La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(24 juin --- 1 juillet)

Selon un reportage,le gouvernement a enfin ouvert le pont de Padma pour tout le monde. Mais,le chemin ferroviaire n'est pas encore mis en place.China Daily,une quotidien chinois,s'est dit que le pont de Padma est un projet de «Belt And Road Initiative».

Selon un reportage, police a arrêté un homme pour avoir dévissé un écrou de pont de Padma et dissiminé la vidéo dans tiktok.Selon un autre reportage, deux passagers ont été tués dans accident de moto sur le pont de Padma. Le gouvernement a interdit la moto sur le pont de Padma.Le gouvernement a déployé l'armée de la terre.

Selon un reportage, un ressortissant des États-Unis a enfin enterré dans une église de Gazipur après 4 ans de sa mort.Son cadavre a été préservé dans un congélateur d'un hôpital publique.Sa famille aux États-Unis l'a abandonné après il s'est marié avec une femme bangladaise.

Selon un reportage, une enseignante d'un groupe indigène a subi coup de couteau dans un campe de Rohingya à Cox's Bazar.L'agresseur a été identifié comme un Rohingya drogué.

Selon un reportage, environ 50 moineaux ont été empoisonnés à mort dans un champ de riz à Chandpur.

Selon un reportage,Bangladesh est classé 6ème parmi les pays dont les ressortissants ont demandé asile en Europe en 2021.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
25	Pain tchapati,Œuf à la coque,Molasse dur,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Papaya et pommes de terre,Pabdah poisson,Haricot vert,Soupe de Haricot mungo	Riz,Pabdah poisson,Nouilles	Nouilles,Thé sans sucre
26	Pain tchapati,Papaye et pommes de terre, Molasse dur, Thé sans sucre	Riz, Poisson séché avec graines de jacquier et gourde épineuse,Gourde serpent ,Batasio poisson avec pommes de terre,Soupe de lentilles	Riz battu au lait chaud	Riz gonflé et tchanatchur,Arachides, Thé sans sucre
27	Pain tchapati,Gourde serpent,Thé sans sucre	Pilaf,Batasio poisson avec pommes de terre,Œuf dur,Papaya-Pommes de terre-Calebasse gourde-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs	Riz gonflé, Papaya-Pommes de terre-Calebasse gourde-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs	Khir de riz,Thé sans sucre
28	Pain tchapati,Papaya-Pommes de terre-Calebasse gourde-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Citrouille, Haricot vert,Soupe de lentilles	Riz gonflé avec Poisson Pabdah et Citrouille	Khir de riz,Riz gonflé
29	Pain tchapati,Haricot vert,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuilles de patate douce,Tarpon indo-pacifique poisson,Gourde blanche,Soupe de lentilles et pois de chiches	Riz gonflé, Soupe de lentilles et pois de chiches, Feuilles de patate douce	Thé sans sucre
30	Pain tchapati(préparé par moi),Gourde blanche,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Gombo,Courge amère,Épinards malabar avec graines du jacquier et pommes de terre,Tarpon ibdo-pacifique poisson,Soupe de lentilles et pois de chiches	Pain tchapati(préparé par moi),Épinards malabar avec graines du jacquier et pommes de terre	Mangue,Niébé,Thé sans sucre
01	Pain tchapati,Gombo,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinard de buffle,Scribbled Goby poisson,Courge amère	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaye et pommes de terre	Niébé,Pois de chiches,Thé sans sucre

Padma Bridge: Unlocking The Potentials And The Pitfalls

As the cherished new bridge opens, Expectations are high on the breeze. Prospect of tie and chance deepens, Debates show no sign to cease.

The Padma bridge has finally been inaugurated though setting up of railway on the lower deck has yet to be started. The truss bridge ,second of its kind in Bangladesh after the Hardinge bridge, finally connects the less-accessible South-West part of Bangladesh by road and cuts the transportation time significantly. It will take 4 hours to travel from Dhaka to Jashore. And one can travel from Chattogram to Khulna within 12 hours.That is remarkable. And People of this region are extremely delighted that finally their long wait is over. Their dream unfolds into reality. There is no doubt that the bridge will boost the development of this region.

Dhaka has always been a major consumer center with a population of 25 million. Meanwhile, Borishal division is a major source of agricultural produce. As transportation time reduces, the bridge is a boon for agriculture and manufacturing in this isolated part of Bangladesh. Setting up of agro-processing industry is more plausible in this part of the country. Moreover, informal sector wage is much lower in this region. So there is a real chance to relocate there the domestic clothing factories,now scattered mostly in the outskirts of Dhaka,places like Keraniganj and Narayanganj. During the Eids, this industry caters to the demands of domestic population.

Another industry that will see tremendous boost is the tourism. Dhaka dwellers are hungry for going out. More and more people will spend their vacations and weekends in Kuakata, Sundarbans and other tourist hotspots across the river as they are nearer to Dhaka.

