Monday, January 29, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(27 janvier --- 02 février)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
27 Pain,Omelette Riz,Silver carpe,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Silver carpe,Chou,Soupe aux lentilles ---
28 Pain,Chou Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre Riz,Omelette, Soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre ---
29 Pain,Œuf poché Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou-fleur Riz gonflé
30 Pain,Omelette Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou,Ruhi Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou Riz gonflé,Tchhana(fromage artisanal),Omelette
31 Khitchury,Omelette Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou-fleur,Navet Riz,Chou-fleur,Soupe aux lentilles ---
01 Pain,Navet Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre Riz,Chou,Soupe aux lentilles Biscuit,Bakerkhani(Biscuit artisanal)
02 --- Riz,Œuf poché,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Chou,Soupe aux lentilles Biscuits

Saturday, January 27, 2024

New Tax Act And eReturn System-II


Well spelt,easy eReturn system
Could resolve govt's revenue problem.

NBR in the first six months of current fiscal year fails to attain its target. There is a revenue shortfall of Taka 232.27 billion. Income tax sector accounts for Taka 85.63 billion shortfall, the largest among other sectors. This year NBR's revenue target is Taka 4.3 trillion. But Taka 1.65 trillion have been collected so far(source: “Chhoy Mashey Rajoshho Ghatti Taka 232.27 billion”,P-12,January 26,2024,Daily Prothom Alo).

High inflation, limited work opportunities limit the ways to increase income tax revenue from domestic sources. Bangladeshis working abroad can pay taxes through Bangladeshi embassies in respective countries. If NBR can recruit third party or exchange houses then more Bangladeshis working abroad can feel encouraged to pay taxes. Spending on Probashi bond ,pension scheme and incentives on remittances could at least be covered by increased revenue collection.

Another thing I noticed is that uniform 10% source tax on bank deposits. Imagine a widow /mother whose relatives work abroad and send money to this lady’s account to run the family expenditure at home. If the amount of the sent money does not cross a threshold limit, then source tax on bank deposits should be lower than 10% or zero. Similarly, a person who opened a bank account when he was employed but now becomes unemployed should not pay 10% source tax on bank deposits. Because money he has on the balance is to cover his future expenses. If the balance does not cross a certain limit he should not pay taxes. Balance during the period of unemployment (before he/she lands into other income earning opportunity ,which will be reflected in the KYC form) should not be considered as taxable income.Our government does not provide any unemployment incentives. This 10% waiver on bank deposits of the unemployed should be considered as incentives.

I also find it objectionable to consider compensation receipt instead of wages/salary as taxable income under the section salary income . Imagine an individual who received a lump sum amount after completing a contract but does not land into another income earning opportunity. Till this money is not invested into new business or share market,it should not be considered as taxable income.

There should be clear distinction between cooperatives from the town and cooperatives from rural area. Why? Cooperative earning from agri business is not taxable. In the towns, the cooperatives we see are operated by vested quarters. In the municipality areas, petty businesses regularly pay ‘unofficial taxes' to vested quarters. And often ‘territorial army' takes control of the area the business activities take place. Often these small and micro businesses rely on these unsafe cooperatives. Many fraudulent cooperatives swindled money from people and ran away. So earnings of cooperatives from the municipalities and city corporation should be taxed.

Deductions in business income include spending on research and development and marketing and promotional activities. Many business houses have their own marketing and research department. Many houses also operate banks and other ventures with whom PR firms do business. So at the end of the day, spending on these sectors are not true spending as the business houses retain part of the spending through other ventures. Spending on promotion of new product should not be taxed but spending on promotion of existing product that secures a market share should be taxed.

NBR's income tax guide 2023 is very handy in preparing returns. By adding more examples and illustrations, it can be made a complete guide to understanding tax returns. NBR's database and tax offices are its true sources of data. Incomplete and flawed returns can be picked up and used as template on its websites to educate the taxpayers. An informative website and well illustrated income tax guide could make the task easy for the taxpayers.

Back in October last year,I penned this piece titled “New Tax Act And eReturn System” where I discussed some features and shared my experiences with the eReturn system. Sharing it again:

Bangladesh has introduced new Income Tax Act(2023) this year. As online tax return submission---scheduled to be ended in November 30 or extended to December –has started, I leafed through the new income tax act. There is some interesting discovery for me. But first, let’s start with the experience I have with the online e-Return system.

