La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

 (19 juillet --- 26 juillet)

Selon un reportage,fausses rumeurs sur besoin de tête décapité pour un pont en cours de construction ont provoqué lynchage de neuf personnes au Bangladesh jusq’au jeudi. Le gouvernement a fermé 10 sites et 60 comptes de Facebook pour avoir dissiminé l’infox dans le cybermonde. Le lynchage d’une mère de deux enfants devant une école  et celui d’un homme sourd pendant réunion avec sa fille dans le quartier de son ancienne femme à Narayanganj ont bouleversé le pays. Le jeudi, un ouvrier d’atelier de confection a été battu à mort à Dacca.

Selon un reportage, le nombre de victime de la Dengue est parvenu 32. Les hôpitaux sont pleins de victime de Dengue.9256 victimes de Dengue se sont inscrits aux hôpitaux jusqu’en juillet dans année actuelle.

Selon un reportage, inondation est devenue pire. D’après un rapport de l’ONU, l’inondation a touché 5,3 million de personnes, a tué 71 personnes et a  fait 283.000 personnes sans-abris.

Selon un reportage, le ministre de la Santé a causé assez de polémique dans la presse en disant que les Rohingyas multiplient aussi rapide que les moustiques vecteurs de la Dengue.

Selon un reportage, le bureau de l’anti corruption a fait une forage contre bâtiments sans permis dans le camp de Biharis à Mohammadpur, Dacca. Les Biharis sont le groupe urduphone très persécuté au Bangladesh.

UNODC Report & Meth Market of Bangladesh

United Nations Office On Drugs And Crime brought out its report, “Transnational Organized Crime In Southeast Asia : Evolution, Growth and Impact”, on organized  crime and clandestine trade in Southeast Asia. The report also highlighted the methamphetamine market of Bangladesh.  As per UNODC, the illicit methamphetamine market is worth between $30.3 billion to $ 61.4 billion.

For ease of comprehension, I use the term "meth" to indicate both forms of methamphetamine-- yaba and crystal methamphetamine---in this post.  Though not being part of this region, meth market of Bangladesh is estimated to be $5.5 billion. UN made this estimation based on the number of drug users and average consumption of drug by an user.

Most worrying matter is 12 countries of South East Asia reported meth as their "primary drug of concern".  Meth is widely marketed in rich countries like China, Japan,Singapore, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.Since Chinese authority clamps down on illicit meth trade and destroys meth lab facilities across the country, meth manufacturers find sanctuary in neighboring countries and particularly in Myanmar and set up meth labs across Myanmar. Northern Rakhine, a conflict zone, has witnessed a surge in meth production facility in recent years.

Key findings of this report are:

1. Southeast Asian countries seized  highest amount of meth (all kinds) in 2018 , which is also the highest seizure in the last 5 years and it was estimated to be 120 MT.
2. Organized criminal groups frequently use the unregulated casinos to launder and whiten drug money. As China took a tougher stance on this kind of casinos, owners shifted their operations in  Cambodia, Myanmar and Philippines.  In Cambodia around 100 casinos were set up in the last five years.
3. Ingredients of meth, or "precursor drugs", and lab equipment are being smuggled or exported to Myanmar from neighboring countries like China, India, Laos, Thailand and Bangladesh. Organized crime groups often used the legal businesses to smuggle the ingredients. 
4. Organized criminals groups widely use the courier service and e-commerce  to market crystal meth in countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. in addition, tea packages are increasingly being used to distribute crystal meth in these countries.
5. Land for opium cultivation inside Myanmar is declining. Shan and Kachin state are the regions where this cultivation takes place. Currently, 9% of the opium land lies in Kachin State However no change of poppy harvest has been reported in  Kachin state. It is important to note that Kachin separatists have alliance with rebel group of Rakhine. Recently, meth factories have scattered across North Rakhine.

