanation how the donation money is spent. In addition, setting up such seminaries brings lucrative donations from Middle Eastern countries. So there is a rat race to become member of the management committee of religious seminaries.

Now there is no public service job quota for women. Stipend program for women is slashed. Minimum marriage age for woman is lowered. Literary works by writers of other faiths are taken off from school text books. Where are we heading ten years later?Should there be any reason to remain complacent?

Bangladeshi rulers have proved that they are the worst rulers than the English and the Pakistanis. Compared to the Bengalis, they were farsighted and compassionate. That was why they built institutions. Bengali rulers treat their citizens like a sadistic toddler treat its pet.All their efforts end up making the country a nightmarish hell.Smart ones among the ruling elites purchase foreign identity. And for the commoners, there is no escape from this republic of sadistic plunderers and parasites.

Saturday, December 12, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(04 décembre --- 11 décembre)

Selon un reportage, une société bangladaise a appelé ses ouvriers qui travaillaient dans un atelier d'une confection en Éthiopie après la guerre risque d' envelopper le pays. Les ouvriers sont retournés au Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, une salariée d' une banque privée a été accusée d'avoir escroqué $ 600.000 depuis la filiale de la banque à New York. La banque a entamé une enquête. Elle est salariée vacataire.

Selon un reportage, ingénieurs ont mis en place viaduc de Padma Bridge, deuxième plus longue pont dans l'Asie de Sud. Le pont de deux-étage , une longueur de 6,15 km , reliera le Sud-est avec le Sud-ouest de Bangladesh. Ingénieurs mettront en place voie ferrée au premier étage et rue asphaltée au deuxième étage. Le coût de pont est effréné, causé assez de polémique dans le pays. Si tout va mieux, le pont sera ouvert pour tous en 2022.

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé un entrepôt à Puran Dhaka, le vieux quartier de Dacca.

Plunder In Disorder

New bout of corruption is seen in bank.
Malpractices reach even low rank.
Bangladesh is high on a fever.
This has become the mot of some clever:
"O wind! put everything in disorder!
Let me relish much of the plunder!"

News reports in recent weeks once again disclose that corruption and malpractices in Banking sector, which has already been reeling from earlier scams, continue unabated. No change in corporate governance and no change in business as usual. The disappointing picture is writ large on all the financial institutions of Bangladesh.

A news report, dated on November 30, says government mulls retaining political appointees in the management board of public banks. In the past this kind of appointment set the path for seeking loan for project deemed not-profitable and triggered corrupt acts abusing the power. This politically motivated projects and mismanagement of the boards in the end contributed to piling up of bad loans (NPL). Back in June 2019, I wrote an analytical piece titled " Default Loans: In Search Of Root Cause" on this blog.

In 2010, the amount of NPL was Tk 227.1 billion and rose to Tk 893.4 billion by the end of June 2018 (Source: Bangladesh Bank). A little less than 50% of those NPLs belonged to state-owned commercial banks (SCBs). Meanwhile, NPLs for private commercial banks(PCBs) and foreign commercial banks(FCBs) stood at Tk 389.8 billion and Tk 22.7 billion respectively. One may argue that SCBs operations and client base are much bigger than those of PCBs and FCBs. Gross NPL to total loan or net NPL to total loan , which Bangladesh Bank uses to measure asset quality, may give a better indication of comparison of bad loans by types of banks. In 2010, gross NPL to total loan by SCBs was 15.7. Meanwhile, it was 3.2 per cent for PCBs and 3.0 per cent for FCBs.(Source: Bangladesh Bank) By the end of June 2018, gross NPL to total loan for SCBs, PCBs and FCBs rose to 28.2, 6.0 and 6.7 percent respectively. It is evident that percentage of bad loans to total loans is far more higher in SCBs than those in PCBs and FCBs. How the decision is made at the management board calls for greater scrutiny.

One of the public banks has come under scanner after a news report divulged that $603,947 had gone missing from an exchange house in New York operated by Janata Bank. Stealing had taken place in the transition period, when outgoing CEO would hand over the responsibility to incoming CEO. A temporary worker had been playing the role of acting CEO in the meantime. The exchange house maintained an account at the Habib American Bank's New York branch. It appeared that the acting CEO did not deposit the money at the Habib Bank account contrary to her claim. While the acting CEO was stopped answering to official emails and shut all the contact with her employers. The Janata Bank authority decided to settle the matter through legal means. It is surprising that a temporary telephone operator turned CEO was given the charge to run an exchange house, which has already been on a loss-making path, in foreign shore. This incident laid bare how clumsily decisions are being made in public financial institutions.

Unbridled corruption is taking place at private banks too. A data entry operator, who got the job by forging educational certificate, swindled Tk 80 million from NCC Bank. He even constructed a six-storey building, bought residential plot and car at native village.

A staff at Premier Bank in Rokeya Sharani branch took loan in the name of two clients manipulating office documents. He invested the money in his family run grocery. One of the victim clients got aware of this when he applied for loans in other bank. Bangladesh Bank has stipulated that client took a certain amount loan not be eligible for further loan. Denial of the client's loan request surfaced the murky scam.

Last year I did a small survey among some rickshaw pullers. One puller shared with me a fraudulent incident. The rickshaw puller opened a deposit account, which would become mature in two years, at a private bank. He regularly deposited the monthly amount in time. By the time the account got matured , he came to learn that he would have to wait for another year for its maturity. He protested. But he was told one of the cashiers did not keep record of any money of his account for a year. Daily wage earners are not even spared from the greed of corrupt staffs.

What we are seeing is mimicking of corrupt practices at individual level in the banks. If the management and high officials could indulge in corrupt practices and go scot free then it is ok for a staff to take one or two "peanuts"! More aptly, trickle down of corrupt practices from top to bottom. When the fever of "Ektu Elo Melo Kore De Ma/ Lute Pute Khai( O wind ! put everything in disorder / let me relish much of the plunder)"[I borrow the lines from a popular song of the film "Jamai 420"] sweeps across the Bangladesh, it would be naive to expect dramatic improvement in corporate governance.

Until the feverish pitch for corruption subsides, replacing one political appointee with another, curtailing the power of central bank, changing regulations, interfering with the decision making process of the management board will not produce the desired outcome in financial institutions. What has to be changed first is the attitude and tolerance towards corruption.

Sunday, December 6, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 25 novembre --- 04 décembre)

Selon un reportage, la société anglaise Debenhams a fait le dépôt de bilan. Covid-19 a repoussé la société, qui achetait beaucoup de vêtements bangladais, vers faillite. La nouvelle a provoqué soucis parmi les exportateurs bangladais. Debenhams ne paie pas encore $70 millions à ses exportateurs bangladais. De plus, les salariés de Debenhams ne reçoivent pas leur arriéré. Ils ont récemment tenu une conférence de presse à ce propos.

Selon un reportage, 119 personnes dont 87 indigènes ont été tués en 3 ans à CHT. Le mercredi Bangladesh a observé 23ème anniversaire de l'accord de paix.

Selon un reportage, Australie a appréhendé un médecin originaire de Bangladesh pour avoir violé femmes et adolescentes là-bas.

Selon un reportage, 9 médecins ont péri en novembre pendant Covid-19. Le bilan est lourd pour médecin bangladais.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh a relogé des Rohingyas dans une petite île, Bhashan Char. Des bateaux de l'armée de la mer et de la terre ont aidé à relogement. L'ONU a exprimé soucis à ce propos. L'ONU a mis l'accent sur volonté de Rohingya dans le cas de relogement.

Selon un reportage, le bureau de l'Anti corruption a trouvé un compte de $1 milliard dans une banque à Singapour. Le compte appartenait à un homme politique bangladais qui a été pendu pour crime de guerre fait en 1971.

Selon un reportage, une bancaire s'est suicidée à Cumilla. Elle a sauté depuis 9ème étage de sa maison. Bangladesh est devenu un cauchemar pour femme seul. Chaque année beaucoup de femmes se sont suicidées en buvant poison et pesticide, d'après ministère de l'intérieur.

Friday, December 4, 2020

The Untouchables

Black money lies idle in foreign bank.
Among the launderers are leaders in high rank.
No accountability in institutions feeds the anarchy.
Progress made so far is in jeopardy.

A Bangladeshi daily recently divulged that Anti Corruption Commission had found $1 billion worth of money deposited in a Singaporean bank. The account had no nominee. It belonged to a Bangladeshi citizen. The report claimed the owner of the account was a Bangladeshi politician who was hanged for war crimes he had committed in 1971. His wife and children abstained from claiming the money, following their lawyer's advice to avoid any legal repercussions.

The incident once again laid bare gravity of corruption and money laundering taking place in Bangladesh. When it comes to plunder people's money, both the ruling party and the opposition are found on the same boat.