The introduction of the system witnessed record number of people come under tax net in the last couple of years. It is a commendable job as NBR managed to complete /install the online system after a Vietnamese company left in the middle of the job. I submitted my zero tax return, but there are some issues that I cannot help raising:

1. The online return system is in English. If it were in Bangla, a large number of Bangladeshis would feel encouraged to use it. Compared to print version, online return system is elaborated and thoroughly explained.

2. This year NBR introduced Single page return for those with income less than taka 500,000 or wealth less than taka 40,00,000. Single page return still needs lots of clarification. For instance, total assets, expenditure, net wealth, source of income needs to be defined for TIN holders submitting their 2nd or 3rd return. Like detail return,explanation could be introduced here.

3. Current set up of the online system does not allow uploading of scanned copies of documents. Addressing the issue will encourage more people to use the system.

4. Using the system with smartphone is still difficult. It is hard to save documents on mobile phone.

5. Respective data field under expenditure, asset etc sections should be flexible and incorporate options to upload required documents.

The good thing about the new tax act is that it allows eReturn submission, zero tax on SMEs operated by women,zero tax on economic activities of indigenous people in CHT, tax waiver on startups.

However, what I found interesting is that no tax on religious charities or Bangla-medium educational institutions. Governance in these institutions is very weak. On top of that governing body constitutes of stakeholders from different creed who do not perform as per the wishes of students and parents. Making them tax free only complicates/enhances the decaying situation. Many undertake various construction/development works using the institution fund, furnishing no explanation whatsoever on how the money was spent. Imposing tax will improve the situation.

NBR allows tax exemption for startups that incur loss during growth years. In the finance act, we see investment of opaque capital is allowed in ICT sector like the real-estate. However, dismal conditions of e-commerce industry and recent closure of PaperFly does not offer much room for optimism. Meanwhile, SMEs which have to pay interest on average around 20% and are doing well in the face of odds. In terms of value addition, SMEs add more values than the ICT but do not get much attention from the NBR. Some reports say $1 billion of the previous fiscal year went missing from our export earnings. This year $7/8 billion of export proceeds have not arrived yet. Economists like Rehman Sobhan fears hundiwalas might store the money to exploit the situation in future. As govt offers cash incentives to freelancers and IT firms,evil quarters may steal the money wearing IT sector’s boots and adding no value to the economy. NBR should come up with ideas how to address the issues.

Tax act is not clear about tobacco tariff. One Parliament member in the last budget session correctly pointed out that govt imposed duty on profits from tobacco goods but not on sale. Sales duty on tobacco will augment revenue, which is now falling short of IMF target. Govt did increase the duty on profits but did not lend ear to the advice.

I have also noticed that it is difficult to verify online return submission of TIN with ten-digit. Online verification of return submission should be made easy.

Some YouTubers did tremendous help to govt by launching videos on how to submit tax return. I submitted my zero tax return watching such videos. I think NBR should take the initiative to create and disseminate such educational videos to dispel any ambiguity in submitting return. Similar videos can be created to submit VAT return. NBR's job is not only to identify taxpayers but also includes educating the taxpayers. If step-by-step process in filling the tax return is spelt ,more people will be encouraged to submit tax return. In addition ,NBR could also host a frequently asked questions (FAQ) section on its website to respond to some common queries.

Making TIN registration and return submission easy, many unintended consequences could be avoided. Often some quarters open deposit scheme in the banks or purchase savings certificates using fake id. It is also reported in the news many took bank loans of astronomical sum using other people's id while keeping them in the dark. Similarly, many go abroad stealing other identities. In 2009-10,many former agency people in Bangladesh went to Britain using this mean. British home ministry unearthed the incident and it became a news item.

TIN certificate and return submission verification could easily stop these fraudulent activities. Immigration could easily detect such fake persons with such verification system. Similarly, flow of illicit capital could also be checked. The more easy and user friendly our tax return system becomes, the more benefits the govt will reap from it.

Monday, January 22, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(19 janvier --- 26 janvier)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
20 Pain,Chou Riz,Chou-fleur,Navet,Haricots français Riz,Chou-fleur,Navet,Haricots français Lait,Patate douce
21 Pain,Omelette Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Navet Riz,Chou
22 Patate douce Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou,Chou-fleur,Navet Riz,Pakora,Soupe aux lentilles ---
23 Pain,Omelette Riz,Haricots français,Chou-fleur Riz,Haricots français, Papaye Paneer parata(Parata à fromage)
24 Pain,Papaye Riz,Pomme de terre,Épinard,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Tête de chèvre dans soupe aux pois blancs ---
25 Pain,Œuf poché, Tête de chèvre dans soupe aux pois blancs Riz, Tête de chèvre dans soupe aux pois blancs Riz,Tête de chèvre dans soupe aux pois blancs ---
26 Riz gonflé,Tchhana(Fromage artisanal) Riz,Koï poisson, Brocoli, Chou-fleur, Pomme de terre Riz,Koï poisson, Brocoli, Chou-fleur, Pomme de terre Singara(Friture populaire)

