La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(29 juillet --- 5 août)

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
30	Pain tchapati,Pommes de terre bhaji,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Bombay duck,Cumin noir, Graines du jacquier et cravates sec,Pommes de terre bhaji, Lentilles bhaji	Riz,Œuf dur,Bombay duck	Jacquier,Firny,Dattes,Thé sans sucre
31	Pain tchapati,Firni(rice pudding),Thé sans sucre	Riz,Purée de pommes de terre,Épinard malabar,Papaye bhaji,Labra(Citrouille et graines du jacquier),Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Purée de pommes de terre,Épinard malabar,Papaye bhaji,Labra(Citrouille et graines du jacquier)	Dattes,Thé sans sucre
01	Pain tchapati,Labra(Citrouilles et graines du jacquiet,Omelette,Thé sans sucre	Khichury,Œuf dur	Riz,Omelette, Soupe aux lentilles, Lait	Dattes,Thé sans sucre
02	Pain tchapati,Omelette,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Hilsa,Papaye bhaji,Soupe aux lentilles	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaye bhaji,Lait	Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
03	Pain tchapati,Papaye bhaji,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Hilsa,Purée de pommes de terre,Courge amère	Riz,omelette,Courge amère,Soupe aux lentilles	Dattes,Thé sans sucre
04	Pain tchapati,Omelette,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Labra(Papaye,graines du jacquier),Pommes de terre,Courge amère	Riz,Labra(Papaye,graines du jacquier),Pommes de terre	Riz gonflé,Lait,Thé sans sucre
05	Pain tchapati,Labra(Papaye-graines du jacquier),Thé sans sucre	Riz,Gourde serpente,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz,Gourde serpente,Soupe aux lentilles	Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre

IMF Assistance & Gradualism

Central Bank picks gradualist policy, To fight inflation and stabilize the currency. Past management and sources of tax Expose economy’s hidden cracks.

Last week, International Monetary Fund formally disclosed that Bangladesh sought assistance from it. $4.5 billion worth assistance package may come from several fund facilities offered by the IMF. This is for the first time Bangladesh sought assistance from Sustainability and Resilience trust fund ,reserved for mitigating adverse challenges posed by climate-change,apart from Balance of Paymey support fund¹.Earlier Finance minister had stressed that Bangladesh would not take loan from IMF if the conditions were not favorable.

Unprecedented inflationary pressure with rising import bills worsened by Ukraine war and record current account deficit prompted the government to seek such assistance. Though government projected the inflation rate below 7.5%,NGOs apprehend the inflation may cross the double digit figure, incapacitating further the cash-strapped government’s ability to spend.

Prior to IMF announcement, govt raised the policy rate by 50 points basis, raising the interest rate to 5.5 %. This will eventually curb the money flow,easing the inflation. The latest MPS also envisages to encourage import substitution industry through incentives.

As the policy rate is increased, lending rate of commercial banks should be raised accordingly. But govt is reluctant to raise the lending rate and willing to maintain the ongoing 3% spread between deposit rate and lending rate. Even a 1% increase in deposit rate will not offset the inflationary pressure. Moreover, ahead of election year when the government is poised to carry through projects that will create jobs,any increase in lending rate will be greeted with bitter reactions.

In key export markets of Bangladesh(USA,Canada,EU), central banks raised policy rates. This insinuates consumption in these countries may shrink in future, resulting in fewer orders. In addition, rising defense spending in these countries cuts spending on other sectors. That poses serious doubts about further obtaining assistance and funds for humanitarian grounds. Not only that domestic companies' borrowing from overseas also gets costlier.So it could be another stumbling block for the local industries that eye for foreign credit.

Falling demand in Occidental countries and rising interest rate is expected to improve current account deficit by reducing the import bill. But to stop Taka's depreciation, govt needs to do more. Bangladesh inked several strategic agreements with Middle Eastern countries. Why does Bangladesh not approach these countries to do some favors in this critical time? Bangladesh could propose them to accept Taka in exchange of oil or to defer the oil payments by half a year or a year at a discounted exchange rate. Similarly, Bangladesh could make request to other friendly countries to trade with Bangladesh in Taka. This growing demand for Taka could at least peg the Taka at some fixed value against major currencies.

