Lessons From Probhaat Ferry

Split is gone before the morning procession Kids never spoil the grand occasion. Shutting down a daily before the Ekushey Hurts talks while tempers begin to fray.

The quintessential part of commemorating Amar Ekushey on February 21 (Mother Language Day) is to take part in Probhaat Ferry (the morning procession) that ultimately ends in offering flowers bouquet at Shaheed Minar(Language Martyrs’ Memorial Monument). The commemoration of Mother Language Day has been observed every year since 1952 when students and ordinary people took bullets in demanding Bengali as state language of Pakistan along with Urdu. Pakistani rulers complied but the language movement culminated into a full-blown freedom struggle and gave birth to Bangladesh (Land of the Bengali speakers).

In the early morning of 21st February, people from all walks of life clad in black/white Punjabi/Saree take part in a brief morning procession called Provaat Ferry and lay flower at the footsteps of language monument, often erected at parks and educational institutions. At educational institutions, it is a must. When we were kids ,it was pretty common. Over the years, it faded away and restricted into the confines of govt programs and key institutions. Revival of probhaat ferry in recent years is a good sign.

I still remember when we were kids how we spent days and nights in the preparation of observing the day.I live in a neighborhood that is adjacent to cantonment. Back then a huge lake,now turned into an apartment complex, separated the neighborhood from the cantonment. During the winter,the lake dried up and walkways through the lake provided us the opportunity to explore the rural part of the other side. In the Monsoon, the lake turned into a vast ocean and we often went for a boat ride/picnic like Huckleberry Finn. I never forget the taste of rice,brinjal fry,egg curry we cooked on a makeshift brick stove. Sometimes we played cricket. We played all day long with stems of Pink Morning Glory ,which was used as bush hedge on the perimeter of a house. The dried stems looked like assault rifles. We aimed them at imaginary enemy and made crackling sounds with mouth. But the most adventurous task we embarked upon is the one that took place on the day before 21st February. We crossed the lake and raided the cantonment in search of flowers. We went door to door in that heavily guarded area. Security guards and occupants of the houses were welcoming and appreciating. Every houses had flower gardens. Marygold, Rose, Dahlia, Sunflower and Chrysanthemum were in abundance. They plucked the flowers and donated them to us with a smile. Bigger the flower,greater is our hope that we are receiving all the blessings from heaven.Having gathered enough flowers,we spared no time to make a bouquet. Our team effort was short lived. Soon we split into two or more groups over trivial issues. Discord was often about who would lead the procession and hold the bouquet. But somehow we overcame all the differences and made the event a successful one. The monument was covered with flowers. By noon,a completely opposite scene was staged.The disciplined crowd turned into a bunch of marauding monkeys and joined the pillage of the Shaheed Minar.Some grabbed the biggest bouquet and some got hold of few Dahlias and ran towards home. Few petals and Marygolds were all left on the Shaheed Minar.Nowadays we have become civilized. Display of such plundering of Shaheed Minar is conspicuously absent. This is indeed a progress in human development!

Despite being kids,we know how to unify all on grand occasion. With heavy heart the country witnessed that the day before 21st February govt shut down a daily that worked as spokesman of the main opposition over whimsical reason. It is indeed a blow to freedom of expression and reconciliation that ultimately leads us to a functioning democracy. The action is contradictory to the very spirits of language movement. It is unfortunate that govt sometimes takes some steps that even the Pakistani rulers did not dare to take during the time of military dictatorship. On the grand event like Probhaat Ferry we made sure no one is left behind and take part in the morning procession. But it is sad that govt used the sacred month and the grand event to drive a further wedge between the two major parties instead of walking the path of reconciliation. Sometimes I feel in this country the kids show maturity than the grown ups.

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(18 février --- 23 février)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
18	Pain tchapati,Pama croaker	Riz,Chou-fleur,Ruhi avec haricot,Soupe aux lentilles	Chou-fleur,Soupe aux lentilles, Ruhi avec haricot,Riz	Lait
19	Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur,Œuf dur,Lait	Riz,Courge amère,Ruhi,Soupe aux lentilles,Radi et Brocoli	Radi et Brocoli,Ruhi,Pois chiches,Riz	---
20	Pain tchapati,Omelette, Lait	Riz,Courge amère,Tilapia avec haricot	Tilapia avec haricot,Riz	---
21	Pain tchapati,Haricot, Lait	Riz,Tilapia avec haricot	Purée de tomate,Purée de pomme de terre,Riz	---
22	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Omelette, Lait	Riz,Purée de haricot, Chou-fleur,Soupe aux lentilles	Purée de haricot,Soupe aux lentilles,Pois chiches,Chou-fleur,Riz	---
23	Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur	Riz,Ruhi avec haricot,Chou	Ruhi avec haricot,Chou,Pois chiches,Riz	---
24	Pain tchapati,Chou	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre,Ruhi,Tomate,Soupe aux vigna mungo avec papaye	Pain tchapati,Purée de pomme de terre,Ruhi	---

Premature Pension Scheme

Pension scheme about to start its journey Govt has yet to fix pensioner’s money. Past experience with savings certificate May hamper pension fund's target.