UNODC estimates shows that size of Bangladesh meth market stands at $5.5 billion, as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile in China the meth market is estimated to be $10.3 billion and in Australia and New Zealand it is estimated to be $11.1 billion. Despite being a small economy, Bangladesh meth market is less than half  the size of China's market and half the size of combined Australia and New Zealand's market. A better comparison will be found if meth market is compared with GDP, export and import. I did this comparison. According to my estimates, meth market of Bangladesh is 1.75 % of Bangladesh's GDP, 13.41 percent of export and 11.95 percent of import.But in China it is 0.072% of its GDP , in Australia and New Zealand it is 0.65 % of combined GDP, in ASEAN it is 0.85% of the GDP and  in South Korea and Japan it is  0.13 % of combined GDP.

(Data Source: UNODC, Wikipedia,ASEAN)

Now I would like to put forward some of my observations:


1. Role of unregulated casinos has been highlighted in this report. Part of  the hacked reserve money of Bangladesh Bank melted in one such casino,where Macau based operators had strong footprints, in Philippines. In recent years, law enforcement agencies detained huge quantities of narcotics and gold. It is highly likely that smuggling groups hurt by such seizure might involve in Bangladesh Bank reserve money hacking.

2. The report disclosed that meth making equipment and  ingredients like ephedrine, pseudo-ephedrine, 1-phenyl-2-propanone, phenylacetic acid, 2-bromo-1-phenyl-1-propanone and thionyl chloride were smuggled to Myanmar from neighboring countries like China, Cambodia, Thailand, India and Bangladesh.

It is worthwhile to mention that local customs, based on a tip off from UK,  seized liquid cocaine mixed with sunflower oil at Chattogram. After the UNODC report it is crystal clear that this kind of illicit consignment is transited through Bangladesh. It is also an inkling that transnational organized crime group have strong presence in this country. In addition to ingredients, movement of meth processing savvy experts were also detected. For instance , Malaysian authority detained two Taiwanese for being "roving chemist" of meth lab.

3. In that report United Nations also observed that wide spread corruption among public officials played a key role in human trafficking in this region. There is no iota of lie in it in the case of Bangladesh. In Thailand, a serving Thai General was sent to prison for human trafficking charges. However, no high profile detention has been made in Bangladesh in connection with human trafficking.

4. Another kind of amphetamine is captagon, which is high in demand in Middle East. It sells between $5 and $20 apiece there. An investigative news report divulged that it is a money making machine for armed groups and ISIS in Syria. Its size and price draw attention of such groups. It cannot be ruled out that such terror outfit is operating such illicit trade in this part of the world.

ISIS purported acts of terror in Bangladesh , Sri Lanka and Philippines. Philippines and Bangladesh witness surge in meth user and trade. Highest seizure of heroine in the history of Sri Lanka was originated from Bangladesh.


After this UN report, it is pretty evident that meth has enveloped Bangladesh. Free season of human and drug traffickers in this country is attributed to the nonchalance stance of our influential quarter.  Money laundering and smuggling of meth ingredients from Bangladesh insinuate that this kind of illicit commerce has been  going on in disguise of legal  external trade  for a long time. Unless Bangladesh takes stern and rapid steps to address this issue, neighbors like ASEAN countries may play deaf to its pleas on resolving more serious issue.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(13 juillet --- 20 juillet)

Selon un reportage, Dengue a causé mort de 11 personnes à Dhaka. A samedi, 152 victimes de Dengue ont été hospitalisés.

Selon un reportage, glissement de terrain , issu des pluies torrentielles, a tué 2 personnes et blessé 3 autre à Chattogram et à Rangamati. Selon un autre reportage, 500 écoles ont été fermées à Sunamganj à cause de l’inondation. Selon un autre reportage de Frontier Myanmar, pluies torrentielles ont tué 10 Rohingyas et ravagé 5000 toits en chaume dans les camps de Rohingya au Bangladesh.

Selon un reportage, un train a percurté un bus en transportants l’entourage des jeunes mariés et tué 11 passagers dont les jeunes mariés.

Selon un reportage, un soldat de la force élite a été appréhendé par Police pour avoir tué son neuve afin de s’emparer de terrain.

Selon un reportage , un effondrement d’un bâtiment à Sadarghat a tué 1 personne.

