It Is Time To Integrate Them

Forced repatriation leads to a situation in tatters, Integration is the key solution that really matters.

Bangladesh witnessed 8th anniversary of Rohingya influx in the country. Around 11 million Rohingyas now reside in various camps across Southern part of Bangladesh. Promised repatriation did not take place as anticipated, rather Myanmar descended into a civil war,which is likely to wane after the election. Patience wears thin in cash-strapped Bangladesh. Aid is drying up. Learning centers are closing down in the camps.Some Rohingyas met horrifying death at sea while attempting to reach the affluent East-Asian countries. This year a boat capsize off the coast of Thailand killed 400 Rohingyas, a shocking number. What is more shocking an UNHCR official [attributed] the reason to aid cut.

I think aid cut has nothing to do with growing vulnerabilities of the Rohingyas.It is the uncertainties of their status,lack of right and opportunities that led them to meet this tragic end at the sea.

There is a growing cry to repatriate them to Myanmar,where other communities are not prepared to take them back. Myanmar is not a democratic country, where groups,people still settle dispute through guns. At the same time ,Bangladesh has to keep good relations with all the groups and stakeholders including Tatmadaw. It will take time for one group accepting other group and reintegration into the society.

Peaceful Myanmar, particularly the frontier state,is crucial to the development of Bangladesh. Bangladesh alone cannot stop the clash inside Myanmar. But we have to strive hard to make sure that conflict zone lies 1000 km away from our border so that our frontier villagers do not heard gunshot and development works go peacefully inside Bangladesh. In that light, balkanization of Myanmar does not serve our long term purpose.

Meanwhile, any forceful repatriation is neither good for the Rohingyas, nor for Bangladesh. We have to conduct a survey among the Rohingyas about their repatriation. Those want to stay back should be integrated into Bangladeshi society by giving them citizenship. We should negotiate for those who want to stay here. A safer place inside Myanmar, maybe a dedicated island or the Mandalay or Yangoon region,where they will not be attacked again. To reduce their vulnerabilities, we should offer economic opportunities for all irrespective of their position on repatriation. Current donor-funded NGO works inside the camps are not sustainable. Under the auspices of the UN, the security force may take charge of conducting relief works and other humanitarian activities. Former US army personnel, former Tatmadaw officers, former PLA soldiers may provide their assistance as educators,health workers, entrepreneurship development coach and other professions. I earlier argued about "Made By Rohingya" initiative to start business operated by the Rohingyas(See "Made By Rohingya",published on https://rezaulhoque.wordpress.com on March 09,2018, and "Chalk Out A Domestic Rohingya Policy", published here on January 19,2019). At the same time, free movement of the Rohingyas by large passenger-cum-cargo ships across the other countries of Malacca straits and the Middle East ,to a great extent,will reduce their isolation and vulnerabilities and thwart risky sea-crossing attempt. Apart from that, paramilitary forces may recruit 5000 Rohingyas and lift out 5000 families from poverty. And it will fill the void inside security forces where there is a dearth of Rohingya and [Rakhine] speaking people. Two dedicated TV channels in Rohingya and Rakhine language should be launched so that camp dwellers and Bangladeshis get info about camp life and what is going on inside Myanmar.

NGO activities should be restricted and replaced with local initiatives and income earning opportunities. Bangladesh can recruit foreign law firms, consultancy firms operated by former security personnel, police to cross check info about foreign nationals taking jobs here inside the camps or working in diplomatic mission. In Bangladesh , many of them are not seasoned professionals and often they are not reintegrated into their organization. Cox's Bazar and frontier districts are sensitive spots. And Bangladesh can ill afford wasting foreign taxpayers' money by allowing such individuals. In that light, this foreign aid cut is doing a great service [to] Bangladesh rather than a disservice. Humanitarian efforts should focus on [addressing] real issues on the ground , not to create wage employment for foreign nationals.