Nitty-gritty of the universal pension bill has gradually been revealed. Govt has decided to launch it from July 01. Bangladeshis aged between 18 years and 50 years are eligible to take part in this scheme. Govt has yet to form a National Pension Committee to manage the fund.After that quasi-state and independent organizations could take part in this scheme. According to a news report,lowest monthly fee could be Tk 500.The monthly amount will fetch Tk 60 billion per year¹. But ministry of finance hopes to form an annual pension fund even bigger than that because those who can pay more could eventually pay a fee more than Tk 1000/Tk 2000.

One of the good things about this pension scheme is that participant could draw credit of upto 50% from this fund if participant needs to use pension fund before maturity. In my January 27 piece titled “Universal Pension Bill: Could It Really Take Off?” I argued that raising savings through pension fund may not go as smoothly as govt intended at the initial stage.

As deficits get bigger and bigger,our output will be lower. Our major markets across the globe are in recession.So our savings will be lower in the future². Household's ability to spend will deteriorate further in the wake of inflation, loss of income and further fall of taka. So how many of the people outside institutional job market will take part in this program is a matter of serious scrutiny²

.

People’s experience with national savings certificate is not good. Inflation made them net loser at the end of the day. Sloppy management of the economy is also to blame. So pension scheme may not create the enthusiasm among people.

It is interesting that govt has not fixed yet the amount it will pay to the pensioners but fixed the contribution amount. It somehow calls into question cash-strapped government’s intention.

Earlier govt planned to float Bangla Bond/sovereign bond in the London Stock Exchange.Corona threw cold water into it. Govt earlier also instructed quasi-state and independent organizations to disclose funds at their disposal.Interestingly, many quasi-state organizations like BPC withdrew their funds from some problem ridden banks, weakening further portfolios of the banks. This indicates the level of confidence people and organizations have on govt.

Govt is pretty determined to emulate the West except the accountability and moral standard. Govt earlier had changed Bank ownership act(later fixed to unlock IMF credit) citing example of the USA where family members own a bank and many banks with one brunch. But in the USA fraud like Bernie Madoff spends rest of their lives in jail. This example has yet to be emulated here.

Pension scheme is indeed a good and laudable move. But it is still a premature concept in the context of Bangladesh where governance is in tatters and ruling regime seldom think about welfare of the depositors. When a regime is pretty sure about its assumption of and exit from power, it bothers little about ordinary depositors’ interest and at the end of the day the country and economy pay the the cost.

Notes And References

1. ”Mashey Sorbonimno Chandra Hotey Parey Panchsho Taka(Lowest Monthly Contribution Could Be Tk 500)”,Daily Prothom Alo,P-12,February 15,2023.
2. ”Universal Pension Bill: Could It Really Take Off?”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com. For more see at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2023/01/universal-pension-bill-could-it-really.html?m=1

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(11 février --- 17 février)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
11	Pain tchapati,Chou,Œuf dur	Riz,Chou,Ruhi,Soupe à tomate	Paratha(fait par moi),Chou,Soupe à tomate, Riz	---
12	Pain tchapati,Chou,Œuf dur	Riz,Feuilles de gourde calebasse,Ruhi et pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles,Gombo	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Purée de pomme de terre,Soupe aux lentilles, Riz,Gombo	---
13	Pain tchapati,Omelette	Riz,Tilapia et pomme de terre,Tomate	Tilapia et pomme de terre,Chou-fleur,Tomate, Riz	---
14	Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur	Riz,Chou-fleur, Tilapia et pomme de terre,Purée de pomme de terre,Tomate	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Purée de pomme de terre,Tomate	---
15	Pain tchapati,Omelette	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Chou-fleur, Haricot, Pomme de terre,Tomate	Soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre,Œuf dur,Tomate, Riz	---
16	Pain tchapati,Omelette	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles,Radi et brocoli,Ruhi,Purée de pomme de terre,Tomate	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Radi et brocoli	---
17	Pain tchapati,Purée de pomme de terre	Riz,Lentil soup,Mashed pomme de terre et haricot, Pama croaker	Soupe aux lentilles,Purée de pomme de terre et haricot,Pama croaker, Riz	---

Woe Called Revenue Receipts

Fetching extra revenue is on the list How to achieve that is the main twist.