Selon un reportage un bureau de garde-manger a trouvé le plomb dans les produits laitiers de 10 sociétés agroalimentaires.

Selon un reportage, l’ONU dans un rapport s’est dit que la commerce d’amphétamine dans le pays de l’asie sud-est vaut presque $61,4 milliards.

Regulate Rickshaws On Key Roads

Recently two city corporations made up their minds to curb free movement of rickshaws on Dhaka's key roads. Later Dhaka North City Corporation changed its position on restriction of rickshaws. Decision came on the wake of a day-long siege made by rickshaw pullers on key Badda-Pragati Sarani. Dhaka South City Corporation however has shown no sign to alter its position.

There is no gainsaying that there are too many rickshaws on the streets of Dhaka. And most of them are illegal.On many occasions rickshaw has been singled out for choking turning points and slowing down pace of the fast moving vehicles. Meanwhile , rickshaw has always been a source of livelihood for thousands of rural workers who throng to Dhaka everyday. According to Labor Force Survey 2017, informal sector employs 77% of urban labor force. And rickshaw pulling is one of the main informal sector professions. Back in 2014, I did a special story for an online news agency. Back then DMP imposed restriction on rickshaws on the key roads of Dhaka. Later this restriction was lifted and thousands of rickshaws inundated the streets of Dhaka, including the Manik Mia Avenue. As one industry insider revealed to me back in 2014, there were 6000 rickshaw garages and 225000 rickshaws in Dhaka and around 800000 men earned their breads by pulling rickshaw.The number might have risen significantly by now. What is interesting Dhaka City Corporation stopped issuing rickshaw license, the number is somewhere around 87,811, in the late 80s.In 2014, a valid license was sold at Tk 15000.Some owners' associations offered some kind of licenses to rickshaws. But these are not valid licenses and only good at finding a lost rickshaws in exchange of a small fee if it went missing. In 2014, a rickshaw puller has to pay Tk 100-120 for a full day shift and Tk 60-80 for half day. Right now a puller has to pay Tk80-100 for half a day. Bangladesh Institute Of Labor Studies recently conducted a study on Dhaka rickshaw pullers, titled " A Study Of Rickshaw Pullers Of Dhaka City" . In that study 58.4% of the rickshaw pullers say they took up rickshaw pulling as no other profession was available to them and it guarantees more income in less time. The study divulges that on average a rickshaw puller earns Tk 371.70 Tk per day and an average monthly income of Tk 11,151. It also finds that 91% of the pullers prefer the morning time to pull rickshaws. It is the busiest time of the day.

For my special story back in 2014,  I interviewed a rickshaw puller from Jaipurhat who told me agricultural workers of his district go back to their native villages in November and July. When they have no seasonal employment in villages, they come to Dhaka to drive rickshaws. Rickshaw numbers swell in festival seasons like Eid.

When we take a closer look at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data on average daily wage of construction laborers in Dhaka, we will notice that average daily wage of a construction helper was Tk 414 in 2018. Meanwhile, in some selected industries ( cotton, jute, matches, engineering and edible oil) of  Dhaka , average daily wage for an unskilled worker was TK 339.6 and that for skilled worker was Tk 414.4 in 2018. So this guarantee of earning on average Tk 10,170/ month( as a helper) or TK 11,151/month (as a rickshaw puller ) is drawing more and more rural workers into Dhaka. I would like to add that wages in construction sector are not paid daily and a typical rural worker has to put more blood and sweat into construction work than into rickshaw pulling. Since a rural agricultural worker can make some quick bucks in less time and less effort, rickshaw pulling is becoming increasingly popular among this type of laborers.

The study conducted by BILS also reveals that 91% of the rickshaw pullers take foods and snacks from makeshift hotels and tea stalls during their working hours.Often these makeshift eateries generate steady stream of revenues for some quarter.

Despite the fact that rickshaw pullers are not subject of any extortion activity, they somehow indirectly contribute to the rent seeking economy built by a politically blessed quarter. For instance, accommodation is needed for this large pool of rickshaw pullers who spend months after months in this city. Part or full house and rickshaw rents they provide may go to the pockets of this vested quarter. Moreover cooked food they eat may be bought from the kitchen markets that offer regular extortion to a certain quarter. So part of their daily spending is feeding the labyrinth network of rent-seekers.