The civil war in Sri Lanka pushed many Tamils into India. At least 1 million preferred to stay back and did not return.Things are not that bad in Rakhine state. But we have to give time so that one community accepts the other. Bangladesh has to maintain good relations with all the groups, stakeholders of Myanmar. Any balkanization of the region is detrimental to our interests. Since repatriation will take time, we may integrate part of the Rohingyas into Bangladesh, [provide] economic opportunities to all of them,[arrange] maritime access to other countries through some accord, [ensure] more engagement of foreign Army veterans of key regional powers in providing humanitarian assistance, [ensure] less dependence on NGOs and [launch] made-by-Rohingya initiative [that] will reduce the vulnerabilities of the Rohingyas to a great extent.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 17 août --- 23 août)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
17	Riz,Soups aux lentilles,Œuf,Haricot vert	Riz,Gourde bouteille,Haricot rouge	Riz,Haricot rouge	---
18	Riz,Œuf,Gourde bouteille,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Luffa,Ruhi	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Gourde bouteilles,Ruhi	---
19	Riz,Œuf,Gourde bouteille,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Haricot very,Ruhi	Pain,Haricot vert,Ruhi	----
20	Riz,Œuf,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé(depuis marché)	Riz,Gourde bouteille,Papaye	---
21	Pain	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Latya,Gourde bouteille	Riz,Soups aux lentilles,Gourde bouteille, Latya,Petit Poisson	----
22	Pain	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Banane verte	Riz,Pomme de terre,Rita,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	----

Thinking The Unthinkable

NBR misses the revenue target, Taxing export maybe the solution perfect.

Latest NBR revenue collection data shows the collection for July falls short of the stated target by Tk 28.62 billion. VAT outshines others,but income tax and customs duty did not perform as anticipated. The shortfall came amid rising food inflation while international commodity market showing a downward trend.

It is hard to ascertain what caused the price of rice to rise amid record production. If there were [a producer] price index ,then we could see where the problem lies. I have argued about this here(See "Resume The Routine Work", published here on October 9,2024). Unfortunately, it is not available and neither govt nor the BBS shows any intention to launch it pretty soon.

Governor himself acknowledged that $35 billion was plundered from the banking system in the last 15 years. Unlike the USA, Bangladesh does not allow any bank to collapse. So an initiative is on to merge six trouble-ridden banks. Literally, govt is taking the bad managerial decision of the troubled banks upon its shoulder. Letting them go bankrupt would be more prudent solution: you made a wrong decision and you bear the consequences. Govt does not bail out petty businesses, why should it bail out politically motivated projects?

NBR is desperate to make new directives. One directive seeks bank account details of TIN holders. Tax deduction on bank deposits, balance at the end of June and interest earned are the information to be investigated in real time for online tax return. The new directive will discard the need for such proof as the whole thing will happen in real time. Instead of going after how much existing TIN holders earned, it is better to expand operation in other districts, particularly in border districts and real estate booming districts like Sylhet, Chattogram and Rajshahi. Recovering the stolen asset, as govt claimed it traced $3 billion worth of stolen asset abroad, will be another area. Next 4 months after election may see unexpected rise in revenue as new elected govt will assume office for 4 years. Many laundered assets will come back in disguise of FDI, export earnings and remittances. Late [Prof.] Nurul Islam did a remarkable research on this topic and highlighted the two way traffic of this stolen asset(see "Corruption,Its Control And Drivers Of Change: The Case Of Bangladesh",by Nurul Islam,BIDS)

If NBR is really eager to boost revenue, the most plausible way is to impose tax (at least 1%) on remittances and export as I explained in an earlier piece. Central bank's depreciation policy through forex intervention and reduction in reciprocal tariff made room for such taxation. Why not take the advantage while leaving the industry unscathed? Another area is to reimpose duty on sugar that generates ample revenue for the govt. It will bring domestic sugar on [a par] with imported sugar in terms of price. Standard & Poor's forecast says oil prices will be lower next year. So inflationary pressure will not be a concern.