Govt is running its second IMF program. First one was in 2014.One of the conditions set by IMF for the $4.7 billion credit package is to raise tax earnings each year by 0.5 % -0.7% of GDP for the next three consecutive years. A private research organization Policy Research Institute put the absolute figure like this: govt has to add extra tax-revenue of Tk 650 billion to its coffer in 2023-24; in 2024-25,it will have to add further Tk 733 billion; additional Tk957 billion will be required in 2025-26,final year of IMF's ongoing program¹. It is indeed an uphill task for National Board of Revenue (NBR). Yet it has radiated confidence before the govt to finish the task.

Press is abuzz with reports showing skepticism about government’s ability to amass the extra Tk 2340 billion in three years. Composition of revenue receipts gives some hints about the areas that will bear the brunt of generating tax revenue. In terms of revenue receipts, Value Added Tax(VAT) tops the list, followed by income tax. Then comes import duty and supplementary duty. In 2020-21,revenue receipt from VAT was Tk 1.15 trillion.Income tax revenue was Tk 959.50 billion.Revenue from supplementary duty was Tk 482.98 billion.Apart from that import duty fetched Tk371.54 billion².Contributions of export duty and excise duty to total revenue receipts are not significant. News report indicates that NBR is in discussion with large taxpayers to hike tax on income and profit. It is the easiest mean at its disposal. But a rise in corporate tax will definitely give a boost to its earnings.

Meanwhile, Non Performing Loan(NPL) stood at Tk 1.34 trillion by the end of 2022. In 2009,when the current govt assumed power it was Tk 220 billion. A clear indication of sloppy economic management and increasing incidence of cronyism. At public banks NPL is 23% of total credit. IMF demands that it be below 10%. If that happens, operating profits of the public banks will likely to rise and NBR could get extra revenue from them. However, the Islamic banks are in dire conditions following series of scams. It may hurt their operating profit. In that light NBR may not get the desired revenue from these banks.

Another way to bring extra revenue is through raising VAT. NBR could raise it from 15% to 16%. But as utility fares are hiked by significant amount, cost has gone up and profitability of the business has shrunk. Further VAT increase will definitely hurt the business. But NBR could easily get extra VAT revenue resulting from a rise in utility fare. So I think NBR may not hike the VAT anymore.

Another option is to raise the supplementary duty. Supplementary duty on soybean oil,onion,pulses could be a good option as their prices in the international market are on decline. Similar duty on mobile talk time and data could bring more revenues to govt coffer. However, govt claims that mobile operators are yet to pay overdue revenue. As business prospect is bleak, it is unlikely that govt will get huge revenue through supplementary duty on mobile phone services.

I have earlier argued for raising the source tax for exporters. Supplementary duty could also be imposed on export earnings. Govt could compensate the exporters by raising subsidy or floating special local currency funds to buy dollar from the market. Export revenue is still low compared to import revenue. So this is one particular area where NBR should focus on.

Tobacco,Metro,rail ticket could be other sources for extra revenue. As metro service will come into operation by the end of this year,govt could lower the fare significantly and then impose supplementary duty on metro fare. It will increase the frequency of commuters and thereby will raise the revenue. More rail tracks are added into the existing network. So more fast train services await to start operation.Supplementary duty on them could boost the revenue. Similarly,supplementary duty on social media,multiplex screen and restaurant could also be considered.

I once argued for NBR bond for people who do not fall into the definition of taxpayers. Street vendors, small businesses, food stalls could buy these bonds and have a feeling of contributing to the economy. In exchange ,govt could offer some benefits for these groups and launch a lottery program to transfer back part of the revenue.

Given the dismal economic conditions prevail in the major economies, the revenue target is a tough one to achieve. Inflation taming and investment shrinking measures have made the job even more difficult. Yet NBR is optimistic about reaching the target. Undoubtedly, it has to improvise to get extra revenue.

Notes And References

1. " Bipul Onker Barti Kor Ashbe Kivabey(How To Get Extra Tax Revenue) ",Daily Prothom Alo,P-12,February 08,2023.
2. Bangladesh Economic Review 2021

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(03 février --- 10 février)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
04	Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre et haricots,Soupe aux lentilles,Feuilles de fenugrec	Riz,Purée de pomme de terre et haricots ,Soupe aux lentilles	Patate douce
05	Pain tchapati,Omelette	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Tomate	Paratha(fait par moi),Chou-fleur	Nouilles
06	Pain tchapati,Omelette	---	---	---
07	Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Pois chiches	Paratha(fait par moi),Œuf dur,Purée de pomme de terre	Pois chiches
08	Pain tchapati,Œuf dur	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou, Pois chiches,Pomme de terre,Ruhi,Feuilles de gourde calebasse	Paratha(fait par moi),Ruhi	---
09	Pain tchapati,Chou,Œuf dur	Riz,Soupe à tomate, Chou, Purée de pomme de terre,Ruhi	Paratha(fait par moi),Purée de pomme de terre	---
10	Pain tchapati,Omelette	Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Purée de pomme de terre,	Paratha(fait par moi),Chou-fleur	---

BURMA Act And Bangladesh

BURMA Act and the new defense bill May provoke temptation and misadventurous zeal. Staying neutral and sticking to the plan May find a solution that no one can.

