It Is Indeed Good For Us

Delaying graduation clips the wings, Delaying opportunities as popular mood swings.

Bangladesh's plan to become graduate from Least Developing Countries(LDC) faces stiff resistance from various quarters. In 2026, Bangladesh is scheduled to get out from LDC countries, discarding the privileges it is enjoying all these years. Bangladesh is supposed to be a developing country by 2020. However,COVID-19 obstructed the graduation. Now many business platforms and other organizations suggest the govt to delay the graduation for another 3/5 years. Removal of duty-free access,higher cost of private loan, Intellectual Property Related(IPR) restrictions are identified as reasons behind such proposition.

Govt earlier decided to make appeal against graduation, but later dropped the idea in favor [of] smooth graduation. I personally think smooth graduation will be best possible alternative instead of delay. This is not the first time we are encountering a situation like this.The closure of Multi Fiber Arrangement back in 2005 cast similar shadow over our RMG export and economy. The MFA allowed Bangladesh to source raw-materials from various countries and export the ready-made garments to the West, which also gave Bangladesh quota on RMG export. The facility was a relaxation on value addition clause and ensured some set market access for Bangladesh. Many argued that post-MFA and Quota period [would] be a doomsday scenario for Bangladesh garments. Fortunately, Bangladesh proved them wrong, increasing volume of export from mere $5 billion to more than $40 billion now. And Bangladesh also increased its value addition in the RMG sector. It also witnessed unprecedented amount of investment in backward and forward linkage industry.

By the same token, I am convinced, post-LDC graduation will be a path strewn with overcoming challenges,bringing the changes needed for a developing country and endless opportunities against the overblown challenges.

First, disappearance of duty-free access is an ungrounded fear. The moment I am writing this ,Japan has already given Bangladesh duty-free access for 3 more years after LDC graduation in 2026. Tariff debate has led to bilateral trade agreements that witness many countries enjoying favorable access to developed countries. FTAs,PTAs turn out to be deciding factors here. Despite being an LDC country,Bangladesh may lose big if its rivals get FTA advantage to key export destinations. Solution is to become a developing country and ink more FTAs.

Second, duty-free access to developed countries also accompanied with money laundering activities through faulty ,and willful, trade invoices. Even official export figure encountered $10 billion mismatch in 2024, an embarrassment to the govt. Removal of duty-free access will curb the incidence of money laundering and provide opportunities for more able exporters,showing the wrongdoers the exit door. Small and medium factories will become subcontractors of big exporters. Voilà, this withdrawal of duty-free access is not an issue.

Third, no more soft credit is also a boon for Bangladesh. As I shared this perception before, higher interest rate works as screen to thwart any attempt to take unnecessary loans. Bangladeshis in general are paying the price for this unaccountable development works at the cost of their money with the support of soft credit. So there will be less unreasonable development works with the evaporation of soft credit. Private sector that depends on overseas credit market will come to stock market for financing, developing the local bond market and ensuring more accountability and transparency.

Fourth, intellectual property right hurdles will pave the path for domestic investment on local solutions for addressing the issue. One argument I hear is that medicines will be costly as the ingredients will be costly (they will no longer be free). Govt recently lowered duty on cancer-related drugs. Govt can do so for essential drugs on serious diseases. I think once this advantage is over,we will see shutting down of many small pharmaceutical companies. Many of them have capacity to produce base ingredients for medicines of silly diseases and often they are being used as precursor to make narcotics in the neighboring countries. UNODC already highlighted the issue in its report(see "UNODC Report & Meth Market Of Bangladesh" published here on July 25,2019). LDC graduation is a hidden blessing for Bangladesh in combatting the narco. It will significantly lower the incidence of narco activities and curbing the volume of narco trade and thereby lowering the incidence of narco-related violence.

Fifth, LDC graduation will make govt more oriented to people. As a developing country, govt will be committed to ensure accountability, spend a percentage of its GDP in healthcare, education, defense and other sectors like other responsible developing countries.And we will see people-centric development and policy initiatives.