Earlier Singaporean media and Panama Papers revealed that brother of a ruling party politician and owner of a Bangladeshi corporate group was included in the list of Singapore billionaires. Despite the zero controversy involved in amassing the money, political connection and how the wealth was amassed provided enough air to run the rumor mill wild.

Hanged opposition politician was parliamentary advisor to then PM. In addition, he had run his own business affairs. His family members also head several business conglomerates in the country. Similarly, brother of the Bangladeshi billionaire in Singapore once headed the parliamentary committee for defense and held important portfolios.

Revelation of their documented and undocumented wealth in the media while they are holding important positions exposes impunity and less regard to public perception enjoyed by some public figures. In a civilized country, such revelation will lead to fall of government or resignation of concerned person.

Only recently government bodies displayed great concern and effort to detect and recover such clandestine wealth. Earlier such bodies were reluctant to make a move in this regard. The institutions established to detect and provide regular info about such wealth failed to live up to their utility. I came across an investigative report, carried by an online news outlet based in a foreign country, couple of months ago. It revealed that brother of the chief of a powerful institution, who received president's mercy for killing a person, was seen in a gathering with a notable politician of an off-shore heaven country in South East Asia. I previously ignored the report considering it as a political propaganda. But the recent news report evoked the photograph of that investigative story and underscored the nexus between such institution and corruption taking place at political corridor.

Earlier a report about a businessman who mediated arms purchase caused consternation in local press. He amassed huge fortune in Swiss banks and even appeared before Anti Corruption hearing.

Lack of accountability of these institutions perpetuates corruption and propels capital flight from the country towards off-shore heavens. The lack of accountability also let the vested quarter take unfair advantage of these institutions.

Meanwhile, inaction of these institutions also help seeding distrust and fear into the minds of the people. This hopelessness, in turn, contributes to capital flight and human trafficking. So one is feeding the another.

When disciples of rigid ideologies challenged existing laws, customs, traditions defying laws on the streets, it would not be naive to surmise this kind of statement. Specially when some of them found safe sanctuaries in many off-shore heaven countries. Even the architect of rapprochement between disciples of rigid ideologies and government breathed his last at a specialized hospital in Singapore this year. It is indeed interesting to see that the mastermind did not feel confident to take treatment in a country that is evolving under his mediation.

Let's just set aside the high profile political money transfer. Literally, businessmen, politicians, bureaucrats regularly launder money abroad. No one would raise concern if Bangladesh were a prosperous and welfare country. And inequality reached such a worrying level.

Advertisement of an international LED television manufacturer struck me. It pleaded the consumers to purchase LED TV set at a set price before the limited stock got finished as the manufacturing plant in Malaysia was shut down because of COVID-19. 170 million consumers' LED TV manufacturing plant was built in Malaysia! Sometimes I wonder how Bangladesh has become peripheral colony of off-shore heavens with the assistance of local powerful institutions. From cooking oil to port fees , this trace of hidden colonialism can be found.

In Bangladesh, we see sales executive of local commercial banks solicit people to bank with them and to have a credit/ debit card of their banks. Sometimes I have this weird feeling that perpetrators of corrupt acts, rioters, hatred preachers, disciples of rigid ideologies work just like sales executives of off-shore heavens to get new clients for them.

We are paying a high price for lack of accountability in key institutions. Bangladesh has been turned into a lawless jungle, a dumping ground of obsolete ideology, a transit route for drugs, a safe sanctuary for human traffickers, home of nouveau super rich and a paradise for money launderers.

Fortune lying idle in foreign banks is a stark reminder that establishing accountability in key institutions could stem the generation and laundering of such wealth.

Saturday, November 28, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(19 novembre --- 25 novembre)

Selon un reportage, un éléphant a été tué par balles à Chattogram. A Cox's Bazar, 3 éléphants dont un électrocuté ont été tués par l'homme en novembre. Le bureau de forêt s'est dit que 11 éléphants avaient été tués par l'homme année actuelle.

Selon un reportage, une série de l'incendie a causé assez dégâts aux bidonvilles de Dacca. Bidonvilles de Mohammadpur, de Kalshi et de Mohakhali ont fait sujet de l'incendie hivernale. Bidonville de Mohammadpur appartenait à groupe Bihari, urdophones de Bangladesh. Les ouvriers ont ouvert une enquête sur cause de l'incendie.

Selon un reportage, un garçon a été tué par balles à Lohagora , Chattogram. Le coup de feu provenait d' un fusil de chasseur.

Selon un reportage, l'Arabie Saoudite a exprimé la volonté de mettre en place 560 mosquées et centre culturel islamique à travers de pays.

Selon un reportage, tout le Bangladesh est en deuil en écoutant le décès de vedette footballeur argentin Maradona. Son décès a fait une dans tous les quotidiens bangladais. Après Mother Teresa, Bangladesh a pleuré pour une vedette internationale comme ça. Cela montre la puissance de sport et comment le sport gagnent les coeurs de gens en franchissant les frontières internationales.

Selon un reportage, Singapour a expulsé 15 Bangladais pour avoir exprimé solidarité avec attentat terroriste en France et montré idéologie rigide dans les comptes de réseau social.

Thursday, November 26, 2020

Man Vs Wild -II

Strange incidents perish 4 elephants in November.
Reasons of the killing no one bothers to remember.
Redesigning the policy and education hold the key
To change attitude towards the wild in vicinity.

Another disturbing piece of news revealed that an elephant was shot dead in Lohagora upazila of Chattogram. This month alone witnessed killing of three elephants in Cox's Bazar. One of them was electrocuted. Though the news report did not disclose the cause of the killing, some miscreants nowadays indulged in elephant killing on too many occasions. Department of forestry and IUCN, as the news report reported, claimed that 11 elephants had been killed in 2020.

It is a shame that this cruelty have been continuing unabated for some years. I was taken aback by another news of BBC. The story said a baby elephant fell inside a well in a village in Tamilnadu, India. Villagers and firefighters did everything to rescue the trapped elephant. Visibly different actions from two culturally close groups of people.

There is no denying that demographics, vegetation, villagers' behavior towards strangers, villagers' behavior towards animal have gone through rapid changes since the influx of Rogingyas. Forests located near the frontier transformed. In the face of accommodation need and agricultural activities, forests waned.Vegetation became thinner. Paddy fields invaded elephant tracks. Poor souls in search of foods trampled along the paddy fields, damaged thatched roofs and killed few villagers, causing worries to farmers. But recent killings did not hint that these were acts of angry villagers. In fact, villagers reported the killings.

Unwarranted hatred and tortures meted out to the elephants need to be probed. Investigative should be started to find out why the recent killings took place.

In one of my earlier pieces titled " Man Vs Wild" , I argued how sustenance of population encroached on forest lands.So habitats for animals are fast disappearing to feed the hungry population. Elephant tracks that straddled along both sides of the border for decades after decades also fell victim to this.

Humans have the ability to find new place to stay, to find new land to till, to convert wild forests into cultivable land, to cut trees to make firewood and to search and grow new crop when the existing ones became hard to find to fill stomach. Unfortunately poor creatures like elephants lack this ability. So they continue to maraude paddy fields, to knock out banana trees, steal crops and attack anything that causes obstacle on its way.

Failure to create symbiotic relationship between man and the wild lies in the flawed incentive structure in our development policies. Redesigning the incentive structure could easily save lives of endangered species and secure their habitats as well. At the same time, agricultural land, small commerce, villages situated in the vicinity of the habitat could also get benefits.

A peasant who receives regular allowance /grant for the damage or loss he sustained from trampling of wild animals will not cause any harm to them. Instead he took great care of them. In addition, he will take great care to the habitats of the animals.

Incentives can be given in many forms. For instance, a village located near a forest can be subject of a school stipend program for children of villagers so that they continue their education. The aim of the stipend program is to induce villagers to take an amiable stance towards the wild.

Financing such incentive programs will not be a difficult task as many bad projects swallow hard-earned money of the tax payers. Diverting these funds to finance the incentive structure will not be a difficult task. Scope of such programs will be small compared to other social security programs as forests are receding fast.

Many primitive society still displays far more greater responsibility towards the nature and the wild than us. In Africa, parents of a newborn of a primitive society take the umbilical cord to a nearby forest and bury it. The ritual is performed so that the baby develops a strong bond to mother nature and performs its duty diligently at later stages of its life.

Education can also play a role to develop some kind of responsibility towards the wild. Textbooks in elementary schools can incorporate stories, fables that inculcate students about rights of animals, developing fondness towards them, importance of protecting their habitats. Education and grooming at an early stage can make a lot of difference in our behavior towards animal and nature at later stages. Incident in Tamilnadu and that in Lohagora furnish the evidence. It is imperative that government and policy makers revise their incentive structure and redesign the policies to protect the wild.