Meeting the revenue target should focus on expansion of taxpayers' base, thinking the unthinkable ( taxing the remittances and export), sugar tax and stolen asset recovery. Hopefully ,post election period will bring the much needed optimism and make NBR's task much easier.

[Update: this piece is updated by me on August 21,2025; update includes link to references.]

Need For Combined Policy

Agriculture policy should include biofuel, Creating ecosystem and make changes real.

The central bank is planning to provide Tk 390 billion worth of agricredit for the next fiscal year. The decision came amid rising inflation and good harvest of rice last year. Agriculture has growing leverage in employment, value addition and boosting consumption in other sectors. For instance, motorbike industry attributes increase in sales to rising remittances and boost in agricultural production,which augments income of rural households.

Since value addition to agriculture is higher than any other sector, its growth has lasting impact on the economy and provides extra capital for other businesses. In particular, good rice production could reduce the pressure on inflation and thereby may lead to a stable macroeconomic [situation]. Last year, Bangladesh produced $2 billion worth of extra rice. We have a better potato yield last year. The extra harvest ,however, contributed to drop in prices, causing woes to many potato farmers. Perhaps rice yield is not good enough to bring down the prices. So we have to import more rices from abroad.

Last year's extra earnings also include around $4.7 billion worth of remittances, which our workers earned working abroad, and around $2.59 billion worth of RMG export. The extra earnings set the ground for monetary intervention provided that extra earnings surpass extra losses of last year (see"Last Year's Extra Money", published here on January 10,2025).

But there are some questions on extra RMG earnings and remittances. As value addition to some items in the RMG is low, a large part of earnings go to pay off the input cost. In addition, some of the laundered money of past years return home in disguise of remittances and RMG earnings, producing nothing or adding no value to economy rather creating inflationary pressure. Not only that most of the RMG export money do not come to the country in the same fiscal year. So in the end true extra earnings from RMG export and remittances are much lower than the reported value. In that light, extra agricultural production retains most of the earnings at home and is crucial for the economy.

I think Bangladesh should blend its agriculture policy with a national biofuel/ethanol policy. If there is no biofuel policy,then we should introduce one. India has an active biofuel policy where it meets a certain percentage of its energy needs through biofuel. The byproduct of the biofuel industry is used as animal feed, which we also import from India. So having a functional biofuel policy means good use of extra yields of potato,tomato etc and creating an ecosystem for livestock and fisheries industry. Peasants are protected from any drop in prices and transportation cost will come down as petrol filling stations in rural areas will sell petrol-biofuel mix.

So combined agriculture and biofuel policy will help peasants from price shock,developing new industry, reducing transportation cost in rural areas and curbing inflation. Another special advantage is it will help providing a steady supply of grain, potato( even lower quality from abroad) for the biofuel industry and thereby helping grain market stable. Agricredit in that case will have more meaningful use,upholding peasant's interest, and monetary intervention, even amid tight monetary policy,will be justified.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 10 août --- 16 août)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
09	Pain,Papaye	Pain,Feuilles de Taro,Pangash	Pain,Papaye,Pangash	---
10	Riz,Banane,Lait poudre(	Riz,Épinard malabar,Soupe aux lentilles,Sec latya	Nouilles	---
11	Riz,Banane,Lait poudre	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard malabar,Haricot vert	---	----
12	Riz,Banane,Lait poudre	Pain,Soupe aux lentilles,Omelette	---	---
13	Riz,Banane,Lait poudre(depuis matché)	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Haricot vert	---	----
14	Riz,Lentilles-Papaye,Œuf	Pain,Haricot vert,Gourde bouteillle	Riz gonflé(depuis marché),Pois chiches	---
15	Riz,Lentilles-Papaye,Œuf,Pomme de terre	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Courge amère	---	----

Policy Rate Perks And Taxing Export

Policy rate has many solutions to offer, Tax export to fill govt coffer.

Latest inflation data reveals that inflation rose to 8.55% from 8.48% in July. Constant increase in rice prices,caused food inflation to rise to 9.56% in June , and rise in nonfood inflation from 9.37% to 9.38% maybe the reason for this hike. Rice price in particular increased by Tk 8/ kilo, prompting govt to allow private importers to import rice.