Plethora of arguments put forward to delay LDC graduation based on unsubstantiated fear. I hope this piece will work as a template for the low voice in favor of early graduation that Bangladesh desperately needs. LDC graduation is indeed opening opportunities for Bangladesh as a hidden blessing to address many enduring issues that deeply trouble the country. The UN itself once delayed graduation of Bhutan and this may happen with Bangladesh, a country plagued by corruption and mismanagement. I hope the incumbent and future govt will stay on course for graduation by 2026. Delaying graduation means delaying the opportunities.

[Update: this piece is updated by me on November 14,2025 at 9 PM Bangladesh Standard Time.Update includes reference to UNODC report.]

Uncomfortable Truth In War On Drugs

Rapid trial to an unjust killing
Exposes discriminatory system's dual meaning.
Lack of legitimacy and moral high ground
Makes an institution lose the battle on the ground.

Last week a court in Cox's Bazaar sentenced two police personnel to death and three others to life imprisonment in connection with killing of a former Army major in Marine Drive,Cox's Bazaar¹.The killing of Army major in the narco ville of Cox’s Bazaar, where one of the prime accused OC Pradeep executed 144 people extra-judicially, caused lots of media sensation in 2020.

It was widely reported on the press that Major(retired)Sinha and his team was doing some kind of travel docu for social media or foreign channel during the time when the country was in strict lockdown. There were reports that claimed that he was there undercover to investigate the unusual killing in Teknaf, small town adjacent to Myanmar and key methamphetamine corridor. But he squeezed OC Pradeep in his face-to-face encounter and got himself killed by OC Pradeep and his men who waylaid Dhaka-bound Major Sinha on Marine Drive,Cox's Bazaar. By the time he was doing the travel docu,Major Sinha ,a former member of Prime Minister’s special security force, retired from the Army. On the other hand, Army on several occasions dissuaded him from doing this and even approached his mother to tell her son not to do that.

It was still unclear what Major Sinha's objective was in Cox's Bazaar. But his killing and the subsequent trial brought to fore discriminatory nature of Bangladesh’s legal system.

In 2018,two years earlier of Major(retired) Sinha killing, another extra judicial killing of a counselor in Teknaf shocked the nation².Viral audio of the killing was particularly shocking.This killing of counselor Ekram was instrumental behind imposing US sanctions on RAB and its then DG,now IGP of Police. Despite the media publicity and international pressure, culprits have not yet been brought to book. Meanwhile, trial on Major(retired) Sinha was finished within 29 working days. For the man-in-fatigue justice speaks one way and for the ordinary citizens it speaks another way.

As Major(retired) Sinha was a military officer, retired army officers formed a committee to probe on the matter. One of the member of that committee, former principal staff officer and brother of current DNCC mayor, told the press that it was a coldblooded murder and Sinha did not engage in any gun battle.Had he really engaged,he might have shot 8 rounds straight into target in a matter of 5 seconds. Moreover, he urged the government to end all extra judicial killing in the name of war on drugs and declare amnesty.

Those pleas washed away long ago. Many more chilling killing took place after that. Day after the Sinha verdict,High Court upheld a lower court's decision to sentence a man(belonging to Hindu faith) to life imprisonment for carrying codeine-filled syrup³. No sign of amnesty here for a peddler!

Meanwhile, UNODC on its report noted that drug making ingredients entered Myanmar through its neighbors including Bangladesh⁴. Even Myanmar echoed that report.So far,Bangladesh did not refute that claim, nor demand any explanation. I have not seen yet any ISPR press release, nor any Foreign Ministry protest.

In one of my earlier pieces, I highlighted how security establishment-backed groups made a fortune and amassed wealth in offshore haven while a war on drugs is going on⁵. Most of the regional drug barrons also bank and reside in those offshore havens. While this kind of backing is inflating their wallets,narcotic substance is spreading across the country.

Meanwhile, many poor peasant folks, fired workers, petty employees,homeless people,unemployed---the very people these agencies were to protect through their prior information and superior knowledge---were fell victims to drug trafficking and paid heavy price. Not only that clandestine wealth backed sectors like real-estate just flourished. In many instances, these agencies were used to deal with disputes in controversial sectors.