Friday, November 20, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

Selon un reportage, Facebook a déposé plainte contre une société bangladaise pour avoir mené un site au Bangladesh en falsifiant la marque de Facebook.

Selon un reportage, un cambriolage s'est déroulé dans une banque publique à Chuadanga. Les cambrioleurs sont arrivés à voler Tk 500.000 depuis la banque.

Selon un reportage, le site statistique Worldometers est classé Bangladesh 5ème parmi les pays de l'Asie où plus de cas de covid-19 ont été enregistrés.

Selon un reportage, des ouvrières d'un atelier de confection se sont insurgées contre l'autorité d' atelier en Jordanie. Elles demandent revalorisation leurs salaires. Cadavre d'une ouvrière à côté de la rue a provoqué la manifestation.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a donné Tk 59,06 milliards à 390 villages pour refaire les rues endommagées par inondations fréquentes, pluies torrentielles. Bangladesh a connu assez inondations et pluies torrentielles dans l'année actuelle.

Selon un reportage, la force élite bangladaise a appréhendé un homme pour avoir menacé de tuer vedette cricketeur Sakib al Hasan. Sakib a récemment participé à une soirée de prière dans un temple de Kali à Kolkata, ville indienne avoisinant de Bangladesh. La personne fanatique a menacé le cricketeur de tuer en montrant une machette dans une vidéo diffusée dans son compte de Facebook.

Selon un reportage, le parlement bangladais a dit oui à projet de loi qui augmente la peine encourue pour viol à mort.

Selon un autre reportage,une cour bangladaise a condamné une personne à prison à vie pour avoir violé une universitaire en janvier cette année.

Selon un reportage, un couple américain, originaire du Bangladesh, ont été appréhendé par police pour avoir financé deux djihadistes de Daech.

Selon un reportage, Facebook a déposé plainte contre une société bangladaise pour avoir mené un site au Bangladesh en falsifiant la marque de Facebook.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Cost Of Hiding The True Cost

Funds allocated to flood-hit roads.
True cost of damage often remains untold.
Stealing public fund gains acceptance in society.
Independent body can reveal project's nitty-gritty.

A news report says government allocated Tk 59.06 billion to 390 upazillas, administrative units bigger than village, in a bid to repair damaged roads, bridges and embankment. Frequent flooding, torrential rain and cyclone Amphan inflicted serious damages to rural infrastructure. The allocation will address the losses resulting from calamities and bring back them to operational level, as anticipated by the policy makers. Post-disaster period sees this kind of damage-repairing investments. We are accustomed to it. Will that money be spent properly and to the projects for which the money is assigned? Past experience does not leave reason to be optimistic. Free season of corruption is going on.

In the first week of November, Transparency International Bangladesh in one of its reports found that 54% of the funds allocated to 7 climate change related projects were misappropriated. Management of the projects based on political consideration, swindling of money, nepotism and deception are common characteristics of the doomed projects. Governance has not improved at a remarkable level that assures one that similar fate does not await the road-repair projects.

Another thing to take note is how the assessment of the damage was done. If news report was the source of the damaged figure then how did the cost of the damage apprise? Often the houses do not have means to verify the claims of the damage independently. If the government officials did the damage assessment then inflating the damage figure went along well with their interests. It ensures relatively bigger share of the pie for the cohorts. Government has a monitoring and evaluation department. But rarely it appears with embarrassing findings and shares it with the press. Private NGO like TIB takes the onus of revealing the uncomfortable findings of public office.

It is obvious that there is no transparent and trustworthy mechanism within the government that spills the beans of impartial investigation / evaluation.Lack of political will also remains a source of worry and pain. Entrenched political atmosphere made even that prospects grimmer.

Back in 2009-10, Annual Development Expenditures (ADP) on transport and communication were Tk 22.42 billion and Tk 2.71 billion respectively. The expenditures stood at Tk 216.57 billion and Tk 22.69 billion respectively in 2016-17. (Source: BER 20 The figures capture commitment of the government to these two sectors. Spending increased couple of times more than what it was in 2009-10. It is important to note that many development partners also invested in these two sectors and credit they gave also reflected in ADP(revised). Government is merely an implementing / supervising body of the projects here. People of the country have to repay the loans and interests irrespective of quality of the projects. Now here comes the million dollar question: did the people get desired utility from the spending on transport and communication sector?

Ease of travel, hassle-free travel sound like bygone era talks to regular travelers. Safety is not ensured as more and more precious lives perish on roads every day. Consumers and producers of vital goods and services do not get benefit from linking of growth centers and consumption centers. Natural calamities, river erosion could be mentioned as reasons for damages to roads and communication infrastructure. But it does not necessarily mean that our roads will become useless in such a short span of time. Flash flood does not mean to wash away a road.

Quality of projects and reporting of the true cost/ damage have remained serious concern to those who feel pretty bad about waste of tax payers' money. It has been taken as granted that the public fund is meant to be stolen. So the cost of a project or damage to an infrastructure remains buried deep down the list of priority.

At a time when the media is coerced and cornered, no one bothers about a report on washed away embankment cost an astonishing sum. While hard working and true Tax and VAT payers pay the price of such corrupted projects out of their own pockets, precedents of future corruption are set.

In a country where corruption is rampant and society tolerates stealing of public fund , creation of a strong evaluation and reporting body of public fund financed projects is call of the hour.

In Bangladesh we see some state organs are accountable, but some remains immune from any kind of accountability. Let's elaborate the point with an hypothetical example. Think of an office with many departments that are accountable to management except one department.

Corrupt officials of that department will use the leverage to spread corruption within the department and to other departments. They will find kindred spirits in other departments and in connivance with them they will start to swell cosmetically the spending of the departments. At the end of the day, cost of no accountability in one department increases spending of the company many times and fills the coffer of the corrupts. This is not desirable at all.

In Bangladesh, we have a tendency to copycat anything from the West. Unfortunately, we do not take cue from the West the shining examples of governance and accountability. Unchecked project implementation is tantamount to waste public money and a great disservice to the taxpayers.

Thursday, November 12, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

Selon un reportage, le groupe indigène Mro s'est insurgé contre construction d'un hôtel à Bandarban. Des gens indigènes craignent que l'hôtel les expulse depuis leurs villages natales.

Selon un reportage, police a appréhendé 3 universitaires pour avoir gardé et vendu des images nues des adolescentes aux sites pornographiques. 3 pays ont demandé info à Bangladesh à ce propos.

Selon un reportage, la cour d'appel a donné son aval à recueillir impôt, TVA depuis les plateformes de réseau social.

Selon un reportage, incendie dans une cimetière à Narayanganj a brûlé 5 ouvriers.

Selon un reportage, police bangladaise a fait une requête à Interpol pour trouver et appréhender un trafiquant de l'homme. Police a reçu beaucoup de plaintes contre lui.

Selon un reportage, des gens inconnus ont mis 9 bus à feu dans plusieurs endroits à Dacca. Une bi-élection législative s'est déroulée dans une circonscription électorale à Dacca en ce moment là.

Selon un reportage, encore une fois établissement scolaire est tombé victime de la mesure sanitaire. Le gouvernement a prolongé la fermeture des écoles jusqu'au 19 décembre.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Flaws In ICT Policy

Export market is the focus of ICT policy.
Job creation and investment remains unfulfilled prophecy.
Local market offers alley to prosper.
Tax social media to fill NBR coffer.

Two news stories laid bare debacle of digitization policies of the government. First one is about the state-of-the-art ICT center in Jessore, a far away district from the capital city of Dhaka. It was envisioned during the time of its conception that it would bring investment, create jobs for IT professionals. For the moment that goal has not yet been realized.Tk305 crore worth of infrastructure fetched Tk60 crore investment and generated employment of 1400 persons. It was expected to create jobs for 5000 persons. COVID-19 severely hampered operations of the IT firms. Many were forced to wind down their businesses due to lack of foreign orders. Its auditorium is being rented for holding marriage ceremonies. In a nutshell, the IT facility has failed to live up to its utility till to date.

The other story is about government's disappointment to get tax revenues from social media platforms. A recent high court ruling made it clear that these platforms have to pay taxes to the government on their earnings in the local market. However, government lacks tools to enforce them to obey tax rules. Ad revenues from social media platforms are on the rise. But government cannot monitor the ad earnings of the platforms. Even it is incapable of calculating the right taxes based on the earnings.

One of the major drawbacks of government's policy is that its reliance and too much importance attached to external market. Sheer success of readymade garments and textile industry guides the government to adopt policies to earn more dollars. But the truth is such policies miserably failed to diversify the export bucket, RMG still accounts two-third of export earnings, and to churn out adequate IT professionals.