Friday, January 19, 2024

MPS: Uncertainties Remain


Bangladesh Bank has unveiled second Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) to fight inflation. The MPS aims to bring down inflation to 7.5% at the end of FY 24 while anticipating a GDP growth rate of 6.5%. Government claims inflation slightly eased to 9.41% in December ’23 from 9.48% in November ’23. However, rice market shows a steady rise in prices. Meat market particularly beef experiences increase in prices after failure of concerted efforts to bring it down to Taka 600/kilo. In general, food inflation has not lowered to a tolerable level yet. Lowering of non-food inflation, caused by regulated imports, contributed to the slight improvement in inflation.

Bangladesh Bank recorded that consumer credit growth fell and became around 15% in 2023 than 27% in 2022. That means a fall in demand is likely to improve the inflationary situation in the future.

Crucial thing is Bangladesh Bank raised the policy rate by 0.25% ,making it 8% from 7.75%. The raise is small. I think after looking at the January inflation data it may raise the repo rate further. It lowered the standing lending facility (SLF)rate by 0.25%,making it 9.50%, and raised standing deposit facility (SDF) rate to 6%. Lowering of SLF rate indicates that the need for banks for emergency resort to the central bank will not wither away soon. That means liquidity crisis of the banks may persist in the remaining half of this fiscal year.

Bangladesh Bank also introduces exchange rate band corridor system, known as crawling peg, as a step before fully moving to floating exchange rate system . However, the difference between the official and unofficial rate is still more than Taka 10 and some economists remain skeptic about its effectiveness.

Bangladesh Bank projects that private sector credit growth will be 10% ,lower than 11% projected earlier. Public sector credit growth also lowered to 27.8% from 31%. This is in line with the measures to curtail money flow.

Bangladesh Bank governor remains optimistic about overcoming problems related to political uncertainties. He is optimistic that multilateral donors and investors will go ahead with their plans and pledged money will continue to come. Political uncertainties are still there as thousands are still in prison and no reconciliation has been reached between the two major parties. European Union Election monitoring team is still in the town and prepare their report ,which will decide future course of its relations with Dhaka. European Union head in Bangladesh while talking to journalists made it clear that EU will work with Bangladesh based on this report. Last week factories in Dhaka and Chattogram EPZs witnessed forced closures as crestfallen workers are not happy with the new wages. Not only that economist Rehman Sobhan compelled to pen an opinion piece in defense of Nobel Laureate Professor Yunus, sentenced to six months imprisonment by labor court in a so called violation of labor right, calling the whole trial decaying governance and biased. He fears similar oppressive moves against independent and objective voices. US sanctions still loom large after the one-sided election. In addition, a survey by World Economic Forum reveals that 87% economists think there will be uncertainties in the coming months. Insurance premium for container vessels has gone up after several ships came under attack in the red sea. Our RMG export to EU relies on this route. It is too early to tell confidently that governance is improved and uncertainties are gone.

I anticipated a big raise like the previous 0.75% in policy rate. Anyway in future months we may see more raises if inflation is not tamed. Containing food inflation should be the main focus right now.

Sunday, January 14, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(12 janvier --- 19 janvier)

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MPS raises policy rate again,
Despite optimism, uncertainties remain.

Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
13 Pain,Chou,Omelette Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Navet Riz,Ruhi,Chou-fleur Riz gonflé,Mélasse
14 Pain,Lait --- Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Œuf dur,Chou-fleur ---
15 Pain,Lait Riz,Œuf dur,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Chou-fleur Riz,Chou-fleur,Pomme de terre,Œuf dur ---
16 --- Riz,Chou-fleur,Pomme de terre Riz,Purée de pomme de terre et œuf dur Pain,Lait
17 Pain,Lait Riz,Mudskipper, Soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre Riz,Mudskipper, Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles ---
18 Pain,Papaye Riz,Poulet,Papaye Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles Lait,Gâteaux locaux
19 Riz gonflé, Poulet Riz,Papaye,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles Lait

Friday, January 12, 2024

Economic Reforms: Morning Shows The Day


Bonds as a mean to clear subsidy debt
Maybe not a resource and may cost the govt great.