Govt's past record in utilizing climate fund is not good. Anti corruption bodies published detail accounts about this. Luckily ,central bank is responsible for using the credit this time. But government is implementing the budget, so mismanagement of budget support fund still looms large.

Bangladesh’s internal revenue generation still hinges on indirect taxes. Tobacco and telecommunications are the key sources of indirect tax revenue². Without increasing the tax revenue, this IMF support may come less handy at the end of the day. Public credit growth outweighs the private sector credit growth. Private sector is struggling to get credit. In this backdrop,how the government could attain MPS goal of employment generation through import substitution industry is indeed a puzzling one.

Notes And References:

1. “IMF says It Is Ready To Support Bangladesh After Loan Request”, Business Standard, July 27,2022. For more read at https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/imf-says-it-ready-support-bangladesh-after-loan-request-466422
2. “Dosh Company Dilo Chollish Percent VAT(10 Companies Account For 40% VAT Payments)”,Jahangir Shah,Prothom Alo(P-13),July 27,2022

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(15 juillet --- 22 juillet)

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
23	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Courge amère,Omelette,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Haricot vert,Bombay Duck,Soupe des lentilles	Pain chapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Haricot vert	Mangue,Nouilles,Thé sans sucre
24	Pain chapati,Haricot vert,Lait chaud,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Rita poisson,Gourde épineuse avec graines du jacquier et tige de l'amarante	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson	Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
25	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Tige de l'amarante avec pommes de terre et gourde épineuse,Poisson-barbe d'argent olive,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Cumin noir	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Papaye-Gourde épineuse,Cornichon à la Mangue	Riz gonflé, Thé sans sucre
26	Pain tchapati,Papaye et Gourde épineuse,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Calebasse gourde,Feuilles de l'amarante tige,Poisson perche grimpante	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante tige,Poisson perche grimpante	Mabolo,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre,Dattes
27	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde calebasse, Omelette,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinard malabar,Perche grimpante	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Épinard malabar et Ruhi poisson,Lait et datte	Dattes,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
28	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Omelette,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Courge amère,Poisson-barbe d'olive argent	Pain tchapati,Poisson-barbe d'olive argent,Lait	Mabolo,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre,Dattes
29	Pain tchapati(fait par moi), Omelette,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Citrouilles, Soupe aux lentilles,alose à Gésier du fleuve Ganges,	Riz,Pommes de terre bhaji,alose à Gésier du fleuve Ganges	Jacquier,Firny,Thé sans sucre

Weak Passport Belies Success III

Green passport earns a bad name As Bangladeshis get the blame In Canada for soaring house price. Henley index lays bare the development lies.

Henley strong passport index has downgraded Bangladesh by one notch from its January ranking. In the latest passport index,Bangldesh is ranked 104th,behind Sri Lanka¹. Soon after the latest index, South Africa has made changes in visa regulations applicable for Bangladeshis and Pakistanis after some nationals of the two countries without visa had been detained by South African authority for entering Lesotho,Swaziland using South African airports. From August 1,Bangladeshis and Pakistanis require transit Visas to enter these countries, which give Bangladeshis Visa free entry². In April, Bangladeshi passport occupied 103 rd position among 116 countries for 2021 in Henley Strong Passport Index [This piece is just an extension to the piece I wrote April 09 this year]. In 2020, it held the same position. Despite the improvement from 108 to 103 in recent years, Bangladeshi passport remains one of the weakest passport (9th) in the world³. Meanwhile, corona, internal turbulence and war made many counties' score bad. So the improvement is not an improvement at all. In the meantime, US imposed sanctions on RAB and several security establishment officials for deterioration in law and order situation.[In April] Canada postponed its second home program, nationality through purchase of house, for two years as property prices soar up unprecedentedly because of foreign nationals' house buying spree in that country⁴.

Back in October last year I penned “Weak Passport Belies Success “ to highlight Henley’s then ranking of Bangladesh⁵. Sharing it again:

The weakening of our passport has been going on for the last seven years. In 2013,our passport was ranked at 85 in Henley Passport Index(HPI). In 2017,the green passport was slides down by 10 places. In 2019,its rank worsened further to 99.In 2020, it was ranked 101st. Perhaps not all the countries are buying our success stories⁸.

