La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(19 avril --- 26 avril)

Selon un reportage, une explosion mystérieuse dans un logement d'ouvrier de la confection a laissé 3 ouvriers morts à Rupganj, Narayanganj. Une fuite de gaz a provoqué l'explosion.

Selon un reportage, Police a arrêté un dirigeant du parti pour avoir joué un rôle dans la tuerie de Nusrat. Quand la mère de Nusrat est allé au parquet de Feni pour déposer plainte contre le dirigeant de séminaire religieux, le magistrat l'a découragée et l'a mise en garde des conséquences inattendues.

Selon un reportage, un youtubeur bangladais qui habite en Autriche a été accusé d'avoir diffamé la religion. Dans sa chaîne de Youtube, il a mis le feu dans les feuilles d'un livre d'Urdu en signe de protestation contre la tuerie de Nuseat. Des gens l'ont trompé. Des Bangladais ont porté plainte contre lui à Bangladesh Cyber Crime Tribunal. Dans Facebook, une nouvelle est devenue virale que la police autrichienne l'a arrêté .

Selon un reportage,à Brahmanbaria, un dirigeant du parti en exercice a été accusé d'avoir coupé les jambes d'une personne et tranché veines de jambes de son fils.

Selon un reportage, les attentats au Sri Lanka , tué 321 personnes et blessé environ 500, ont aussi ciblé Bangladesh. Un enfant a été tué et son père a été sévèrement blessé. Ils sont petit-fils et beau-fils d'un dirigeant supérieur du parti en exercice et proches de Premier ministre de Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, un tisserand de Benarasi Sari a péri trois ans de vie dans la prison. Police a falsifié son identité et l'a accusé d'être un baron de drogue. Le baron de drogue réel habite à Mohammadpur et le victime habite à Mirpur-11. Néanmoins, le baron de drogue et son frère dans une interview accordée à une chaîne privée se sont dits que le tisserand était innocent.

Selon un reportage , ancien président et chef d'un parti a peur que des gens escroquent une signature à lui et s'emparent de ses propriétés. A ce propos, il a déposé plainte dans une gendarmerie.

Selon un reportage, deux propriétaires bangladais de magasin en Afrique du Sud ont été tués par balles par des gens inconnus. Récemment, de plus en plus de Bangladais y ont été ciblés.

Selon un reportage, une camionnette a percuté une moto de service véhicule-partage Uber en tuant une étudiante de BRAC University. Police a arrêté le conducteur de camionnette.

Stick To Bilateral Agreement

Two months away from the rainy season, relocation of part of the camp-dwelling Rohingyas looms in uncertainties. Earlier government planned to relocate some of the Rohingyas to Bhashan Char. However, it flinched on that as many Rohingyas are not ready to move there.

Elliptical relocation plan is still gaining momentum. But some crucial aspects are still missing. For instance, it is not interpolated in the original plan how the education of Rohingya children will happen in Bhashan Char and how to ensure free movement between the camps in Bhashan Char and those in Cox's Bazaar.

Obviously government has plan to carry forward projects on educating the Rohingyas. But observers like me do not see any educational infrastructure in Bhashan Char. If the cyclone shelters are meant for this purpose then government should divulge the matter to the public. Who will teach the Rohingyas in Bhashan Char? Does government have plan for that?

I think Bangladesh may goad on Myanmar to send some teachers so that the Rohingya children can get education in Burmese language. No matter on which sides of the border they will reside educated Rohingyas will be true asset for both the countries.

The accommodation in that area is for the Rohongyas. Camp area is environed by embankments to prevent high tides. No other infrastructure is spotted that could indicate humanitarian and aid organizations could stay there to continue their operations. Even outside teachers need to travel to and fro between Bhashan Char and other parts of Chattogram once a week.

So this free movement of goods and people needs to be addresses in the Bhasan Char Relocation plan. It is not clear what transportation system is going to be introduced there. Traditional sea truck, engine boats and vessels operated by Bangladesh Navy could be good options. Private sector never essayed the waterway to this little known shoal. I bet many donor agencies will espouse any genuine government initiative to install a transport system in this waterway.

As the uncertainties regarding the esoteric relocation plan looms large, there have been reports that Rohingyas are clearing the nearby forests for makeshift camps, causing further irritation to local population and administration. Grave concern is how long the hosting population will countenance conducts of contumacious camp dwellers.

Meanwhile, latest developments in the Rakhine State insinuate that the region is sucked into a secessionist maelstrom and both the feuding parties incurring heavy losses. This might encourage some quarters within the government to eschew the bilateral agreement it signed with the Myanmar government. It would be a mistake. I think we should stick to this plan. Oriental solution is the key to this problem. Other alternatives may prolong the crisis.