Last year, a land dispute near Mirpur DOHS,Pallabi witnessed murder of a man by a goon.The whole incident was caught on camera. Later RAB in a gunfight killed the prime suspect who could provide the investigators the lead to the main plotters.

In another incident in Cumilla, where a communal stirring witnessed vandalism in several Hindu temples and killing of people across Bangladesh, RAB killed key suspects,member of a former mayor, who could lead to crack the mystery behind the communal attacks.

Many of the controversial e-commerce platforms that were used to launder money abroad indirectly owned by corrupt law-enforcement official. E-orange and inspector Sohel Rana are the names to be mentioned.

Agencies conducting the so called war on drugs have lost moral high ground long ago. In addition, many of them suffers from lack of legitimacy in the eyes of the public. In the past, some of them derailed democracy, killed C-in-Cs. No official probe is done. What is worrying some of these institutions is not accountable to press, Parliament and people. With biasedness, lack of legitimacy and less transparency, these agencies continue to operate as usual. Let the Sinha murder verdict be an occasion to start constitutional reform to hold these institutions accountable and transparent rather than giving them a boost to do things as usual.

Notes And References:

1 “Sinha Hotyakanda Chhilo Porikolpito(Sinha Murder Was Pre-planned)”,Gazi Feroz,Daily Prothom Alo,February 01,2022.

2 “Bhoot Ke Bhoy Lage Na, Manush Ke Bhoy Lage( I Don’t Scare Ghost, But I Scare People) “,Gazi Feroz and Gias Uddin,Daily Prothom Alo,February 03,2022.

3 “Fencidyl Rakhar Daye Ek Byaktir Jabojjibon(Man Sentenced To Life Imprisonment For Possessing Fencidyl)”,Daily Prothom Alo,February 02,2022.

4 “UNODC Report And Meth Market Bangladesh”,Rezaul Hoque,July 25,2019. For more read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2019/07/unodc-report-meth-market-of-bangladesh.html?m=1

5 “An Interview And Power Of Pacifism “,Rezaul Hoque, January 07,2022. For more, read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2022/01/an-interview-and-power-of-pacifism.html?m=1

An Interview And Power Of Pacifism

Passive resistance and power of pacifism
Make strong Bangladesh and end jingoism.

A Bangladeshi daily recently took an interview of head of Arakan Army,a group fighting for independence in Rakhine State of Myanmar. Key takeaways of that interview are: Arakan Army signed a ceasefire agreement with Tatmadaw,it maintains a 30000-strong army, it recognizes Rohingyas as “Muslims of Rakhine State”,it wants to play role in resolving the Rohingya crisis and awaits Bangladesh response,situation in Rakhine State is not conducive for Rohingya repatriation,its parallel administration in Rakhine State employs local Muslims, armed Muslim cadre of Arakan Army recently defected and joined ARSA, and Bangladesh does not like its activity in Bangladeshi side and it honors Bangladesh’s stance¹.

The interview was published at a time when UN rapporteur on human rights situation in Myanmar in a press conference claimed that UN has information on ARSA activities inside the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh². Prior to that a Rohingya leader was shot dead by assailants believed to be ARSA cadres. Slain leader Muhibullah played crucial role in mobilizing Rohingyas to raise their demand for trying Myanmar Army for the brutality against Rohingya.

Despite the relative calm in the Rakhine State due to the ceasefire agreement,clashes erupted in neighboring Chin State and other parts of Myanmar.

Bangladesh so far did the right thing to keep itself aloof from the internal turbulence of Myanmar. However, in the past, Bangladeshi authority detained several separatists from CHT and ceased and destroyed many poppy and cannabis fields whose ownership remained mystery though publicly it was claimed that those were operated by separatist groups of both the countries. CHT has a heavy presence of armed forces personnel.