Recently, European Union published a list of asylum seekers in EU where they entered illegally by crossing the Mediterranean Sea. Bangladesh ranked second in the list.

This week Lafarge Holcim cement announced that it would sell its operations in Bangladesh.⁶

E-commerce debacle left a serious blot on reputation of the government. One after another e-commerce platform that follows multilevel marketing model failed to meet customers’ need and many simply swindled money. What could have been the success story of govt's digital economy turned out to be an embarrassing point for the government.

It has been reported that government might have avoided this incident had it been stricter to malpractices.

Meanwhile, remittances shows a downward spiral following a remarkable growth last year.

In September 2021-22,Bangladesh received remittances worth $1726.29 million whereas the sum was $2171.03 million in May this year⁷However, rising oil price could break the downward spiral as construction boom may resume in the Middle Eastern countries, riding on the high oil price.

Back in April this year,I wrote a piece titled “Falling Ranking,Fading Identity” in the wake of unrevised HPI. I would like to share some part of it again:

“Education is the area where we fall behind our neighbors. In Global Knowledge Index, Bangladesh held the lowest rank in South Asia. Its position was 112th among 138 countries.Even Pakistan and Nepal were placed ahead of us (Source: Daily Star, December 12 , 2020).

In Innovation Index, Bangladesh was far behind than its South Asian neighbors. Among the 131 economies, Bangladesh occupied 116th position. It perched on that position for three consecutive years (Source: The Financial Express, September 14, 2020).

In recent years, school drop out rate, number of child marriage have also increased. I cannot figure out how we can continue our achievements in economic and development sectors with such a sorry state in education and innovation.

What complicated the matter is the presence of three different streams of education. A greater section of the population are not at the same wavelength while reading a particular event or situation and are not behaving in the right way at a crucial occasion or circumstances.

Our 14 years of schooling is not as good as others. It is casting a shadow over our overseas development markets. In middle eastern countries where our nationals mostly took up the jobs of housemaid, drivers, agricultural workers etc , Bangladeshis find themselves in awkward situation for failing to communicate in a proper manner. It is affecting their livelihoods there. Many even fall victims to deception and cheating. In Kuwait a Bangladeshi MP in connivance with Kuwaiti officials ran a human trafficking network. Thousands of Bangladeshis were lured into their traps, losing millions of Taka and risking their lives. The issue remains a sore point in the relationship between two countries and engenders overseas employment of Bangladesh in Kuwait.

Reuters last year carried a report divulging dilapidated conditions of stranded Bangladeshis , victims of human trafficking, in Bosnian jungles.

Like those cheated Bangladeshis abroad, state of our health sector does not vouch safe for our economic success story. COVID-19 laid bare the anarchy going on in this sector. Fake screening program ran by some politically-blessed quarter alarmed us about quality of our health professionals. Poorly equipped hospitals and dearth of health professionals brought us foreign grant and support in thick and fast. To our dismay, we watched that oxygen system and 300 ventilators bought with foreign credit were locked in warehouses of Dhaka International Airport for ten months. They are meant to equip the public hospitals. Meanwhile, deteriorating condition at home led to ban flights towards countries from where most of our remittances come.

With great enthusiasm and effort, Bangladesh implements infrastructure and development projects, very few turn out to be beneficial in the end. However, same vigor and enthusiasm are not displayed while creating social institutions that aim to develop human resources at the grassroot level. Tribal nature of our politics , tendency to set a yeoman at every organization are widely seen as encumbrance to developing such institution. For the last three decades, a moribund growth has been being observed on institutions that work on youth, discrimination, literacy,digital divide, communal harmony,folklore,hygiene,rural-urban migration, inclusion of new technology, charity, music and culture. These institutions in the past played key roles in churning out quality nationals. It does not mean they have to depend on foreign fund for their operations. Community, individual and government should step in so that they can function without any trouble. COVID-19 bluntly laid it bare that our health system is not working and one fine morning we will discover, to our surprise, that our country becomes an unlivable prison. And HPI and QNI may coshare positions with other doomed countries.”⁸

Notes And References:

1. “Dokshin Africae Notun Niyam: Transit Visa Lagbe Bangladeshider(Change In Regulations In South Africa: Bangladeshis Require Transit Visa)”, Jamuna News,July 22,2022. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_WHOp6u25E0
2. “Bangladeshi Passport Again 9th Weakest In World”, Dhaka Tribune, July 20,2022. https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2022/07/20/bangladesh-passport-again-ninth-weakest-in-world
3. “Bangladesh Ranks 103rd In Henley Passport Index2022”, Dhaka Tribune,April 04,2022. For more read at https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2022/01/12/bangladesh-ranks-103rd-in-henley-passport-index-2022
4. “Videshider Kacchey Bari Bikri Bondho Korechhey Justin Trudeau'r Saraker(Canada: Trudeau Govt Halts Sale Of House To Foreigners”,BBC Bangla,April 07,2022. For more read at https://www.bbc.com/bengali/news-61028973
5. “Weak Passport Belies Success”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,October 09,2021. For more read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2021/10/weak-passport-belies-success.html?m=1
6. “Bangladesh Theke Babsha Gutiye Nichhey Lafarge HolCim(Lafarge Winds Down Bangladesh Operations)”,Sylhet Today 24,October 06,2021.For more read at https://www.sylhettoday24.news/news/details/Sylhet/125786?fbclid=IwAR07pXwOgCNECDjcN9NLpKVipVlTk52NR6VUGwNlqmHyz6aVWlFr89rzGhk
7. Bangladesh Bank.
8. “Falling Ranking,Fading Identity “,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com.April 19,2021.For more read at https://hoquestake.blogspot.com/2021/04/falling-ranking-fading-identity.html?m=1

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(15 juillet --- 22 juillet)

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
16	Pain tchapati,Papaye-Carotte-Haricot vert-Farine de maïs,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards du buffle, Ruhi poisson avec pommes de terre,Citrouilles-Papaye-Graines du jacquier,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Papaya-Graines du jacquier- Citrouilles	Riz gonflé,Goyavier,Thé sans sucre
17	Pain tchapati,Pomme de terre,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Haricot vert et Graines du jacquier avec sec Bummalo poisson,Ruhi poisson,Gourde calebasse curry,Soupe aux haricots mungo	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Vermicelles	Riz gonflé,Vermicelles,Thé sans sucre
18	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde calebasse, Lait,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Citrouille,Épinards d'eau,Ruhi poisson,Soupe des lentilles	Nouilles	Goyavier,Concombre,Vermicelles,Riz gonflé
19	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Ruhi poisson,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Amarante rouge,Haricot vert et pommes de terre,Orphie de l'eau douce	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Haricot vert et pommes de terre	Riz gonflé,Arachides,Thé sans sucre
20	Pain tchapati,Haricot vert et Pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Orphie de l'eau douce	Tchapati pain(fait par moi),Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Ruhi poisson	Lait,Riz gonflé,Dattes
21	Pain tchapati,Papaye-Citrouille,Lait, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Œuf dur,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge,Gombo	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Œuf dur,Feuilles de l'amarante rouge	Dattes,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
22	Pain tchapati,Gombo,Lait et Datte,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards d'eau,Perche grimpante,Soupe des lentilles	Parota(fait par moi),Épinards d'eau et Perche grimpante	Datte,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre

CA Deficit: How Worst It Could Be

High oil price and dollar-euro parity Cause a hole in macro stability.

Events in Sri Lanka and the record current account deficit have pressed the panic button in Bangladesh. Despite repeated claims from the govt, rising fuel and commodity prices in the international market may further worsen the current account deficit. Last week,Bangladesh govt started a negotiation with IMF for a total credit of $4.5 billion for the next 3 years as budget assistance. Argument put forward for taking such a credit is that it bears low interest and it can be availed now before things turn into worse like Sri Lanka.