Many here loathe what the Tatmadaw did to the Rohingya population. Certainly these atrocities must not go unpunished. But there are international bodies who usually look into this kind of war crimes. Let Tatmadaw and international bodies hold the culprits accountable. But at any cost Bangladesh should not drag its feet into the internal turbulence of Myanmar. We have to keep it in mind Tatmadaw is running the country for a long period of time. It is the only monolithic organization in Myanmar that is capable of keeping the country stable. Despite several insurgencies on multiple fronts, its leverage on Myanmar and its people has not been compromised since it assumed power. Democracy is still in the embryonic stage and will not flourish without the support of Tatmadaw. And the truth is Tatmadaw is a unified organization. One can do a little research and find that number of defection is far higher in Bangladesh Armed forces than that in Tatmadaw. No mutiny has taken place in Tatmadaw in the last one decade. It is a disciplined organization, steered by a strong leadership.

This reality about Myanmar has already been understood by its neighbors who face similar problems like Banglades in dealing with Myanmar.

Recently, Bertil Linter in his report titled "The Real Driving Force Behind Myanmar's Opium Trade" , published on Asia Times, revealed that a UN agency for drugs and crimes , UNODC, did a survey on narcotics in Myanmar and found that most of the poppy cultivation took place in areas where Kachin Independence Army holds sway. KIA , however,put the blame on Tatmadaw-backed militia. What I find interesting is that none of them attacks these cash cows.

In one of my earlier post on Bangladesh's anti drug war, I put forward one interesting observation: both Bangladesh Army and KIA use Type-81 rifle as their standard issued rifle. In Bangladesh it is known as BD-08, which is being manufactured at state-run armaments production facility. KIA, a strategic ally of Arakan Army, might get the know-how from former PLA personnel. But this could be a mere coincidence. At the same time, yaba invasion from Myanmar lends credence to such suspicion. Recently, Bangladesh Army floated tender to issue new standard rifle along with BD-08. What prompted the Army to issue a new standard rifle surprised many observers.

Splintered or destabilized Myanmar is not to the best interest of Bangladesh. Imagine a worst case scenario where Myanmar has fallen into the hands of several insurgent groups. A fight for dominance will soon be ensued and Bangladesh may host another wave of refugees. In unruly Myanmar, its waters will become treacherous. Incidents of piracy may spiral up in the waters through which Bangladesh does maritime trade with rest of the world. Net result is our export and import will take a hit and inflationary pressure may make lives hard here. Clearly our policy makers and strategic thinkers are not ready for this kind of reality.

Bangladesh should take cue from Myanmar's formidable neighbors who maintain good relations with civil and military leadership in spite of being victims of demographic and drug invasion. For instance, Thailand houses millions of Myanmar refugees and fought a long drug war, worsened by Myanmar. Yet it made some kind of deal with Myanmar and significantly reduced the incidence of drug related problems. The country even awarded Myanmar's Chief of Army Staff its highest civilian award when he paid an official visit to Thailand last year.

Resisting the temptation to steps that may escalate tension, Bangladesh can replicate Myanmar neighbors' model to create a thaw in relations with it.

Reaching out to all levels of civil and military leadership in Myanmar will also set the path for resolving outstanding issues. We can invite Myanmar businessmen to invest in one of our special economic zones and allow Myanmar nationals to bank with our financial institutions. A retired Army officer who knows well how this kind of regime works in democratic transition period could be sent as High Commissioner to Myanmar to convey these messages.These initiatives will not only have profound implications for bilateral relations but for the region. By making them stakeholders of our economy, we will be able to make them understand the gravity of drug problem. Eventually they may go for dismantling the drug infrastructure along the Bangladesh border.

This idea of thawing relations may meet expostulations from certain quarters who hold animus towards Myanmar. But this one-to-one agreement with the help of oriental supports holds the key to a prosperous future for both the countries. It is indeed a good sign that we inked a deal with Myanmar to resolve the Rohingya issue. And we should stick to this plan till the end.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(12 avril --- 19 avril)

Selon un reportage, police a identifié les coupables et arrêté quelques criminels qui avaient participé dans la tuerie d'une étudiante d'école religieuse à Feni.

Selon un reportage, un étudiant de Jagannath University a été arrêté par Police. Il a été accusé d'avoir diffamé la religion dans un poste de Facebook.

Selon un reportage, les ouvriers des usines de jute ont appelé grève dans tout le pays. Quelques heures plus tard ils se sont retirés après Bangladesh Jute Mill Corporation avait donné son aval à payer les arriérés d'ici le 25 avril et mise en action de National Wage Scale-2015 d'ici le Mai 28.

