Saturday, October 28, 2023

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(28 octobre --- 03 novembre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
28 Pain tchapati, Pois blanc avec tête de chèvre Riz,Pois blanc avec tête de chèvre,radis et papaye Riz,chou-fleur Pois blanc sec
29 Khichury,Omelette Khichury,Chou-fleur Riz,Ruhi Lait
30 Pain tchapati,Ruhi Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi,Papaye Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Ruhi Moglaï paratha
31 Pain tchapati,Papaye Riz,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles,Feuilles de l'amarantel'amarante de tête d'éléphant --- Lait
01 Pain tchapati,Omelette Riz,Pois chiches,Poisson chat avec queue jaune Pain tchapati,Poisson chat avec queue jaune Lait
02 Pain tchapati,Omelette Riz,Poisson chat avec queue jaune,Banane verte Pain tchapati,Ruhi avec pomme de terre ---
03 Pain tchapati,Ruhi avec pomme de terre Riz,Feuilles de radis,Ruhi,Chou-fleur avec papaye,Soupe aux lentilles Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur avec papaye,Feuilles de radis Lait,Tchutki pitha(vermicelle local)

Friday, October 27, 2023

Increase In Incentives For Remitters


Falling value of Taka against the dollar
Brings more remittances from blue collar.
Letting market fix the exchange rate
Withers away chances to speculate.

Finance Minister in a press conference stated that govt would give taka 5 for 1 USD sent by the migrant Bangladeshi workers. He almost doubled the incentives for remitters. This is indeed contrary to the contractionary monetary policy the Central Bank is pursuing right now. Earlier he also defended his 9-6(9% on lending rate and 6% on deposit rate) interest rate policy,which was widely criticized for not containing the inflation.

Despite the failure of earlier taka 2.5 /USD cash incentives, many are wondering what it will really add to the economy. What is interesting while Bank and exchange houses are lacking USD,street vendors are offering USD at a higher rate. It seems like a black market for cinema ticket! A certain quarter is making some quick bucks. Profiteering activity is in full swing amid a crisis! Back in September 15 this year,I penned a piece titled “Is MPS Working?”1. Sharing parts of it again:

During the Bakri Eid festival, a record amount of remittances come to Bangladesh. Many banks reported that. However, this Bakri Eid witnessed fewer animal sacrifices this year as cattle prices were beyond many people’s reach. Amount of Haseel(fee collected from sold animal by the makeshift market authority) was also lower. That means households did not spend all the money sent by the dear ones from abroad. They may be lying in the banks. And govt also paid cash incentives to those remittances. Are those bank accounts belong to true individuals? Trouble ridden banks have limited scope for raising their revenue. Opportunistic motive may play a role here to grab the benefits of cash incentives for remitters. Similarly, we have noticed exporters do not feel encouraged to bring the export proceeds at home. The result is huge differences between the stat produced by EPB and that by Bangladesh Bank. But they enjoyed special benefits and incentives while processing the export orders. True export earnings should be the earnings brought to home. And incentives should only be given to this amount.

We have already witnessed that USA surpassed UAE and other countries and became one of the top three remittance sources. US visa restrictions facilitated the transfers. Experts and press speculated that certain quarters took advantage of the discrepancy between the official and market rates and made a fortune out of this.

Cash incentives on remittances only aggravate the ongoing profiteering problem instead of solving it.In another piece titled “Let The Market Decide The Exchange Rate” 2back in June,I spelled out how this profiteering unfolds.Sharing parts of it again:

In addition, setting the exchange rate at multiple levels also encourage money laundering. Remember that there is unprecedented hike in policy rates in occidental countries. In particular, USA surpassed all of them. So dollar deposits earn more than other currency deposits. So investment, clandestine money flow end up in America. This partly explains 94% reduction in the deposits held by Bangladeshis in Swiss banks. When Canada,UK toughened their immigration policy ,Bangladeshi deposits in Swiss banks swelled. By not allowing Taka to depreciate further and not raising the policy rate enough,we are making it easier for the wealthy to invest in these countries. Many of our exporters and importers have partners abroad. Through them they can put their money into these foreign currency deposits or cut some sort of currency swap agreements to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity if domestic exchange rate is not favorable enough. If they see interest rate will rise in future and Taka will depreciate more, then they will prefer to bring the export proceeds later to gain more. That is why the best remedy is to trust the market and let it fix the rate. This will wither away all the speculative motive. However, the current decision of the central bank has introduced friction into market, which in the end helps the currency speculator.

Notes And References

  1. "Is MPS Working?", Rezaul Hoque,September 15,2023,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com.Here is the link : https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2023/09/is-mps-working.html?m=1
  2. " Let The Market Decide The Exchange Rate",Rezaul Hoque,June 30,2023,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com.Here is the link: https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2023/06/let-market-decide-exchange-rate.html?m=1

Saturday, October 21, 2023

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(21 octobre --- 27 octobre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
21 Pain tchapati,Papaye Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson avec pomme de terre Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Petit poisson avec pomme de terre ---
22 Pain tchapati,Omelette Riz,Pois blanc avec tête de chèvre Riz,Pois blanc avec tête de chèvre Lait
23 Pain tchapati,Pois blanc avec tête de chèvre Riz,Épinard d'eau,Pois blanc avec tête de chèvre Riz,Pois blanc avec tête de chèvre ---
24 Pain tchapati,Omelette Riz,Ruhi avec pomme de terre,Papaye-Banane verte-Citrouilles --- Lait
25 Pain tchapati,Papaye-Banane verte-Citrouilles,Omelette Riz,Hilsa,Banane verte Riz,Hilsa,Pomme de terre ---
26 Pain tchapati,Omelette Riz,Poulet avec pomme de terre Riz,Poulet avec pomme de terre Lait
27 Riz,Gourde calebasse, Omelette, Hilsa Riz,Papaye-Pomme de terre,Loche guntéa Tête de chèvre dans pois blanc,Riz,Papaye-Pomme de terre,Loche guntéa ---

Friday, October 20, 2023

New Tax Act And eReturn System


Well spelt,easy eReturn system
Could resolve govt's revenue problem.

Bangladesh has introduced new Income Tax Act(2023) this year. As online tax return submission---scheduled to be ended in November 30 or extended to December –has started, I leafed through the new income tax act. There is some interesting discovery for me. But first, let’s start with the experience I have with the online e-Return system.

The introduction of the system witnessed record number of people come under tax net in the last couple of years. It is a commendable job as NBR managed to complete /install the online system after a Vietnamese company left in the middle of the job. I submitted my zero tax return, but there are some issues that I cannot help raising:

1. The online return system is in English. If it were in Bangla, a large number of Bangladeshis would feel encouraged to use it. Compared to print version, online return system is elaborated and thoroughly explained.

2. This year NBR introduced Single page return for those with income less than taka 500,000 or wealth less than taka 40,00,000. Single page return still needs lots of clarification. For instance, total assets,expenditure, net wealth,source of income needs to be defined for TIN holders submitting their 2nd or 3rd return. Like detail return,explanation could be introduced here.

3. Current set up of the online system does not allow uploading of scanned copies of documents. Addressing the issue will encourage more people to use the system.

4. Using the system with smartphone is still difficult. It is hard to save documents on mobile phone.

5. Respective data field under expenditure, asset etc sections should be flexible and incorporate options to upload required documents.

The good thing about the new tax act is that it allows eReturn submission, zero tax on SMEs operated by women,zero tax on economic activities of indigenous people in CHT, tax waiver on startups.