Invasion of methamphetamine at ease also questions willingness of its security establishment to contain the problem. The problem is so grave that killing of a retired Army officer by a Police officer almost created rift between the govt and the Army. And extrajudicial killing of a counselor in Cox's Bazaar resulted in imposition of sanction against key personnel of RAB and Police.

Despite being a suspect, Tatmadaw did far more better job in nabbing drug kingpins. Tatmadaw cooperated with international press to unearth the drug operations inside its territory. Such effort helped international authority to arrest a drug lord in Europe,known as “El Chapo of Asia”³.Meanwhile, Bangladesh authority always throws cold water to any such initiative and even put up hurdles in doing report by international press. Even it remained silent to Tatmadaw’s accusations of infiltrating drug-making ingredients inside Myanmar. Tatmadaw was just echoing an UNODC report that shared some chilling findings on drug trade in this region. According to UNODC report, size of methamphetamine market in Bangladesh is $5.5 billion⁴. Without endorsement of security establishment, such trade cannot continue unabated. In addition, such illicit trade is key to sustain insurgent groups and cadre-based political parties which are aplenty in this part of the world.

Many army-backed group in the past found involved in accumulating wealth abroad and investment in troubled region of Bangladesh. Sikder Group created a storm in the tea cup by purchasing land from Sena Kalyan Sangstha in Bandarban,few kilometers away from Myanmar border, in a bid to set up a five-star hotel. Indigenous Mro people protested the purchase arguing the land belonged to them and it threatened their livelihood⁵. The group has investments in Thailand and Caribbean Islands⁶. Earlier, Singapore authority froze an account of $1 billion belonged to an individual from Bangladesh⁷. News report of local daily revealed that it belongs to a Bangladeshi politician who was hanged by Bangladesh for war crimes. He was advisor of parliamentary affairs to former Prime Minister and his family owns QC shipping line and private container depot among other ventures. It was unknown how Salahuddin Quader Chowdhury amassed such wealth abroad. List goes on. A Bangladeshi businessman enters the list of billionaires of Singapore⁸. He is brother of a ruling party politician who also headed parliamentary committee on defense. The Summit Group like Quader Chowdhury also operates a cargo container service (riverine), an inland container depot and an LNG terminal.

Despite being a democratic county (non-functioning),we have institutions that have no accountability to people.Such lacking in turn help fostering criminal activities and groups.

Tatmadaw fares well in contrast to our ones.From one of earlier posts,sharing my views on Tatmadaw:

Unlike other regional armies, Tatmadaw has some unique features. It is an organization that was not modeled after the outgoing colonial master's army and that does not hinge on its former colonial master to train its personnel as some of its neighbors do. Home-grown and oriental orientation to training and grooming of future military leaders have its pros and cons. Often in our region we see regional armies have officers whose views and convictions are moulded by the country of origin of their trainers. At various stages, they developed some kind of split loyalty and embarked upon misadventures that froze constitution and took away freedom of expression for several years. This derailment of democracy, often happens through bloody events, crippled institutions that are quintessential to flourish democracy⁹.

Following an impasse in the repatriation process and a World Bank policy framework on refugee management inside Bangladesh, a former Foreign Secretary wrote the following in his column:

They have to fight their own struggles and others can only assist them. No sign is there among them. Are they waiting for angels to send them back to their homeland? No such thing happened to ethnic groups who had been displaced for many reasons.

Following the assumption of power by Myanmar military, NLD and other small parties formed a coalition government. Many ethnic guerrilla groups joined them. But no one recognizes it, even Bangladesh does not recognize it. Bangladesh should not recognize it. But no recognition does not bar one to have contact with such government. Indirect contact could be set up and an understanding should be reached in a bid to resolve the Rohingya crisis. … this government pledged to resolve the Rohingya crisis, no matter how fragile that pledge is,Rohingyas should step forward. Not that every Rohingya will play an armed role,but could play the role of close confident.For the sake of long term interest,Bangladesh needs to play a role to make a close contact between Rohingya and NLD-led coalition government. Small investment could yield better harvest. Nothing guarantees resolving the crisis,but useless it is to miss the chances,be it big or small.¹⁰

Last year in August 15,I penned a piece titled “What’s In A Name?“. Sharing parts of it again:

I think Bangladesh should abstain from entertaining any armed misadventure to put an end to Rohingya crisis. It will not only harm image of Bangladesh,but will also engender our relationship with our neighbors. Pitfalls lie in such ideas could unsettle and undo any short term gains.Look at Pakistan. Despite being one of the victims of terrorism, its built-in image makes it a less trustworthy partner in international community.Its democratic institutions are in tatters as domestic and foreign policies were decided by others ignoring people’s representatives and the Parliament.