Government instead should explore the domestic market. Addressing the challenges of domestic market should be the goal of our ICT policy. Areas are plenty: education, agriculture, health, manufacturing, transport and governance could offer alleys for the development of our ICT sector.

In one of my earlier pieces, I elaborated how applications aimed at elementary school students could facilitate learning process. Government policy should be directed towards nudging educational institutes and parents to use extensively these educational contents. Number of smartphone users is on the rise. Clearly such applications have wide base of users. All the government needs to do is to formulate policies in that end. Education alone offers enough opportunities for the growth of our ICT sector and can put it into a firm footing.

Health sector can also play a role in popping up the ICT sector. Just a year ago I wrote a piece where I underscored developing a homegrown medical scribing sector. Every day hundreds of thousands of handwritten prescriptions are generated across the country. If we were able to document them digitally, our policy makers and health professionals would have better understanding of our health sector. Real time data could plug in the holes in government spending, lay bare lack of equipments and medicines in health facility, track outbreak of seasonal diseases, health situation of a particular region. More importantly it will contribute creating a health database.

Knowledge on spreadsheet and high-school-level biology is enough to be a medical scriber. Thousands of students could work as medicato earn pocket money.

Similarly, thousands of general diary are being filed in the police station across the country. Ministry of Interior could outsource the task of creating a digital version of the diary. Law enforcement authorities will get data in short span of time when that database comes into effect. This will create opportunities for many outside data entry operator or firms.

There are many public offices that could offer ICT opportunities in stage-reducing and time-shortening processes of certain tasks. Apart from that government should encourage public offices to use homegrown word-processing and spreadsheet application, encrypted messaging services,statistical software, surveillance solution, billing system etc. This kind of policy change will lead the local firms to embark upon creating ICT solutions for local market. At the same time, government will have far greater control and understanding of ICT related changes and challenges that is encountering now over taxing the social media platforms.

It appears that government has little means to gauge ad revenues in the social media platforms. To keep a tab on the revenue generated in the social media, government can let the platforms open offices in Bangladesh and make it obligatory to make the ad payments through the country office.

Another way, a bit harsh, to get revenue from social media platforms is to impose fee on their use. Government can make it compulsory for citizens to pay a certain fee for the use of social media. Monthly or annual subscription can be offered. With valid NIDs , the fees can be paid to a government assigned number/outlet/bank. Mobile SIM or broadband subscription registered with that NID will be allowed to use social media.

Ignoring the local market, designing policies to capture foreign market will not bring the desired change.Grooming of IT professionals will not be what it was anticipated at the time decision was taken. It was one of the reasons mentioned by an outgoing investor in that news story. Searching areas in other sectors for potential growth could be the right way to develop the ICT industry and update government's IT capability.

Friday, November 6, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(28 octobre --- 5 novembre)

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé une bidonville à Kalyanpur, Dacca. La tragédie a touché 100 familles.

Selon un reportage, incendie a détruit un entrepôt d'ampoule électrique, situé au 10ème étage dans un bâtiment, à Matuaïl, Dacca.

Selon un reportage, le plateforme des groupes minoritaires dans une conférence de presse s'est dit que 17 gens minoritaires avaient été tués et 27 statues de déesse avaient été détruites pendant 7 mois de confinement. Le plateforme a aussi demandé d'introduire une loi pour protéger les groupes minoritaires au Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, police koweïtienne a appelé un ancien secrétaire adjoint de ministère de l'Intérieur dans une écoute contre un député bangladais qui a été appréhendé pour trafic de gens.

Selon un reportage, l'ONG de l'anti-corruption,TIB, dans son rapport constate que 54% de fonds de 7 projets sur changement climatique ont été escroqué.

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

In Search Of Cheap Hostel

A city thriving on black money
Has hotels, apartments and bouts of felony.
No safe space for woman, traveler and worker.
Cheap hostel of city authority could be the answer.


Thousands of people travel across the country for different purposes every day. Part of them reside in the houses of their dear ones and large part of them rent hotel rooms for temporary stay. Stat on number of hotel rooms, be it cheap or luxurious, is not available. Travelers find it difficult to find cheap accommodation in Bangladeshi cities. Tourism corporation, a government entity, operates some hotels that are mostly scattered across tourist hotspots.

So cheap accommodation in Dhaka and mofussil towns is rare and inaccessible to most of the travelers.

A look at Dhaka's hotel accommodations reveals that most of them are meant for well-to-do-of travelers. But the capital city also houses daily wage earners and residents who constitute 80% of Dhaka city dwellers.Many stay here for more than a month to earn money and remit it back home in other parts of Bangladesh. But these people are lacking decent place to stay and food at an affordable price.

The condition for working women is somewhat nightmarish. Only few hostels are available for them. A religious charitable organization came forward to address the matter. However, the initiative is pretty small to cover huge demand of accommodation.

In recent years, a Chinese joint venture however showed the way how to do this kind of service oriented business. Its quality of service is good but it is not targeted towards the vast working class who mostly dwell in slums. Even in the Moghul era rulers built cheap accommodation across the subcontinent for travelers.

Last year back in November and December I did a small survey among the rickshaw pullers in Dhaka. I found that on average they spent 10-40% of their monthly earnings on house rent. Most these money went into wrong hands.

The money in turn contributed to the deterioration of law & order. Most of these slums were set up in public and private properties and lack proper sanitation and basic amenities. In addition, crores of Takas worth of utility bills do not end up in government coffer.

Whatever the reasons for their arrival, the seasonal worker, climate refugee, lone wanderer have right to get decent accommodation, food and amenities.

Unlike other countries, government and private sectors are conspicuously absent in accommodation services. I am not stressing on setting up luxury hotels for foreign tourists who are very rare in this country. I underscore cheap accommodation that an average daily wage earner can afford. Think of a huge hostel that offers common dining, toilet, laundry service and kitchen. And the services it offer are reasonably priced.

If such accommodation were widely available , then people making a brief stopover and seasonal workers might pay much less as rent what they are paying now.

Dhaka's real estate boom,fuelled by undocumented money, has little solution to address this problem. People dominate the business are concerned with optimization of the flat size so that the undocumented money will be legalized quickly. They bother little to invest in this kind of cheap hospitality business. More luxury flat sale means more black money manages to come in legal channel.

Dhaka has become an overcrowded big slum that is invading the surrounding areas. Since the city corporations have the means and authority to set up this kind of settlement they can embark on investing in this kind of hostel-like accommodation in association with private companies. The benefits are multipronged: cash strapped city corporation will get the much needed fund, utility companies will get bills, travelers and seasonal workers will get cheap and safe place to stay and decent meal, government and city corporations will keep a close tab on who enters the city and who gets out by maintaining a database, identifying the target people migrated to the city for social security programs, and hygiene and calm ambiance can be easy to maintain.

The city corporation operated hostel will set precedent for private companies to invest their money in this sector.

Another great advantage of operating such service is that city corporation in collaboration with the police can start services like lost & found. This kind of services are pretty common in metropolitan cities. Unfortunately, this kind of service is not available in this part of the world. In addition, community library, community health campaign could be launched more effectively and efficiently in such hostels.

Apart from city corporations, Bangladesh Internal Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) could also play a role in addressing this problem. BIWTA operates terminal and landing stations across the city. It also possesses and houses launches and vessels that are no longer in operation. These vessels could easily be converted into cheap hotels in the light of public and private partnership.

Both the BIWTA and city corporation can offer the cheap accommodation services to other cities. For instance, Dhaka City corporations may ink deal with other districts whose residents come here in drove in search of informal jobs to set up cheap hostels in those cities. The accommodation facility will be solace to cheap travelers from Dhaka and serve as resource center for district municipal authority.

Since 2010 , Dhaka has fallen into the hands of organized criminal groups. To make it woman friendly, traveler friendly, working class friendly, elected city authorities should be given more authority. City corporations should exercise power to set up cheap accommodation for travelers and workers curbing undesired influence of vested quarter.

Friday, October 30, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

Selon un reportage, 1972 Bangladais dont 850 en Arabie saoudite ont été péris par Covid-19 aux pays étrangers.

Selon un reportage, un prof en retraite a été massacré dans sa chambre à Narail le vendredi.

Selon un reportage, un tueur présumé a été massacré dans un temple hindou à Bogura.

Selon un reportage, le sénat américain a conseillé le président américain d'imposer restriction sur les dirigeants supérieurs de la force élite bangladaise, RAB, pour avoir tué extrajudiciairement 400 Bangladais depuis 2015.

Selon un reportage, la Banque centrale de Bangladesh a donné son aval sur versement de l'argent parmi les opérateurs de service financier par portable. Le service de l'interopérabilité a commencé depuis mardi.