Despite strong arguments in favor of rickshaws of Dhaka, unintentional contribution of Dhaka rickshaw pullers to our extortion economy makes the case of unregulated rickshaw pulling untenable. It is pretty much agreed that it is time to put an end to unregulated rickshaws on key roads of Dhaka. Policy makers should step in to make sure easy and safe accommodation for rickshaw wallahs, to tab on their spending so that their money is not ended up in the pockets of rent seekers, to create a database of rickshaw pullers to keep check the rural-urban-rural migration flow and to initiate programs at rural and urban areas for improving their condition and creating more income generating opportunities.

Oil Price And BPC Profit

Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation is perhaps the biggest public entity that has the largest turnover and receives huge amount of subsidy every year.This time I tried to take a look at the BPC profit/loss between 2001 and 2018. I also probed how the oil price,  crude oil spending, diesel and other petroleum  spending and dollar-Taka exchange rate shaped the annual BPC loss /profit in the given period.

During the period the oil price fluctuated , hitting the nadir of $28.17 /barrel to reaching the apex of $111.29/barrel. Meanwhile, Taka depreciated gradually over the period.

Between 2011 and 2014, when the oil price in the international market was sold on average above $105/ barrel, BPC's annual loss also reached its peak. In this period , BPC made an annual loss of Tk 7184.25 crore on average. It made the highest loss Tk 11790 crore in 2012. To make up those losses it heavily hinged on government subsidy. According to a study by Policy Research Institute,energy subsidies reached 1.1% of GDP in 2012-2013. During the same period, its annual subsidy on average was Tk 7146.36 crore. In this period it received the highest subsidy of Tk 13557.83 crore in 2013. From 2014 onward, oil price fell below $50 / barrel and BPC made profit since then. Between 2016 and 2018, it did not receive any subsidy from the government. In addition, it reached break even stage in December 2018, as widely reported by the press. It reported a profit of Tk 5268 crore in 2015, Tk 6342 crore in 2016, Tk 4399 crore in 2017 and Tk 3995 crore in 2018. I had a lot of trouble while gleaning information on BPC subsidy and profit/ loss.  Bangladesh Economic Review, source of my BPC data, provided data on BPC profit/loss till 2009 after that it reported annual subsidy BPC received. So I delved into press reports, independent studies done by public and private think tanks. BPC website did not come to any help in this regard.

As possibility of oil price crossing $100/barrel mark in international market looms large, BPC again steps into a situation of making a huge loss. This year prior to budget a plea of Tk 8000 crore energy subsidy was made to the government. I have a conviction that any depreciation will cause the government to spend more on BPC subsidy.  I also ran a VAR model using the data on crude oil spending, diesel spending, oil price, BPC profit/loss and USD-Taka exchange rate. To my dismay, I was not successful and the model did not give a better reading of the situation in the given period. Granger causality test between just BPC profit/loss and USD-Taka exchange rate yielded no causality between the two. However all the crude oil spending, diesel spending and oil price were introduced into the model later and I reran the VAR model. This time the model dropped the USD-Taka variable due to multicollinearity. Moreover the forecast graph shows during the given period the model was not good at reading the changes in oil price, crude oil spending and diesel spending.

So, I still hold the conviction that any depreciation of Taka against US Dollar will increase the spending on government subsidy to BPC. And any increase in energy subsidy will compromise the social security spending and development expenditure.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(5 juillet --- 12 juillet)

Selon un reportage, Dengue s’est declaré dans tout le pays. Il y a 1016 victimes identifiés dans la première semaine de juillet. Le pays témoigne le plus de victmes en juin dans les dernières 4 années. Dans son étude ICDDR,B, le pesticide a échoué à tuer le moustique pour provoquer Dengue.

Selon un reportage, glissement de terrain a tué 4 personnes à Chattogram. Pluie incessante a inondé toute la ville.