Bangladesh should not tread on that path as such steps may hurt our image and may ostracize us in international community. Moreover,we inked a bilateral deal with Myanmar regarding repatriation of the Rohingyas. Any misadventure may put on hold that process and cost us losing the Myanmar Army that has been in charge of running the country for the last six decades and may do so for the next six decades or so. They are the only powerful institution in that country and has considerable leverages on the country and people. Myanmar as a country is a delicate case in the region. China,Thailand and India all house thousands of ethnic Myanmar groups. But never support directly any armed struggles against the Tatmadaw. And the countries maintain good relations and help it militarily¹¹.

From the interview of Arakan Army chief, it has become clear the Rakhine State is not safe for Rohingya repatriation. Frustrations of Bangladeshi policymakers over the issue also worry ordinary citizens as it may lead to choosing a wrong step.

The prolonged nature of the Rohingya crisis makes donor agencies’ suggestion for access to education, setting up business, land purchase and access to credit more tenable. The measures will make them less vulnerable to the lures of evil quarters, will empower them and thereby will reduce the risks coming from the camp-dwelling Rohingyas.

Without any mainstream education and livelihood opportunities, there is a risk that they may fall victims of regimented groups by subscribing to non-mainstream education. It will make the Rohingya management much more difficult. No matter which sides of the border the Rohingyas reside in, educated Rohingyas will be true asset for both the countries.

I think the best way to mitigate the Rohingya crisis is to reach out all levels of civilian and military leadership in Myanmar and allow them to reap the benefits of Bangladesh economy¹¹.

At the end of the day, image of brand Bangladesh matters us a lot than anything else. Pacifism, standing for the just cause,respecting international laws,territorial integrity of others and passive resistance not only help maintaining high moral ground but also make strong brand Bangladesh. Housing millions of stateless people does not weaken Bangladesh. Rather it strengthens its image and influence.

Notes And References:

1 “Amra Rohingyader Nagarik Odhikar Shikar Kori(We Recognize Rohingyas' Right To Citizenship)”,Ashfaq Roni,Shafiqul Alam and Altaf Parvez,Daily Prothom Alo,January, 02,2022

2 “UN Rights Envoy Calls For Global Efforts To Cut Fund Flow For Myanmar Military Junta”,bdnews24.com,December 19,2021 Link here

3 “Tse Che Lop: Alleged Asian Drug Lord Arrested In Amsterdam”,BBC,January 24,2021,Link here

4 “UNODC Report And Meth Market Of Bangladesh “,Rezaul Hoque, https://hoquestake.blogspot.com ,July 25,2019 Link here

5 “Mro People Protest ‘Hill-Land Grabbing' For 5-Star Hotel,Tourist Spot “,Daily Star,November 09,2020,Link here

6 “Las Vegas Soho Boro Boro Shohore Sikdar Group Er Bipul Sompod(Sikder Group Perks Wealth In Las Vegas And Other Cities)”,Daily Prothom Alo,June 09,2020,Link here

7 “Singapore Aat Hajar Koti Taka'r Malik Me?(Who Is The Owner Of $1 Billion In Singapore?) ”,Bangladesh Protidin,November 28,2020,Link here

8 “Summit’s Aziz 34th Richest In Singapore:Forbes",Daily Star,August 16,2018,Link here

9 “Don’t Discard Tatmadaw”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,November 24,2019Link here

10 “Rohingyader Jatigoto Shodhoner Pokkhe Bishwa Bank?(World Bank For Ethnic Cleansing Of The Rohingyas?)”,Towhid Hossain,Daily Prothom Alo,August 12,2021.