Back in 2018 or 2019, I took a bus ride on a Bakri Eid day to Mawa,one of the sites where Padma bridge construction work was going on. On my way I saw many billboards of real estate companies in the paddy fields of Munshiganj. These “DreamCatchers” or ”DreamCrashers” or “SkyHigh” may soon put up their billboards on the paddy fields of Shariatpur where prices of paddy fields have gone up by four times than what they were couple of years ago.

Agriculture,cloth manufacturing,tourism,transport and real estate are the industries that will see a major leap within 4 years due to Padma bridge. SEZ's ,RMG zones,manufacturing and other sectors will follow suit in the long run.

Apart from domestic development, Padma bridge will also connect the 7 sisters of India with the mainland India. Landlocked states like Tripura,Meghalay and Mizoram will be directly benefitted from this bridge as traveling via Bangladesh to Kolkata brings down the distances by several hundreds of kilometer if governments of two countries take an amicable stance on such connectivity initiative. Right now people of Tripura have to travel 1300 kilometers by train to go to Kolkata.And the journey lasts more than a day. Ordinary people from remote states like Mizoram,Nagaland,Manipur can take cheaper train/bus ride to go to Kolkata and other big cities via Padma bridge. In that sense the bridge connects the region. Importance of Padma bridge will deepen bilateral ties and bring more FDIs from regional countries.

Now come to the cost of Padma bridge. Govt keeps boasting that Padma bridge is a self-financed project.Official cost is around $3.6 billion. But the truss bridge is a double decked one and railway is part and parcel of the bridge. However, government is taking a $2.76 billion loan from Exim Bank of China to set up a 169 km long rail link including railtrack on the bridge all the way from Jashore¹. Now if it were built by our own money we would have the leverage to bring few more domestic companies on board to become associate of the main contractor so that they could improve their portfolio to bag more lucrative projects at home and abroad.But truth is we have to import the aluminum railings from abroad. In reality, Bangladeshi engineers and companies have subdued presence in making the bridge. Is it because of the conditionalities of the creditor agency? China Daily claimed that Padma Bridge is part of BRI². If that is the case why there is so much hiding. There is no wrong in being part of BRI if the project is viable and beneficial for us. But the Foreign Ministry keeps claiming it is financed by our own money. It is interesting that govt is showing rail link credit of $2.76 billion as a separate cost when the bridge is a combo. On the other hand govt is saying that loan for the bridge will have to be repaid in 30 years. But in Wikipedia and in other official domains, there is no information about this Chinese credit. If we add this rail link cost to Padma Bridge cost ,then cost will go up. It is not known when the bridge will reach the break even and whether it will be viable for us.

[Source:Screengrab from Bangladesh Bank website]

Meanwhile, our external debt keeps growing.Bangladesh Bank on its websites clearly says that repayments of external debt stock do not represent the military borrowing³. That means our true external debt,almost doubled in 5 years,is higher by several billions of US dollar.

In the past,we saw govt did not report use of $7 billion of Central Bank's reserve to stabilize the dollar market. In that light, information hiding further thickens suspicion about true cost of Padma bridge.

It is naïve to draw comparison between Hardinge bridge and Padma bridge. I do not know how the British financed the Hardinge bridge. But they always depend on local resources and institutions to finance the development projects here. Easy way to check this is to go to the Ahsan Manzil of Dhaka where donations of Nawabs are documented. And the list includes setting up street lamps,sewerage line,canal excavation etc. Jamindars of Satkhira renovated the flood protection dams from their own money and subjects’ effort. Govt could have followed their steps. Fund could have been arranged from stock exchange,regional development authorities. And the toll money could have gone to these cash-strapped local government bodies.

Most ugly thing the government did is it went for a virulent campaign to assassinate character of those who called into question government’s decision to go ahead with the Padma bridge project without the key development partners. This grand moment could be the occasion to unite all instead of driving further wedge. But rant from the top level even crossed lakshman rekha of decency. And worst part of it that PM was mentioning names of people who voiced concerns over Padma bridge project in a press conference. Earlier a professional even published book compiling articles and views of people criticizing govt's stance on Padma bridge. Disgusting display of denunciation at the highest level shows the anarchist political clout we are living with. It reminds one the treatments of Mao's apparent critics in the denunciation meeting during the cultural revolution in China. People deemed critical to Mao or victims of settling of personal scores ended up in this kind of denunciation meeting. When government after government rehabilitated and empowered this kind of anarchist into professional bodies and public institution ,this is the end result. Constitution gives Bangladeshis right to express their opinion, concerns about how their money is being spent. A democratic government would listen to them and address them based on their merits. An anarchist govt would do what the govt is doing. Reactionary stance is not part of a self-trumpeted “progressive govt”.