Selon un reportage, un train a percuté un camion qui a bloqué son chemin à Gazipur, en tuant 2 personnes.

Selon un reportage, la mairie de Dhaka nord a annulé la décision d'interdire rickshaw dans les rues principales de Dhaka. La mairie de Dhaka sud n'a pas envie de changer sa décision.

Selon un reportage, des chercheurs de l'université de Dhaka a trouvé ingrédient antibiotique dans les produits laitiers fabriqués par les sociétés bangladaises.

Selon un reportage, les pluies torrentielles posent risque d'inonder tout le pays.Plusieurs fleuves ont franchi le seuil de danger.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a coupé bandwidth de deux opérateurs de service portable après les deux avaient échoué de payer leurs impôts arriérés. Les deux veulent résoudre les différences avec le gouvernement hors de la cour.

Selon un reportage, un home massacré trois personnes à Cumilla. Il était en colère avec sa femme. Les villageois l’ont battu sévèrement , provoquant sa mort.

Selon un reportage, l’ancien chef de l’ONU, le président des Îles Marshall , la reine de l’Hollonde , et chef de la Banque mondiale sont venus au Bangladesh dans visite officielle.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(28 juin --- 5 juillet)

Selon un reportage, 43 containers d’un cargo sont tombés dans la mer à cause de tourbillon près de Bhashan Char où nouveaux campes de Rohingyas ont été construits par l’armée de la mer.

Selon un reportage , police a tué un des tueurs de Rifat,tué brutalement , par une bande des aggresseurs à Barguna devant sa femme. Police a aussi arrêté 4 complices.

Selon un reportage, une frappe aérienne dans un prison de migrants étrangers en Libye a tué 40 migrants dont un Bangladais. 4 autre Bangladais ont subi des blesseures.

Selon un reportage,un prof d’Anglais a été baigné de kérosène par des universitaires à Chittagong. Ils étaient en colère contre lui. Comme des étudiants restaient absents pendant plupart de ses cours, le prof ne les ai pas passés leurs examens. Police a appréhendé un coupable.

Selon un reportage, la force frontière a tué extrajudiciarement un caméraman en l’accusant d’être baron de drogue à Cumilla.

Selon un reportage, police a appréhendé un dirigeant d’école religieuse à Narayanganj pour avoir violé 9 élèves. Selon un reportage, un adjoint d’Imam a été tué brutalement à Azimpur. Un autre adjoint reste disparu.

Selon un reportage, une société anti-piratage situé au Singapour Group 1B a divulgué l’identité des hackers dans le piratage des GAB au début de juin cette année, causant une perte de $ 3 million aux banques privées ici.

Energy Security Or Shadow Of Permit Raj?

A recent report insinuates that Petrobangla incurs loss between Tk 620 and Tk 650 million daily for LNG import and its supply to national grid. The loss stemmed from the high global oil price. LNG prices vary in line with oil prices. Petrobangla imports LNG at prices between $8.5 metric million British Thermal unit (MMBtu) and $10 MMBtu. If things go like this then at the end of this year Petrobangla will lose TK 240 billion.

Petrobangla signed two sales and purchase agreements(SPA): one with the Ras Gas of Qatar and another one with Oman Trading International. To ensure smooth supply of LNG, Petrobangla allowed construction of two LNG terminals, also known as FSRUs, at Moheshkhali. One is owned by Excelerate Energy and the other is owned by Summit Group.

Petrobangla has already managed to bag Tk 10 billion subsidy for the current fiscal year in a bid to recuperate the loss due to price volatility. Earlier it had demanded Tk 5000 crore subsidy. It is anticipated that the loss may go up due to increase in LNG import and international market price.

Petrobangla's own projection shows that gas demand will continue to rise and so is the shortfall as the production and import will not catch up the demand. For instance, in 2021 gas demand will be 4520 metric million standard cubic foot per day (mmscfd) and production will be 2,414 mmscfd. There will be a shortfall of 2106 mmscfd. At the moment two LNG terminals , also known as FSRU, have the capacity to regasify 6 million tonnes of  imported LNG every year. Another land based FSRU will be installed. In 2017-2018, power and industry accounted for 40.78% and 16.51 % of total gas consumption.  Any price hike of fuel and gas in international market will increase the cost on subsidy and energy price, which will have a domino effect on everything. Now it seems Government has to provide subsidy to  both BPC and Petrobangla to make the prices of gas and oil stable at home.