Meanwhile, keeping the policy rate at double digit is still being criticized though it brought down inflation from 11% to current level. The govt is apolitical and it has courage to do this thing before election. Otherwise, popular govt may have difficulties maintaining this kind of contractionary policy amid pressure from various groups. Before election, investors are reluctant to go for new investment and poor private sector credit growth tells all of it. So the timing is good and central bank is doing the right thing though many thought it was wrong.

As I highlighted before, keeping the policy rate high thwarted would-be launderers from taking loans and keeps Taka's value stable. Lowering the policy rate may make central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market ineffective. With the high policy rate, depreciation pressure on Taka is low, so central bank's intervention in forex market will lead Taka keep a desired value. With low policy rate, depreciation pressure on Taka will be higher as the NPL keeps growing, so forex market intervention may not yield the desired result and wild fall of Taka maybe observed, worsening the passthrough effects of inflation and farther raising the cost of goods and services. Another thing I mentioned in one of my earlier posts is that higher policy rate is helping many ailing private and public institutions and it helps provident fund to grow,addressing the inflation. Otherwise, govt would have to intervene and provide cash to them through printing money or using the bloc grants. The balance sheets of many institutions say ,as the news reports revealed, they made profit through investment in treasury bonds. Again market mechanism addressing the prevailing maladies, when investment prospect and law & order situation is doomed at grassroot level. Recently, I encountered a news report on a public sugar mill[,located in Jhenidah,] bogged down with unsold sugar worth of TK 360 million as market price is lower than the govt set price. The mill is waiting with the sugar stock amid undue payments for the workers. If the provident fund's money is invested into treasury bonds, then by this time workers would take loan from provident fund and may not face financial hardship. They might sell the sugar in favorable time and clear the loans. Govt intervention would not need at all. Moreover, situation like workers [descending] on streets could be avoided.

The 20% tariff is not something to remain complacent. Back in February, no one would imagine such a situation might pop up. But it happened and seriously jolted the macroeconomic situation. We have to accept that WTO is dead and we live in post WTO world. We exactly do not know what will happen in the next two quarters. So there is no reason for being content with the 20% tariff. Rather, we should chalk out contingency plan how to avoid situation like this again.

It is indeed interesting that other countries are imposing [tax] on our exports and remittances while we are charging nothing. I argued several times if we would tax remittances and export(*see "Tax On Remittance: Good Or Bad?", published here on May 20,2025), govt coffer might fill with ample money to provide more private sector credit. 1% tax on remittances and export will bring Tk 4/5 billion revenue , discarding the need for imposing minimum tax on all the TIN holders. Revenue will be used to intervene in the forex market to depreciate Taka in a bid to give incentives and provide private sector credit to banks. There should be two way traffic of receiving incentives and giving tax.

It is indeed a good move to keep the policy rate same as it screens out would-be launderers, improves balance sheet of companies amid stagnant business, keeps the depreciation pressure low, checks cost of production and [reduces] need for govt intervention. 20% tariff does not herald a new dawn rather exposes challenges in a post WTO world where black swan events will be more frequent. We should start imposing tax on remittances and exports to cover the incentives. Preparing and bracing ourselves against the black swan event will prevent the need for Middle Eastern intervention for saving the day.

[*Update: this piece is updated on August 12,2025. The update includes reference to tax on remittance argument.]

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 03 août --- 09 août)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
03	Pain,Jaggery	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	---
04	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Riz,Papaye,Pangash	Pain,Haricot very,Soupe aux lentilles	---
05	Pain,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Mangue(depuis marché),Lait poudre	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Latya	----
06	Pain,Papaye	Pain,Soupe aux lentilles,Papaye,Bronze featherback	Riz,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles	dattes
07	Pain,Papaye	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Papaye	Riz,Papaye	Dattes,Biscuits(depuis marché)
08	Riz,Papaye	Riz,,Pangash	Riz,Papaye,Pangash	dattes

MPS And The New Tariff

Challenges are there amid low tariff, MPS targets depend on but and if.

