La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(14 février --- 21 février)


Selon un reportage, la presse koweïtienne a accusé un député Bangladais pour avoir trafiqué beaucoup de Bangladais et pour avoir amassé Tk 14 milliards. Le parti au pouvoir l'a qualifié comme «Fake News». La presse koweïtienne s'est dite que presque 20 milles Bangladais sont devenus ses victimes.

Selon un reportage, trois policiers de la gendarmerie de Ramna ont été accusé d' avoir extorqué près de  Tk 10 millions depuis un homme d'affaires.

Selon un reportage, environ 5500 Bangladais sont revenus au Bangladesh depuis l'Arabie saoudite. Beaucoup de Bangladais ne sont pas arrivés à obtenir l'Ikama(permis de travail) là-bas.

Selon un reportage, brigade de la gendarmerie spéciale de terrorisme a fait écho de la position prise par le ministère des Affaires Étrangères au propos de Shamima Begum qui est parti pour Irak pour joindre Daech. Une cour anglaise a déjà révoqué sa nationalité anglaise. Ses avocats essaient de la repousser vers Bangladesh. Mais le ministre des Affaires étrangères a dit qu'elle n'était pas bienvenue au Bangladesh. Et la porte de Bangladesh était fermée pour djihadistes.
Selon un reportage, un fidèle de groupe indigène a été tué par balles à Rangamati.

Selon un reportage, le prêtre qui a mené les prières funèbres d'une prostituée a été sévèrement critiqué. Il s'est dit qu'il ne menait jamais les prières funèbres d'une prostituée.

Selon un reportage, le chef de la force frontière a été accusé d'avoir lien avec un dirigeant du casino du cybermonde par un site de nouvelles. Le dirigeant a été appréhendé par RAB. Le site a publié des photos de deux.

O Python, Where Are You?

I have lost a python,
Representing an era bygone,
From my alphabet book.
They come to the fair,
Leafing book not to brook
Publication deemed don't care
Other people's sentiments.
Teachers' blood, bloggers' blood,
Flooded the path and pavements.
Yet the fair is on and sales flood.
But the door is shut for publishers,
Hailing from other side of the fence .
To groom pure learners,
Textbook by others is an offence.
On how to make better mind
They still take a good look.
I say be kind,
If found, please return
The python to alphabet book.

Curtain of Ekushey Book Fair is about to drop. The state of such a peerless event caused a mixed reaction. Many lament about its glorious past and vibrant years. Others still optimist about a bright future.This pretty old fair still radiates an aura of its fledgling years. Professionalism is not there, amateurs roam around with august writers and veil of protectionism envelopes the mood of the fair. In recent years a new feature has been added: vice policing has been introduced to check for "sacrilegious contents".

I wrote many posts about the fair. Two years ago I even interviewed stall owners and Bangla Academy officials about the nature of the fair and book sales. Response I got revealed a fair that can be best described as amateurism. Staggering number of published titles is unbelievable, so is the amount of money.

Absence of Kolkata based publishers is another feature of this fair in spite of the fact that 21st February earned the recognition of International Mother Language Day. Kolkata based writers and publishers are popular in this part of the world. Popular dailies here are often named after the novels written Kolkata based novelists. Culture and literature of this country took a direct hit of the ugly face of communal divide. Subtle idea of "us vs them" was introduced immediately after independence and carefully cultivated to popularize a so called " Bengali Muslim Mind" and "Bengali Muslim Literature". This school of thought has gained so much ground in this country that the more ugly face of them managed to amend school text books to get rid of literary works of Hindu poets and writers of undivided Bengal.

In one of my bus rides, I noticed a fellow passenger leafed through an introductory alphabet book(Bangla) for his school going toddler. When I was at that age, I read books where the first alphabet, "Shareo O", was introduced like this "Shareo O te Ojogor"("Shareo O" for python).That cute looking, innocent python from my alphabet book is gone. Picture of a boy performing ablutions took its place. Python, from its habitat in nearby forest to alphabet book, finally gave in to the relentless struggle to build a "Bengali Muslim Mind".