(Data Source: BIDS)

The above graph shows subsidies on petroleum products and total energy subsidies for 2010, 2011 and 2012. Two crucial ingredients for power generation are furnace oil and natural gas. Despite the fact that we imported more of these two petroleum products,we paid less because of the low oil price, as revealed by the following two graphs. An increase in oil price will lead to raise the furnace oil price and LNG price. As the price of oil crossing $100/barrel looms large, government may end up providing subsidies both to BPC and Petrobangla, increasing further total energy subsidies. A depreciation of Taka against dollar will further compound the situation requiring the government to pay more for the subsidies.

(Data Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2018)

(Data Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2018)

Bangladesh enjoyed a stable international oil market where oil was sold at below$50 per barrel in recent years.  Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation that distributes and markets petroleum goods made profits in this period and reached break even level in December last year, a thing none thought possible.It received huge amount of subsidies till 2015.After that it recorded profit due to low oil price, mostly below$50/barrel. As the domestic reserve of gas is depleting fast, the idea of LNG import came. Back then prices were lower due to stable oil market. Industrial units, power plants and fertilizer factories heavily hinge on natural gas. In order to ensure secure LNG supply, idea of import came to the policy planners' mind. Petrobangla that explores, manages and sells oil, gas and other minerals in the country purchases natural gas Tk 6 per cubic meter from domestic sources whereas imported LNG costs Tk 38 per cubic meter. Now it mixes locally procured gas with the imported one to cater to the need of domestic clients. Consequently, it will raise the price of natural gas for domestic users. Luckily  its LNG policy , just finalized, allows private importer to sell imported LNG to any client(industrial one) at bargained price and this "LNG Import Policy For Private Sector 2019" also assures that government will not intervene in fixing the price between the parties. Moreover, private importers will be able to sell imported LNG, not exceeding 25% of the total amount, to Petrobangla at a price set by Petrobangla. This kind of arrangements will relieve some of the pressures of Petrobangla. However, the contract of import and supply of LNG is awarded to some groups who are more closer to government. Now many fear in the absence of other competent players this private LNG contracts will look more like an extension of the permit raj scheme. There are groups who could form consortium to vie for this kind of business. Thereby ensuring more competition and choices to clients.

In the past we have seen good plans rendered useless due to corruption and governance failure. For instance, Gas Transmission Company Limited installed gas transmission line between Bheramara and Khulna. GTCL also set up a gas transmission line between  Haatikumrul and Bheramara. Both the projects cost thousands of crore Taka. According to GTCL, first project was completed in December 2015. And the second one a year later. When they were envisaged , it was anticipated that they would be connected to the national grid. That did not happen and no one knows when it will happen. It is just another " Khamba project", where electricity transmission polls were installed without increasing the production of electricity, that left a serious blot in BNP regime's reputation. The two said gas transmission lines not only swallowed taxpayer's money but represent a classic example how politically motivated and blessed projects are often doomed to fail, costing the economy a good chunk of hard-earned resources.

To obviate the uncertainties of energy supplies is what  prompted the government to import and supply LNG. Now it appears any volatility in the international market will increase the subsidy of the government to BPC and Petrobangla, opening up another cause of concerns since this kind of energy subsidy makes a heavy dent in other priority sectors. It is laudable that government encourages private companies to supply LNG at negotiated price. However transparency is needed to be ensured so that every one gets a fair chance to take advantage of Private LNG Import Policy. During the restricted phase of our economy, we witnessed emergence of permit raj/ license raj allowing a tiny privileged group to take larger share of economy hampering welfare  and pushing larger section of the population to vulnerabilities. Energy price affects everything. So Bangladesh just cannot afford to watch another phase of extended permit raj by allowing a tiny section in the vital energy market.