Selon un reportage, l'organisation internationale des droits de l'homme , HRW, dans un rapport s'est dit que les femmes torturées au Bangladesh n'pas assez lieu d'asile dans le pays. Il y avait 7 augmentation de violence contre les femmes pendant confinement. 255 femmes ont été tuées par leurs maris ou proches de mari. Il y avait seulement 36 logements d'asile dont 15 opérés par les ONGs.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a prolongé fermeture des écoles jusqu'au 14 novembre à cause de Covid-19.

Sunday, October 25, 2020

Future Of Learning

At one fell swoop govt cancelled school exam.
Many fear students will be subject to harm.
Learn-apply-evaluate will be future of learning.
Ability to apply should reflect in its meaning.

In one of the rarest moves in country's history, Bangladesh decided not to take the year-end exams in the secondary and primary schools. It has been taken in a bid to contain the spread of COVID-19. The decision has met mixed reactions across the society. More or less 238,00,000 students are pursuing education at primary and secondary schools in Bangladesh. (Source: Wikipedia)

This promotion without exam, aka autopromotion, starts debate about evaluation of learning that was severely hampered by COVID-19. Ministry of Education came up with an idea that revolves around assignment based on a 30-day syllabus on relevant subjects. The assignment will be sent to the parents and the student will prepare it. Based on the assignment, his or her learning will be measured. This particular decision has put the autopromoted students in somewhat awkward position compared to students who were promoted through exams in past years.

Government had earlier cancelled nation wide exams at elementary, secondary and post-secondary level showing Corona virus as cause. There has however been policy discrimination. For instance, government did not bar holding "O" level exams and continuing activities of religious seminaries. Students of these streams of education are no less susceptible to COVID-19. Perhaps the sheer size of the secondary school students made the government nervous as the effective vaccine for COVID-19 is still not on the surface.

Exam is considered a measure of progress made by a student in this part of the world. This particular decision put the auto promoted students in somewhat awkward position compared to other students whose promotion to next class was based on exams in previous years.

Government should take cue from"O" level education system. Secondary school students who will be autopromoted will be given chances to sit for exam as soon as COVID-19 situation improves. If the exam score is higher than the assignment score than it will be kept, or else the assignment score will be retained.

Since it is not known when the COVID-19 will be fully defeated, indefinite closure of schools is untenable. Small batches of classes in several shifts could be seen as an alternative. But to implement it, teachers have to be duly compensated ( for extra classes) and new temporary teachers need to be recruited (to reduce strain on existing teachers).

One prerequisite should be to allocate part of the school resources available for COVID-19 treatment. And senior students should be trained to treat Corona virus patients. This step will reduce pressure on hospitals if situation turns worst.

One of the great things to notice is that COVID-19 led the government to take resort to audiovisual media in a bid to broadcast educational content.Private television stations also stepped forward to take part in this initiative. At the same time, government should keep in mind that a good number of households do not have access to television and resources to buy digital gadgets. Government should address this problem by providing subsidized television sets, other digital gadgets and equipping the class rooms in villages in a bid to bridge the digital gap.

There will be sea of changes in future learning. COVID-19 starts the process in that end. In the post pandemic world the changes will be more conspicuous. I think we will be back to old days when one teacher groomed one or small batches of students surrounded by stocks of learning tools. Like those old days, certified teachers will teach small batches of students depending heavily on repository of digital learning tools and library. Apprentice kind of learning will be prevalent. A kind of learn-apply-evaluate like sequence will be widely followed.

Two examples are presented to illustrate the point. First one from my elementary school days. Back then government primary schools used to have huge empty land behind school premises. Vegetables were grown on the land by students. In one winter noon, teachers and students picnicked at the school premise and consumed those vegetables in the lunch. Students knew how to prepare the land, what it takes to grow vegetables, how to take care of the plants, different stages of plants and benefits of eating vegetables. Students learned it, applied it and experienced (evaluated) their outcome. Based on past experiences, they might grow vegetables more efficiently.

Second one from a movie called "The Matrix". In that movie, the protagonist has to learn marshal art to deal with an evil program in the cyber world. He has no idea of marshal art. His mentors pass a program that includes all the steps of marshal art into his brain. He trains himself in the virtual world to get along well with the new knowledge and faces the formidable foe with greater ease.

I am not expecting such radical change in the process of learning in the future. But virtual learning environment will help students learning and perfecting new knowledge in short span of time. Complex surgery will be much more easier as such simulation will be created as many times as possible in virtual reality. Simulation based learning will be child's play. Simulation can teach us horror of neglecting climate change and dodging taxes in the class room.We do not have to wait for a Hollywood blockbuster to underscore importance of tiny things in our lives.

We should measure the progress in learning by a pupil's ability to apply it. If exam reflects it, then there is no problem with exam. But exam should not be the only mean to gauge it. Many students pass the English exam in their year-end exam or school certificate exam. It is assumed that they are capable of making basic conversation in English with their workable knowledge in English. Is it really the case? Ability to apply the acquired knowledge should be the yardstick to measure progress in learning.

Friday, October 23, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 14 octobre --- 21 octobre)

Selon un reportage, la douane bangladaise a saisi 39.000 pilules d' amphétamine à expédier vers l'Arabie saoudite depuis l'aéroport de Dacca.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh a fait bien dans l'indice de faim. Bangladesh est placé 75ème parmi 107 pays en 2020. L'année dernière Bangladesh a été placé 88ème parmi 117 pays.

Selon un reportage, une enquête faite par le bureau de statistiques du gouvernement de Bangladesh a divulgué que Patuakhali était la ville le plus pauvre au Bangladesh. D'après l'enquête, Borishal est classé la région plus pauvre où 41,2% de familles pauvres habitent.

Selon un reportage, un dirigeant de la filiale d'un groupe indigène a été tué par balles à Rangamati, une ville qui connait une série de tuerie récemment.

Selon un reportage, une étude faite par Columbia University et Health Effect Institute, est classé Bangladesh 2ème parmi le pays où l'air est très polluée.

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Alter Education, Alter Society

Shattering cries led the government to amend the laws.
Could it remove the existing structural flaws?
Except the education model allowed the Norwegian companies in.
Government should search the answer if it is really keen.
Education on reproductive health and social credit score
May curb rape and alter the society to the core.

In an unprecedented scale, manifestations against rape, fuelled by women of all walks of life, gripped the country. Air is thick with cries demanding capital punishment of the rapists and an end to rape. So strong was the cry, the cabinet nodded to raise the ceiling of capital punishment for rape to death. Some even consider to amend the definition of rape in the law.

Skeptics have already put a question mark about its effectiveness. In a country where vulnerable groups, religious minorities are being persecuted continuously, where flawed education system does not make good citizens to make aware the rights of others and duties to the nation and society, it will be naïve to think amended law is a magic bullet to end rape.

In recent years, our education system regressed back to a period that is comparable to dark ages. Our syllabus was updated by dropping poems and essays written by authors belonging to different faiths. Pythons were further endangered in our alphabet book and even replaced by rituals pretty common in dominant faith group. Reproductive health is never discussed in schools. In fact, in university and colleges it is slightly discussed and never talked about at great length.

We allowed a Norwegian brand to dominate our cellular phone market but never tried to emulate successful reproductive health education system found in Norway. The country is considered a pioneer in this domain. Country's education ministry runs an educational program titled "Newton" on its national channel to create awareness on reproductive health issues among school students.

But here we face increasing difficulty to talk about such topic. An online educational content platform once broadcast one or two clips of menstruation but it later took down the contents after facing stiff resistance from a fanatic group.

In Canadian universities, students' association or individual student often receives free packages of toys used for orientation towards reproductive activity. These toys are pretty common and help a lot to check the reproductive behavior. Such toys are still seen as taboos in our society.

Back in December last year, I read an investigative report on the Dhaka Tribune on underaged sex workers of Bangladesh. Many of them were sold to brothels at an age when they even do not know what intercourse is. Many clients in Daulatdia brothel told the reporter they prefered to start their day with such activity and went the brothel couple of times in a week. If there were toys in our society, we might restrain the demand-supply mechanism and curb the number of sex workers.

Lowering the marrying age of women and drying up of the stipend program for female education are the two serious errors the government made in its tenure.

Just to inflate its popular vote bank , its erroneous decisions in the long run seriously harmed the society and the nation.

Political leadership at times nerds to be bold it is a pity that power grabbing generals introduced contraceptive and family planning in this society. No political leadership dared to take such bold decisions in such a regressed society like ours.