Marketing of this concept now pays the dividend. The Bangladeshi publication industry is concentrated into the hands of the few. A decade ago we had various weeklies, dailies and specialized periodicals brought out by various publication houses. Now only few hold sway in that industry. Many writers dominating that industry churn out books, which never make their way into the shelf of their daughters and wives living abroad or taught in English medium schools. Since a great deal of emotion attached to this fair, a ritualistic selling spree does the trick. Rest of the year , you do not see any book review, advertisement of books on key dailies. Even no dedicated book reviewing publication, like the one exists in Kolkata, is brought out by any publication house. When I read popular dailies and books published in Kolkata , I am amazed by craftsmanship and scholarship displayed in those concise sentences imbued with an array of words ( mostly from Persian, Sanskrit and Urdu roots) that you cannot find in any of the contents published here. They could construct those sentences because they have ease of access to those kind of publications that replenish and shape their minds. Our readers and writers do not have that kind of access.

What we are seeing in literature and publication industry is a new kind of colonialism where most of these writers, whose dear ones hardly touch their books and live abroad, feed the commoners' mind some works that never vie for competition emanating from other side of the fence.

Source: Leading Dailies

As the oligarchy has reached its peak, we see books airbrushing the history, custom-made publications glutted the stalls. Overwhelming number of book sales did not tell the whole story. I gathered data on published titles and book sold over the last one decade by digging the news reports. In 2008, 2578 titles were published and Tk 20 cores worth of books were sold. In 2018, 4591 titles were unveiled and Tk 70.94 crores worth of books were sold. There has been a surge in books published and books sold in spite of a series of rigid measures like ICT Act amendment, introduction of National Broadcast Policy, banning books deemed controversial to a certain quarter and vice policing. One may question published contents and its type in the face of this fear-mongering steps. I constructed a dummy regression to see whether this kind of intervention reflected in book sales.

Books_i = a₁+a₂D_i+b₁Published_i+b₂D_iPublished_i+u_i

where

Books_i = amount of books sold in the fair. Published _i = number of books published in the fair,
D_i = 0 when the year is prior to 2013
= 1 when the year is after 2013

Prior to the model, I checked for autocorrelation as the data is time series in nature. Durbin-Watson statistic hinted no autocorrelation. (d= 1.5126 for 11 observations and 1 explanatory variable).

So I did not transform the model and ran the usual regression. It looked like this

Books_i = 7.368-95.40D_i+0.0046Published_i+0.0305D_iPublished_i

F test( a₂=b₂=0) was found to be significant (F=5.315, p=0.032 for degree of freedom =3,7), insinuating structural change in the regression. However, individual probe revealed that intercept a₁(t=0.159, p= 0.877), differential intercept, a₂(t=0.310, p= 0.76), slope coefficient, b₁(t=0.31, p=0.765) and differential slope coefficient, b₂(t=1.69, p= 0.134) appeared to be insignificant. So there was lack of evidence that structural change took place in the regression equation. Had the parameters changed, then the regression equation finally might look like:
Books_i = (7.368-95.40)+(0.0046+0.0305)Published_i =-88.04+0.0351Published_i

The stat analysis did not endorse this. So there was lack of evidence to see the differential effect of books published on books sold in the period of blogger killing spree and rigid laws.

From 2012 to 2015, book sold in the fair declined. Those years were politically violent and law & order situation deteriorated. Whatever the stat says , there is no gainsaying that our publication industry has been going through a degeneration phase. Current veil of protectionism is just the grist to that school of thought's mill.

A regressed society cannot question elites' conduct and whimsical actions. It is a docile instrument at the hands of elites that have little respect for people's opinion and verdict.

New ideas, innovation, urge to change are conspicuously absent in that society. Current state of our society is a reminder that we have already slided into that grim reality. To build a society that can withstand challenges of the time and to make sure budding minds meet more refined minds, veil of protectionism should be discarded. Bringing back the python to my alphabet book could be the first step.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(07 février --- 14 février)

Selon un reportage, une cour a condamné à mort des djihadistes pour avoir ciblé le parquet de Jhalakathi et tué un procureur.

Selon un reportage, des voleurs ont tenté d' entrer par effraction dans le coffre d' une banque privée à Chattogram.

Selon un reportage, un ancien policier a été brutalement massacré  devant son magasin à Chattogram. RAB a appréhendé son tueur présumé.

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé 100 toits de chaumes dans un bidonville à Banani, Dacca.

Selon un reportage, incendie dans une fonderie a brûlé sept ouvriers.

Selon un reportage, un Bangladais a été trouvé affecté par le Coronavirus. Il a été mis en quarantaine. Quelque jours plus tard, un autre Bangladais là-bas se trouve Coronavirus positive.

