Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux





(03 février --- 10 février)

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Ma Semaine Gastronomique
Date Petit déjeuner Déjeuner Dîner Snacks,Sucreries,Boissons et Fritures
04 Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur Riz,Purée de pomme de terre et haricots,Soupe aux lentilles,Feuilles de fenugrec Riz,Purée de pomme de terre et haricots ,Soupe aux lentilles Patate douce
05 Pain tchapati,Omelette Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Tomate Paratha(fait par moi),Chou-fleur Nouilles
06 Pain tchapati,Omelette --- --- ---
07 Pain tchapati,Chou-fleur Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Pois chiches Paratha(fait par moi),Œuf dur,Purée de pomme de terre Pois chiches
08 Pain tchapati,Œuf dur Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou, Pois chiches,Pomme de terre,Ruhi,Feuilles de gourde calebasse Paratha(fait par moi),Ruhi ---
09 Pain tchapati,Chou,Œuf dur Riz,Soupe à tomate, Chou, Purée de pomme de terre,Ruhi Paratha(fait par moi),Purée de pomme de terre ---
10 Pain tchapati,Omelette Riz,Soupe aux lentilles, Chou-fleur, Purée de pomme de terre, Paratha(fait par moi),Chou-fleur ---

Saturday, May 14, 2022

What Does Wild Fall Of Taka Portend?

Wild fall of Taka causing worries,
Most blame goes to deferred LCs.
Before and after election year,
Gathers abroad illicit capital sheer.

The rapid fall of Taka against major currencies has become headlines recently.Central Bank is selling dollar at Tk 86.70.However, at the exchange market US dollar is selling at TK 93. This rapid depreciation of Taka has been reported to be caused by rising commodity prices,settlement of deferred Letter of Credits, lack of foreign tourists, and rising trade deficit1.

Government even issued notice banning unnecessary travel of the bureaucrats. But I think bureaucrats’ visit abroad and lack of tourists are poor reasons attributed to wild fall of Taka.The two represent a miniscule part of demand for dollar. The ban came at a time when a minister and her relatives’ visit to another country drew lot of flak in the press. Later, minister claimed that she paid her own expenses and never relied on public money for meeting the expenses. So govt's ban is a diversion to pass the blame to others.

Unease of the govt is compounded by falling remittances, which earlier offset trade deficit and made a current account surplus. In addition, medium and long term debt commitment has also increased, but as percentage of export earnings it is still below 25%(as per my calculation).Along with Occidental multilateral institutions, which are more generous towards Bangladesh, Russian and Chinese credit repayments do not pose serious problem for the moment. Loan repayments of Russian credit line would start from 2023 and some social media put the annual payment somewhere between $565 million. The Ban on Russia and Russian decision to repay the credit in local currency would not cause pressure on US dollar demand. However, such ban could increase dollar demand if US dollar payment could take place in disguise of legitimate international trade via other friendly countries. It is hard to trace such trade payment, so it is better not to embark on such speculation.

So the single reason stands out among others is the deferred LC payment. Most of the LCs opened for importing capital machinery, raw-materials,cooking oil and grains2.Rising commodity prices also raised the import expenditure and it is causing the depreciation of Taka. Now here comes another point that we are missing. 2022 is the year before the election scheduled to be held in 2023. Years before and after the election generally witness illicit financial outflow through trade misinvoice. Bout of skirmishes and deteriorating law and order sow panic and lack of trust on domestic system among some quarters. Panic mongers work as sales executive of places where illicit capital finds safe sanctuary.

In an embarrassing report in 2017,Global Financial Integrity (GFI) revealed worrying accounts of illicit financial flow from Bangladesh between 2009 and 2015 with an average flow of $ 8.8 billion. The mismatches between declared value of goods on the invoices and true value of goods were reported to be $5.2 billion in 2008, $6.9 billion in 2010,$8.8 billion in 2011,$7.65 billion in 2012,$9.35 billion in 2013 and $11.92 billion in 2015 3.As US places sanctions on some personnel of law enforcement agencies for violating human rights, many are under spell of panic. In addition, retribution in politics looms large. Political situation in neighboring countries makes that threat more credible. So exists there a perfect ground for clandestine capital flight through trade anomalies.

However, Canada postponed its residency permit through purchase of flat for two years. But our RMG items are being regularly exported to Canada. And recently one Canadian minister expressed desire to export cooking oil to Bangladesh. So ample means are there to channel out the money.Moreover, Turkey recently opened 2nd-home program like Malaysia. UAE is also running similar campaign.

Two or three quarters later a picture may emerge about the volume of illicit flow. As it happened in the past, this speculation---illegal money transfer through trade data anomalies---may have some roots and may be a reason for depreciation of Taka that is widely ignored.