Despite a record inflow of remittances($900 million approx) in the week of Eid-ul-Azha,things have not improved much. Dollar market is still volatile and Bangladesh Bank regularly intervenes by selling US dollar. Current account deficit now stands at $15 billion. Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) requires a subsidy of $2 billion to meet the import need of gas and oil. Bangladesh’s export destinations are mired in crisis. Increase in US policy rates may curb the inflation in United States, but investment in US may take a hit, further worsening the job prospect in US and casting a shadow over export order.Former IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff anticipates a covid recovery in China may push up again the price of oil in international market¹. If it happens,then there may be another blow to the inflation situation,tightening the consumer pockets of US consumer. In Europe, fall of euro against US dollar (appreciation of dollar against euro due to rise in policy rate in US) means our exporters will get less Taka against the same volume of exports to Europe. In addition, recession in Europe is more likely as investors would prefer America over Europe due to higher return on dollar there. And Europe will lose its competitiveness due to dollar euro parity and rising inflation at home. New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman fears the war in Ukraine may prolong to the winter as it is the best alternative for Russia to get some favorable outcome from this war². Due to gas supply uncertainty, Europeans have to ration their available supply in this winter.Rising cost at home and harsh winter may push NATO to influence Ukraine to cut a compromising deal with Russia. That means a prolonged war in Europe coupled with rising oil prices cast shadow over our export earnings. As fuel prices may be higher,our import spending may also be higher. This means our Taka may depreciate further. And remember next year(end) is the election year. Years during,before and after election generally witness big depreciation (see table)³.

Year	Exch.Rate(TK/$)
1990-91	35.67
1991-92	38.15
1995-96	40.84
1996-97	42.70
2000-01	53.96
2001-02	57.44
2008-09	68.80
2009-10	69.18

Source:Bangladesh Economic Review 2019

As Monsoon is not over ,govt fears further flood across the country by August. If it happens, then it will have further pressure on food security programs,prompting government to increase its spending on food import.Moreover,rising oil price also means we have to increase spending on irrigation during winter. So falling remittances, rising import expenditures may further worsen our current account deficit.

Notes And References

1. “Global Oil And Gas Prices Have Been Highly Volatile--- What Will Happen Next?”,Kenneth Rogoff,July 5,2022,The Guardian. For more read https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/05/global-oil-gas-prices-supply-demand-us-europe
2. “Ukraine War Is About To Enter A Dangerous Phase”,Thomas L. Friedman,July 12,2022,New York Times. For more read at https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/ukraine-russia-putin.html
3. Bangladesh Economic Review 2019

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(09 juillet---15 juillet)

Ma Semaine Gastronomique

Date	Petit-déjeuner	Déjeuner	Dîner	Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
09	Pain tchapati,Gourde serpent et concombre,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards malabar,Tête de Ruhi poisson dans soupe aux haricots mungo et pommes de terre,Anchois gangétique	Riz,Épinards malabar,Tête de Ruhi poisson dans soupe aux haricots mungo et pommes de terre,Anchois gangétique	Mangue,Thé sans sucre
10	Pain,Papaye et pommes de terre,Mangue, Thé sans sucre	Khichri,Omelette, Papaye et pomme de terre	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Lait sucré	Thé sans sucre, un bun(un type de pain que je n'ai pas réussi à faire )
11	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Œuf poché, Papaye et pommes de terre,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Purée de pommes de terre,Rita poisson	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson	Thé sans sucre
12	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Rita poisson,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Rita poisson,Papaye-Gourde épineuse,Purée des pommes de terre,Poulet,Soupe des lentilles	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde épineuse avec Papaye	Riz battu dans lait avec Mangue et Aloe Vera,Riz gonflé,Thé sans sucre
13	Pain tchapati,Papaye et Gourde épineuse,Thé sans sucre	Riz,Gourde calebasse,Épinards du buffle,Rita poisson	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Épinards du buffle et Rita poisson	Riz gonflé,Nouilles
14	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Gourde calebasse, Thé sans sucre	Riz,Épinards d'eau,Gourde calebasse, Luffa,Wallagu attu poisson	Pain chapati(fait par moi),Wallagu attu	Riz gonflé et lait chaud,Thé sans sucre
15	Pain tchapati(fait par moi),Wallagu attu curry,Thé sans sucre	Pilaf,Papaye-Pommes de terre-Farine de maïs,Épinards malabar,Concombre,Œuf dur,Purée de pommes de terre	Pilaf,Papaye et haricot vert,Épinards malabar	Riz gonflé,Lait chaud,Thé sans sucre