11“What’s In A Name?”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,August 15,2021,Link here

UNODC Report & Meth Market of Bangladesh

United Nations Office On Drugs And Crime brought out its report, “Transnational Organized Crime In Southeast Asia : Evolution, Growth and Impact”, on organized  crime and clandestine trade in Southeast Asia. The report also highlighted the methamphetamine market of Bangladesh.  As per UNODC, the illicit methamphetamine market is worth between $30.3 billion to $ 61.4 billion.

For ease of comprehension, I use the term "meth" to indicate both forms of methamphetamine-- yaba and crystal methamphetamine---in this post.  Though not being part of this region, meth market of Bangladesh is estimated to be $5.5 billion. UN made this estimation based on the number of drug users and average consumption of drug by an user.

Most worrying matter is 12 countries of South East Asia reported meth as their "primary drug of concern".  Meth is widely marketed in rich countries like China, Japan,Singapore, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.Since Chinese authority clamps down on illicit meth trade and destroys meth lab facilities across the country, meth manufacturers find sanctuary in neighboring countries and particularly in Myanmar and set up meth labs across Myanmar. Northern Rakhine, a conflict zone, has witnessed a surge in meth production facility in recent years.

Key findings of this report are:

1. Southeast Asian countries seized  highest amount of meth (all kinds) in 2018 , which is also the highest seizure in the last 5 years and it was estimated to be 120 MT.
2. Organized criminal groups frequently use the unregulated casinos to launder and whiten drug money. As China took a tougher stance on this kind of casinos, owners shifted their operations in  Cambodia, Myanmar and Philippines.  In Cambodia around 100 casinos were set up in the last five years.
3. Ingredients of meth, or "precursor drugs", and lab equipment are being smuggled or exported to Myanmar from neighboring countries like China, India, Laos, Thailand and Bangladesh. Organized crime groups often used the legal businesses to smuggle the ingredients. 
4. Organized criminals groups widely use the courier service and e-commerce  to market crystal meth in countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. in addition, tea packages are increasingly being used to distribute crystal meth in these countries.
5. Land for opium cultivation inside Myanmar is declining. Shan and Kachin state are the regions where this cultivation takes place. Currently, 9% of the opium land lies in Kachin State However no change of poppy harvest has been reported in  Kachin state. It is important to note that Kachin separatists have alliance with rebel group of Rakhine. Recently, meth factories have scattered across North Rakhine.

UNODC estimates shows that size of Bangladesh meth market stands at $5.5 billion, as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile in China the meth market is estimated to be $10.3 billion and in Australia and New Zealand it is estimated to be $11.1 billion. Despite being a small economy, Bangladesh meth market is less than half  the size of China's market and half the size of combined Australia and New Zealand's market. A better comparison will be found if meth market is compared with GDP, export and import. I did this comparison. According to my estimates, meth market of Bangladesh is 1.75 % of Bangladesh's GDP, 13.41 percent of export and 11.95 percent of import.But in China it is 0.072% of its GDP , in Australia and New Zealand it is 0.65 % of combined GDP, in ASEAN it is 0.85% of the GDP and  in South Korea and Japan it is  0.13 % of combined GDP.

(Data Source: UNODC, Wikipedia,ASEAN)

Now I would like to put forward some of my observations:


1. Role of unregulated casinos has been highlighted in this report. Part of  the hacked reserve money of Bangladesh Bank melted in one such casino,where Macau based operators had strong footprints, in Philippines. In recent years, law enforcement agencies detained huge quantities of narcotics and gold. It is highly likely that smuggling groups hurt by such seizure might involve in Bangladesh Bank reserve money hacking.

2. The report disclosed that meth making equipment and  ingredients like ephedrine, pseudo-ephedrine, 1-phenyl-2-propanone, phenylacetic acid, 2-bromo-1-phenyl-1-propanone and thionyl chloride were smuggled to Myanmar from neighboring countries like China, Cambodia, Thailand, India and Bangladesh.