This depreciation of Taka will work as instrument to curb further import as import is going to be costly. Meanwhile, govt is going to receive another $250 million of ADB’s budget support pretty soon,as reported by the press. Hopefully, Taka will be hovering over some fixed figure for sometimes after that.

Notes And References:

1 “ Dollarer Bazar Osthir,Oshosti(Volatile Dollar Market, Causing Unease)”,Sanaullah Sakib,Daily Prothom Alo(page-1),May 12,2022.

2 “Bank O Khola Bazar E Dollarer Damer Parthokya 8 Taka Chhariyechhey( Difference Between Dollar Exchange Rate At Bank And That Prevails In Market Crosses Taka 8)”,Sanaullah Sakib, Daily Prothom Alo(page-01),May 13,2022.

3 “Bangladesh Lost $50 Billion To Trade Related Illicit Financial Flows In Six Years: Report”,bdnews24.com,December 17, 2021.

Friday, January 14, 2022

La Semaine Dernière A Mes Yeux

(07 janvier---14 janvier)

Selon un reportage, accident dans la rue a tué 6284 dont 803 étudiants dans un an.Il y a une augmentation de 13%.

Selon un reportage, incendie a ravagé 1200 toits de chaume et a fait 30000 Rohingyas sans-abris dans un camp à Cox's Bazar.

Selon un reportage, le gouvernement a réintroduit mesures sanitaires à travers du pays puisque Omicron propageait rapidement au Bangladesh. 3500 personnes ont été détectées le jeudi.

Friday, September 3, 2021

Exit Globalization?

A departing plane and a falling footballer
Augur end of globalization?
Crackling guns and a crying interpreter
Challenge the champion’s reputation.

The scheduled but abrupt winding up of US mission from Afghanistan left many unanswered questions. One of them vies serious pondering: Does this augur end of globalization? More particularly the concept of globalization that was relentlessly advocated and disseminated across the world by Occidental countries. A novel idea of a deeply connected world where liberal policies of the governments will create an open and less controlled environment so that individuals, enterprises will thrive. A global village where technologies will bring positive changes and make easy lives and livelihoods. A world where societies will accept customs, cultures of others and enrich themselves and come together to solve problems. A world where factors of production and ideas will travel freely.

Shaken and undermined is that concept of globalization. An overspent war and image of falling of a footballer,aspired to make his country proud in the international arena,nailed that idea of globalization. Crisis ,natural or engineered, pushed this idea towards the current state. Brexit could be the perfect first visible sign of that decay. Growing nationalism---fuelled by income gap in the rural and urban community and worsened in the UK by global financial crisis---and widening gap between richer EU countries and southern ones spiked the immigration crisis that molded the opinions of 52% of the British voters to leave UK. In addition,a growing UK contribution to EU (reached $10 in 2018) also played a crucial role to severe British link with the EU.1 & 2

A NATO partner Turkey’s accession to EU could also be viewed as growing rift in the closely knitted countries of Europe,the shining example of interconnected countries. Seams appear to come out over the crisis of Cyprus. Cracks further widened during Turkey’s commissioning of S-400 system into its armed forces,costing it getting the F-35. No one witnesses a growing surge in illegal immigration in Occidental countries in recent decade. Intertwined link between global trade and contraband strengthened the organized criminal groups across the world. Citizens of war-ravaged,stateless people and poorly governed countries have become pawns of strategic ideologues who wanted to prove that globalization is not a two-way track.While Americans pay the Latin American countries to stall the flow of USA-bound illegal immigration, EU countries cut deals with Turkey,Maghreb and Libyan authority to contain the flow of EU-bound Syrian, Afghan,African and Asian refugees. In Bangladesh, authority is losing trust on the Western allies as they keep insisting on long-term plan of Rohingya refugee management instead of facilitating the repatriation process. Bitter Bangladesh turned down American request of hosting few batches of Afghan refugees. And Pakistan’s response was more reprimanding: “Do Americans need us only to clear their mess in Afghanistan?”

Pandemic also put into test the spirit of Globalization. While richer countries stockpiling vaccines, poorer ones pleaded to make some concession on intellectual rights of the vaccines. Many African countries,on the other hand,refused to use vaccines donated by other countries. As America stopped shipping vital ingredients to India to manufacture vaccines citing a law that requires that domestic urgency reign over export, BJP-led government in India was criticized at home and in the neighborhood for failing to deliver vaccines to the states and neighboring countries in time.3 Even the CEO of Serum Institute ,the company responsible for manufacturing and distributing the AstraZeneca vaccine in this part of the world, fled to UK and was invited to set up a plant there. Bangladesh,a country that had public facilities to manufacture vaccines prior to 80s,shut down public production facilities during the liberalization phase. Bangladesh’s frantic search for a vaccine did not get serious attention. Many citizens await second-dose of vaccine at home. When the vaccine made available: vaccine nationalization started to show its ugly color. As the multilateral donor agencies started lending to poorer countries to start mass vaccination, most of them exempted vaccines that do not have WHO approval. Russian Sputnik fell victim to such policy. Poorer countries like Bangladesh, Philippines opted for costly Chinese vaccines. While Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia,Kuwait made it clear foreign workers must have western vaccine, causing further woes to Corona-battered poor workers.