Prof Humayun Azad, academic and linguist, aptly captures Bengalis' reproductive life in one of his writings:

Reproductive life of the Bengalis is a big taboo. Seldom is known and written about that life. That life is banned and shrouded in mystery. As if any discussion about it were a serious transgression. It is an indication that life is dirty, polluted, full of sins, unnatural and devoid of orgasm. Bengalis are very keen in sex; every male is a Casanova, but their demand remains unmet. So their reproductive life is full of perversions. Adolescents engage in pervasive acts, youth stays sex starved, so does the grown-up and aged people. Most Bengalis take great pleasure in talking about reproductive life and spread rumors about others' reproductive life; this life occupies a great part of the discussion of the grown-up. They are sophisticated imposter; when you inquire them about sex they play ignorant as if they never heard of it and never knew anything about it. This is the pervasive part of Bengalis' reproductive life. Bengali children never get any education about it; they do not know about their reproductive organs; they do not know their use. They indirectly face some religious and social obstacles. These obstacles are unscientific. Bengalis' reproductive life is devoid of science and art. It is imbued with cruelty. Bengalis spend their youth with unmet demand, which results in perversion. Rape is a vernacular incident in Bengal, the Bengalis could be aptly described as racist race. And the reason lies in the absence of a healthy reproductive life.In the West, at the age when young men and women get closer and indulge in knowing each other, Bengalis spend that age in agony. Bengalis' youth is a complete failure, full of agony. Sane men never rape, sick men cannot help raping. Extra-marital life of the Bengalis is pretty wide, they are constantly in search of chances; but their married reproductive life is the sole area to meet the physical demand.Are the Bengalis satisfied in this life? No survey can be found in this regard; no discussion can be heard. Bengalis in this life remain unsatisfied and deeply unhappy. In the act of reproduction, Bengali male is the active participant; the female remains passive. The male only thinks of temporary pleasure and nothing else; he does not know that the partner also wants the pleasure; he never tries to know that.Bengali male and female never reach orgasm. They have no idea of orgasm. Most Bengalis lack the healthy and trouble-free ambiance to get orgasm. So instead of getting inspired, Bengalis quickly draw conclusion: it is the briefest task of their life though it is perhaps the greatest and important task of their life. Dissatisfaction they draw from this life surrounds their entire life, makes them sick. The sickness results in sudden desire. Whenever the Bengalis encounter a woman, they think of her an object of sex. They copulate with her in their minds. Such a sick race in reproductive life cannot become successful in other parts of their life. (Source: The Bengalis: A Sick Race? by Humayun Azad)

Prof Azad, who was attacked in the Ekushey Book Fair with machete in 2005 at the same spot where a blogger was killed in 2015, bluntly decoded the problem of our reproductive life in harsh language.

Since the source of the problem is known, government should take bold steps to address it. At the individual level, altering our education system is a good option to fight rape. At the aggregate level, some new concepts could be introduced in the society so that a reward and punishment mechanism being followed for individual conduct.

Social credit score, introduced in China, could seriously be thought an alternative for gauging good conducts, otherwise not reflected in social status or education or wealth, of citizens interested to avail some public goods and services or to engage in other aspects of life.

Frequent transgression could be reflected in poor social credit score and the individual will be barred from getting desired public goods and services. This in turn makes one more conscious about his social credit score and improves his public behavior and interaction.

A person who has less carbon footprint, less dependence on gov't money,less harassment record can possess high social credit score than a rich individual and that high social credit score could place him ahead of that rich individual in availing public goods and services.

So when a citizen sees his social credit score secures him some position in the society and at the national level, he should mobilize more effort to care about others, nature and cultivate good manners.

Right kind of education that incorporates education on reproductive life starting from the elementary level of schooling could churn out more sane and sensible individuals. Introduction of social credit score, on the other hand, nudges a society to embrace the right kind of conduct and reduce the incidence of social maladies.


Thursday, October 15, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(07 octobre --- 14 octobre)

Selon un reportage, des ouvriers bangladais qui travaillaient en Italie et au Qarar se sont manifestés devant les ambassades de ces pays à Dacca. Comme les deux pays ont interdit les ouvriers qui passent vacances dans leurs pays d'origine à cause de Covid-19, ils se sont retrouvés coincés au Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, le conseil des ministres a donné son aval à la proposition de la peine de mort contre viol après une série de manifestations contre viol a bouleversé le pays.

Selon un reportage, une fusillade à Naniarchar , Rangamati a laissé morts deux membres d'un groupe indigène. L'armée de la terre s'est dite que son équipe était tombée dans une embuscade et elle avait répliqué avec fusillade.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh est classé le neuvième parmi les pays sinistrés par un rapport baptisé «The Humain Cost Of Disaster: An Overview Of The Last Twenty Years 2000-2019». Le bureau de sinistre de l'ONU et CRED qui se situe en Belge ont fait le rapport.

Selon un reportage, un auto rickshawwallah, conducteur de rickshaw motorisé, est mort bizarrement dans l'état d'arrestation à la gendarmerie de Nawabpur. Ses proches soupçonnent il a été tué pendant interpellation. Police l'a appréhendé pour interroger son lien dans une tuerie. Police leur a dit qu'il s'est suicidé.

Selon un reportage, un tribunal de cybercriminalité a condamné une personne minoritaire à sept ans de prison pour avoir publié commentaire diffamatoire contre le Prophète.

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Could The Sunny Spell Last?

Fallen income of household
Does not reflect in real estate market.
Onion price crosses the threshold,
Though some time later onion perishes in perfect.
Riding on fallen import and remittances
Current account registered a surplus.
Despite the sunny spell of some indices,
Slashed growth forecast makes some nervous.

The scars of corona virus for the last six months are gradually surfacing. Despite government's confidence in economy, multilateral institutions heavily downsized their growth forecast for Bangladesh. Drastic measures of lockdown, appeared unsuccessful, pushed further a good chunk of the population down to abject poverty. Even some government statistical institution acknowledged deterioration of poverty rate in its latest estimation. A 10% increase in poverty rate has made the task of poverty alleviation a grueling one as more resources have to be mobilized in order to meet the expenses of wider safety net.

Price of the main staple is rising, adding further woes to the have-not communities. Unusual rain, frequent flooding cast shadow over paddy yield. Other grains' prices are somewhat showing similar upward trend. What is puzzling was the sudden rise of the price of onion. Much of the spike in onion price was attributable to Indian ban ahead of an important state election. But onion is not a quintessential ingredient and it cannot be stored for indefinite period. In fact, many of the specially arranged consignments that made their way into Bangladesh were full of rotten onions. Though onion price is stable now, it hovered around Tk 100/ kilo for several weeks. This same incident happened a year ago. Again an important Indian state election provoked a ban on onion export. I am a bit puzzled why one has to spend Tk100 or more to buy a kilo of onion.

In computer accessories market, the higher prices of hardware and gadgets prevail throughout the lockdown and postlockdown months. Prices of imported gadgets and laptop show no sign to stabilize. Unlike the computer gadget market, smart phone and feature phone market experienced a drastic cut in prices, responding in alignment with falling income of the consumers. Unlike computer market, value addition in mobile phone market reached 60-70%.

Real estate sector is another sector where flat price remains as it was before the pandemic. A report published in a popular daily divulged that small flat like 800-square-foot registered an increase in price over the years. I have not checked the price of small flat right now. Another point is that real estate sector is the sector where undocumented money is melted. No one from the government asks the owner about the source of the money.

So falling income and rising price mismatch tells the presence of unexplained things in our economy. Perhaps that is reasons why some are more optimistic about achieving six percent GDP growth rate next year.

Online shopping platforms also did well during the lockdown. However, meteoric rise of an upstart platform and its failure to deliver goods in time prompted central bank's investigation and freezing of its accounts. Unusual monthly sales arouse suspicion as the paid-up capital is so little and the owners maintained silence about company's promotion and true status. Though High Court granted bail to the company owners, many allege that it is another edition of Ponzi scheme and is meant to legalize undocumented money.

Current account balance registered surplus.But it is mostly due to fallen import payments and increased remittances. Fallen import payments indicate demand for Bangladeshi goods has fallen in overseas markets. And remittances channeled through banks are mostly savings and dues transferred by migrant workers who are returning permanently as claimed by migration experts and analysts. In addition, most of the remittances come through a bank where Middle-East based owners have stakes. In the past, specially when disaster strikes, we witnessed benevolent donors donated huge some of money to government so that macroeconomic stability maintains and forex market gets a positive signal. This is too a disaster-like situation. However, it is not know whether any wealthy donor remitted huge money this time.

Part of the workers' protest before the Sonargaon Hotel for a ticket to Saudi Arabia is a reminder that relations between the two countries turned sour in recent weeks. And if it is not thawed we may see more workers coming back to Bangladesh.

Invisible part of the economy and remittances herald a sunny spell. But it is not clear whether this spell is temporary or long.

Friday, October 9, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(30 septembre --- 07 octobre)


Selon un reportage, Bangladesh est classé deuxième dans l'indice des pays de personne déplacée. Selon un autre reportage, 388 Bangladais qui voulaient parvenir les pays riches de l'Europe clandestinement se sont abrités dans les forêts en Bosnie-Herzégovine .