Everyone anticipated that government might show some commitment to economic reforms at the start of new year. Having bagged the second tranche of IMF credit pack, this anticipation was gaining some grounds. However, some news reports hint it demonstrated weak commitment to reforms the economy badly needed.

Bangladesh Bank in its website announced that it extended relaxation of internal credit risk rating score of bank clients. The credit risk rating score distinguishes between a good client and a troublesome one. Client who fails to get a threshold score is identified as ineligible to avail loan. During the pandemic, this credit risk rating score was relaxed and the chance was extended several times. This extension allows defaulters and bad clients to seek further loan till December 31,2024. Over the years we witnessed how incidents of loan scam increased and non performing loan cast a shadow over the stability of the economy. This decision has the potential to further worsen the prevailing situation.

Another news divulged that government planned to issue bond to pay due Taka 260 billion to the banks and other organizations ,which lent the money as subsidy to fertilizer and electricity. Of this amount ,electricity accounts for Taka 140 billion and gas accounts for Taka 120 billion(Source : “Government Set To Issue Bonds To Pay Off Bank Debts Against Power Subsidies Today”,Abul Kashem,The Business Standard, January 04,2024, for more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/government-set-issue-bonds-pay-bank-debts-against-power-subsidies-today-769082) . Government already issued bonds for paying the gas subsidy spending it took from the banks. It plans to float further bonds to pay off the electricity subsidy loan after formation of the new government. Banks are happy in this arrangement as they may receive regular interest payments from the government till the bond matures. But every year govt has to pay further money to the banks as interest payments. At a rate between 7% and 8%, govt has to pay between Taka 18.20 billion and Taka 20.80 billion as interest payments. At first glance, this bond arrangement appears to be a resource creation. But the banks did not ask for the bonds or show any interest for them. Rather,the government pushed the bonds to the banks. The demand was artificially created. Now every year govt has to print further Taka 20 billion to pay the interest of the bonds. The crucial thing is that whether the banks will be able to give this money to the private sector. IMF review report disclosed that private sector credit growth did not reach the pre-pandemic level. And government remains the largest recipient of bank credit. The new government is likely to raise the prices of utilities and policy rate further. Though challenging, a vibrant private sector could overcome them. But the question is who dominates the private sector. Just a month ago we witnessed how some groups swindled money from Export Assistance Fund created by Bangladesh Bank. Moreover, one-sided election set the ground for further capital flight and US Visa and trade restrictions. Against this backdrop, it is naïve to assume that banks will make good use of this interest money. Rather,they will find it convenient to lend the money again to the government which never defaults to repay. Govt has a huge debt service liability. Despite commitment to cut spending, it has to rely on the banks to finance deficits. The action of issuing bonds is still tantamount to printing money as the demand is not market generated. The point is government has to print less money every year instead of a huge amount of money just once. Silver lining is that two/three/five years later things will improve so much that it will compensate the payments on bonds and interests. But the cost is it has to inject more money into the economy over the bond's entire life( Taka 260 billion + interest).

I think instead of bond government should go for the Petrobangla due. Internal audit report said Petrobangla earned huge money by maintaining accounts with several banks while keeping the NBR in the dark. Petrobangla owes Taka 220 billion to NBR as tax payments. This Taka alone covers the revenue shortfall in the first two quarters of this fiscal year. I think NBR should install some mechanism within Petrobangla and Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) to get the tax money in real time. VAT and other duties from daily transaction will end up in NBR coffer daily. It is more pragmatic right now than going after petty businesses who are struggling now.

This latest decision of bond issue unravels the funding crisis of the government. Despite the claim of resource creation, the decision has the risk of increasing public debt, curtailing credit to private sector and worsening the inflation.

Saturday, January 6, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(05 janvier --- 12 janvier)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
06 Pain,Mélasse,Omelette Riz,Chou-fleur,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux haricots vigna mungo Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Purée de pomme de terre,Chou-fleur Pain
07 Gâteau traditionnel Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Pomme de terre,Poisson chèvre Riz,Chou-fleur, Soupe aux lentilles, Pomme de terre Pain,Œuf poché
08 Riz gonflé,Gâteau traditionnel,Mélasse Riz,Haricots français avec sec ruban poisson Riz,Haricots français avec sec ruban poisson ---
09 Pain,Chou-fleur Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Brocoli,Feuilles d'Amarante éléphant, Poisson guillemet à tête de serpent Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Brocoli,Poisson guillemet à tête de serpent ---
10 Pain,Mélasse Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles, Feuilles de gourde calebasse Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles, Feuilles de gourde calebasse Cacahuètes
11 Pain,Patate douce,Mélasse Riz,Épinard,Poulet Riz,Poulet, Chou Cacahouètes, Riz gonflé, Mélasse
12 Pain,Chou Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles Riz poulet Riz gonflé,Mélasse

