Two months away from the rainy season, relocation of part of the camp-dwelling Rohingyas looms in uncertainties. Earlier government planned to relocate some of the Rohingyas to Bhashan Char. However, it flinched on that as many Rohingyas are not ready to move there.
Elliptical relocation plan is still gaining momentum. But some crucial aspects are still missing. For instance, it is not interpolated in the original plan how the education of Rohingya children will happen in Bhashan Char and how to ensure free movement between the camps in Bhashan Char and those in Cox's Bazaar.
Obviously government has plan to carry forward projects on educating the Rohingyas. But observers like me do not see any educational infrastructure in Bhashan Char. If the cyclone shelters are meant for this purpose then government should divulge the matter to the public. Who will teach the Rohingyas in Bhashan Char? Does government have plan for that?
I think Bangladesh may goad on Myanmar to send some teachers so that the Rohingya children can get education in Burmese language. No matter on which sides of the border they will reside educated Rohingyas will be true asset for both the countries.
The accommodation in that area is for the Rohongyas. Camp area is environed by embankments to prevent high tides. No other infrastructure is spotted that could indicate humanitarian and aid organizations could stay there to continue their operations. Even outside teachers need to travel to and fro between Bhashan Char and other parts of Chattogram once a week.
So this free movement of goods and people needs to be addresses in the Bhasan Char Relocation plan. It is not clear what transportation system is going to be introduced there. Traditional sea truck, engine boats and vessels operated by Bangladesh Navy could be good options. Private sector never essayed the waterway to this little known shoal. I bet many donor agencies will espouse any genuine government initiative to install a transport system in this waterway.
As the uncertainties regarding the esoteric relocation plan looms large, there have been reports that Rohingyas are clearing the nearby forests for makeshift camps, causing further irritation to local population and administration. Grave concern is how long the hosting population will countenance conducts of contumacious camp dwellers.
Meanwhile, latest developments in the Rakhine State insinuate that the region is sucked into a secessionist maelstrom and both the feuding parties incurring heavy losses. This might encourage some quarters within the government to eschew the bilateral agreement it signed with the Myanmar government. It would be a mistake. I think we should stick to this plan. Oriental solution is the key to this problem. Other alternatives may prolong the crisis.
Many here loathe what the Tatmadaw did to the Rohingya population. Certainly these atrocities must not go unpunished. But there are international bodies who usually look into this kind of war crimes. Let Tatmadaw and international bodies hold the culprits accountable. But at any cost Bangladesh should not drag its feet into the internal turbulence of Myanmar. We have to keep it in mind Tatmadaw is running the country for a long period of time. It is the only monolithic organization in Myanmar that is capable of keeping the country stable. Despite several insurgencies on multiple fronts, its leverage on Myanmar and its people has not been compromised since it assumed power. Democracy is still in the embryonic stage and will not flourish without the support of Tatmadaw. And the truth is Tatmadaw is a unified organization. One can do a little research and find that number of defection is far higher in Bangladesh Armed forces than that in Tatmadaw. No mutiny has taken place in Tatmadaw in the last one decade. It is a disciplined organization, steered by a strong leadership.
This reality about Myanmar has already been understood by its neighbors who face similar problems like Banglades in dealing with Myanmar.
Recently, Bertil Linter in his
report titled "The Real Driving Force Behind Myanmar's Opium Trade" , published on Asia Times, revealed that a UN agency for drugs and crimes , UNODC, did a survey on narcotics in Myanmar and found that most of the poppy cultivation took place in areas where Kachin Independence Army holds sway. KIA , however,put the blame on Tatmadaw-backed militia. What I find interesting is that none of them attacks these cash cows.
In one of my earlier post on Bangladesh's anti drug war, I put forward one interesting observation: both Bangladesh Army and KIA use
Type-81 rifle as their standard issued rifle. In Bangladesh it is known as BD-08, which is being manufactured at state-run armaments production facility. KIA, a strategic ally of Arakan Army, might get the know-how from former PLA personnel. But this could be a mere coincidence. At the same time, yaba invasion from Myanmar lends credence to such suspicion. Recently, Bangladesh Army floated tender to issue new standard rifle along with BD-08. What prompted the Army to issue a new standard rifle surprised many observers.
Splintered or destabilized Myanmar is not to the best interest of Bangladesh. Imagine a worst case scenario where Myanmar has fallen into the hands of several insurgent groups. A fight for dominance will soon be ensued and Bangladesh may host another wave of refugees. In unruly Myanmar, its waters will become treacherous. Incidents of piracy may spiral up in the waters through which Bangladesh does maritime trade with rest of the world. Net result is our export and import will take a hit and inflationary pressure may make lives hard here. Clearly our policy makers and strategic thinkers are not ready for this kind of reality.
Bangladesh should take cue from Myanmar's formidable neighbors who maintain good relations with civil and military leadership in spite of being victims of demographic and drug invasion. For instance, Thailand houses millions of Myanmar refugees and fought a long drug war, worsened by Myanmar. Yet it made some kind of deal with Myanmar and significantly reduced the incidence of drug related problems. The country even awarded Myanmar's Chief of Army Staff its highest civilian award when he paid an official visit to Thailand last year.
Resisting the temptation to steps that may escalate tension, Bangladesh can replicate Myanmar neighbors' model to create a thaw in relations with it.
Reaching out to all levels of civil and military leadership in Myanmar will also set the path for resolving outstanding issues. We can invite Myanmar businessmen to invest in one of our special economic zones and allow Myanmar nationals to bank with our financial institutions. A retired Army officer who knows well how this kind of regime works in democratic transition period could be sent as High Commissioner to Myanmar to convey these messages.These initiatives will not only have profound implications for bilateral relations but for the region. By making them stakeholders of our economy, we will be able to make them understand the gravity of drug problem. Eventually they may go for dismantling the drug infrastructure along the Bangladesh border.
This idea of thawing relations may meet expostulations from certain quarters who hold animus towards Myanmar. But this one-to-one agreement with the help of oriental supports holds the key to a prosperous future for both the countries. It is indeed a good sign that we inked a deal with Myanmar to resolve the Rohingya issue. And we should stick to this plan till the end.