Selon un reportage, vidéo de déshabillage d'une femme par des gens au début de septembre à Noakhali a causé polémique et bouleversé la société. Police a appréhendé une personne.

Selon un reportage, pandémie de viol a provoqué manifestation à travers du pays. Le grand rassemblement a aura lieu à la place Shahbagh où les manifestants gauchistes ont demandé justice pour les victimes.La cour d'appel a ordonné la Police de se plancher sur déshabillage de la femme dont la vidéo est devenue virale.

Selon un reportage, un groupe indigène a donné une lettre de protestation à l'autorité de Bandarban contre construction d'un hôtel cinq étoile là-bas. L'hôtel sera construit par l'armée de la terre et une société locale qui a causé polémique après un de ses dirigeants avait tiré vers dirigeants d'une banque locale.

Selon un reportage, un ouvrier chinois qui travaillait à la construction d'un pont à Pirojpur a été tué par un coup de couteau. Police soupçonne c'est un acte de vol.

Selon un reportage, la Banque mondiale a baissé sa projection pour la croissance du PIB pour Bangladesh en 2021. La nouvelle projection se dit que Bangladesh atteindra 1,6% de croissance du PIB en 2021. Selon un autre reportage, le gouvernement a divulgué que pauvreté a intensifié pendant confinement au Bangladesh. Bangladesh a connu 29%  taux de pauvreté en 2020. Néanmoins, les ONGs estiment que le taux sera plus haut que le calcul de gouvernement.

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Attention!

Hi,

As I encountered some difficulties/ obstruction while putting up contents on my blogspot site in the first week of June, I resume posting to my WordPress site, https://www.rezaulhoque.wordpress.com , which was blocked for some time in Bangladesh.
However, I remain active on both the sites, depending on which one is blocked.

Thank you for staying with me.

Rezaul Hoque.



Sunday, May 31, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux


(22 mai --- 29 mai)

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé un hôpital à Dacca. Police y a trouvé 5 cadavres. Ils y étaient avant l’incendie frappait. Autre reportage s’est dit qu’ils ont brûlé à mort. L’incendie est l’issu de court-circuit de climatiseur dans la salle d’isolement.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement bangladais a confirmé les mesures de déconfinement qui entreront en vigeur à compter de 1er juin. Les experts sanitaires s’ent sont pris à la décision, en craignant que cela amplifierait la propagation de pandémie. Le taux de contamination continue à croître chaque semaine. De plus, il n’y a pas d’indication quand le Covid-19 s’éloigne.

Selon un reportage, 26 Bangladais ont été tués par balles en Libye. Ils se rendaient à Tripoli depuis Bengazi. Une escarmouche entre traffiquants et Bangladais a mené la tuerie.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh a enregistré plus de 2000 cas de coronavirus dans un jour. Jusqu’au vendredi plus de 40.000 Bangladais sont tombés victimes de covid-19 et plus de 500 Bangladais sont morts.

Doc, Quality Delivery & Experimentation


Increased health spending raises the number of caregivers.
Does it raise the quality of service delivery at the health centers?
In the face of threat tank, APC get NBC suit.
Health facilities need the same to stand resolute.
Bring back the bygone era enterprising class,
To instill values of experimentation among the mass.
1.

During this lockdown, I finished reading “Dhire Bohe Buriganga"( Gently Flows The Buriganga), the memoir of veteran journalist, political commentator and lyricist Abdul Gaffar Chowdhury. He is known to Bangladeshis and the world as the lyricist of Ekushey anthem written after the shooting incident of language movement. The book is unputdownable and packed with anecdotes unraveling the times of late 40s, Pakistan , infant stages of Bangladesh and its early years of democratic period. This gentleman has strong eyes to see subtle social changes and brought to fore many unpleasant truths. Everyone should read it.

From this book, I came to learn that prior to the tumultuous years of partition in the late 40s Savar, a countryside on the outskirts of Dhaka , housed a class of “Kabiraj” or traditional healers whose herbal medicines earned them reputation across India. The violent partition severely weakened the traditional medical practices. I also met some of them during my childhood. Unlike the present ones who promised to cure cancer and AIDS, my childhood “Kabiraj” sold medicines to cure fever, sore throat, headache, back pain, acidity, attention deficit. And they also had tonics to build a strong body, to increase memory power. The medicines were prepared based on some formula. Some of the formula books were printed and published in Kolkata, maybe by those migrated “Kabiraj”. These formula based medicines had great demand. I was specially attracted to one particular type called “Chawanprash”, a sticky mixture that promises good health. It tasted really good. In my native village in Chittagong, neighbor of my paternal grandfather practiced this kind of herbal medicine based on the formula book printed in Kolkata. They spent nights and days with their ingredients to prepare those mixtures. They made it really good as those were sold thousands of examples as far as Akiyab in Myanmar. If they had a good season, “Guda Dada"(Young Grandfather), as I used to call the neighbor, took me to have breakfast in the village bazaar. We ordered molten dalda (made of animal fat )draped parathas and downgraded version of Havshi halwa. I preferred to have my parathas dipped into thick milk tea where the dalda floated like “premer mora jole dobe na"(unsuccessful lover’s body never drowns) and refused to settle at the bottom of tea cup.

Dalda, another example of colonial rule, destroyed the market of local mustard oil and ghee(clarified butter made of cow milk). Gaffar Chowdhury’s book offered an account of it.

The point is prior to Pakistan period, we had these vibrant enterprising classes of professionals who experimented with local herbs and made traditional medicines. Though after Pakistan came into being, Kundeshwari, Sadhana, Hamdard, AP did remarkably well but turbulent time of liberation war broke that ecosystem. The glorious days of herbal medicine never returned. Research and experimentation not only in herbal medicine but in the health sector in general are conspicuously absent.

2.

Govt has taken plan to increase its health spending manifold in the next budget. Now it is time to see how it will spend this money. Coronavirus unveiled that many of our government health facilities do not have enough ICUs and specialized beds in the ICU across the country. This pandemic may be over in future but it proved how vulnerable and less equipped our health system is. We spend more on APC, Tanks and defense facilities to make them NBC(Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) compliant. Time has come to replicate the process in health sector as threat of another pandemic or chemical or incendiary disaster looms large. We need to build NBC compliant ICUs, doctor’s chamber, patient’s ward across the health facilities of Bangladesh. Most importantly, we have to train and churn out health providers. I tried to build a model with data available in BER2018, Henley Nationality Index and Odhikar to see what influences producing doctors in Bangladesh. The period chosen was 2006-2017. For constructing the perfect model I chose Leamer’s extreme bound analysis (EBA) approach. I picked up number of registered doctors (Doc), number of beds in government hospitals and dispensaries(Bed), number of medical colleges(Med), number of dental colleges(Den), ADP spending on health, population and family welfare (ADP) and victims of political violence(Pol). The idea was that with number of increased hospital beds we need more doctors. Number of Medical colleges obviously influences churning out doctors. So does the number of dental colleges. Increasing health expenditure could also play role a role in delivering health professionals. I was eager to see whether governance could shape churning out doctors. A lagged variable was chosen in this regard as political turbulence this year could delay graduation of doctors in future. However, I treated this variable as a doubtful one and considered Bed and Med as free.

First, I regressed Doc on Bed. Then I regressed Doc on Bed and Med. After that I regressed Doc on Bed, Med and Den. Later I regressed Doc on Bed, Med, Den and ADP. Then Doc on Bed, Med, Den, ADP and Pol(1-period lag). Subsequent stages of regression increased both the R2 and Adj R2. We have five coefficient estimates for Bed, 4 for Med , 3 estimates for Den and 2 for ADP. The coefficient of Bed oscillated between 0.13 and 0.377. That of Med varied between -0.186 and 4.4. The coefficient of Den ranged between -0.2 and 43.56. The coefficient of ADP moved between 10.9 and 11.38.

I put my trust on Bed, Med and ADP as inclusion of other variables did not produce fragile estimates of their coefficients. I also noticed that inclusion of Pol(lagged) variable yielded wrong sign for Med variable which is contrary to the conviction that increasing number of medical colleges produces more doctors. So I went for other variable to measure the governance. I went for Kälin- Kochenov Quality of Nationality Index (QNI). QNI ranks qualities of nationalities. Each nationality receives an aggregate score based on economic strength, human development, ease of travel, political stability and overseas employment opportunities for citizens. So I thought QNI could be a better measure for governance. But data were available for 2011-2018. So I ran the regression for this period. After the regression, I found that Med produced opposite sign. So I discarded this variable too and my attempt to see role of governance in making doctors turned out to be damp squib.