Selon un reportage, un dirigeant de United Peoples Democratic Front reste disparu depuis le 9 avril.

Selon un reportage, les militants de Bangladesh Water Transport Workers' Federation a commencé une grève indéterminée depuis mardi minuit en demandant revalorisation de salaire.Les ports se voient déchargement de cargo suite à la déclaration.

Selon un reportage, Reporters Sans Frontiers est classé Bangladesh 150 dans le classement des pays sur la liberté de la presse en 2019. La position du Bangladesh a reculé 4 places que celle de l'année précédente. D'après World Press Freedom Index 2019, assaut contre journalistes par les militants du parti, fermeture des sites de quotidien numérique et appréhension de journaliste et bloggeurs ont contribué à ce classement.


Selon un reportage, une adolescente pakistanaise a été violée à Tangail. Elle est venue au Bangladesh pour visiter le village paternel. Police a appréhendé le criminel.

End Of Another Transition Period

Bangladesh has ended another transition period. It is the period that witnesses departure of a regime and assumption of power by a new one. Since the ruling party is maintaining the status quo, we do not see any change in power. To me a transition period stretches from three months prior to election to three months after the election. In that light this transition period lasted from October 2018 to March 2019.It is only comparable with the twilight or dawn when the nature tries to adapt itself to the changes.

In Bangladesh, this transition period bears a negative connotation as it is marked with violent political events and regime changes. The administration during this period behaves more freely than under any other regime, people believe. But rival political parties here have inveterate tendency not to walk along the path of reconciliation. So any proposal that involves cooperation with the rivals is often faced intransigence from feuding parties. The result is violent clashes. This time things were bit different. Cornered opposition went to poll while the main opposition leader in jail. Literally main opposition was absent from electoral campaign. So pre and post election violence did not claim that much lives. But credit should not be attributed to transitory administration. Absence of strong opposition was perhaps the reason. Just take a look at the stat on political violence. In 2001, there were 26,426 victims (killed plus injured) of political violence. In 2006, the number of victims stood at 21,639. In 2009, the number of victims was 15,810. In 2013, the turbulent election year witnessed 24,680 persons fell victim of political violence. And in 2018, this number significantly declined to 7171.(Source: Odhikar)

Victims of political violence during election year. Data credit Odhikar.

As I have said climate of fear and coercion held the opposition back from full fledged electoral campaign. So the rival parties in many constituencies did not face any head to head confrontation. However, like 2013,this transition period has also been marked by non-deployment of Army. Yet the period is not as much violent as it was in 2013.

Stat on political violence during the transition period will give some indication how well the administration played its role. For December 2018 and March 2019, I could not found any data on political violence. Two NGOs---Odhikar and Ain O Salish Kendra--- that keep records of human rights have yet to reveal them. As per the statistics of Odhikar, in October and November, there have been 390 and 472 victims of political violence. According to ASK, in January-February 2019, there have been 29 incidents of political violence resulting in 8 deaths and 371 injuries. This tally could go high if we include the victims of extrajudicial killing and enforced disappearance. And we have to keep it in mind that there has been an ongoing anti-drug war, already marred by incidents of innocent civilian killing.

Though ruling party has an overarching influence over the transition administration, transition administration could boast the figure as its success. Casualties from intra party clash left a blot on that claim.

As per the annual stat of Odhikar, there have been 281 incidents of factional clash in Awami League and 14 incidents of infighting within BNP. Intra party clashes resulted in 53 deaths and 3225 injuries for Awami League and 3 deaths and 115 injuries for BNP. My personal observation is that the figures would go up if we have taken into account undocumented incidents and extrajudicial killings. Clearly it is a proof that the transitory administration failed to reign in intra party violence.

Another striking thing I noticed in the last half of the transition period is the rising number of workers' unrest and fire incidents. While the former managed to raise the basic salary significantly, the latter caused deaths of innocent civilians and triggered suspicion among general population. Government should immediately form a judicial investigation committee to probe on the fire incidents to dispel any suspicion. Fatalities from road mishaps have also gone up in the above period. These incidents call into question smooth functioning of transitory administration.

In the past we saw that bloody tragedies struck in this period taking full advantage of the lethargic state of transitory period. The main task of this kind of administration is to pass the baton from one elected government to another. In doing so, breaking down of public order often destabilizes homeostasis of the state. This year it is a different story. Lesser number of fatalities is attributed to the absence of major political parties from electoral campaign. To ensure accountability and transparency of interim administration, further amendments could be brought to existing laws that spell out duties of this administration.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(5 avril --- 12 avril)

Selon un reportage, une étudiante a été sévèrement brûlée après des gens lui avaient mis le feu dans une école religieuse à Feni. Elle a porté plainte de viol contre le dirigeant de cette école.Elle a été succombée à ses blessures mercredi nuit. Sa mort a bouleversé le pays.