Friday, January 5, 2024

HIES 2022: Truth Behind The Progress

HIES 2022: Truth Behind The Progress

Overall decline in poverty
Completely opposes ground reality.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) published full report of Household Income And Expenditure Survey(HIES) 2022 in the last week of December. The report claimed at the national level poverty declined by 7.8 %. In 2016,it was 24.3% and it became 18.7%.But incidence of poverty increased conspicuously in Dhaka (rose to 17.9% from 16% in 2022)and Sylhet divisions and slightly in Barishal division. Growing incidence of poverty was observed among both the urban and rural households in Dhaka division. Extreme poverty declined all across the country( became 5.6% from 12.9% in 2016).Rising incidence of poverty in Dhaka hints that social security programs are not functioning well. Poverty among rural households in Dhaka division also increased remarkably. Perhaps, there are less income earning opportunities in the surrounding villages of Dhaka and/ rising price levels worsened their situation.

Households’ income also increased remarkably. Professional wages and salary registered decline while business and commerce registered an increase as sources of income.More and more people engaged in informal sector and self earning opportunities.

Their spending on food and non-food items declined.However, average food intake by households increased(from 975.5 grams in 2016 it became 1129.8 grams in 2022).Consumption of carbohydrates and proteins like milk, fish and egg registered a decline. What is interesting consumption of meat increased while we witnessed how high prices of beef and poultry forced households to rely on egg in the last one year. In the wake of high inflation ,this increase in meat consumption is not realistic. This data on protein intake is already under scanner.

Social security programs widened and more households subscribed to such programs(37.6% in 2022 and 27.8% in 2016). Yet we saw how urban poverty got worsened. 21.11% of the population starved a whole day in a year or ran out of food. This measurement of food insecurity introduced for the first time in HIES.Gastric ulcer emerged as the key health sufferings endured by the households during the last 12 months. In addition, more and more people in rural areas reported to be suffered from respiratory complications. Non-qualified doctors at the pharmacy provided the households treatment when they got sick.

Income inequality got worsened. In 2016,Gini coefficient was 0.482 at the national level. It became 0.499. Income inequality improved in the rural areas and it worsened in the urban areas( 0.539 in 2022 and 0.498 in 2016).

There is a lot of debate about this latest HIES. The percentage decline in professional wages and salary as source of income is clear indication that job opportunities in formal sector shrinked.Did income inequality wane in the rural areas? Did social security programs really reach to the poor? Rising incidence of poverty in the urban areas gives a whole different picture that challenges the claim of overall reduction in poverty. If income of Bangladeshis increased and more households opened bank accounts, then why are most of the banks facing liquidity crisis? World Bank in a report on food security put Bangladesh in red zone where countries experience 5-30% inflation are kept. It is hard to grasp that amid 12.6% food inflation Bangladeshis raised their meat consumption. HIES accidentally laid bare the cost of unplanned development: waterlogging became a major source of disasters sustained by most of the maujas.

In general, the timing of full publication of HIES 2022 coincided with the election. Taking credit of reducing extreme poverty may prompt the government to pick up this time of the year to publish it. Yet, some data do not validate the true picture at the ground.

Monday, January 1, 2024

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(30 décembre --- 05 janvier)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
30 Riz gonlfé,Lait Riz,chou-fleur,Tête de chèvrechèvre dans soupe aux pois blanc Riz,Tête de chèvre dans soupe aux pois blanc ---
31 Pain,Chou-fleur,Lait Riz,Tête de chèvre dans soupe aux pois blanc Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Omelette,Tête de chèvre dans soupe aux pois blanc ---
01 Riz,Omelette Riz,Pabda poisson,Poisson Ruban sec dans haricots français Riz,Pabda poisson, Poisson Ruban sec dans haricots français Lait
02 Riz gonflé,Lait Riz,Soupe aux vigna mungo,Poisson Batasio Riz,Soupe aux vigna mungo,Omelette ---
03 Pain,Chou Riz,Ruhi,Chou-fleur,Navet Riz,Ruhi,Chou-fleur,Navet Lait
04 Pain,Œuf poché,Chou-fleur Riz,Navet,Ruhi,Épinard Riz,Soupe aux lentilles Lait
05 Patate douce Riz,Chou-fleur,Omelette Riz,Chou-fleur Riz gonflé,Tchanathur