And I finally rested my trust on the following model:

Doct = a + b Bedt + c Medt + d ADPt

The result was:

Doct = 20088.07 + 0.16 Bedt + 0.37 Medt + 9.87ADPt
(t = 3.86, p=0.00 , se=5194.24) (t=2.25, p=0.05, se=0.069) (t=0.16, p=0.87, se=2.35) (t=2.54, p=0.034, se=3.88)
(F=49.33, p=0.00)

The model fit well. However intercept demonstrated a huge standard error and coefficient for Med turned out to be insignificant. It appeared ADP expenditures on health and number of hospital beds in govt hospitals play the big role on the number of registered doctors. In my model, an increase in 1 crore taka in ADP on health led to churning out around 10 registered doctors every year in the given period. Though Bed turned out to be significant, its coefficient is less than one.

3.

Increasing health expenditures may lead to raise the number of healthcare provider. But I do not know whether it is enough to raise the quality of service delivery. Abdul Gaffar Chowdhury in that memoir shared an anecdote of service delivery at Dhaka Medical College Hospital in 1953. In the general patient ward, paratyphoid patient Gaffar was staying few more days to get cured. As in those days, the patients who managed to buy medication for paratyphoid had better chance of survival. Those who could not mange to buy medicine were succumbed to death. Medical authority could not do more. A well-to-do leukemia patient was also admitted to the same ward. He did not know his days were numbered. One day the patient died. Relatives came and engaged in an altercation with the medical staff as the naked dead body was draped in white bed cover and his silk Punjabi, moneybag, golden necklace were missing. 67 years later one may still call into question the improvement of service delivery in our health facilities. Increase in health spending may increase the number of healthcare providers, but whether it may ensure quality service delivery and spur research activities in the health sector is a subject of another scrutiny.

Sunday, May 24, 2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux


(15 mai --- 22 mai)

Selon un reportage, UBER Eats a affirmé que la société allait fermer son bureau au Bangladesh à compter de début de juin.

Selon un reportage, des ouvriers se sont insurgés contre leur arriéré et sont descendus dans la rue à Mirpur. Ils ont immobilisé les rues à Mirpur-10 et Mirpur-13.

Selon un reportage, des gens ont mis le feu à la maison d’un chanteur folklorique à Sunamganj. La maison a été détruite.

Selon un reportage, cyclone Amphan, entrainait rafales de 160 km/h, a frappé les côtes de Bengal occidental en Inde et le Sud-ouest du Bangladesh. 80 personnes, dont 16 Bangladais, ont été tuées par le cyclone. L’abattage a provoqué le plupart de mort. L’orage a balayé les champs de riz, les établissements de crevettecole, les manguiers. Le gouvernement estime un bilan de Tk 11 miliards. Le prix de mangue a chuté à cause de cyclone Amphan. Un kilo de mangue coût Tk 0,50 paisa à Rajshahi.

Selon un reportage, Bangladesh a enregistré 30205 cas de coronavirus. Le vendredi, Bangladesh a détecté 1694 cas de coronavirus. La propagation s’allonce mal.

Devalue Currency To Augment Demand


Taka loses fast its value against dollar,
Reasons put forward for paying the bills of importer.
Increase in money supply depreciates local currency,
Devalued taka augments demand, output and local vacancy.
Overshooting exchange rate may approach stable value,
Lowering interest rate is a must amid pandemic flu.

A recent news report (May 20)says there has been a dollar crisis. To meet the growing import bill amid sluggish export, demand for dollar surged. Taka against dollar has been depreciated to Tk 88.50 at the banks. This is happening when government doled out Tk 5000 crore credit to RMG owners to clear dues of workers. In addition, government assured cash benefits to rural poor and other incentives to various sectors. By the time I am writing this piece, remittances in the month of Ramzan have reached $1.09 billion.

I embarked upon to see what impact an increase in M2 would leave on exchange rate. M2 comprises of currency outside bank, demand deposits, narrow money supply and time deposits. Data were taken from Bangladesh Economic Review 2018 for the period 1996-2018.

Autocorrelation check for 23 observations and 1 explanatory variable reported positive correlation (d = 0.374). I did not transform the data. It was assumed that during the unit root test inclusion of lagged residuals will take care the autocorrelation.

Then I went for unit root test to see whether exchange rate and M2 were stationary. To bare eyes, it appeared that both the variables wandered around a trend. So I constructed the following regression equations:

🔺 Excht = a + bt + c Excht-1 + d 🔺 Excht-1
🔺 M2t = a + bt + c M2t-1 + d 🔺 M2t-1
Where 🔺 Excht= Differences in exchange rate at t,
Excht-1 = exchange rate at t-1,
🔺 M2t= Differences in M2 at t,
M2t-1= M2 at t-1,
🔺 M2t-1= Differences in M2 at t-1,
t = a time trend variable, here year.

After the regression run , I obtained the following result: 🔺 Excht = -1778.34 + 0.902t -0.501Excht-1 + 0.455 🔺 Excht-1
(t=-2.52, p=0.022, se=706.22) (t = 2.53, p=0.022, se=0.36) (t=-2.79, p=0.012, se=0.18) (t=1.97, p=0.065, se=0.230)
(F=3.39, p=0.042) 🔺 M2t = -7176664 + 3590.12t + 0.0028M2t-1 + 0.373 🔺 M2t-1
(t= -2.59, p=0.019, se=2774933) (t=2.59, p=0.019, se=1386.81) ( t= 0.088, p= 0.93, se=0.0313) (t=1.27, p=0.22, se=0.29)
(F=67.54, p=0.00)

Huge standard errors put question mark on the intercept and trend coefficient of 🔺 M2 function. Tau statistics of slope coefficients of lagged exchange rate and M2 , -2.79 and 0.88 , in absolute terms were smaller than MacKinnon critical tau statistics at 5% level, -3.4620. So I did not throw away the null hypothesis that c=0 or exchange rate or M2 are nonstationary.

As the first differences of these two variables appeared to be nonstationary, it was assumed , for the sake of simplicity that they were integrated on order d,I(d). Regressing exchange rate on M2 , I obtained the residuals for cointegration test. Then I ran the following regression:

🔺 residt = b residt-1 + c 🔺 residt-1

And the result was: 🔺 residt = -0.160 residt-1 + 0.51 🔺 residt-1

(t=-2.012, p=0.058,se=0.079) (t= 2.84, p=0.010,se=0.18)

(F=5.85,p=0.011)

The computed tau statistic -2.012 was greater than the critical value -3.37% at the 5% level of significance. I did not reject the null hypothesis that least squares residuals are not cointegrated. Cointegrated Regression Durbin Watson (CRDW) test also validated the claim . The computed d = 0.374 turned out to be smaller than the critical value 0.386 at 5% level of significance. So I did not reject the hypothesis that exchange rate and M2 are not cointegrated.

In this particular situation, exchange rate and M2 were I(d) series and not cointegrated. So I went for a VAR model:

🔺 Excht = b1🔺 Excht-1 + b2 🔺 Excht-2+ b3🔺 M2t-1 + b4 🔺 M2t-2+ v🔺Excht

🔺 M2t = c1 🔺Excht-1 + c2 🔺 Excht-2+ c3 🔺 M2t-1 + c4 🔺 M2t-2+ v🔺M2t

VAR model did not fit well (🔺 Exch chi2 =6.88, p= 0.144, and for 🔺 M2 chi2= 142.85, p=0.00). Nevertheless, I wanted to see the Impulse Response Function (IRF) that shows effect of a shock of endogenous variable on itself and other endogenous variables. An increase in orthogonalized shock to M2 resulted in a short decrease ( depreciation of Taka ) in the exchange rate that withers away 1 period later.

Though the VAR model is to be accepted with a dollop of salt, this is pretty much in line with theory found in economic text book. Temporary drop in global demand shifts the DD schedule, which shows mixes of output and exchange rate for keeping output market in equilibrium in the short-spell, to the left. This in turn reduces full employment-level output to a lesser level, provoking depreciation of currency. A currency depreciation augments both aggregate demand and output at home. Meanwhile, increase in money supply in the domestic market depreciates exchange rate and causes AA schedule, which links exchange rates and output levels to keep the money and foreign exchange markets in equilibrium, to shift upward. Domestic goods become more competitive in global market , triggering a rise in domestic output and employment. For a given level of output, an increase in money supply can cause exchange rate to overshoot its long-term exchange rate for a while. One may argue that since our import surpasses our export and in this time of falling export earnings a depreciation may erode our current account balance. Point is that economic theory says for a brief period there may be a dent in the current account balance (ours a negative) but in the long run it will definitely improve.

Point is currency depreciation is good for our economy and wild fall in Taka may approach its long-run value with the course of time. To revive the falling demand, government can do more apart from doling out incentives. One step can be to lower the domestic interest rate in a bid to increase the money supply.