However, what I found interesting is that no tax on religious charities or Bangla-medium educational institutions. Governance in these institutions is very weak. On top of that governing body constitutes of stakeholders from different creed who do not perform as per the wishes of students and parents. Making them tax free only complicates/enhances the decaying situation. Many undertake various construction/development works using the institution fund, furnishing no explanation whatsoever on how the money was spent. Imposing tax will improve the situation.

NBR allows tax exemption for startups that incur loss during growth years. In the finance act, we see investment of opaque capital is allowed in ICT sector like the real-estate. However, dismal conditions of e-commerce industry and recent closure of PaperFly does not offer much room for optimism. Meanwhile, SMEs which have to pay interest on average around 20% and are doing well in the face of odds. In terms of value addition, SMEs add more values than the ICT but do not get much attention from the NBR. Some reports say $1 billion of the previous fiscal year went missing from our export earnings. This year $7/8 billion of export proceeds have not arrived yet. Economists like Rehman Sobhan fears hundiwalas might store the money to exploit the situation in future. As govt offers cash incentives to freelancers and IT firms,evil quarters may steal the money wearing IT sector’s boots and adding no value to the economy. NBR should come up with ideas how to address the issues.

Tax act is not clear about tobacco tariff. One Parliament member in the last budget session correctly pointed out that govt imposed duty on profits from tobacco goods but not on sale. Sales duty on tobacco will augment revenue, which is now falling short of IMF target. Govt did increase the duty on profits but did not lend ear to the advice.

I have also noticed that it is difficult to verify online return submission of TIN with ten-digit. Online verification of return submission should be made easy.

Some YouTubers did tremendous help to govt by launching videos on how to submit tax return. I submitted my zero tax return watching such videos. I think NBR should take the initiative to create and disseminate such educational videos to dispel any ambiguity in submitting return. Similar videos can be created to submit VAT return. NBR's job is not only to identify taxpayers but also includes educating the taxpayers. If step-by-step process in filling the tax return is spelt ,more people will be encouraged to submit tax return. In addition ,NBR could also host a frequently asked questions (FAQ) section on its website to respond to some common queries.

Making TIN registration and return submission easy, many unintended consequences could be avoided. Often some quarters open deposit scheme in the banks or purchase savings certificates using fake id. It is also reported in the news many took bank loans of astronomical sum using other people's id while keeping them in the dark. Similarly, many go abroad stealing other identities. In 2009-10,many former agency people in Bangladesh went to Britain using this mean. British home ministry unearthed the incident and it became a news item.

TIN certificate and return submission verification could easily stop these fraudulent activities. Immigration could easily detect such fake persons with such verification system. Similarly, flow of illicit capital could also be checked. The more easy and user friendly our tax return system becomes, the more benefit the govt will reap from it.

Sunday, October 15, 2023

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(14 octobre --- 20 octobre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
14 Khitchuri,Poulet Riz,Gourde épineuse, Ruhi avec pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Ruhi Miel bangladaise,Goyave
15 Pain tchapati Riz,Pomme de terre,Tête de Ruhi dans soupe aux haricots mungo Riz,Soupe aux haricots mungo,Petit poisson Lait,Goyave
16 Pain tchapati,Soupe aux haricots mungo Riz,Gobie charmante,Soupe aux haricots mungo Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Gobie charmante ---
17 Bombaï toast Riz,Pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Gobie charmante ---
18 Riz,Poisson bombili,Pois blanc,Haricot vert Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Haricot vert Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Haricot vert Lait
19 Pain tchapati,Sucré Riz,Petit poisson Riz,Poisson bombili Singara,Lait
20 Paratha,Omelette Riz,Épinard malabar Riz,Épinard malabar Lait

Friday, October 13, 2023

Mystery In Kitchen Market


We are taken aback by mystery in kitchen market,
Addressing grey issues could make it perfect.