Bangladesh Bank formally published the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the second half of 2025. Inflation declined to [8.48%] in June,yet it has not touched the desired level of 7% ,below which policy rate may witness a drop. MPS aims to achieve 5.5% GDP growth rate in FY 2026. Key developments in the first half of this year set some positive indications on that direction. Free floating of exchange rate did not witness sharp fall of Taka rather Taka appreciated and the central bank had to intervene to depreciate Taka in order to give exporters and remitters incentives. Forex reserves start to grow and stopped the continuous decline.

However, private sector credit growth was low compared to what it had been projected. Only 6.4% growth achieved against the target of 9.8%. For this reason, the target is set to be 7.2%. Election uncertainties, poor law & order condition and drop in deposit growth might have contributed to the poor private sector credit growth.

Broad money growth also witnessed decline. Its impact may be seen in the next 2 months. As demand for major commodities will be lower, anticipated in the MPS, in the international market and dollar may be further weakened impact of import-induced inflation may be lower. So deflationary pressure may prevail provided that govt's grain procurement is satisfactory and no deterioration or fresh eruption of regional conflicts in multiple regions.

MPS highlighted govt's formation of three task forces to reform the banks,stricter policies to classify loan, review of risk guidelines, introduction of new laws to get rid of troubled banks and managing the Non Performing Loans (NPL). But the NPL turned worst and keeps growing. So it is highly unlikely that NPL situation will improve dramatically when domestic private sector investment is stagnant and govt is heading towards election preparations.

Lowering of US tariff to 20% from 35% came as a relief to the cash strapped economy. But there is little room for complacency. China faces 30% tariff, India 25%, Vietnam 20%,Indonesia 32% and Pakistan 19% tariff. Most of these countries have huge investment in backward linkage industry. Their value addition to readymade garments,particular in woven, is relatively higher than Bangladesh. But Bangladesh has the largest number of US and EU compliant green factories and Bangladeshi workers are more productive than workers of those countries. But both China and Vietnam have sustained policies to weaken their currencies. India has to depreciate its currency by 5% to be on per with the other competitors. So this tariff rate is only delusional, it is the macroeconomic policy, productivity, investment in value addition that will be the deciding factors in capturing the US market share. Though for the moment depreciation pressure on Taka is low, keeping a close tab on how Yuan, Rupee and Dong behave against USD in the next 2/3 months will chart the course for our exchange rate policy.

Despite favorable context in the international commodities market and export market, there are challenges in achieving the 5.5% GDP growth rate. Govt itself apprehends domestic turbulence ahead of election. In addition, low private sector credit growth shows no sign of optimism. If govt bars the undocumented money into real estate and allows it to banks,then law and order situation may dramatically improve and liquidity situation in the banks may improve as well.

Non Trade Issues Shape Businesses

Businesses hurt by spreading of panic, Buying US jet is to comply decision strategic.

Bangladesh keeps the policy rate same and signals to continue contractionary monetary policy. Meanwhile, it is the deteriorating law and order condition that holds back businesses rather than the short supply of credit to the private sector. Investors and businesses are waiting for the next election. What is interesting govt machinery itself is causing confusion and complicating the situation.

Take for instance, a directive from the Police's special branch to stay alert ahead of July anniversary for possible subversive activities. The Chief of Police and even the Minister of Home Affairs played ignorant about such directive. The panic mongering is created by the govt itself. Police is supposed to provide assurance instead of spreading panic.

This lack of coordination and widespread extortion is hurting business confidence. It is a pity that this apolitical govt,which is largely formed through blackmailing, is facing this kind of troubles. Our restoration to democracy and pre COVID level economy will be challenging compared to Sri Lanka where all the parties reached consensus, ensured justice to all (including victims of ruling party) ,and held a free and fair election.