Selon un reportage, naufrage dans la mer de Bengale a tué 15 Rohingyas. Presque 51 restent disparus. Les secouristes ont secouru 72 personnes. Ils ont tenté de traverser la mer pour parvenir Malaisie.

Selon un reportage, deux journalistes ont été attaqués par des gens inconnus à Dacca. Ils faisaient reportage sur opération de douane.

The Woe Called Current Account Deficit

A virus called Corona
Sweeps across China.
Damage to trade cannot be seen,
People want to know what it means
For economy, commerce and culture.
So the business as usual does not rupture.
The woe called current account deficit,
Lacking enough forex receipt,
Keeps growing bigger,
For the last three years.
Exports fall short
Of meeting the gap.
Even the forex warriors fail
To bring another feather to their cap.

 Another pandemic has brought the world to a standstill. Fear looms large that it may badly hit Bangladesh economy. News reports indicate that ongoing development projects (infrastructure) will be delayed several weeks as many China-financed projects witness their workers on leave are being stranded back home. In addition, many exporters and importers are also worried about their goods from China, one of the biggest trading partners of Bangladesh. Port operations and export and import operations are also crippled by flu pandemic.However, a closer look at the external trade data for the last one decade will reveal that things are already in bad shape for our external sector.Bangladesh Bank data on Balance of Payments say that for the last three years current account has experienced deficit. More worryingly, it has been growing since 2017.

Current account deficit is not a good sign for the economy as gap in trade deficit is no longer offset by remittances. Remittances, in the past,came as a savior to help Bangladesh's dire economy. Things have changed as many traditional destinations shut its door to Bangladeshi workers. Despite the surge in remittances in last couple of months, overseas employment market may take a hit in South East Asia. The region is close to the epicenter of flu outbreak and several Bangladeshis have been identified with the symptoms of having the flu with no cure.

Source:Bangladesh Economic Review 2018, BBS Pocket Book 2012,2018,Bangladesh Bank.

The risk is there that trade and overseas employment market of Bangladesh may be badly affected by the flu outbreak.

External trade is already in trouble before flu pandemic. Balance of payments data in the period between 2010 and 2018 say that there has always been trade deficit and it has been growing for the last one decade. It only underscores the role of remittances in our external sector. However, since 2017 we have been witnessing a current account deficit and it shows no sign to dissipate soon. Rather it is growing at an alarming rate. In 2019, our current account deficit stood at $15.49 billion. Though export has been growing steadily over the last one decade, import has outperformed it.

I ran a logit model to get an idea how the export increase raises the odds of having a current account surplus, analyzing data for the  period 2010-2019. For each export earnings level, I fetched the corresponding data for GDP and current account balance. Now the probability of a positive current account balance is current account balance for the corresponding export level divided by corresponding GDP. The odds ratio,P_i/(1-P_i) in favor of a positive current account balance is the ratio of the probability that there will be a current account surplus to the probability that there will be no current account surplus. Then I took the natural log of the odds ratio to  make it linear in parameters.

Now the logit model becomes
L_i=ln(P_i/1-P_i)= b₁+b₂X_i
where X_i is export earnings in million US $.
To get rid of heteroscedasticity, I transformed the model  as follows:
sqrtw_i L_i= b₁sqrtw_i+ b₂sqrtw_iX_i+sqrtw_iu_i.

Or

L*_i=b₁sqrtw_i+ b₂X*_i+v_i
where L*_i=sqrtw_i L_i,X*_i=sqrtw_iX_i  , v_i= sqrtw_iu_i  , w_i= GDP_iP_i(1-P_i)

Then I carried out the OLS regression on the transformed equation.The model appeared to be significant (F=253.21, p=0.0000002436,df=1,8). Both the intercept,b₁sqrtw_i,(t= -14.41, p=0.0000005241) and the slope coefficient, b₂, (t= -15.912, p=0.0000002436) turned out to be significant. The slope coefficient is -0.0000644841. Taking the antilog of slope coefficient yielded 0.999935. So for a unit increase in the weighted export earnings, X_i, the weighted odds in favor of a current account surplus increase by -0.00645 percent. So analyzing given data , the odds for a current account surplus in response to an increase in export earnings are minuscule. This underscores role of remittances in current account balance. Despite the fact that exports have grown remarkably, it does not play a dominant role in lifting up the current account deficit to a surplus level. Acceleration in export earnings is expected. For that, diverse bucket of goods and new destinations are must.