Last week Bangladesh Competition Commission(BCC) fined around taka 85 million some poultry farms, of which two are corporate farms, for influencing the prices in poultry market. The decision however makes no difference at the ground level. Prices of poultry meat and eggs are on the rise. The import of Indian egg encounters problem as importers are busy lobbying to remove 33% duties. In general, all types of vegetables register high prices. The reason put forward is that 72-hour-long rain earlier this October casts shadow over supply of vegetables. 20 or 30 years ago our link between consumer markets and agricultural area was very weak compared to the present day. Moreover, information took a long time to reach at consumer's end. And consumers are not familiar with supply-demand concepts. So consumer could not get a clear picture about the general condition of the agricultural produce. Not only that storage and preservation facilities were very limited back then. Yet unusual hike of agricultural produce was rare. And I cannot figure it out how on earth perishable items which have short span of existence could register such an unusual rise in prices. It is not even a difference of taka 4 or 5. In some cases , price increases by taka 40 or 50!

Information reach very quickly at the consumer's end. More storage facilities and seed varieties were developed to ensure year-long supply. But we see at whimsical pretext ,prices are increased by unreasonable level. Export possibility of potato prompted storage spree by certain quarter, pushing the potato prices up. As I mentioned in an earlier piece, kitchen market requires no documentation and regulatory grip is very weak in this market. In a press conference, one big poultry farmer admitted that they forced to raise the prices as they incurred extra money for customs delay in clearing poultry feed ingredient from the warehouse. So they just passed the burden to consumers.

Less documentation and rent-plus-extortion-seeking culture in local market also aggravated the matter. Money receipt, transaction through MFS or asking info about the origin of money invested at the wholesale level could drastically improve the situation. Higher prices only work as a reference point for some quarter to bring their money into the system. Flow of information is also exploited to a great extent in kitchen market. For example, it is reported that 72-hour-long rainfall caused widespread price hike in the vegetable market as vendors anticipate supply disruption. Autumn is about to start. Flash flood is very rare in this time of the year and water cannot clog vegetable plot for a very long time. On top of that, season-defying seeds make sure year-long supply of winter vegetables like cauliflower, cabbage, tomatoes etc. So there is hardly any uncertainty looming over the vegetable market. Yet we are witnessing unusual hike. But the news report of price hike and unusual rain works as a reference to raise the prices. Another example is the hike in egg prices. It has been reported that egg prices increase as there is a stalemate over duty waiver on import. But there is also a report that says that researchers found presence of nefarious ingredients in farm eggs. Earlier, we witnessed how dissemination of such research findings dropped milk sale in the market. Yet in this case egg prices remain less responsive to such news. Stakeholders controlling the market often yield news reports to raise the price level at unprecedented level. Election and local level election is knocking on the door. For them, kitchen market is a source to raise money for financing the election. I touched the issue in one of my previous pieces.

Ordinary citizens expect that Bangladesh Competition Commission intervenes more in the future. I think it is inappropriate to allow consumer good and real estate companies run media outlet or run for MP election. Because such companies will have enormous power to shape narrative to influence the prices. And being a law-maker he may engage in activities that block entry of competitors and deprive consumers availing goods at a competitive price. In real estate,NBR does not ask the origin of money invested. It allows the real-estate company to take new investment projects at ease. Now think it has a paper plant to feed its own broadsheet newspaper. Later it uses its paper production capacity to capture market share of exercise book/copy book. Its significant market share of copy book allows it to influence the price. Similarly, its news outlets shape the narrative to influence the consumer goods' prices. Now think another media conglomerate which has news outlets, publication house and digital streaming platforms. It has significant market shares in all the industries. On top of that it hosts every year award show for entertainment industry. Such influence gives it overwhelming power to influence the product prices in respective industries and shapes narrative to its end. Advertisement industry and many other industries vie for BCC intervention. BCC should intervene to curb these influences and capabilities. Unfortunately, dedicated market research organizations snooze their activities or wind up business. That is why there is some difficulty in ascertaining true market share of these companies based on market data.