Meanwhile, as a desperate measure, Bangladesh pledged to purchase 25 aircrafts from Boeing to break the ice on the negotiation table before August 1 deadline. Bangladesh also pledged to buy US wheats for the next 5 years. Soybeans, cotton are also on the commitment list. It is interesting that head of the national flag carrier did not know the purchase of Boeing aircraft. But the ministry officials said it was a strategic move. So far the commitments are for next 5/7 years. It is not known with certainty whether Bangladesh economy will back on track in the next 4 years and the national flag carrier has expansion plan of such big number of aircrafts (Biman does need aircrafts, there is no need).But Boeing also makes combat aircraft. In association with SAAB, Boeing manufactures advanced jet trainer Red Hawk T-7. It has a base price of $20 million, but with spares, munitions, maintenance and training, the cost may reach around $50 million. 25 of such aircraft will cost the BAF, which is likely to retire its entire Chinese F-7 fleet, around $1.2 billion. Adding the purchase commitment of wheat,soybeans,cotton and other US goods (+ services) , Bangladesh's import from the USA may rise to around $4/5 billion in the next 1/2 years, significantly reducing the trade surplus it currently enjoys.

It does make sense buying the T-7 Red Hawk when the country is facing economic crisis and the BAF requires new jets to replace the aging fleet. It is within the budget and in compliance with the US demand from moving away from the Chinese military hardware.

Govt's poor management worsening the law and order,hurting businesses. Bangladesh's prevailing economic conditions and strategic consideration insinuate it is likely to induct US advanced trainer jet.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 26 juillet --- 02 août)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
26	Riz gonflé,Lait	Riz,Feuilles de Moringa,Œuf(depuis marché),Papaye	Riz,Purée de feuilles de taro,Papaye	---
27	Riz,Lait	Riz,Poulet,Gourde blanche	Pain,Poulet	Riz gonflé
28	Riz,Œuf (depuis marché),Papaye	Riz,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Pain,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Riz gonflé,Mangue
29	Riz,Œuf(depuis marché),Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Riz,Épinard d'eau,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Pain,Haricot rouge avec sec latya	Mangue(depuis marché)
30	Riz,Œuf (depuis marché),Soupe aux lentilles,Haricot vert	Riz,Haricot vert,Purée de banane verte,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Papaye	Riz gonflé,Mangue(depuis marché)
31	Riz,Œuf,Purée de banane verte,Papaye	Riz,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois chichea	Riz gonflé,Pois chiches	Mangue
30	Riz,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles,Poulet	Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain,Papaye	Riz gonflé,Mangue(depuis marché)
01	Riz,Poulet,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles,Mangue	Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Poulet	Mangue

Combat Aircraft Loss And Governance

[Reproduced below is a piece written back on April 04,2019 to see impact of governance on BAF. I think it is relevant to reproduce it again]

Recently I have come across a very interesting stat posted on the social media page of a defense lover group. It is about the crash record of Bangladesh Air Force since Bangladesh came into being. With one or two minor omissions it includes all the crash data of BAF. BAF suffered 90 aircrafts loss in 48 years.Suddenly the idea of finding the link between governance and crash record came to my mind. Common perception is that under "representative regime" , there would be better governance in every sector and they would run smoothly. There would be better maintenance of aircrafts, better storage facility and better training.

BAF lost 11 aircrafts in 2013-2018, a period many described as "hybrid regime".Having a closer look at the breakdown of crash incidents reveals that crashes under a "representative government" (27) surpasses that(19) under a "non-representative government".

But I hold the common perception and did a statistical analysis.
Though the result is a bit contradictory, it is interesting. The 48 years of Bangladesh is divided into 9 distinct periods. Depending on the nature of the government, the regime is dubbed as "representative" or "not representative". The representative regime, which is assigned to value 1, is assumed to come to power through free and fair poll. I did not decide the type of regime , rather its recognition by local and international bodies decided its type.