There are pitfalls of this bridge. It is anticipated that the bridge would reduce poverty by 1% every year in the South-West. But the lessons left by Jamuna Bridge ,inaugurated in 1998,do not give much reasons to be optimistic. In 2010, poverty rate was 42.3% in Rangpur,one of the region across Jamuna where backbiting poverty still prevails. In 2016,incidence of poverty rose to 47.2% in that region⁴. Due to COVID ,overall poverty situation deteriorates across the country. Distribution of 10 million family support card hints increased incidence of poverty. It is naïve to assume that one single bridge uplift people out of poverty. There are other pitfalls that I elaborated in my piece “The Dividing Bridge”⁵. To make this piece concise, I did not bring them up here.

Padma Bridge unfolds the confidence and enthusiasm of this country. At the same time , it remains a symbol of corruption and sore point in the history of our development projects. True cost of this bridge and the details of corruption are yet to be known. Witch hunting and bitterness cracks the unity and wanes further space for dissent and critical voices. And the kind of governance we will experience will decide the winner between the potentials and the pitfalls.

Notes And References:

1. “Padma Bridge Rail Link To Open In June 2023,Says Project Director “,Zafar Ahmed and Kazi Mobarak Hossain,June 23,2022,bdnews24.com. For more read at https://m.bdnews24.com/en/detail/bangladesh/2080192
2. “BRI Provides Benefits For Bangladesh “,Pathik Hasan,October 11,2021,China Daily. For more read at https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202110/11/WS6163e762a310cdd39bc6e219.html?fbclid=IwAR2QAEHAGzwIeNoIGBEed2abFHte0SzWIoeqM-dwgEUoJbtbpnoR9EWTdJQ
3. Bangladesh Bank
4. Bangladesh Economic Review 2019,2022
5. “The Dividing Bridge”,Rezaul Hoque,18 December,2015,https://rezaulhoque.WordPress.com For more read at https://rezaulhoque.wordpress.com/2015/12/18/the-dividing-bridge/

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(17 juin --- 24 juin)

Selon un reportage, l'argent clandestin de Banglaidais dans les banques suisses a augmenté en 2021.À la fin de 2021,il est devenu 870 millions franc suisse.

Selon un reportage,pluies torrentielles,un record en 122 ans,ont inondé Sylhet,Moulavibazar,Sunamganj,Netrokona,Kurigram et une dizaines de villes en immobilisant millions de villageois.Les utilisateurs de réseau social Facebook ont affirmé plusieurs vols dans quelques villages inondées.Le bilan de dégâts à Netrokona est TK 150 milliards.Inondation a lavé centaines d'élevage de bovin,d'aviculture et 11.000 tonnes de poisson depuis étang. À Sylhet,21.000 villageois on pris refuge dans abri d'urgence.L'aéroport de Sylhet a été submergé.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a décidé de fermer tous les magasins après 20 heures du soir pour économiser le carburant et l'électricité.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucrerie et Fritures
18	Pain tchapati,Omelette,Courge amère,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Crevettes séchés avec graines de Jacquier,Ruhi poisson,Calebasse gourde	Riz battu au lait chaud avec dattes	Jamrul/Champoo,Pois de chiches et Niébé avec riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
19	Pain tchapati,Papaye et pommes de terre,Jacquier, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuilles d'amarante tige,Ruhi poisson avec gourde pointue et pommes de terre,Courge amère et lentilles,Citron,Poivre	Crêpes(fait par moi),Courge amère et lentilles	Niébé et pois de chiches,Thé sans sucre et datte,Aloo pury(un type de friture populaire, préparé comme crêpe rempli avec purée de pommes de terre)
20	Pain tchapati,Œuf à la coque,Papaye et pommes de terre bhaji,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Amarante tige,Gourde serpent, Ruhi poisson,Soupe de lentilles	Riz battu dans lait chaud et jacquier	Jacquier,Thé sans sucre
21	Pain tchapati,Papaye et citrouille,Œuf dur, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Ruhi poisson,Gombo, Épinards d'eau	Pain tchapati,Papaye et Citrouille	Jacquier,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
22	Pain tchapati,Œuf dur,Gombo,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Soupe de lentilles, Gombo,Omelette	Riz,Papaye et Haricot vert,Cornichon à la Mangue dans Soupe de lentilles	Jacquier, Thé sans sucre,Riz battu dans lait chaud avec dattes
23	Pain tchapati,Papaye et Haricot vert,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Loofah avec Niébé et Haricot vert,Puntio barbe,Jacquier	Riz battu dans lait chaud, Jacquier	Jacquier,Riz gonflé,Concombre,Arachides,Graines du jacquier,Thé sans sucre
24	Pain tchapati,Omelette, Jacquier,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards malabar,Gourde épineuse avec Ruhi poisson, Soupe de lentilles	Riz,Épinards malabar,Puntio barbe	Riz gonflé, Thé sans sucre

Do We Need Social Security Programs?