These stuffs have been chewed so much that they now sound cliché. But we still depend heavily on our remittance warriors to  fill up the gaps in current account. But the last three years, as the data show, increasing current account deficit should be a cause of concern. It is in fact pushed the overall balance negative in 2018.

Bad news keeps coming from the overseas employment market. Several traditional recruiting countries impose new restrictions, limiting further prospect of recruiting more Bangladeshi workers. Recent flu pandemic will further aggravate the problem. There is little room for optimism that remittances continue to play the role of savior in future.

Similarly, no good news surfaces for country's apparel sector.EU parliament has nodded affirmatively to a free-trade agreement with Vietnam, allowing the country to export duty-free apparel items to EU countries. This augurs ill for Bangladeshi apparel sector as its apparel items will face stiff competition in that market. Instead of widening the market, Bangladesh witnesses losing of its existing ones.

Overseas employment market and apparel export jointly fill up the forex reserve of the country. Government response to address the woes prevailing in these two sectors is not adequate. This is often manifested in the inhuman suffering of the remittance warriors and lack of policy support for apparel sector. Before the current account deficit turns worse, government should mobilize efforts to avoid a catastrophic situation.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(31 janvier --- 07 février)

Selon un reportage, l'élection municipale s'est déroulée le samedi. Les électeurs ont voté à machine électronique. De moins en moins d'électeurs sont arrivés aux urnes. Les commentateurs politiques et la presse l'ont décrit une mauvaise chose pour la démocratie. Tous les maires élus appartiennent à parti au pouvoir. Le parti de l'opposition a appelé grève à Dacca en signe de protestation.

Selon un reportage, 302 Bangladais revenus depuis Chine ont été mis en quarantaine. De plus, 20 Chinois ont été aussi mis en quarantaine au sud du Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, deux journalistes ont été harcelés par fidèles d'un conseiller élu et un dirigeant du parti au pouvoir. Ils faisaient reportage au cours d'élection.

Selon un reportage, les scanners thermiques à l'aéroport de Sylhet et à l'aéroport de Chattogram ne marchent pas.

Selon un reportage, luttes intestines du parti au pouvoir se sont soldées par mort d' un fidèle à Sylhet. Deux autres ont été aussi blessés.

Selon un reportage, un ecclésiastique est parti pour Malaisie après un ministre l'a critiqué. Dans sa page de réseau social, il s'est dit qu'il y allait pour faire des recherches. Récemment, il a converti 12 hindous indiens aux Musulmans dans un rassemblement religieux. L'action a été critiquée. Police a appréhendé les 12 Indiens et les ont repoussés vers l'Inde.

Unruly Roads, Unsafe Lives

Progress ties in wheel,
That's supposed to be real.
Things have changed in this part,
It's no longer the horse before the cart.
People get stuck in the sea of cars
Have this weird feeling of behind the bars.
Here the wheel moves not to serve you sir,
But to whiten the black money in their coffer.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to move around Dhaka. Traffic jam slowly kills a vibrant city. City of lights and city of green gradually gives in to a long anaconda of standstill traffic at key roundabouts and key roads most of the day. Nowadays people fret over it less. They are getting used to this new normal. I am no exception. But last week, an hour-long traffic jam in less-than-half-a-kilometer-long road whipped up the anger inside me. Lots of people blame ongoing metro-work for Dhaka's traffic jam.  Frankly speaking, metro-work is causing less jam in Dhaka. Rather, its alternate passages better manage the vehicular movement. Lack of policing is to blame. Most of the traffic jams I got stuck were caused by events or bad police handling. Recent awful experience was no different. Hardly any police was there in those agonizing 60 minutes in that stretch of Agargaon-Farmgate road. Well, it was the final day of the trade fair but that did not mean less police on the spot.

I looked around in that sardin-packed bus and watched how people got stuck in a sea of vehicles around me.No one would believe that a bus-ride from Agargaon to Farmgate took 1-hour. I was befuddled to notice that other side of the road leading to Farmgate at Bangabandhu Conference Center crossing was completely empty and there was no police at the crossing.

Like traffic jams, Dhaka roads also witness frequent accidents. Reckless driving coupled with lack of policing make Dhaka roads hell for commuters.