Since there are too many regime changes in the 70s, I termed 1972-80 as one distinct period. Then I counted the crash incidents took place in that period. BAF's worst moment came in 1991 when tidal wave rendered 40 fighter jets and 4 helicopters useless.Aircraft loss due to war or natural disaster however was not taken into consideration. For this reason, I ignored the 1971 trainer crash and loss of BAF 44 aircrafts in 1991 cyclone.

To test my conviction that "representative regime" has lower crash record, I ran a Poisson regression. For that, I first tried to find out the total number of combat aircrafts at BAF's disposal at the end of the respective period and proportion of crashed aircrafts to the total number of aircrafts in that period, which I called "fraction" here. Since it is difficult to get the exact number of BAF inventory, I took assistance of Wikipedia to get an approximate number of aircrafts in 2018 and then scaled down the total to glean information for earlier periods.Another thing to note is that I also took into consideration the aircrafts of Army Aviation Group but discarded the ones operated by the Navy while counting the total. Proportion of crashed aircraft to total aircrafts will give a better reading because loss of 1 aircraft from a total of 2 means a loss of 50%. Similarly, a loss of 1 aircraft from 20 means a 5% loss. Absolute number of loss could lead to misleading information. That is why I rest my trust on proportion, "the fraction" in this case.

While running the regression I dropped the observation for 1986-90, because no crash took place during that period. And exposure does not count any zero.

I first ran the regression with exposure( ) and then without the exposure( ) but including the variable that would normalize exposure.

The first run says combat aircraft crash under "representative regime" is 1.185 times larger than that of "non-representative regime". However, since it falls within the 95% confidence interval, I cannot reject the hypothesis that "representative regime" has lower crash records. The second run, without exposure, yields similar results. It is still 1.185 times larger and I cannot rule out that crash record under "representative regime" is lower. Due to the results from regression, I cannot draw a definitive conclusion between BAF aircraft crash and governance.

[Please send your comments, contested views at mrh4478@gmail.com]

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 19 juillet --- 25 juillet)

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Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
19	Pain,Sucre	Riz,Latya	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles	---
20	Riz gonflé,Lait,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Gourde bouteille	Riz gonflé	---
21	Riz gonflé,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Purée de poisson	Riz gonflé	---
22	Riz gonflé,Lait,Œuf	Riz,Poulet,Épinard malabar	Riz gonflé	Mangue
23	Riz gonflé,Œuf,Lait	Riz,Poulet,Épinard malabar	---	---
24	Riz gonflé,Lait	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard malabar	Riz,Poulet	---
25	Riz gonflé,Lait,Guave	Riz,Latya(depuis marché),Feuilles de moringa	Riz,Latya(depuis marché)	---

Lawlessness Is Still Rampant

Innocents fall prey to violence, Restore law and order to bring back confidence.

Two weeks short of the first anniversary of the fall of previous govt, there is little improvement in law and order situation. Earlier govt said it would need 17000 fresh security personnel to hold a free and fair election. Training of constables requires 6 months and for the sub inspector it will take as long as one year. If the process of fresh recruitment has started in November, by this time we would have 4000 new police , still inadequate to fill the void created by deserted police personnel. Training of soldiers and paramilitary personnel takes a lot of time. What is interesting degradation of law and order is happening while the Army has the magistracy power.Meanwhile, govt is poised to hold an election at the earliest of 2026, an uphill task amid the restive situation on the ground.

Absence of democratic govt cost us dearly. Handling of the tariff dialogue with the USA is criticized right and left. Unless we are able to get a fair concession, we may lose a chunk of the US market. In addition, the democratic govt can handle the law and order condition better than any other form of govt. The economy is suffering dearly since grass-root law and order condition is in tatters. Small businesses and investors shelving up their plan for future. Meanwhile, whatever trickling flow of fund comes to the private sector is not finding any productive use due to the anarchy on the ground.

While govt is incapable of maintaining the law and order situation, it is not so wise to let the political parties to hold so many meetings across the sensitive areas. It complicated the situation.

If the flow of undocumented money into real estate is stopped, it will dramatically improve the law and order situation. This kind of dispute often takes into other forms including the political one and ends up in violence. With a special decree ,govt may stop the flow of illicit money into the real estate, thereby helping many vulnerable groups and families who often fall prey to such violence and add the number of homeless people.