Selon un autre reportage, deux étudiantes d'une école religieuse ont été violées à Madaripur. Famille des victimes a accusé un dirigeant du parti en exercice et la police pour empêcher la famille de déposer plainte contre coupables.

Selon un reportage, un bus a percuté une moto à Khilgaon en tuant deux lycéens.

Selon un reportage, police a tué trois Rohingyas à Cox's Bazaar. Police a revendiqué qu'ils appartenaient une bande de voleurs.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a déployé la force frontière dans l'île de Saint Martins. Le gouvernement a aussi interdit de voler les drones dans le ciel de Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, deux étudiants de Rajshahi Université sont morts après avoir bu du vin à Rajshahi. Un Russe est aussi mort après avoir bu du vin à Ishwardi. Son deux collègues sont aussi tombés malade.

Selon un reportage, un bus plein des ouvriers migrants a quitté sa route et basculé dans le fossé à Kuala Lumpur, Malaisie, tuant 11 ouvriers dont 5 Bangladais.

Selon un reportage, 596 hors-la-loi et gauchistes extrémistes ont remis armes à la police à Pabna. L'autorité leur a promis de faire toutes les choses à retourner à la vie normale.

Combat Aircraft Loss And Governance

Recently I have come across a very interesting stat posted on the social media page of a defense lover group. It is about the crash record of Bangladesh Air Force since Bangladesh came into being. With one or two minor omissions it includes all the crash data of BAF. BAF suffered 90 aircrafts loss in 48 years.Suddenly the idea of finding the link between governance and crash record came to my mind. Common perception is that under "representative regime" , there would be better governance in every sector and they would run smoothly. There would be better maintenance of aircrafts, better storage facility and better training.

BAF lost 11 aircrafts in 2013-2018, a period many described as "hybrid regime".Having a closer look at the breakdown of crash incidents reveals that crashes under a "representative government" (27) surpasses that(19) under a "non-representative government".

But I hold the common perception and did a statistical analysis.
Though the result is a bit contradictory, it is interesting. The 48 years of Bangladesh is divided into 9 distinct periods. Depending on the nature of the government, the regime is dubbed as "representative" or "not representative". The representative regime, which is assigned to value 1, is assumed to come to power through free and fair poll. I did not decide the type of regime , rather its recognition by local and international bodies decided its type.

Since there are too many regime changes in the 70s, I termed 1972-80 as one distinct period. Then I counted the crash incidents took place in that period. BAF's worst moment came in 1991 when tidal wave rendered 40 fighter jets and 4 helicopters useless.Aircraft loss due to war or natural disaster however was not taken into consideration. For this reason, I ignored the 1971 trainer crash and loss of BAF 44 aircrafts in 1991 cyclone.

To test my conviction that "representative regime" has lower crash record, I ran a Poisson regression. For that, I first tried to find out the total number of combat aircrafts at BAF's disposal at the end of the respective period and proportion of crashed aircrafts to the total number of aircrafts in that period, which I called "fraction" here. Since it is difficult to get the exact number of BAF inventory, I took assistance of Wikipedia to get an approximate number of aircrafts in 2018 and then scaled down the total to glean information for earlier periods.Another thing to note is that I also took into consideration the aircrafts of Army Aviation Group but discarded the ones operated by the Navy while counting the total. Proportion of crashed aircraft to total aircrafts will give a better reading because loss of 1 aircraft from a total of 2 means a loss of 50%. Similarly, a loss of 1 aircraft from 20 means a 5% loss. Absolute number of loss could lead to misleading information. That is why I rest my trust on proportion, "the fraction" in this case.

While running the regression I dropped the observation for 1986-90, because no crash took place during that period. And exposure does not count any zero.

I first ran the regression with exposure( ) and then without the exposure( ) but including the variable that would normalize exposure.

The first run says combat aircraft crash under "representative regime" is 1.185 times larger than that of "non-representative regime". However, since it falls within the 95%confidence interval, I cannot reject the hypothesis that "representative regime" has lower crash records. The second run, without exposure, yields similar results. It is still 1.185 times larger and I cannot rule out that crash record under "representative regime" is lower. Due to the results from regression, I cannot draw a definitive conclusion between BAF aircraft crash and governance.

[Please send your comments, contested views at mrh4478@gmail.com]