Social spending without contribution Is not always a durable solution. Lottery and social security bond Creates initial social transfer pond.

A fresh debate resurfaced over the allocation on social welfare and security programs.The current govt increased the spending on social security programs over the years. In the previous post, I delineated how these programs rendered ineffective.Argument put forward in favor of raising social spending is that in many developed economies social security spending occupies a decent share of GDP and in Bangladesh it is still below 3%.

In many of these developed economies, public opinion,petition lead the public representatives to scrutinize opaque issues,to summon concerned people at the Parliament to offer explanation. And the free press is allowed to broadcast and print details of the hearing. In Bangladesh that never happens. There are privileged people who roam scot free and hardly have any accountability. And a section of press,capable of manufacturing « narrative », keeps disseminating disinformation to maintain status-quo.

In many of these developed economies, unemployment rate is pretty low and they have a concept of social contributions apart from income tax.In a country of 160 million where we have only 7.5 million registered taxpayers,this idea of social contribution is alien. Many here enter job market pretty late. And prospect of job at private sector is pretty uncertain as ruling elites dominate the business. In the wake of regime change or corruption, many found themselves in the club of unemployed. In addition, a large part of our workforce involved in informal sector where scope for saving or making social contributions is very minimal. In developed economies, people contribute to government fund very long time to receive benefits during their post retirement age.In Bangladesh that kind of prospect is very bleak as very few could manage to do so. Here govt finances the social security programs through indirect tax,borrowing from banks and abroad.People’s participation in social contributions is absent. And most of this tax money falls into wrong hands. To sustain a government-run social security program,government has to collect contributions from many people just to give benefit to one retired person. But the concept of ratio of active age to retired age population and intergenerational transfer ¹are not working in Bangladesh as we do not have well functioning institutionalized job market. One solution is to call for voluntary support to social security fund.

Govt may float social security bond,starting from TK 100. Those who are interested may buy these bonds using NID card. And NBR will track the number of bonds held by each NID. Based on the amount of one's contribution, one individual may receive a certain sum during his post retirement life. Government may also add fund to it. For instance, if social security bond fetches TK 100 crore. Government may contribute another TK 100 crore and distribute the money among the target population. Government may also launch a lottery to finance the program,more plausible than the social security bond. 5% of lottery buyers have chance to win some prizes while 95% will have the feel good factor. The point is if you really want social security then you have to contribute to it. Government in no way is going to pay fully the whole social security spending.

I personally think except the elderly allowance all social spending should be wound down. A government that depends on borrowing and indirect tax does not have the luxury to spend public money on universal pension and social security. Rampant corruption even makes that idea very untenable in the context of our country.As govt is mulling to offer ration card to 10 million vulnerable families, it is better to downsize/abolish other social programs. At the end of the day,money well spent or lost belongs to people. While incurring a rising budget deficit,it is not wise to open new spending avenues where risk of leakages looms large.

Notes And References:

1. “Macroconomics”,Rudiger Dornbusch,Stanley Fischer,Richard Startz,7th edition,McGraw-Hill.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(10 juin --- 17 juin)

Selon un reportage,le train entre Dhaka et Sylhet,connu comme «Parabat Express» a été mis à feu.Cinque heures après le service de train a repris.

Selon un reportage, une ONG Article Nineteen se dit que 118 journalistes sont tombés victimes de harcèlement dans le 5 mois de cette année. En juin,4 journalistes ont été tués à traverse du pays.

Selon un reportage, un Russe est mort mystérieusement dans Green City à Pabna.Il travaillait dans la centrale nucléaire de Rooppur à Pabna.

Selon un reportage,le bilan depuis incendie et explosion dans entrepôt privé de conteneur s'est alourdi.Deux blessés ont succumbé à leurs blessures. Malgré le stockage de produit chimique,six mois avant une équipe de gouvernement a surveillé l'entrepôt et n'a trouvé aucune violation.

Selon un reportage,à cause de Mousson et pluies torrentielles, inondation se détériore à Kurigram,Sunamganj et Netrokona. A Kurigram,300 hectares de champs de riz,de jute,de légumes et de sésame sont sous l'eau.De plus, inondation rend 50.000 villageois immobilisé à Kurigram.Des écoles arrêtent activités scolaires.

Selon un reportage,le candidat du parti au pouvoir a remporté l'élection municipale à Cumilla.Le candidat perdu a jeté le résultat et a accusé le gouvernement d'avoir fait truquage électoral.