Last year I had witnessed one such accident that I narrowly escaped. My bus was boarding passengers while an empty bus intentionally hit the rear side of the bus. That was where I sat. In the blink of an eye, it smashed the back of the bus. It took few seconds to befuddled passengers to understand what was going on. I got off and took few snaps of the assailant bus on my mobile phone. Two days later I went to the police station where seized bus was parked outside.

I filed a general diary and tried to know the identity of the owner. To my surprise, I came to learn that there were many owners of that bus company. Maybe 400 or 500. Even a single bus is owned by several people, as disclosed by the claimed owner of the bus. The transport businesses is all about to mainstream or whiten the undocumented money. The accident took place the very next day of the brutal murder of a BUET student. Two-month after I had lodged the diary, the bus was no longer before the police station. Maybe they released the bus.

As the number of vehicle plying over the road increases, so does the number of accident. Addition of new car and bus will not stop. Similarly, new asphalt roads are also being stretched out. But how can we reduce the incidence of growing number of accidents? Reducing the number of vehicle is not a pragmatic solution. Better traffic management and responsible driving could be the possible solution.

Source:BBS pocket book 2018,2016,2012, BER2018,BUET, leading dailies

I recently delved into Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Pocket Book 2018, BBS pocket book 2016, BBS pocket book 2012, Bangladesh Economic Review 2018 and some leading dailies to gather data on casualty and registered vehicles between 2009 and 2018. Data on casualty from 2015 to 2018 gleaned mostly from leading dailies. Maybe that is the number of casualty is unusually high in this period. Meanwhile, data prior to 2015 and registered vehicles were collected from BBS pocket book , BER and Accident Research Institute,BUET. Unofficial figures may vary from official ones.

Despite the official-unofficial difference, there is no gainsaying that there has been a surge in accident between 2015 and 2018. This post does not intend to probe underlying reasons for the sudden rise in accidents. Rather it tries to underscore the gravity of the problem.

I transformed the two into natural log variables and then ran a regression between ln_casualty and ln_registered_vehicle. Since the data is time series in nature, I checked for serial correlation in the disturbance term. Luckily Durbin-Watson statistic reported no autocorrelation. (d=1.8382 prior to log natural transformation and d= 1.3638 after regression; for 10 observations and 1 explanatory variable.)

Having finished for diagnostic check, I went for analyzing the result. F-test was found to be significant(F=7.207, p= 0.027, df=1,8).Coefficient for ln_registered_vehicle turned out to be statistically significant(b₂=1.37, t=2.68, p=0.027). However, the intercept was found to be statistically insignificant (b₁=-10.948, t=-1.468, p=1.800).

From the given data, it appears that a 1% increase in registered vehicle contributes to a 1.37% increase in casualty number.

Certainly, I am not saying increasing number of vehicle provokes accident. The point is reckless driving and lack of enforcement of law aggravate the road accident problem. An array of posts could be churned out on what the traffic laws say. Since the objective is to capture the gravity of the problem, I am not treading that path and restrict my discussion on how worse it has become.

As we embrace the new normal on unruly roads--- unending traffic jam, agonizing working hours lost in roads, misfit drivers and vehicles, undocumented money whitening project, no respect for law---the truth is becoming clear that educating the driver , people is as relevant as enforcing the law. At the same time, all the corrupt practices, including the black money whitening project, should be put to an end without further ado.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(25 janvier --- 01 février)

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé 150 toits de chaumes dans une bidonville à Mirpur.
C'est la deuxième fois l'incendie a ciblé la bidonville en six mois.

Selon un autre reportage, incendie a causé assez dégâts à un train à Brahmanbaria.

Selon un reportage, une cour de Tangail a refusé la mise en liberté provisoire sous caution d'un chanteur folklorique, qui a été accusé d'avoir diffamé religion.

Selon un reportage, un vol de bureau international de migration a amené 148 Bangladais, appréhendé pour traverser la mer pour parvenir l'Europe depuis Libye.

Selon un reportage, police a appréhendé un banquier pour avoir escroqué Tk 30 millions pour jouer au casino sur internet.

Selon un reportage, police a appréhendé ancien salarié d' une boutique de vêtements pour avoir pris des photos de ses collègues pendant qu'elles s'habillaient à salle d'essai. Il leur a demandé des argents et menacé de disséminer leurs photos sur internet.

Selon un reportage, RAB a appréhendé des personnes de l'agence de voyage pour trafiquer les jeunes femmes à Dubaï où elles seraient vendu à discothèque.