Like immigration, globalization has also failed to bring equity and justice in trade between North and South. Bangladesh has been exporting garments to the USA paying more tariff than any other countries. While industrial disasters in other partially closed countries like Vietnam and China often go unnoticed to the eyes of US authorities, Bangladesh,a dysfunctional democracy with media houses,faces all kinds of safety regulations to comply with the Western standards. Recently a new extension of such regulation pact has caused great unease among the exporters in the country. It comes at a moment when pandemic shut down many brand stores that regularly imported Bangladeshi garments.

In a globalized world, poorer countries faced uphill task to procure raw materials for industrial production and their development. Bangladesh procures junk ships to get scrap metal for meeting its steel and iron demands at home.

In the beginning of this year,a court in England says it clearly, from now onwards, a worker who suffered injuries while dismantling a ship owned by a British company will be eligible for compensation.

The UK court verdict casts some shadow too. As per EU ship recycling regulation, EU flag-carrying ships are being dismantled in EU-listed 26 yards from December 31,2018 in a bid to ensure greener and safer scraping (source: https://ec.europa.eu/info ).

None of the Bangladeshi yards are included in that list. As Britain unhooked itself from EU, it fell outside from that obligation. But this latest verdict will make British ship owners think twice before selling their old junks to Bangladeshi yards. Because in any bad event they have to pay huge fines and compensation. So they may prefer to sell their ships to third parties to shirk their responsibility. Or go for the EU-listed yards that are less prone to accidents.

Bangladeshi yards have been getting few or no old EU vessels to scrap from 2019. UK verdict now makes it harder to get old British vessels to scrap. Bad news for scrap metal and construction industry.4

Increased debt has often caused the debt-ridden countries to fall into the influence of undemocratic power in this globalized world. New multilateral lending institutions born in response to rigid stance of the ones based in the West.

Governance crisis deteriorated in recent years. There have been coups in Zimbabwe,in Mali,overthrown of government in Bolivia,assassination of president in Haiti,huge explosion in Lebanon unfolded the crisis of existence,brazen Turkish support for Azerbaijan in the conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh,and a pause on democracy for 2 years in Myanmar.Two mighty powerful neighbors have come close to start a war over a chunk of inhospitable terrain.Sophisticated algorithm and eavesdropping technology are being used to muzzle free voice and corner opposition. Farcical elections are more common than before. The need of a multilateral supervising authority has not been felt so dearly. In the wake of attack and counter attack on oil tankers in the Gulf,an Israeli official aptly captures the situation by saying to the press that there is no multilateral body whatsoever and it appears as if everyone is on their own.

Melting of $85 billion worth Afghan National Army and boasting of Western weaponry by the Talibans have made serious hole in Western military training and ability. Picture of pizza delivering Afghan communication minister in Germany reminded one the fate of former rulers---all living in the USA---of Caretaker govt of Bangladesh.But hapless plea of an Afghan interpreter running from one village to another for help put an end to ethical America that disseminated its image of an liberator and beacon of freedom and democracy.

But power should not come from barrel of the gun. If this is the case, then there may be eternal chaos. No one wants to set that precedent as it has serious repercussions for others. As long as people's and the weakest voices are not counted, stability and sustainability will remain out of reach.

From forming regional blocs to immigration policies, from free movement of factors of production to international financing, from bigger role of multilateral bodies to dispute resolution to governance, we are witnessing a low ebb in the concept of globalization. Biased side of globalization gets exposed when spirits of globalization is put into test. It may be easy to put this idea into challenges and take advantage of the fallouts in the short run but it is difficult to replace it or remodel with similar liberal values.

Notes And References:

1 “3 Reasons Brits Voted For Brexit”,John Mauldin,Forbes,July 15,2016Link here

2 “Causes Of The Vote In Favor Of Brexit”,WikipediaLink here

3. “US Embargo On Exporting Covid Vaccine Raw Materials And How It Could Impact India”,Simrin Sirur, The Print,April 21,2021Link here

4 “The Twist In Change”,Rezaul Hoque,https://hoquestake.blogspot.com,March 16,2019,Link here