Selon un reportage, un groupe rebelle du CHT a offert au gouvernement un nouvel accord de paix pour mettre en fin violence là-bas.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucrerie et Fritures
11	Pain ,Omelette,Cornichon à la Mangue,Thé avec citron sans sucre	Riz,Épinards malabar avec graines de Jacquier, Courge amère avec Haricot rouge,Poivron	Pain,Courge amère avec Haricot rouge,Mangue	Mangue, Litchi,Thé sans sucre
12	Pain,Omelette,Jacquier,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Courge amère avec Haricot rouge et crevette,Calebasse gourde, Soupe de lentille	Pain(fait par moi),Calebasse gourde,Mangue	Jacquier,Riz gonflé,Arachides,Thé sans sucre
13	Pain,Calebasse gourde,Litchi,Jacquier,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Papaye et Haricot vert,Œuf mollet,Épinards malabar, Soupe de lentilles,Poivre, Citron,Litchi	Pain,Soupe de lentilles dans Papaye et Haricot vert,Épinards malabar	Thé au lait,Dattes
14	Pain tchapati,Papaye et Haricot vert,Œuf mollet,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards buffle, Labeo Bata poisson avec Gourde épineuse,Graines du Jacquier avec Crevettes séchés, Soupe de lentilles	Nouilles	Arachides, Thé sans sucre,Dattes,Nouilles,Graines du Jacquier
15	Pain tchapati,Papaye et Citrouille, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Amarante rouge,Calebasse gourde, Purée de Ruban poisson séché avec oignon, Purée de Poivron,Rita poisson, Soupe de lentilles	Riz battu dans lait chaud et datte	Pois de chiches,Thé sans sucre,Jacquier
16	Riz gonflé,Jacquier,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuille de Moringa et Lentilles,Épinards d'eau,Omelette	Riz gonflé, Feuille de Moringa et Lentilles	Niébé,Dattes,Thé sans sucre
15	Pain tchapati,Gourde serpent et Gourde pointue,Œuf poché, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Œuf dur et pommes de terre,Courge amère, Soupe de Lentilles	Paratha,Pommes de terre	Arachides,Thé sans sucre,Riz battu dans lait chaud avec datte

Another Flawed Incentive Program?

Huge subsidy and social security Sometimes proved their futility. For the sake of a balanced budget Cut spending for social pocket.

Government has formally presented the budget for FY 2022-23. Around TK 83000 crore of subsidy & incentive has been proposed. A large part of this subsidy will be attributed to energy,fuel and fertilizer. To ensure food security and contain the inflationary pressure, TK 16000 crore subsidy on fertilizer is justified¹. TK 33092 crore is allotted in the name of social security. But when government is running a huge budget deficit, this huge subsidy and social security spending is unacceptable. Many multilateral institutions revising their growth forecast including slower growth in developed economies.Interest rate/policy rate increase in US and EU hints to that direction.This means demand for oil, gas will be much lower in these countries. There will be reflection of it in LNG and oil prices.I can’t figure it out why the subsidy on BPC is going on when cheaper sources of oil are available. Supply side uncertainty about food grain, cooking oil and fertilizer is largely responsible for driving up the price levels. High oil price is partly to blame. In that light subsidy in food and food production is ok. But this BPC subsidy money should be shared by consumers and shelved for better use.

On the other hand, government of Bangladesh's track record on social security spending is marred with corruption.Back in August last year,I penned this piece titled “Flawed Incentive Programs”² to highlight the ineffectiveness of social security spending due to unwarranted corruption. Sharing it again:

In recent weeks, series of reports laid bare flaws and inefficiencies attached to social security programs and incentive packages designed to assuage Corona-battered business community. Built-in corruption in management and disbursement of funds of the programs, as exposed by the news reports, once again undermines people’s trust on government at a moment when it badly needed their support to mobilize resources on measures to restore COVID-hit economy. A news report divulged that Ministry of Social Welfare detected some 87,000 fake beneficiaries who swallowed benefits under social security programs3. The matter surfaced when the ministry is implementing digitization of accounts of beneficiaries. So far 7.6 million accounts have been digitized and 2 millions await to join the list. Another program designed to augment income-earning opportunities for the poor has come under criticism after a government report found irregularities. The 12-year-long "Amar Bari ,Amar Khamar( My Home,My Farm)" benefited 5.7 million people,but 1 million beneficiaries were identified as affluent, not eligible for such program4. Department of implement ation,monitoring and evaluation of Ministry of Planning in its report found that 1 million ,17% of the total beneficiaries, fake beneficiaries took interest-free credit reserved for the poor under the “Amar Bari,Amar Khamar” Project(2009-2021) ,costing TK 78.85 billion of taxpayer’s money. Some swindled the credit for 12 years. Not only social security programs, irregularities can be traced even in Corona incentive packages for businessmen. Government allotted credit of Tk 300 billion for big businesses and credit of Tk 150 billion for SMEs at subsidized rate of interest. According to a news report, many businessmen misused the credit by repaying old debts,investing in share market and purchasing flat 5. It derailed the objectives,propelling economic activities, the credit package initially conceived of. Instead of bringing the pace in manufacturing, retail and SME activities, misuse of the fund makes it unlikely to avail more soft credit in the future. So cash-strapped SMEs will face further problems to manage working capitals for their businesses. Earlier 22000 fake freedom fighters had been detected in freedom fighter allowance program. Facing a barrage of criticism, government hardened the procedures for identifying the true freedom fighters and discarded the fake ones from the list. Even corruption mars "home for the homeless" project,which is being implemented by Prime Minister’s Office. Use of substandard materials, project site on flood-prone land and bribery called into question the objective of the whole project.Even PM' s office has started probe in 36 upazilas6. My own survey on rickshawpullers for my site reveals that only a minority of the true target population receives the social security programs. I interviewed 43 rickshawpullers and only three subscribed to any of these programs. And all of them were relatives of local representatives who are responsible for running the operations of social security programs at grass root level. 7 The revelations expose inefficient management of public funds and waste of taxpayer’s money. This will further hold back widening of social security programs and implementation of post-COVID efforts. One thing is apparent that most of the scams in social security programs got exposed while digitizing the database. If mobile operators and mobile financial service providers can able to sell SIM and open accounts with biometric verification why can the government not go for this step to identify the beneficiary population?Bangladesh runs an array of social security programs from allowance for senior citizens to allowance for freedom fighters. These programs cost Tk 641.76 billion in 2018-19(Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2019) and in 2021 rose to Tk 955.74 billion3. Even tiny scam could wipe out thousands of crores of taxpayer’s money. Seldom heard or reported in the press about the fact that other government agencies had given prior information about murky affairs or shoddy dealings in various programs run by ministries. This fund may fall in wrong hands and may be used to stir trouble at home or abroad or weaken democracy and democratic institutions. So there is no reason to take wasting of taxpayer’s money slightly. Ensuring accountability of all government organizations is the key to plug the holes in leakages of management of public fund and resources. If this continues without any checks, people’s trust on government and government institutions will erode and their support on undemocratic forces may rise. Just throwing the money in gutters in the name of ineffective social security and corona incentives only swollen the pockets of a certain quarter who excel the art of misappropriating public funds and those who have evil intentions to cause trouble at home and abroad. Amending the laws to hold all the quarters accountable to constitutional bodies is the first step to stem corrupt practices.

Things have not improved much in one year. A news report says a Medical Assistant Training School ,cost TK 210 million, in Gazipur has turned into a safe place for addicts. Another report says boat ambulance donated by govt in haor region turned useless in one year. More recently Bangladesh Army approached govt to write off the commercial loans it took from public banks to set up Sena Edible Oil Company. The oil company did little help when oil prices soared recently.It appears that mismanagement and misuse of public money have become contagious. This tendency only wastes our valuable resources. “Public investment” at the end of the day is just a big failure and a waste of time and money. In a country where caring of public resources, accountability are absent, there is no point to run subsidy and social security programs that hardly meet the intended goals. Removing/downsizing some of the social security programs and cutting subsidy will be a much more desirable move in the wake of growing budget deficit and current account deficit.

Notes And References:

1. “Agri-subsidy Aims To Not Let Runaway Food Prices Tumble Further”,Shawkat Ali,Business Standard,June 09,2022.For more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/budget/agri-subsidy-aims-not-let-runaway-food-prices-tumble-further-436734
2. “Flawed Incentive Programs”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,August 08,2021. For more read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2021/08/flawed-incentive-programs.html?m=1
3. ”87000 Bhatabhogir Khonj Nei(No Trace of 87000 Beneficiaries)”, Najnin Akhter,Daily Prothom Alo, July 26,2021.
4. “Gorib Sajlen 10 Lakh Sochchhol(1 Million Affluent People Played Poor)”,Arifur Rahman,Daily Prothom Alo,August 02,2021.
5. “Pronodonar Taka Noy Chhoy(Misuse of Incentive Money)”, Daily Prothom Alo,July 26,2021.
6. “ Ashrayan-2 Project Scam: 36 Upazilas Under Scanner”,Ali Asif Shawon, Dhaka Tribune,July 06,2021. For more read at https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2021/07/06/arshrayan-2-project-scam-36-upazilas-under-scanner
7. “Live Stock”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2020/01/live-stock.html?m=1,January 11,2020

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(03 juin--- 10 juin)

Selon un reportage, explosion dans un entrepôt privé de conteneur a tué 49 personnes et blessé centaines. Incendie était issu de section de conteneur où produit chimique a été gardé.

Selon un reportage, autorité thaïlandaise a découvert un groupe de Rohingya abandonné par trafiquants dans une petite île.

Selon un reportage,des ouvriers d'atelier de confection ont asphyxié les rues de Mirpur en demandant hausse de leur salaire.