It is worthwhile to mention that local customs, based on a tip off from UK,  seized liquid cocaine mixed with sunflower oil at Chattogram. After the UNODC report it is crystal clear that this kind of illicit consignment is transited through Bangladesh. It is also an inkling that transnational organized crime group have strong presence in this country. In addition to ingredients, movement of meth processing savvy experts were also detected. For instance , Malaysian authority detained two Taiwanese for being "roving chemist" of meth lab.

3. In that report United Nations also observed that wide spread corruption among public officials played a key role in human trafficking in this region. There is no iota of lie in it in the case of Bangladesh. In Thailand, a serving Thai General was sent to prison for human trafficking charges. However, no high profile detention has been made in Bangladesh in connection with human trafficking.

4. Another kind of amphetamine is captagon, which is high in demand in Middle East. It sells between $5 and $20 apiece there. An investigative news report divulged that it is a money making machine for armed groups and ISIS in Syria. Its size and price draw attention of such groups. It cannot be ruled out that such terror outfit is operating such illicit trade in this part of the world.

ISIS purported acts of terror in Bangladesh , Sri Lanka and Philippines. Philippines and Bangladesh witness surge in meth user and trade. Highest seizure of heroine in the history of Sri Lanka was originated from Bangladesh.


After this UN report, it is pretty evident that meth has enveloped Bangladesh. Free season of human and drug traffickers in this country is attributed to the nonchalance stance of our influential quarter.  Money laundering and smuggling of meth ingredients from Bangladesh insinuate that this kind of illicit commerce has been  going on in disguise of legal  external trade  for a long time. Unless Bangladesh takes stern and rapid steps to address this issue, neighbors like ASEAN countries may play deaf to its pleas on resolving more serious issue.

Stick To Bilateral Agreement

Two months away from the rainy season, relocation of part of the camp-dwelling Rohingyas looms in uncertainties. Earlier government planned to relocate some of the Rohingyas to Bhashan Char. However, it flinched on that as many Rohingyas are not ready to move there.

Elliptical relocation plan is still gaining momentum. But some crucial aspects are still missing. For instance, it is not interpolated in the original plan how the education of Rohingya children will happen in Bhashan Char and how to ensure free movement between the camps in Bhashan Char and those in Cox's Bazaar.

Obviously government has plan to carry forward projects on educating the Rohingyas. But observers like me do not see any educational infrastructure in Bhashan Char. If the cyclone shelters are meant for this purpose then government should divulge the matter to the public. Who will teach the Rohingyas in Bhashan Char? Does government have plan for that?

I think Bangladesh may goad on Myanmar to send some teachers so that the Rohingya children can get education in Burmese language. No matter on which sides of the border they will reside educated Rohingyas will be true asset for both the countries.

The accommodation in that area is for the Rohongyas. Camp area is environed by embankments to prevent high tides. No other infrastructure is spotted that could indicate humanitarian and aid organizations could stay there to continue their operations. Even outside teachers need to travel to and fro between Bhashan Char and other parts of Chattogram once a week.

So this free movement of goods and people needs to be addresses in the Bhasan Char Relocation plan. It is not clear what transportation system is going to be introduced there. Traditional sea truck, engine boats and vessels operated by Bangladesh Navy could be good options. Private sector never essayed the waterway to this little known shoal. I bet many donor agencies will espouse any genuine government initiative to install a transport system in this waterway.

As the uncertainties regarding the esoteric relocation plan looms large, there have been reports that Rohingyas are clearing the nearby forests for makeshift camps, causing further irritation to local population and administration. Grave concern is how long the hosting population will countenance conducts of contumacious camp dwellers.

Meanwhile, latest developments in the Rakhine State insinuate that the region is sucked into a secessionist maelstrom and both the feuding parties incurring heavy losses. This might encourage some quarters within the government to eschew the bilateral agreement it signed with the Myanmar government. It would be a mistake. I think we should stick to this plan. Oriental solution is the key to this problem. Other alternatives may prolong the crisis.