In December last year, US senate incorporated BURMA Act 2021 in its Defense Authorization Bill¹. It underscores increasing civilian support to restoration of democracy and ongoing resistance against the ruling regime. As Bangladesh houses more than one million Rohingyas in its soil, it has significance for the country too.

State of emergency has been extended to six months by military govt in Myanmar. News reports indicate that ruling regime controls 17% of the land in Myanmar. There is no doubt that escalation of fighting inside Myanmar further prolongs the repatriation of the Rohingyas.

Meanwhile, in Bangladesh ,restive situation prevails in some of the Rohingya camps,adjacent to front line in Bandarban. Fighting for dominance between two armed Rohingyas groups rendered homeless thousands of Rohingyas. They have now been relocated to bigger camps by the authority.In addition, winter sets the occasion for the Rohingyas to set off clandestine boat ride destined to affluent East Asian countries. In most of the cases, such attempt ended in tragedies and news items.

Last week, on the eve of second anniversary of military takeover in Myanmar, a private university of Bangladesh organized a seminar. In that seminar, a shadow minister of the unity government expressed his commitment of ensuring justice for the Rohingyas and stressed that restoration of democracy could offer durable solution to existing problems of Myanmar².

Bangladesh has so far maintained a buffer and humanitarian role to the internal situation of Myanmar. I think it will play that role in future as well and open its door for all the parties of Myanmar on humanitarian ground.

It is prudent to refrain from taking side in the bloodletting inside Myanmar. Bangladesh should use its leverage to make bridge and reconciliation among feuding parties. Because struggle of power is temporary and institutions of a country are permanent. Both the feuding parties will remember who took part in killing their comrades and it may open future chapter of hostility which is not best for our interest in the long run. For instance, Indian support to our independence movement is not read and interpreted in the same manner by all the quarters in Bangladesh.

Territorial tension will be there. Different nations will have different interests. We have to focus on our one and make sure what serves best to attain that. At the same time,it is naïve to assume that we have great geopolitical importance. Myanmar’s geopolitical importance far outweighs ours. That is why we have to remain neutral and navigate carefully to reach our mission to make Bangladesh a functioning democracy and a prosperous country.

Bangladesh right now faces current account and budget deficit. The country is taking an IMF credit package of $4.7 billion. Meanwhile, recession and war make West's continuous support for the Rohingya refugees untenable. In that light,Bangladesh has to foster bilateral and regional connections to get a temporary solution for its Rohingya crisis. Emulating Bhashan Char model inside Myanmar or other parts of East Asia could be an alternative. Bangladesh could approach Myanmar to arrange an island or coastal land with easy access to other part of the world in a bid to relocate them. East Asian countries sympathetic to Rohingya cause could also provide such facilities to Rohingyas under the auspices of UN. Similarly, we can invite Myanmar or other ASEAN countries to participate in funding Rohingyas’ education,health and other livelihood programs. This kind of initiative will ease the burden of Bangladesh and enhance the commitment of participating countries to put an end to Rohingya crisis.

Burma Act and Defense Authorization Bill may act as temptation to take precarious and peace-killing stance.Back in April,2019, I penned a piece titled “Stick To Bilateral Agreement” highlighting commitment to bilateral ties and working partnership and avoiding misadventure³. Subsequent events may render the argument sounds less effective in the present context but for our future and long term goal a better alternative has not emerged yet.

Notes And References

1. "US Senate Passes Defense Authorization Bill ,Including Myanmar Language", Ingyin Naing,Voice Of America,December 16,2022. For more read at https://www.voanews.com/a/us-senate-passes-defense-authorization-bill-including-myanmar-language/6879009.html
2. "Jantar Amoley Rohingya Somoshhar Somadhan Kothin",Daily Prothom Alo,P-3,February 01,2023
3. "Stick To Bilateral Agreement ",Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com.April 19,2019. For more read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2019/04/stick-to-bilateral-agreement.html?m=1

[Note: This piece has been updated on February 04,2023 at 8:30 Bangladesh Standard Time. Update includes references.]