Harcèlement et attaque contre des journalistes continuent sans arrêt.Selon un reportage, un journaliste a été appréhendé à Rangamati après des fidèles du parti au pouvoir ont porté plainte contre lui en utilisant la loi draconienne Digital Security Act. La cour d'appel lui a accordé la mise en liberté provisoire sous caution.Selon un autre reportage, cadavre d'un salarié d'une chaîne privée a été trouvé à côté d'un lac de Dhaka,deuxième mort mystérieuse d'un journaliste dans 6 mois.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement du Bangladesh a annulé le permis de l'ONG Odhikar,une voix critique contre gouvernement. Amnesty International s' est opposé la décision et a exprimé inquiétude.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucrerie et Fritures
04	Pain , omelette, thé sans sucre	Riz, Poisson ruban séché (dans gourde épineuse, graines de Jacquier, Haricot vert),Épinards malabar,Anchois gangétique,Labra(un plat végétarien préparé avec gourde calebasse,pois de chiches, patate douce),poivron,concombre	Riz gonflé,pois de chiches	Vermicelle,Thé sans sucre
05	Pain, Labra(un plat végétarien préparé avec gourde calebasse,pois de chiches, patate douce),Thé sans sucre	Riz,Poisson Rita,Concombre,Citron,Poivron,Courge amère et Soupe de lentille	Riz gonflé, Poisson Rita,Haricot vert	Biscuit,Riz battu au lait froid et raisins sec,Thé sans sucre
06	Pain,Haricot vert et Thé sans sucre	Riz,Labra(un plat végétarien préparé avec gourde calebasse,pois de chiches, patate douce),Ruhi poisson,Soupe de Lentilles, Citron,Banane	Riz battu à l'eau chaud avec datte et raisins,Patate douce	Thé sans sucre
07	Pain, Labra(un plat végétarien préparé avec gourde calebasse,pois de chiches, banane verte, patate douce),Banane et Thé sans sucre	Riz,Gourde serpent,Ruhi poisson ,Citron,Poivron et Soupe de lentilles	Pain,Gourde serpent dans Soupe de lentilles,Lait avec dattes	Thé sans sucre,Riz gonflé et Banane
08	Pain,Omelette,Banane,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuilles de Jute,Feuilles de patate douce,Rita poisson,Citron, Poivron.	Riz gonflé, Pois de chiches, Rita poisson,Oignon, Poivron	Thé sans sucre
09	Pain,Calebasse gourde,Haricot vert et Pommes de terre dans la Soupe de lentilles,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Rita poisson,Purée des graines de Jacquier et Crevettes sec,Labra(un plat végétarien préparé avec Calebasse gourde,Banane vert,Haricot vert,Citrouille, Gourde épineuse, Pommes de terre),Soupe de lentilles, Citron, Poivron	Pain,Labra(un plat végétarien préparé avec Citrouille,Gourde épineuse, Calebasse gourde,Banane vert,Haricot vert, Pommes de terre)	Riz gonflé, Banane,Cornichon à la mangue, Thé sans sucre,Dattes,Arachides
10	Pain,Labra(un plat végétarien préparé avec Citrouille,Gourde épineuse, Calebasse gourde,Banane vert,Haricot vert, Pommes de terre),Œuf dur,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Omelette, Poisson Ruban séché dans Gourde épineuse, Graines de Jacquier, Haricot vert,Épinards d'eau, Soupe de lentilles, Citron, Poivron	---	Riz gonflé dans lait et datte,Riz gonflé avec Cornichon à la Mangue, Arachides, Thé sans sucre

Deficit Financing:Road To More Taxes

A tax cut in present day Says in future we have high tax to pay. For the sake of debt stabilization Paying debt interest is the solution.

Government has recently decided to float the exchange rate of Taka against the US dollar. Bangladeshis living abroad now can get the market offered value of their hard-earned remittances. The fall of Taka is an incentive to them. The move is highly appreciating as it will ease of the pressure to some extent on central bank's foreign currency stock. Idea is that such move discourages unnecessary import holding back the import spending. On the other hand, depreciation makes the Bangladeshi export items more competitive at a time when recession like scenario is more credible than before, signalling individual spending cut of Occidental consumers.

But is it enough to improve the current account deficit? Ahead of election, govt has in no mood to follow austerity measures. In the previous post I tried to underscore how growing budget deficit is posing a danger to our economy. Amid this growing budget deficit ,govt mulls reducing corporate tax by 2%.This means to finance deficit we have to borrow more.

Just take a look at the composition of our tax revenue and expenditure.In 2020 government expenditure stood at Tk 4201 billion while it earned a tax revenue of TK 2659.1 billion,leading to a budget deficit of TK 1542.5 billion.Both govt expenditure and tax revenue increased in the subsequent years. But tax receipts never outweighed the spending. In 2021, budget deficit grew to Tk 1874.5 billion. And in 2022 it is projected to be TK 2146.8 billion,6.2% of GDP.Tax revenue only became 10% of GDP in 2021 and projected to be 11% in 2022¹.