Kitchen market mystery will not wither away overnight if grey areas and issues mentioned remain unaddressed. Introduction of corporate bond in financing electoral campaign, documentation, more competition and free flow of untampered information could give a sigh of relief to the consumers. For the moment, best strategy is to slash the purchase or stop purchasing. This passive resistance is the best response against anarchy.

Saturday, October 7, 2023

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux




(07 septembre --- 13 octobre)

Cliquez pour voir/cacher
Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
07 Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Omelette, Papaye-Citrouilles --- Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles Miel bangladaise
08 Moglaï paratha Riz,Ompok pabda,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Ompok pabda,Soupe aux lentilles Miel bangladaise
09 Pain tchapati,Miel bangladaise Riz,Ompok pabda --- Moglaï paratha
10 Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf dur Riz,Petit taro chinois avec sec ruban,Pomme de terre Riz gonflé,Petit taro chinois avec ruban sec ---
11 Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Œuf dur Riz,Papaye-Carotte,Soupe aux lentilles,Feuilles de tige amarante --- ---
12 Bombaï toast Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poisson bombili,Gombo Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Poisson bombili Miel bangladaise
13 --- Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles Riz,Poulet,Soupe aux lentilles,Gombo Goyave, Miel bangladaise,Riz gonflé

Thursday, October 5, 2023

Slow Alignment Costs Investment


Slow policy alignment
Only shelves investment.

Recently, the World Bank has downsized Bangladesh growth forecast. It also predicts that inflation in the next fiscal year will be hovering around 8.5%. Earlier IMF in its economic outlook said that it would take at least 2/3 years for Bangladesh to stabilize its economy.

Bangladesh Bank has already said that it has no intention to change its monetary policy before the next general election. This means easing of inflationary pressure may take some time.[However,on October 04,2023,Bangladesh Bank has raised the policy rate/repo rate by 75 basis points.*]

Meanwhile, soaring inflation dents in the pockets of lower income group and casts shadow over the investment projects outside the economic zones. If there were several raises in policy rates in one/two quarters( that I argued in a previous piece,see "Could Bangladesh Get The Second Credit Pack?" ), things might have improved one/two quarter later. Now, real interest rate is negative, meaning nominal interest rate is still below the inflation rate. Notion such as this misalignment will be addressed future—interest rate will rise further ---will hold back investors to go ahead with investment projects. Why?

Answer lies on how big investors make their decision. If you look at the discounting criteria then it is not a wise idea to implement a project when interest rate is likely to rise further. Because net present value of cash inflow decreases as interest rate increases. Moreover,cost of capital goes up further,raising the cost of doing business in the country. For FDI project or investors investing in economic zones,this may not be a big issue as they have access to cheap foreign credit/financing. But interest rate could become a factor when their local vendors try to purchase things from local market. Not only the interest rate, the rigid exchange rate may also increase their cost of doing business.

While inflation may continue to dominate interest rate, interest rate may vary in future. In such case, internal rate of return (IRR) based decision becomes untenable as interest rate varies in short period.

Tribal nature of our politics plays a conducive role in mingling business with politics. In such case, investment projects associated with ruling regime with payback period longer than 5 years will go abroad. Investment with higher cash inflows and payback period less than 5 years may see the light. Now guess what businesses will offer you high cash inflows in the face of overwhelming odds! Meanwhile, investment projects associated with opposition creed may go abroad as they may find it difficult to operate here.

Failure of MPS to contain inflation casts shadow over the economy. Interest rate policy chases the inflation at slow pace, sending wrong signal to investors. Political impasse and US Visa restrictions complicated the matter. Amid high inflation we need investment projects to create jobs and generate optimism in the economy. Yet the current policy shelves those projects at a later date or pushes them abroad.

[*Updates: this piece has been updated by me on October 06,2023 at 14:33 PM Bangladesh Standard Time. Updates include mention of Bangladesh Bank's increase of policy rate and link to the previous post.]