Many here loathe what the Tatmadaw did to the Rohingya population. Certainly these atrocities must not go unpunished. But there are international bodies who usually look into this kind of war crimes. Let Tatmadaw and international bodies hold the culprits accountable. But at any cost Bangladesh should not drag its feet into the internal turbulence of Myanmar. We have to keep it in mind Tatmadaw is running the country for a long period of time. It is the only monolithic organization in Myanmar that is capable of keeping the country stable. Despite several insurgencies on multiple fronts, its leverage on Myanmar and its people has not been compromised since it assumed power. Democracy is still in the embryonic stage and will not flourish without the support of Tatmadaw. And the truth is Tatmadaw is a unified organization. One can do a little research and find that number of defection is far higher in Bangladesh Armed forces than that in Tatmadaw. No mutiny has taken place in Tatmadaw in the last one decade. It is a disciplined organization, steered by a strong leadership.

This reality about Myanmar has already been understood by its neighbors who face similar problems like Banglades in dealing with Myanmar.

Recently, Bertil Linter in his report titled "The Real Driving Force Behind Myanmar's Opium Trade" , published on Asia Times, revealed that a UN agency for drugs and crimes , UNODC, did a survey on narcotics in Myanmar and found that most of the poppy cultivation took place in areas where Kachin Independence Army holds sway. KIA , however,put the blame on Tatmadaw-backed militia. What I find interesting is that none of them attacks these cash cows.

In one of my earlier post on Bangladesh's anti drug war, I put forward one interesting observation: both Bangladesh Army and KIA use Type-81 rifle as their standard issued rifle. In Bangladesh it is known as BD-08, which is being manufactured at state-run armaments production facility. KIA, a strategic ally of Arakan Army, might get the know-how from former PLA personnel. But this could be a mere coincidence. At the same time, yaba invasion from Myanmar lends credence to such suspicion. Recently, Bangladesh Army floated tender to issue new standard rifle along with BD-08. What prompted the Army to issue a new standard rifle surprised many observers.

Splintered or destabilized Myanmar is not to the best interest of Bangladesh. Imagine a worst case scenario where Myanmar has fallen into the hands of several insurgent groups. A fight for dominance will soon be ensued and Bangladesh may host another wave of refugees. In unruly Myanmar, its waters will become treacherous. Incidents of piracy may spiral up in the waters through which Bangladesh does maritime trade with rest of the world. Net result is our export and import will take a hit and inflationary pressure may make lives hard here. Clearly our policy makers and strategic thinkers are not ready for this kind of reality.

Bangladesh should take cue from Myanmar's formidable neighbors who maintain good relations with civil and military leadership in spite of being victims of demographic and drug invasion. For instance, Thailand houses millions of Myanmar refugees and fought a long drug war, worsened by Myanmar. Yet it made some kind of deal with Myanmar and significantly reduced the incidence of drug related problems. The country even awarded Myanmar's Chief of Army Staff its highest civilian award when he paid an official visit to Thailand last year.

Resisting the temptation to steps that may escalate tension, Bangladesh can replicate Myanmar neighbors' model to create a thaw in relations with it.

Reaching out to all levels of civil and military leadership in Myanmar will also set the path for resolving outstanding issues. We can invite Myanmar businessmen to invest in one of our special economic zones and allow Myanmar nationals to bank with our financial institutions. A retired Army officer who knows well how this kind of regime works in democratic transition period could be sent as High Commissioner to Myanmar to convey these messages.These initiatives will not only have profound implications for bilateral relations but for the region. By making them stakeholders of our economy, we will be able to make them understand the gravity of drug problem. Eventually they may go for dismantling the drug infrastructure along the Bangladesh border.

This idea of thawing relations may meet expostulations from certain quarters who hold animus towards Myanmar. But this one-to-one agreement with the help of oriental supports holds the key to a prosperous future for both the countries. It is indeed a good sign that we inked a deal with Myanmar to resolve the Rohingya issue. And we should stick to this plan till the end.