Precondition for holding a fair election and fixing the battered economy is to restore the law and order condition quickly. If it requires foreign boots on the ground then the govt should do that. In Rakhine State, Myanmar allows foreign countries to recruit security personnel from abroad. Bangladesh should do the same in some areas and police deployed there maybe redeployed to other priority areas. Innocent and vulnerable individuals, groups and families fall victims to this lawlessness. Tally of the victims is the eye opener. Govt should walk extra mile to protect the lives of these innocent people.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

( 12 juillet --- 18 juillet)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
12	Riz,Œuf,Brinjal,Poulet	Riz,Poulet,Papaye	Riz,Poulet	Mangue
13	---	Riz,Papaye,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois chiches	Riz,Papaye,Œuf,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois chiches, Pomme de terre	Jaquier,Mangue
14	---	Riz,Omelette,Soupe aux lentilles,Épinard malabar	Riz gonflé, Pois chiches, Tchanatchur(depuis marché)	Pois chiches
15	Pain, Pomme de terre	Riz,Latya	Riz,Latya,Pomme de terre bhaji	---
16	Pain,Pomme de terre bhaji,Œuf	Riz,Petit taro chinois	Riz,Petit taro chinois	---
17	---	Riz,Poulet,Gourde bouteille	Riz gonflé	---
18	Riz,Lait,Banane	Pain,Banane	Pain	---

Non Trade Issues Halt Trade Talks

Trade talks halted on non trade issues, Nonstatic threat comes from out of the blues.

Bangladesh and the US trade talks enters stalemate over non-trade issues. A nondisclosure agreement bars the two parties disclosing nitty-gritty of the ongoing deal(80% agreed). The press highlighted the disagreement areas on following US sanctions on other countries, restrictions on WTO's MFN clause, less import from China etc.

Earlier when the Chinese trade minister visited Bangladesh a press report claimed that China wanted similar concessions in trade if the US would get some in Bangladesh. If it is indeed true ,then it would put Bangladesh into serious trouble.

There is no doubt that we have to increase our import from the US and to retain the valuable market. But the issues brought up, if the press report is indeed true, mean the end of WTO or redrafting its core rules or inventing another WTO-like organization that will incorporate the new trade realities in this changing world.

Threat is a changing phenomenon. We do not know the exact source from where it may emanate. And threat has many aspects apart from territorial encroachment. So identifying one as foe or friend is really difficult in this world. While addressing the security issues,we have to keep in mind the shifting nature of threat in this complex world. So our security challenges may not be the same as our trading partners.

But we have to keep good relations and retain the markets in the West. As I have said earlier, losing the West favor may lead us to losing the favor of others. Even if this trade talks hits the dead end, we should not retaliate. We should maintain zero tariffs to US goods. So that in future it will give us favorable ground for talks.

As I have said repeatedly, a large part of this tariff impact can be offset through depreciation of currency, which will be difficult in future due to US policy of weakening USD. In recent week, Taka appreciated because of constant flow of USD.Just in a month USD lost 1.7% of its value. As major economies across the world lower their dependence on US treasury bond and USD, there are abundant supply of USD. The central bank did the right thing by buying USD and keeping Taka weak. Otherwise, the Bangladesh Bank has to give incentives to exporters and remitters. 2.5% incentives to remitters cost the govt Tk 70 billion per annum. This is avoided through market mechanism while checking the inflation. I highlighted the thing in the past.

In brief, since threat is an evolving phenomenon in this complex world, it is difficult to give binding commitment on security issues. At the same time, we have to keep good relations with the West. In troubling times, they and their institutions come forward for rescue. Look at the sub Saharan countries,which rely on both the West and China on investment and aid, now look up for help of western institutions amid acute macroeconomic crisis as Chinese investment is drying up. Macroeconomic policy mix and adjustment is the key to face any adverse consequences of tariff.