Total Revenue & Total Expenditure(In Billion Taka)

	2020	2021	2022
Total Revenue	2659.1	3515.3	3890.0
Total Expenditure	4201.6	5389.8	6036.8
Budget Deficit	1542.5	1874.5	2146.8

Source:Bangladesh Bank

Failure to generate enough tax revenue means we have to borrow more from both internal and external sources to meet the budget deficit.

In 2020,domestic financing accounts for 3.4% of GDP while foreign financing accounts for 1.4% of GDP.In 2022,domestic financing projected to be 3.3% of GDP while foreign financing projected to be 2.9% of GDP¹. As bank borrowing and borrowing through sale of national savings certificates are rising, govt in future has to either print more money or to cut spending in other sectors or has to raise tax levels to pay the interests. Moreover inflationary pressure has already pushed the depositors and investors on national savings certificate on loser's side.

Like domestic borrowing, our external debt is also rising. In 2015-16,our debt was $41.17 billion. In 2020-21,it became $81.57 billion². Our external debt almost doubled in 5 years. As our budget deficit grows,our external debt grows.Now say we want to keep the external debt at this current level. Economist Olivier Blanchard argues that to make it happen, we have to generate enough tax revenue so that tax minus spending equals(primary surplus) the real interest payments to existing debt ³. For the subsequent years, this measure has to be followed in order to stabilize the debt. Otherwise it will add to the past debt, increasing our debt burden.

External Debt(In Billion US Dollar)

	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21
External Debt	41.17	45.81	56.01	62.63	68.59	81.57

Source:Bangladesh Bank

But what is the govt doing?It is considering a tax cut. It means our debt will rise and the govt has to tax more to get rid of those debts. Olivier Blanchard stresses that a tax cut in the present means higher taxes in the future. In that light, our output growth will be lower when we need to grow more to repay our debts and create more jobs³.

More than two-third of our total debt is public debt. Govt took it to finance many infrastructure and development projects. So large part of the debt went to finance politically motivated projects. Some of which were marred by corruption, faced cost overrun and have little or no economic returns.

At a moment when government requires to raise tax,cut spending,govt is mulling populist policies. And the future generation will pay for prices of its populist policies. Stabilizing debt calls for austerity. Free floating of Taka is only a half done job. Raising taxes along with spending cut will complete the task.

Notes And References:

1. Bangladesh Bank Annual Report 2021
2. Bangladesh Bank
3. “Macroeconomics”,Olivier Blanchard,2nd edition, Prentice Hall International, Inc

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(27 mai--- 03 juin)

Selon un reportage, le Bangladesh et l'Inde ont inauguré un nouveau service de train entre Dhaka et Jalpaigudi,une ville se situe au pied de montagne de Darjeeling.

Selon un reportage, deux policiers bangladais ont déserté et disparu au Pays-Bas. Ils y sont allés pour participer dans une formation.

Selon un reportage, la Banque centrale a arrêté fixé le taux de change de Taka contre dollar américain.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucrerie et Fritures
28	Eau de citron ,pain , omelette, thé sans sucre	Riz, gombo, Pama croaker poisson, Courge amère,Soupe de lentille	Riz battu au lait chaud avec datte	Muraly,Thé sans sucre,Biscuit,Riz gonflé avec Chanachur
29	Eau de citron et Psyllium Husk,pain,omelette,gourde serpent avec thé sans sucre	Riz,feuille de calebasse gourde,Anchois gangétique curry,gombo,Courge amère et Soupe de lentille	Riz gonflé, feuille de calebasse gourde,Anchois gangétique curry et Soupe de lentille	Biscuit,Graines de Jacquier,Arachide,Thé sans sucre,Jamrul/Champoo
30	Eau de citron et Psyllium Husk,Pain,Omelette,Luffa et Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards de buffle,Ruhi poisson	Riz gonflé,Chanqchur, Épinards de buffle	Riz gonflé, Chanachur,Patate douce,Thé sans sucre,Muraly
31	Pain,Omelette,Lait et Thé sans sucre	Riz,Haricot vert/yardlong,Ruban séché poisson avec Gourde épineuse et graines de Jacquier,Ruhi poisson et Soupe de lentilles	Patate douce	Muraly,Thé sans sucre,Riz gonflé et Chanachur
01	Pain,Haricot vert/yardlong, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Ruhi poisson,Épinards d’eau, Gourde serpent, Soupe de lentilles.	Patate douce	Muraly,Thé sans sucre,Riz battu au ait l
02	Pain,Gourde serpent,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Purée de pommes de terre,Anchois gangétique,Poisson ruban séché dans gourde épineuse, graines de Jacquier, Haricot vert	Nouilles, Riz battu au lait froid	Thé sans sucre,Biscuit
03	Pain,Haricot vert,Thé sans sucre	Khichri(un plat de riz et lentilles populaire dans jour pluevial),haricot vert, omelette, concombre et citron.	Pois de chiches,Chanachur,Riz gonflé	Thé sans sucre,Riz gonflé, pois de chiches